Note that you might be able to take a position on the Dow Jones on other websites.
US Stock Market Analysis and Trading News
[11:05am] A strong report from Facebook overnight is settling some nerves brought on by falling oil prices and a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
This is helping US markets towards a mixed open on Thursday ahead of earnings from tech heavyweights Google and Amazon.
The US labour market is strong so that was never an issue for this Federal Reserve statement but referring to economic expansion as 'solid' was an upgrade from 'moderate' used at the last meeting and indicates the Fed's belief that the US economy would be capable of withstanding a rate-hike this year.
The Fed did acknowledge inflation in the US could come down further but again took a hawkish stance towards it by dismissing it as transitory because it is caused by lower energy prices.
The only significant dovish addition to the statement was a reference to 'international developments' which implies Fed policy could be impacted by deteriorating economic conditions in Europe, China, Japan and Russia.
Facebook Beats Expectations
Facebook earnings beat on the top and bottom line and metrics used to judge user engagement and mobile usage all came in ahead of expectations.
Facebook shares could still open lower despite the strong results as the major concern of higher expenditure outpacing revenue growth was shown to be valid.
Facebook made some major purchases in 2014 so 2015 looks like the year it will spend money integrating and marketing them so it may be 2016 before investors enjoy the results.
The report on Amazon earnings is expected to continue an ongoing theme for the company as visionary founder and CEO Jeff Bezos focuses more on expansion that profits.
Revenues have been expanding rapidly but so has expenditure resulting in negative income growth.
With all the growth potential stemming from its massive R&D spend; shares may just need the growth in expenses to slow down to spark a recovery.
Google Shareholders Hope to See Diverse Earnings
Google shares have been under pressure heading into Thursday's earnings report after a series of analyst downgrades.
Google has not been able to make the same transition to ad revenue earnings from mobile that Facebook has and remains very reliant on desktop search ad sales.
Evidence that revenue is coming from more diverse sources including YouTube, Google Play and mobile search will be well received.
With $62bn in cash at last count there is an outside chance Google could begin paying a dividend which could prove very popular with income-hungry investors in the current low yield environment.
Shares in McDonalds are expected to open higher after the departure of its CEO Don Thompson.
Futures suggest that the S&P 500 will open unchanged at 2,002, with the Dow Jones expected to open 33 points higher at 17,224 and the NASDAQ 3 points lower at 4,137.
Update by Jasper Lawler, Market Analyst,
[10:22am] We are expecting the Dow Jones to open 10 points higher at 17,200, after the Federal Reserve's statement last night.
Traders are pencilling in June for a rate rise from the US central bank, but if energy prices remain weak it could be pushed further out.
The US recovery is going to plan, but the Fed's decision will be influenced by factors outside its control.
Update by David Madden, Market Analyst,
Hawkish FOMC Minutes Sees US Stocks Drop
With US firms starting to complain about a stronger dollar, a more hawkish than expected FOMC statement has seen the Dow Jones slump and the dollar gain.
USD/JPY continues to consolidate around ¥117.36 despite a boost for the dollar against other major currencies.
Update by Craig Inglis, Head of Product Development,
Dow Jones Daily Report
The Dow Jones is currently trading at 17,242.
Overnight, the market closed down -281pts (-1.61%) at 17,183.
30 Minute Chart Analysis
The stock market is higher than the 20 period MA of 17,215.1 and lower than the 50 period MA of 17,331.9.
1 Day Chart Analysis
The stock market is lower than the 20 DMA of 17,547.8 and lower than the 50 DMA of 17,678.0.
Update by Gordon Childs, Editor,
[7:37am] Dow Jones Technical Analysis (30 mins chart)
Dow Jones pivot point: 17290
Our preference: Short @ 17142 with targets @ 16885 & 16760 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 17290 look for further upside with 17490 & 17630 as targets.
Comment: The immediate trend remains down and the momentum is strong.
[7:34am] US indices dropped on Wednesday pressured by shares in the Energy, Banks and Diversified Financials sectors.
The S&P 500 (2002.16) remains below its 20 DMA (2034.3 - negative slope), and 50 DMA (2046.3 - flat slope). Watch today FOMC rate decision.
European markets are expected to open on a negative note.
[7:34am] American Shares - Crossing Over their 50 Day Moving Average:
Apple (AAPL +5.65% to $115.31)
Juniper Networks (JNPR +3.76% to $22.65)
American Shares - Crossing Under their 50 Day Moving Average:
American Tower (AMT -1.5% to $98.88)
Anadarko Petroleum (APC -4.2% to $79.18)
Apache (APA -5.37% to $61.12)
Baker Hughes (BHI -3.95% to $56.95)
Chesapeake Energy (CHK -5.53% to $19.13)
Cincinnati Financial (CINF -1.69% to $51.32)
CME Group (CME -2.52% to $85.17)
Comcast (CMCSA -3.13% to $54.59)
Danaher (DHR -2.11% to $82.85)
Devon Energy (DVN -5.91% to $58.43)
DuPont (DD -2.01% to $71.71)
E*Trade (ETFC -2.68% to $23.22)
Ecolab (ECL -2.72% to $103.58)
EOG Resources (EOG -5.27% to $88.1)
Express Scripts (ESRX -2.06% to $81.95)
General Motors (GM -1.74% to $32.84)
Host Hotels & Resorts (HST -2% to $23.5)
Interpublic Group (IPG -3% to $19.75)
Legg Mason (LM -2.37% to $53.5)
Leucadia National (LUK -3.81% to $22.75)
Marriott International (MAR -2.18% to $76.9)
McGraw Hill Financial (MHFI -2.57% to $89.04)
Move Inc (NWSA -2.01% to $15.14)
Mylan (MYL -1.87% to $55.24)
Oracle (ORCL -1.64% to $42.69)
Pall (PLL -2.02% to $97.3)
Paychex (PAYX -1.66% to $46.875)
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD -6.81% to $144.55)
PPG Industries (PPG -1.87% to $221.74)
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN -1.86% to $408)
Symantec (SYMC -2.18% to $25.375)
Travelers Companies (TRV -1.39% to $104.58)
Tyson Foods (TSN -2.14% to $40.18)
Walt Disney (DIS -1.38% to $92.67)
XL Group (XL -1.93% to $34.98)
[6:33am] Fed Remains Upbeat but there is Concern Over Inflation
As far as last night's Fed meeting is concerned there wasn't that much to report, nonetheless, as you would expect investors drew differing conclusions from last night's decision and subsequent statement.
It is most certainly true that the Federal Reserve did sound more upbeat about the state of the US economy, noting the strong job gains and improving labour market.
More importantly, unlike the December statement, the decision was unanimous, not altogether surprising given that none of the three dissenters kept their votes this year.
On the surface this rather upbeat assessment of the economy would appear to keep the prospect of a June rate rise on the table, and the rebound in the US dollar would appear to support that conclusion.
However, dig a little deeper into the statement and there did appear to be a slight concern about inflation, with the committee noting that inflation expectations had declined substantially in recent months, while later on acknowledging that inflation is expected to decline further.
Given that the Fed has an inflation mandate to go with its employment mandate this would suggest that again the prospect of a rate rise in June remains uncertain, and this assessment did appear to be reflected in the bond market, usually a much more accurate barometer of future interest rate expectations.
Update by Michael Hewson, Senior Market Analyst,
[6:15am] European equities are set to open lower following last night's FOMC statement.
The Federal Reserve updated its assessment of US economic growth to 'solid', after describing it as 'moderate' in December, while for improvement in the employment sector they substituted 'strong' for 'solid'.
However, there was no real change in the language of the statement or the stance that they remain patient on raising interest rates.
Unfortunately, this sent US markets into a tail spin, with the Dow Jones dropping 270 points to 17,185, because, for traders who are now addicted to accommodative monetary policy, even 'patience' looks hawkish.
With concerns over slowing growth and deflation seeing a host of central banks either cut interest rates already this year or allude to the possibility that they might, it was hoped that the Fed may have loosened their timeline.
However, the Fed's commitment to begin normalising rates at some point is enough to get traders heading for the exit; without central bank morphine, it seems that the pain is just too great.
Maintaining the dovish tone and applauding US expansion, the Fed spurred renewed interest in the dollar.
Update by Jonathan Sudaria, Market Dealer,
[4:22am] The Dow Jones futures market closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady-to-lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral-to-bullish signalling that sideways-to-higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
[3:58pm] Those looking for someone to blame for the sell off can find a number of possible targets this afternoon.
The picture had already been clouded by Microsoft's figures last night, but sentiment took a further knock as durable goods orders slumped, with grave ramifications for US growth numbers for the final quarter.
Improvements in consumer confidence and new home sales were nothing compared to this unpleasant surprise.
Meanwhile the distinctly underwhelming tone of earnings season got worse with a big miss on earnings from Caterpillar and a deterioration in Procter & Gamble's numbers as well.
The World Bank's warning from just two weeks ago looks very prescient now, as a hitherto strong performance from the US begins to weaken.
The world can ill afford Uncle Sam catching a cold.
Update by Chris Beauchamp, Market Analyst,
[3:48pm] US Stock Markets
It was not just the snow storm in New York sending the shivers down the spines of US investors on Tuesday after a big miss in durable goods orders and disappointing company earnings sent major indices dropping like stones.
Caterpillar alone took 30 points off the Dow Jones industrial Average which opened 300 points lower after reporting earnings before the open that missed already lowered expectations.
A big drop-off in oil services capex sent Durable Goods further into reverse in December while consumer confidence painted a very different picture flying to 102.9 from 93.1 the prior month.
Microsoft had already set the stage for disappointment overnight after it offered a weaker outlook for its software business.
Update by Jasper Lawler, Market Analyst,
[3:11pm] Procter & Gamble, Du Pont and Caterpillar all missed targets today to continue this poor US earnings season, with many arguing the stronger dollar has harmed overseas business.
This misery was joined by worse than expected durable orders figures; the best consumer confidence figure since August 2007 was a rare bright spot on an otherwise gloomy day for the US.
Ahead of an important FOMC statement tomorrow, today has further dented the argument for the Fed raising US interest rates this year.
There are now rumours of a rate hike in March 2016, a far cry from the earlier date some were clamouring for at the end of 2014.
Syriza Forms 'Provocative' Cabinet
Syriza is already delivering on some of its promises by streamlining the Greek government to a 10-minister cabinet.
Provocative finance and foreign minister appointments showed that, for now, Syriza are not going to back down from the radical reforms the party want to see in Greece, even if this sets them on a collision course with the ECB, the IMF and the European Commission.
With Moody's stating the Greek election result is credit negative as it prolongs risk, that term looks like it will define Europe's 2015.
The string of uncertain European elections continues with a testy Presidential race in Italy on Thursday, and a UK general election only 100 days away, yet no clearer in its outcome.
As the DAX retraced its steps away from its resistance level, the stream of volatility inducing appointments leaking out of Greece caused the Eurozone indices to haemorrhage points as Tuesday continued.
The FTSE spent the afternoon at a loss as it struggled to overcome the Afren saga and GDP disappointments of this morning.
With Afren now approaching a share prices decline of 60%, this continued to have a knock on effect for the energy-sector as a whole, despite Brent crude's recovery of its $48 per barrel level.
With little in the way of significant data for the rest of the week, the FTSE will have to look elsewhere if it wants to reverse this retreat.
Update by Connor Campbell, Financial Analyst,
[10:22am] A lower outlook for PC software sales at Microsoft is expected to send shares lower at the open and act as a drag on US markets.
The Fed is starting its two-day meeting ahead of earnings from tech giants Apple and Yahoo! after the close.
Microsoft beat earnings estimates and announced a share buyback scheme of $30bn which is larger than previous years although perhaps not quite as aggressive as some had called for, but it was the outlook on software that will do the damage.
Software-licensing is Microsoft's largest source of revenue which had a boost from a PC upgrade cycle resulting from the end of the company's support for the Windows XP operating system.
As that cycle ends, CEO Satya Nadella who has now been in the job one year needs to accelerate the move into cloud-based services to make up the deficit.
Apple Set to See Chinese Sales Exceed those in the US
After the close, Apple will announce its fourth quarter and holiday sales results which include sales numbers for its latest handsets the iPhone 6 and 6 plus which are expected to take the company closer to overtaking Samsung as the largest global seller of smartphones.
Expectations have risen steadily since Apple issued guidance in the third quarter and so merely meeting the guided numbers could prove a disappointment for many.
The expectations for Apple this quarter have risen for a reason, the iPhone 6 has proven very popular with sales in China expected to outstrip the US for the first time.
Apple shares hit the highest level in 2015 on Monday having found a floor around $105 so should earnings do the job, a re-test of all-time highs just shy of $120 appears to be on the cards.
Yahoo! to Detail Plan for Alibaba Proceeds
Plans for how to use the billions of dollars in proceeds from Alibaba share sales as well as the handling of tax on the sales will be main points of interest in the fourth quarter earnings report from Yahoo!
Sharp profit declines are expected but the company has huge potential if the funds from Alibaba can be used to redirect the business into more profitable territory.
Blogging site Tumblr and Yahoo's latest acquisition of video ad service BrightRoll are already steps in the right direction and if integrated properly with Yahoo!'s exiting infrastructure can be big ad revenue contributors in 2015.
Yahoo! shares hit the lowest since November on January 16 but have since rebounded from below $46 to just shy of $50.
Should Yahoo! shares close above $50 after earnings are reported tomorrow that opens up another run at the highs above $52 .
Futures suggest that the S&P 500 will open 4 points lower at 2,053, with the Dow Jones expected to open 48 points lower at 17,630 and the NASDAQ 13 points lower at 4,262.
A spreads account would also let you speculate on short-term daily Dow Jones markets. Users should note that accounts are normally subject to suitability, credit and status checks.
Should your application be approved then you can log on and study the charts and the current prices. These are normally free. Having said that, you might get the occasional sales letter or email from the spread trading company.
Of course, if you do trade then, before starting, you should note that CFD trading and financial spread trading carry a high degree of risk to your funds and can result in losses that are greater than your initial investment.
Advanced Charts for the Dow Jones
Although charting software/packages can vary across the industry, to help your analysis of the Dow Jones, they often come with useful tools like:
Drawing features and options e.g. Trendlines, Fibonacci Arcs, Fans and Time Zones
Different display options e.g. candlestick charts and bar charts
A host of different time periods e.g. 1 minute, 3 minute, 5 minute, 15 minute, 1 hour, 1 day etc.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, often referred to as the Dow, Dow 30 or Dow Jones, is one of the world's most well known markets.
The Dow represents a selection of thirty of the biggest American public companies. It's used to measure the performance of these corporations whilst also reflecting the state of the American economy and, to a degree, the world economy.
In spread betting and CFD trading, rather than being called the Dow, Dow Jones or Dow 30 it is often called 'Wall Street' or the 'US 30'.
Dow Jones Spread Betting: Firms with High Share Prices are the Most Important
If you want to profit from trading the FTSE 100, the biggest corporations are the most important. Because of the way the FTSE 100 index is weighted, movements in the share prices of the largest corporations affect the FTSE 100 index more than price movements in the shares of smaller companies.
However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is not 'price weighted'. This means that a one point increase or decrease by any share in the index will have the same effect as a one point increase or decrease of any other share.
As of April 2012, share prices on the DJIA range from around $8-9 (Bank of America and Alcoa) to almost $210 (IBM).
So, a 10% shift in IBM's share price (around $21) would account for a large movement in the Dow Jones index (around 160 points).
However, a 10% shift in Bank of America's share price (around $0.90) would only lead to a very small change in the Dow Jones (around 7 points). This isn't because IBM is a bigger corporation, it is because IBM's share price is much higher.
The other high value shares to watch out for in the Dow Jones are, as of April 2012, Caterpillar, Chevron and McDonalds.
Dow Jones Stock Market Index: Different Trading Times
The Dow is based on Wall Street however, not all 30 companies that make up the DJIA are based on America's East coast.
So, when the Dow Jones opens for trading, the value is determined only by the relatively few companies that open first. The opening price on the Dow will therefore always be close to the previous day's closing price.
As a result, the Dow Jones will never accurately reflect the true opening prices of all its companies.
If you are looking to trade on the Dow Jones, you need to be very careful when you open your position. Whilst the FTSE 100 might 'hit the ground running' with all companies opening at the same time, the Dow Jones doesn't work in the same way. Investors should monitor opening and closing prices so they can be confident of opening a position at the right time.
Dow Jones Spread Betting: Know the Shares
One of the advantages of trading the Dow Jones is that there are only 30 corporations in the index. Therefore it's easier to keep an eye on each of the component companies and what's happening to their share price.
Some traders believe that it is good practice to have a number of shares that you regularly follow. The aim of this is to get to know these shares and become familiar with their price movements.
Keeping tabs on all FTSE 100 companies is tough, it's hard to know exactly what is happening to all the shares at any given time. However, watching 30 Dow Jones stocks is more manageable. You can get to know each company's typical share movements and that can help you forecast where the Dow Jones will head next.
Speculating on the stock market always comes with a degree of risk. However, if you would like to use a Demo Account, that allows you to practice spread betting on a wide range of markets, please see below for further details.
When you think about which investment option is right for you, don't forget that, in the UK, financial spread betting is currently tax free*.
If you are trying to find a low cost financial spread betting website then keep in mind that you can trade the Dow Jones without having to pay any commissions or brokers' fees through companies such as:
Each of the spread betting companies listed above offer a Test Account which lets users apply a range of trading orders, test new trading ideas and review stock market charts.
How to Spread Bet on the Dow Jones?
As with a wide variety of financial markets, investors can spread bet on indices, like the Dow Jones, to either rise or fall.
If you go to the Financial Spreads platform, you can see that they have priced the Dow Jones Rolling Daily market at 13343.0 - 13345.0. This means that an investor could put a spread bet on the Dow Jones index:
Moving above 13345.0, or
Moving below 13343.0
When you spread bet on the Dow Jones index you trade in £x per point, where a point is one point of the index itself. As a result, if you invested £4 per point and the Dow Jones moves 26 points then that would be a difference to your profit/loss of £104. £4 per point x 26 points = £104.
Rolling Daily Indices Markets
This is a Rolling Daily Market which means that there is no set settlement date for this market. You do not have to close your position, should it still be open at the end of the trading day, it simply rolls over to the next trading day.
If you do let your position roll over into the next day and are spread betting on the market to:
Go higher - then you are charged a small overnight financing fee, or
Go lower - then a small payment is normally credited to your account
Now, if you think about the spread of 13343.0 - 13345.0 and assume that:
You have analysed the indices markets, and
You think that the Dow Jones index will increase and move above 13345.0
Then you may go long of the market at 13345.0 and invest, for example, £5 per point.
Therefore, with this trade you make a profit of £5 for every point that the Dow Jones index moves higher than 13345.0. However, it also means you will lose £5 for every point that the Dow Jones market moves below 13345.0.
Considering this from another angle, if you were to buy a spread bet then your P&L is worked out by taking the difference between the final price of the market and the initial price you bought the spread at. You then multiply that price difference by the stake.
Therefore, if after a few days the US stock market moved higher then you might think about closing your trade and guaranteeing your profits.
Taking this a step further, if the stock market did go up then the spread might change to 13380.4 - 13382.4. You would close your spread bet by selling at 13380.4. As a result, with the same £5 stake your profit would be calculated as:
P&L = (Closing Price - Initial Price) x stake
P&L = (13380.4 - 13345.0) x £5 per point stake
P&L = 35.4 x £5 per point stake
P&L = £177.00 profit
Trading the American stock market is not simple. In the above example, you had bet that the US index would rise. Of course, the stock market can fall.
If, contrary to your expectations, the Dow Jones fell, then you might decide to close your trade to stop any further losses.
So if the spread pulled back to 13313.1 - 13315.1 you would close your position by selling at 13313.1. This would result in a loss of:
P&L = (Closing Price - Initial Price) x stake
P&L = (13313.1 - 13345.0) x £5 per point stake
P&L = -31.9 x £5 per point stake
P&L = -£159.50 loss
Note - Dow Jones Rolling Daily spread quoted as of 11-Sep-12.
How to Trade Dow Futures
Looking at a site like InterTrader, we can see they are currently offering the Dow Jones December Futures market at 13408 - 13414. This means an investor could speculate on the Dow Jones index:
Closing above 13414, or
Closing below 13408
On the expiry date for this 'December' market, 21-Dec-12.
As with the daily market above, you trade the Dow Futures in £x per point. So if your stake is £5 per point and the Dow moves 27 points then that would make a difference to your profits (or losses) of £135. £5 per point x 27 points = £135.
Dow Jones Futures Trading Example
If we take the above spread of 13408 - 13414 and make the assumptions that:
You have done your analysis of the American futures market, and
Your analysis suggests the US index will settle above 13414 by 21-Dec-12
Then you could decide to buy the market at 13414 and risk, for the sake of argument, £2 per point.
With this contract you make a gain of £2 for every point that the US index moves higher than 13414. Nevertheless, you will make a loss of £2 for every point that the Dow Jones market goes lower than 13414.
Put another way, with spread trading, your profits (or losses) are worked out by taking the difference between the closing price of the market and the price you bought the market at. You then multiply that price difference by the stake.
So, if on the expiry date, the Dow Jones closed at 13488, then:
Profit / loss = (Closing Value - Opening Value) x stake
Profit / loss = (13488 - 13414) x £2 per point stake
Profit / loss = 74 x £2 per point stake
Profit / loss = £148 profit
Of course trading the American stock market futures is rarely that straightforward. In the above example, you wanted the Dow to rise. Of course, the stock market index could fall.
If the futures had fallen and settled at 13334 on the expiry date, then you would end up losing this trade.
Profit / loss = (Closing Value - Opening Value) x stake
Profit / loss = (13334 - 13414) x £2 per point stake
Profit / loss = -80 x £2 per point stake
Profit / loss = -£160 loss
Note - Dow Jones December Futures market taken as of 27-Sep-12.
Risk Management: Spread Betting on the US Stock Market with a Stop Loss
You can put a limit on the size of your position to help reduce your potential losses without impacting your upside. You can also employ smaller stake sizes such as £1 per point or $1 per point.
Letís say you spread bet on the Dow to go up, with a £1 per point stake and attach a Stop Loss order to your trade. If the US stock market goes up by 120 points then you would make 120 points x £1 per point = £120.
You are also able to trade the markets in Euros and Dollars. If you want to trade in dollars then 120 points x $1 per point = $120.
Of course if the market went against you, dropping by say 90 points, then with a £1 stake you would lose 90 points x £1 per point = £90.
Obviously this would be a fairly poor start. However, with firms like Financial Spreads you can add a Stop Loss at let's say, 30 points.
If you were trading the Dow this would mean that your position would be closed if the US index moved against you by 30 points. Therefore, instead of losing £90, you'd only lose 30 points x £1 per point = £30.
However, assuming you correctly predicted the direction of the market, your upside would still be £120.
Note that Stop Losses are not guaranteed, if a market slips then your Stop Loss is closed out at the next traded price. If you donít want that risk then you can use a Guaranteed Stop Loss, these are guaranteed to close your trade even if the underlying market slips (gaps).
A number of firms like Financial Spreads, InterTrader and Capital Spreads automatically apply a Stop Loss to every trade. You can upgrade to a Guaranteed Stop Loss but that normally comes at a small premium (normally a wider spread).
'Dow Jones Spread Betting' edited by Jacob Wood, updated 29-Jan-15
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Dow Jones Spread Betting
Dow Jones financial spread betting guide with a price comparison and daily analysis. Plus live Dow Jones charts & prices, where to spread bet on the stock market index commission-free and... » read from top.