Crude Oil continues to fail around the $70-$72 mark and is not far off making its second close below its 20 day moving average.
This morning’s dollar strength is taking its effect on oil and gold. With the lack of impetus to renew buying and to push markets onwards the fresh highs are becoming a concern for the bulls.
Without any major move in either direction, it’s more sideways action for the time being (how original).
Commodities Spread Betting, 1 July 2009
Oil seesawed around the rejected $72 level once again. When we dipped back below $70 in the afternoon session most of the decline came in the hour after consumer confidence figures from the US came out worse than expected.
Commodities Spread Betting, 30 June 2009
Oil moved higher once again to the top of the trading range, just south of $72.
We have been here three times already in the last month, all to no avail. While I am not an oil bear I see no reason for this move higher to prove any more successful than the previous three.
Financial Spreads punters feel the same way with heavy selling on the off this morning when we were above $72.50.
The current price is around $71.75 after an initial pull back but we may see another attempt to break higher today as the US opens. If we fail to make headway there may be a sell off in the evening session as profit taking comes to the fore.
As with all the markets we need to see reasonable momentum to break out of the ranges, any weakening of resolve and “back we go” into the trading ranges.
Commodities Spread Betting, 29 June 2009
Punters who are patient and not too aggressive have been able to pick the trades quite simply in virtually all the major arenas especially in such favourites as Cable, FTSE, Crude Oil and the Dow. The ranges have almost become set in stone for all of these markets and the only problem is to avoid being the wrong way round when the break out finally arrives.
Price Update:
Brent Crude Oil (Aug) closed last week at $68.92
WTI Nymex / US Oil (Aug) closed last week at $69.16
Gold closed last week up $5.90 at $939.15 (up 0.63%)
Crude Oil’s return above $70 is pushing oil stocks higher this morning. The rise comes as a small surprise since Asian markets was muted after Japan released data showing that they are entrenched in their second deflationary environment in as many years.
Crude is like many of the markets which are at, or around, their highs and looking increasingly like they’re running out of steam.
Having said that, with volumes dwindling and the summer season in full flow we could continue this range bound trading across most assets classes.
Commodities Spread Betting, 25 June 2009
Gold and Oil have recovered some of the losses of earlier in the week now but the fact remains that there does not appear to be the kind of excess demand out there that would warrant a return to the highs once more.
Gold seems to have had its second play for the highs and while we are still within striking distance of the peaks it must be recognised that a physical asset, with no return, and which costs a considerable amount to hold is not exactly up to date with current electronic financial systems.
Wealth is held in computers not in bank vaults.
Commodities Spread Betting, 24 June 2009
Gold closed yesterday at $922.50.
Crude Oil made a recovery move from the weakness of Monday as the support at $66, observed in yesterday’s comment, proved too much to overcome.
We have the inventory data out of the States this afternoon and traders will be looking to flatten positions before this.
Look for some possible weakness in morning and early afternoon trade as the market is long at the moment. The real direction will probably occur later in the session.
Commodities Spread Betting, 23 June 2009
Crude Oil has retreated from the $72 level and is now back at $66.50 (August Brent).
There is some support at the $66 and $65 levels but it must be admitted that the current weakness has a good chance of creating its own momentum to lower prices.
The fact remains that there is not a dearth of the black stuff out there and any further weakness in the US and Western economies may well trigger a further sell off.
While we all talk about the new wave of demand out of the emerging economies a little piece of information might be instructive.
The reduction of Oil consumption in the US this year (some small percentage) is equivalent to the entire consumption by India. Even if the sub-continent doubled usage overnight it would not match the potential reductions of the major industrial nations.
Gold continues to weaken although there is support bang on the $920 level we are currently trading. As the Indices weaken it has been usual to see gold benefitting from the fear induced but this time we have seen only selling.
Has gold lost its sparkle? Probably not yet but with so many high yielding areas to invest in it remains the last port of call for many bar the extreme pessimist.
Commodities Spread Betting, 22 June 2009
Oil is back below $70 and for all the efforts to get is up to $75, it seems to have run out of steam for the time being.
The price of oil is very closely linked to equities at the moment with the markets almost mirroring each others moves. Technically crude look rather overbought, but with things looking increasingly unstable in Iran, any sign of continued unrest could lead to the next leg up for oil prices.
Price Update:
Brent Crude Oil (Jul) closed last week down -$1.73 at $69.19 (down -2.44%)
WTI Nymex / US Oil (Jul) closed last week down -$2.49 at $69.55 (down -3.46%)
Gold closed last week down -$9.25 at $933.25 (down -0.98%)
Oil continues to consolidate around the $70 dollar region (August Brent) with a push this morning up towards the $71.50 level.
Traders have had a couple of pops at forcing the price above $72 in the last week or so and a couple of goes at probing the sub $69 levels. All have been defeated seemingly with ease and in the rather dull atmosphere this morning it is difficult to see a break out today.
Gold closed yesterday at $939.40. A quick look at the 30 minute Gold Rolling Daily Candlestick chart from Financial Spreads shows that, so far, the metal has been trading in a fairly tight range all week.
Commodities Spread Betting, 18 June 2009
Gold closed yesterday at $936.50.
Crude Oil also matched the indecision with probes to the plus and negative side of the gain line with no very determinate conclusion.
As mentioned in previous comments there seems to be a resistance to any move above $72. Equally, there is little appetite to risk selling it lower.
With Iran a problem in the minds of forward planners, those who must secure delivery for future requirements against current liabilities (airlines, haulage etc), the temptation to avoid the risk of a sharp spike higher is hard to argue against.
There is room for a move towards the $66 level without threatening the trend higher and there is a definite support at $68.50 building up so there are targets for the bears.
For the bulls, there is still the very strong attraction of the $75-$76 region which is both the OPEC target and the old support/resistance from 2007.
Commodities Spread Betting, 17 June 2009
Gold closed yesterday at $928.35.
Crude Oil made a bid for higher prices yesterday as fears over Iran raised their head but in reality while there may be some local disturbance in Tehran as the two sides battle it out neither candidate (nor their supporters) is going to be so foolish as to damage the one revenue source of the country.
Brent crude is sitting above $70 quite comfortably but does not seem interested in prices much above $72 just for the moment. It would be a brave call to suggest that prices may fall from here given that the trend is definitely in the bull camp. However there is no compelling argument for prices much above $75 (the target mentioned many times in this comment as being the ultimate aim of OPEC). As I write the price is pushing above $71 but resistance at $71.25 may hold for a while.
Commodities Spread Betting, 16 June 2009
Gold closed yesterday at $938.90.
Brent crude oil is holding above $70 this morning although, in truth, it does look unconvincing.
The most positive aspect about the bull argument is that there has not been a ‘blow out’ day to the upside taking out the sellers and that there has been no even vague pressure on the trend line higher.
There is room for a move all the way to $67 without disturbing the equanimity of the longs but it must be admitted that oil consumption in the West continues to falter and that there is a concerted move to more efficient consumption.
The startling fact that the fall in US consumption over the last year equates to the entire consumption of India shows both how far India has to go AND how far the US could cut.
Commodities Spread Betting, 15 June 2009
Gold is falling in harmony with everything else this morning and this must be something of a disappointment for the ‘flight to quality’ merchants.
The weakness of the dollar has helped in recent weeks to send the precious metal higher but there is a distinct feeling that investors now have more important things to worry about than getting sucked into another yellow metal bubble.
Continued weakness in equity markets would, no doubt, bring back the value proponents but with too many longs in place above the $900 level the fear must be growing of another sharp reversal of fortunes.
August Nymex hit $73.90 on Thursday just shy of the $75 OPEC target but here, again, any reduction in economic expectation could hit prices drastically.
The market has had the longest bull move with no serious retracement since Jan/July last year and while we have consistently championed the $75 target for months it must be mentioned that there is now room for a bit of a fall.
Price Update:
Brent Crude Oil (Jul) closed last week up $2.58 at $70.92 (up 3.78%)
WTI Nymex / US Oil (Jul) closed last week up $3.60 at $72.04 (up 5.26%)
Gold closed last week down -$37.60 at $942.50 (down -3.84%)
It depends upon what you mean by free. If you're looking for a free Demo Account where you can practice spread trading see below.
Tax Free. If you are looking for a free spread betting platform then don't forget that in the UK spread betting is tax free*
You can also spread bet on Crude Oil, Gold and other Commodities commission free and with no brokers fees at:
Free Demo Account
If you're looking for a free Practice Account / Test Account where you can trial spread betting, including Commodities markets like Gold, then you can you can always try:
Each of the above currently offers a free demo account.
How to Spread Bet on Commodities?
As with many markets, you can spread bet on the future price of commodities, like Gold, to increase or decrease.
At the time of writing the Gold (December) market is $837.3 - $838.1 with FinancialSpreads.com. This market expires on 27-Nov-07.
Therefore you can spread bet on Gold settling:
Above $838.1 on 27-Nov-07, or
Below $837.3 on 27-Nov-07
With the Gold market, you trade in £x per tick, where a tick is $0.1 of Gold movement. Eg if your stake was £2 per tick and the Gold moves $1.2 then that would be a £24 difference to your profits (12 ticks x £2 per tick = £24).
Gold Spread Betting Example
Let's say, taking the above spread of $837.3 - $838.1, that after your market analysis you feel that Gold will rise above the $838.1 mark by 27-Nov-07.
Therefore you buy at $838.1 for a stake of £1 per tick.
If by the closing date of 27 Nov the market settles at $845.7. Then your profit and loss is worked out by taking the difference between the final price of $845.7 and the opening price of $838.1 and then multiplying that by the stake per tick.
Profit / loss = (($845.7 - $838.1) / $0.1) x £1 per tick stake.
(ie the forecast price of gold has increased by $7.6)
= ($7.6 / $0.1) x £1 per tick stake.
= £76 profit.
However if the market didn't move as predicted and had the Gold market decreased then you would have lost on this spread bet. Eg if the yellow metal settled at $827.9, then:
Loss = (($827.9 - $838.1) / $0.1) x £1 per tick stake.
= (-$10.2 / $0.1) x £1 per tick stake.
(ie the forecast price of gold has decreased by $10.2)
= -£102 loss.
Where can I Find Free Live Prices on Commodities?
If you want to access quick live market information then you could do worse than opening an account with a firm like Financial Spreads.
Also, you don't have to trade with them, if you just open an account (which is free to do) then their data is free. The catch? You'll get the odd email or letter from them. In the example below you can also see that their free charts are also useful.
As mentioned above, you can get free charts with spread betting companies like Financial Spreads.
You can alter the charts to see market data by the minute, by the hour, by the week etc, plus many other settings to help you analyse the charts.
As you can see the charts show how the market's are not perfect and how you can expect the prices to "gap".
FinancialSpreads.com also have another pretty handy tool in their free Demo account (mentioned above). You can open a Demo account and place demo trades whilst you practice with no risk or cost attached.
Where can I find Free Commodities Trading Platforms / Software?
Some of the trading firms offer software / trading platforms you have to download but most offer free web based platforms that allow easier access from home, the office and most other places with Internet Access.
The following also offer free live prices and charts:
Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Commodities Spread Betting' by DB, updated 02-Jul-09
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and you may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
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