Spread Betting on Forex
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Quick and simple answers to the most common Forex questions:
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Forex Spread Trading
A regular Forex spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Forex spread trading update, click here.
Forex Spread Trading, 18 Jan 08
FX markets remain peaceful with the Dollar and Pound continuing to recoup some of the recent losses. The Sterling/Yen cross is now hovering just below the 211.90 support/resistance at a spread of 211.16-211.24 having held well at 207.00 a few days ago. The volume support between 205.40 and 208.10 remains the biggest block to further weakness but the charts remain definitely on the sell side. The Japanese economy looks to be slipping into reverse once more which will do nothing to help the huge Government deficits but at least the country has a very healthy Trade surplus. With Yen five year money now below 1% once more it is very tempting for the Carry trade enthusiasts to get involved on a long term punt but we will probably need some signal that the Yens recent strength is abating before this becomes more of an influence on markets.
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Forex Spread Trading, 17 Jan 08
In the currency trading world the pound actually managed a bounce and rather nicely backed up my reading of the heavy volume support between 205.40 and 208.10. Although we did get as low as 207.00 the effort, this time at least, proved too much and we have now bounced back up to see a GBP / YEN spread of 210.90-210.98. We have had a couple of tries in the last few days to get above 212 which have failed both times and it looks like we could be stuck in the 208 to 212 (ish) range for the time being.
Cable has meandered around the $1.96 level for the last few days but this has been a result as the dollar finally managed something of a recovery versus the Euro yesterday meaning that the pound/euro cross fell below 0.75 once more. There seems to be some resistance to selling the pound below $1.9550 (and admittedly buying it above $1.9750) so punters will probably be trying to play the ranges this morning in an effort to take a few pips off the market.
The Euro managed to fall from over 1.4850 to 1.4600 yesterday (in just a 30 minute blast) vs the dollar which probably caught quite a few speculative longs on the hop! This kind of price reaction tends to put a brake on trends as traders become wary of pushing too far in fear of being caught the wrong way round again.
Forex Spread Trading, 16 Jan 08
What can you say about sterling? Yesterday the Europeans decided on some short covering and even a bit of outright buying which took Cable trading (GBP / USD) up to $1.9740 by late afternoon. Unfortunately the rest of the world was yet again in sharp disagreement and in late US trading the currency cross was pushed all the way back to below $1.96. Compounding this was the fact that the dollar itself weakened sharply against the Yen and Swiss franc.
Sterling/Yen is now down at 208.28-208.36 as support level after support level gives way. There is some volume support between 205.40 and 208.10 which may prove difficult to break through. However, the negative trend is now well set and as mentioned just a few days ago the bears will be looking for much lower levels than these.
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Forex Spread Trading, 15 Jan 08
Looking at the Forex markets, the pound continues to weaken in almost one way traffic. At some point the elastic band will decide that the Euro has gone too far and will snap back to some extent but at the moment the poor old pound appears to have few friends. As mentioned yesterday the GBP / JPY was approaching the 211.80 support level and the fear of even further falls if the level was breached. Today we are now down at 210.20-210.28 with many ‘carry trade’ longs now massively underwater. The fall against the Euro is even more spectacular as it did not start from a position of weakness (as the yen did) in the first place.
The Euro Sterling cross is now hovering at the 0.76 level (where there does seem to be some selling pressure at last) with the spread at £0.7588 - £0.7590. The Financial Spreads punters have been short of pounds for some time now but are now taking a few profits and lightening their positions.
Forex Spread Trading, 14 Jan 08
On the FX front the pound has found some strength from the woes in the US but this is merely relative as the Euro and Yen have strengthened even more. The pound is now yet again at an all time low versus the Euro at 0.7571-0.7573 and against the Yen is pushing at the old two year resistance level at 211.90 with the current GBP / Yen cross spread at 212.33-212.41. If we close under here it may open the market up for a move down (in the medium term) to the 186.50, the old support level from 2004/05.
Forex Spread Trading, 11 Jan 08
The pound recovered yesterday on the lack of rate cut to close up at 1.9630 having bounced very nicely off the support level mentioned yesterday at 1.9550, unfortunately the Far East was having none of it and in a rare 'outside of European time zone' move have smashed Sterling down to $1.9512-15 vs the dollar (a nine month low) 212.55-212.63 vs the yen (an 18 month low) and 1.3200-1.3204 vs the Euro (an all time low). Put that in your inflation pipe and smoke it! Retailers will be hammered on all fronts, falling customer spending power, rising energy and business rates and squeezed margins from imports. FX trading volumes remain very high but unfortunately much of it seems to be sterling bearish and the worse it gets the more negative become the analysts targets.
Forex Spread Trading, 10 Jan 08
Sterling returned to its lows (and more) yesterday as the prospect of lower rates, massive public and trade deficits and a slowing economy continue to weigh on its prospects. Against the dollar we are now down at the support level mentioned in yesterdays comment at $1.9550 having bounced, weakly, off it late yesterday afternoon. If we trade through here the bears will really get a 'bit of a horn on' as technically there is not much between here and the mid $1.80's (and with the BOE decision and the Trade deficit numbers out today who would bet against it?). On the Bull front the market has stopped at the support and history has shown that Cable makes a habit of playing the levels.
As I happen to be in France at the moment the fall of the pound versus the Euro in the last month makes for rather wince making reactions, on my part, to my wife's frequent shopping excursions. The current cross is at 1.3320-1.3323 a new all time low which means that everything is some 10% more expensive than last summer.
Forex Spread Trading, 9 Jan 08
FX markets look to be moribund once more with an attempt by the pound to move higher versus the dollar yesterday failing bang on the resistance of 1.9830 mentioned in yesterdays comment. The ensuing fall out from this move has taken us down to $1.9700 this morning with the early USD GBP forex spread at $1.9695-$1.9698. Support is at $1.9670 to $1.9650 which if broken would give bears hopes for a further move down to the major support around $1.9550. At the moment most long term commentators are looking for a slip all the way into the mid $1.80’s.
The Dollar/Yen market had another look at the top of the trading range at 109.75 this morning but is now drifting away at 109.57-109.59, still well up from yesterdays closing levels.
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Forex Spread Trading, 8 Jan 08
On the FX front the crosses are quite peaceful having tested both the bull and bear directions yesterday.
The yen continues to give up a little of its recent gains but it is difficult to see whether this is the end of the recent bull run just yet. The USD Yen spread is opening at around 109.28-109.30 with us well away from the low of Friday of 107.95. However the move higher appears to have run out of steam around the 109.60 level and so punters have started to come in on the sell side once more. Support is at 109.10 then 108.40 and the real biggy at around 107.35.
Sterling is recovering a bit in early action with markets trading at $1.9768-$1.9771 as Far East buying pulls the pound higher. We may see an attempt to get above $1.98 in early European action but there is solid resistance between $1.9780 and $1.9830.
Forex Spread Trading, 7 Jan 08
The Forex markets are showing little change on Fridays close with Sterling remaining on the lows versus the Dollar and Euro. The Yen has had a big run of it recently as the fear of rapid rate cuts in the US and UK have played havoc with long term currency strategies. Since Christmas the pound has fallen from just below the previously mentioned 230 resistance level to the current 214.80-214.91. With a drop of some 6% in just a few days there will be many harsh words in importing company boardrooms as uncovered exposure will prove very expensive indeed (who would be a finance director?). The cost of all those lovely technical gizmos/white goods/cheap clothing etc etc etc will be that much more expensive as the currency effect unwind.
Cable is at just under $1.9700 at $1.9692-$1.9695 and personally I am kicking myself as I have been bearish on the pound for quite some time but never pulled the trigger. The dire public and private finance situation coupled with an appalling current account deficit and a crumbling currency do not make for good reading for Sterling bulls.
Forex Spread Trading, 4 Jan 08
Cable continues to show signs of weakness. After a brief rally back above the $2 mark just before the New Year it has shed 1.5% back to $1.9700. Support is said to be around this level but technically new 5 month lows are being hit making for a weak pound. The dollar is a little stronger against the Euro as well this morning. However this could all change very quickly if some poor data comes out from the US at 13h30 today.
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Forex Spread Trading, 22 Dec 07
The FX Daily Comment has now closed for the Festive period. We’ll be back up and running on 4-Jan-08. In the meantime, have a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
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