Forex Trading
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Quick and simple answers to the most common FX queries:
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Forex Spread Trading
A regular Forex spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Forex spread trading update, click here.
Forex Spread Betting, 20 January 2012
On the forex spread betting markets, the euro has caused some pain for those bears that have been enjoying the recent downward trend in the single currency.
Yesterday saw EUR/USD jump and continue to go higher throughout the day with the pair at one stage looking like it might even get back to $1.3000.
The general risk on trade yesterday supported the single currency and this morning we're seeing EUR/USD at $1.2950.
For now it has broken the back of the downward trend that had set in since November but the jury is still very much out as to whether this can be maintained.
Near term support and resistance are seen at $1.2860/00 and $1.3000/15 respectively.
The euro's strength has allowed it to get the better than of sterling causing GBP/EUR to crash back down below €1.2000. This morning the pair is at €1.1960 finding a bit of support, but a break below here might open up €1.1900.
Forex Spread Betting, 19 January 2012
In line with global equities pushing higher, the euro has taken full advantage and seen a two-day rise against the dollar.
You may wonder why this is happening considering several Eurozone countries had their credit rating downgraded this week.
Firstly, there was the successful bond auction for German and Portuguese debt and secondly, US manufacturing data showed that factory production rose the most in a year.
Traders took all the positivity and embraced risk again, selling safe havens like the dollar and yen. This morning EUR/USD is trading at $1.2860 and appears to remain on the upside, approaching its previous high.
Forex Spread Betting, 18 January 2012
The euro attempted a recovery to get EUR/USD back above $1.2800 but it couldn't quite get back above there. Only this morning it made another attempt, only to fail once again, taking the single currency back towards $1.2780 at the time of writing.
Technical analysis of the hourly chart highlights a double top formation and this shows how difficult it is for the euro to make any traction at the moment as it truly remains the unloved currency of the forex markets.
The trend remains firmly in a negative stance and near term support and resistance is seen at $1.2700/2680/2645 and $1.2805/2840 respectively.
Forex Spread Betting, 17 January 2012
Economic data starts to pick up again today with CPI numbers from the UK. The year on year figure is due to decline from 4.8% to 4.2% mainly due to the fact that last year’s VAT hike has now come out of the figures.
Expectations continue to point to further declines in the rate which will be most welcome for the UK consumer.
The euro has managed to rally this morning on the back of equity markets moving higher and increased risk appetite. The strength comes as quite a surprise and goes against the trend considering the news for the single currency hasn’t been good at all.
S&P followed their ratings cuts of countries with a cut to the credit rating for the Eurozone’s “big bazooka” fund. Despite the rally this morning, we could very quickly see this unwind, especially if the other major credit rating agency Moody’s comes in with the cull.
The EUR/USD spread betting market is currently trading at $1.2752 and traders going long of the market should be cautious here.
Forex Spread Betting, 16 January 2012
The euro is facing a real uphill struggle at the moment and FX spread betting investors are going to find it tough to find any kind of reason to buy into the single currency.
It hit an 11 year low against the yen and is approaching a 17 month low against the dollar, which is really carving the trend for safe haven currencies at the moment.
Whilst Greece is on the brink of default, France and Austria lost their AAA rating and Italy, Spain, Portugal and Cyprus had their ratings cut by two notches.
The EUR/USD pair is trading around $1.2670 this morning and the trend could remain bearish as it continues to be capped by a downward trend line.
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Forex Spread Betting, 13 January 2012
The euro was in good shape yesterday following the successful bond auctions in Spain and Italy.
It was also buoyed by comments from the ECB President that his flooding of the money markets with cheap funds has been making a material impact to credit. It's hard to see when overnight deposits at the ECB continue to rise each week, but then maybe he knows more than most.
The moment the bulls took control yesterday EUR/USD rallied back above $1.2800 and this morning we're at $1.2860.
The bears will feel that this move was more of a bear squeeze though and expect upside to be short lived since the downward trend remains firmly intact.
On the other hand, the bulls will point out that yesterday's move formed a bullish engulfing candlestick and follows a couple of other weak bullish candlestick signals.
A temporary bottom might have formed so key upside levels over the near term are $1.2900 and $1.2940 meanwhile support is seen at $1.2760 and $1.2725.
Forex Spread Betting, 12 January 2012
The euro's down trend remains in place and at the time of writing EUR/USD is at $1.2700. This is where the action in forex spread betting markets could be today with the ECB rate decision and subsequent press conference.
If Mario Draghi is seen as being particularly bearish in his view of the Eurozone and let's face it, it's hard not to be, then this could put further downward pressure on the single currency.
But even if the euro does continue to weaken, there's nothing he'll need or even want to do about it and the Germans in particular will be delighted to see it weaken further.
Forex Spread Betting, 11 January 2012
The euro’s downward trend looks to be continuing and is capped by a downward trending line. EUR/USD is $1.2770 at the time of writing and can’t seem to gain any traction from the decent bout of risk appetite in equities that we’ve seen so far this year.
For now though the declines seem to have been halted somewhat as the action in Europe is now picking up again following the break for Christmas and New Year.
With lots of summits coming up there might be a respite in the selling of the euro but as mentioned for now the single currency remains the dog of the FX spread betting markets.
Near term support and resistance for EUR/USD are seen at $1.2700/2660 and $1.2790/2815 respectively.
Forex Spread Betting, 10 January 2012
The euro strengthened yesterday against the dollar, which could be explained as some profit taking by traders on short positions. However, as stated yesterday, upside for the euro was always going to be short-lived simply because the Eurozone debt situation is nowhere near resolved.
Investment bank UBS say another reason that the dollar will become stronger against the euro, is because the US will reduce their dependence on oil imports and the faster growth will encourage investors toward dollar assets.
The euro is trading down this morning against the dollar at $1.2759, but we are still awaiting some news to come out of Merkel’s meeting with IMF head Christine Lagarde today.
Forex Spread Betting, 9 January 2012
The euro is becoming the whipping boy of the forex spread betting markets as it hit a 16 month low against the dollar and an 11 year low against the yen.
The fact that Friday's better than expected NFP figures, which generally would increase investors’ risk appetites, were followed by weakness in the euro really tells us where sentiment lies regarding the Eurozone.
Even if something positive is announced following the meeting between Sarkozy and Merkel in Berlin today, we would expect this to be limited to the very short term and simply signify a bear market squeeze. Currently the euro is having a strong push, up at $1.2755 against the dollar.
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Forex Spread Betting, 6 January 2012
The euro broke to a new 14 month low yesterday taking it below $1.2800 where it remains this morning at $1.2785.
The selling pressure on the single currency doesn't seem to have abated and this weakness and breakout to the downside really puts it in a downward negative trend. Key levels to watch are $1.2750/20 to the downside and for the bulls $1.2910/60.
The euro's weakness has played into the hands of sterling which has broken the back of the €1.2000 level. GBP/EUR trades at €1.2120 at the time of writing, levels not seen since September 2010.
Forex Spread Betting, 5 January 2012
The concerns over the Eurozone that crept back in yesterday caused EUR/USD to snap back on its gains and as a result it dipped back below $1.3000 after a brief visit above it.
At the time of writing we're at $1.2930 and traders will be watching key levels to the downside as the single currency remains the dog of the FX spread betting markets. Near term support is seen at $1.2900 and $1.2880, meanwhile resistance is seen at $1.3045/75.
Forex Spread Betting, 4 January 2012
The risk on trade yesterday took EUR/USD back above the $1.3000 level where it remains so far this morning.
Trading at $1.3070 at the time of writing the move higher so far this year shows that the contrarians are in control. Sentiment towards the single currency at the end of 2011 was so dire that many traders see that as the time to buy.
Near term support and resistance levels are seen at $1.3000, $1.2920 and $1.3085, $1.3120 respectively and no that the bulls have dragged the euro back above the $1.3000 level they seem to have the wind behind their backs.
Forex Spread Betting, 3 January 2012
The risk appetite is feeding across into all financial spread betting markets with the dollar coming under pressure which is allowing the euro to test the $1.3000 level again.
We have been above here briefly already this morning but at the time of writing the EUR/USD forex pair is sitting at $1.2985.
The $1.3000 level can be expected to offer up some resistance as it replaces its previous role of support so for now the euro bears are just keeping it in check.
Near term support and resistance is seen at $1.2915, $1.2885 and $1.3025, $1.3050 respectively.
Sterling is also enjoying the risk on scenario as it makes gains against the dollar, but is flat against the euro.
GBP/USD is at $1.5570 at the time of writing with GBP/EUR at €1.1995 as the latter pair continues to find the €1.2000 level a bit too much of a hurdle.
For cable near term support and resistance is seen at $1.5400, $1.5350 and $1.5610/45 respectively.
Financial Spreads >>
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Forex Trading' by DB, updated 20-Jan-12
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