Sterling was once again the flavour of the month for a day or so as we bounced off the support levels one more time. We are now near the highs of the recent ranges so we are seeing some solid selling on the basis (not unreasonably) that we might just go straight back down again.
The major currency crosses have got themselves into something of a rut with very small trading ranges by recent standards.
FX Spread Betting, 19 Jun 08
Punters have been making hay on the move in the FTSE and Sterling over the past few weeks basically selling the UK index and trading the ranges on the Pound/Dollar cross.
Every time the pound looks to be in danger of a fall to below $1.94 buyers come in and take it back up to around $1.98 to $2.00.
Cable has been in a falling wedge formation since November last year and we are now approaching the narrow part of the ‘wedge’. Analysts will be looking for a break out (currently around $1.9730 to the up side and $1.9380 to the down) to potentially give an indication of the next major move direction.
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FX Spread Betting, 16 Jun 08
A big week in the Forex markets saw Ben Bernanke fighting inflation and the dollar’s biggest weekly gain in 3 years.
The USD gained 2.3% against the trade-weighted basket of currencies, closing the week GBP/USD $1.95 and USD/JPY ¥107.90.
Ireland's 'Non' to the European Treaty saw the Euro drop. It ended the week at EUR/USD $1.5380 and EUR/GBP £0.789.
FX Spread Betting, 13 Jun 08
The Forex markets are showing sterling weakness once again versus the dollar but the cross rate has not challenged the strong support range between 1.9350 and 1.9425 yet so sterling bulls can remain hopeful that the trading range of 1.9350 to 2.0000 will remain intact.
FX Spread Betting, 11 Jun 08
On the Forex front the markets continue to play away in the ranges defined over the past few months with first one currency and then another exerting brief supremacy. Sterling, on the face of it, looks the most vulnerable with Stagflation fears growing by the day. Each rally in Cable over the past six months has achieved a lower high than the previous one. Yesterdays drop was more due to Dollar strength than Sterling weakness but at the current GBP / USD spread of $1.9545 - $1.9548 we are back into the target zone for another attempt at the massive support between $1.9340 and $1.9400.
FX Spread Betting, 9 Jun 08
Looking at last week, Sterling also continued its weakening trend; poor economic data increased expectations of an eventual interest rate cut. The GBP USD cross rate ended the week down 0.55% at $1.9690 and the EUR GBP ended 1.95% up at £0.8006.
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FX Spread Betting, 6 Jun 08
The pound was dragged a little in the Euros’ wake yesterday but even so lost over a Euro cent in the post Trichet move. The GBP / USD spread is currently at $1.9581 - $1.9584 this morning and is still at the lower end of the recent trading ranges. Any clients who bought into the early weakness yesterday are making a tidy little profit and are now selling anything approaching $1.9600. Major support remains down at $1.9370 and major resistance at $1.9800, within these two levels, day-traders are playing the ranges.
FX Spread Betting, 2 Jun 08
Looking at last week, the Euro fell on consecutive days against the Dollar from $1.58 to $1.55 before a slight rally to end at $1.5560.
Against Sterling there was a similar pattern and the Euro ended the week at £0.7860.
FX Spread Betting, 29 May 08
On the Forex front the dollar is having one of its better starts against all the majors and it would be a brave man to start betting heavily against it recovering some of its longer term losses. If the economy does turn itself around and the Fed starts to think in terms of rate hikes rather than cuts (admittedly, probably early next year at the earliest but dealers like to forestall these things) then we could see some sharp shifts higher in the greenback.
FX Spread Betting, 27 May 08
Looking at last week's Forex Futures: Sterling ended the week at GBP / USD $1.9820 and EUR / GBP £0.7960.
On Monday the AUD rose to a 24-year high against the US Dollar. The AUD was boosted by strong commodity prices and news that the central bank had discussed raising interest rates
FX Spread Betting, 23 May 08
Sterling had one of its surging days yesterday moving higher against every other major currency. We have seen some very heavy buying in the Pound and Euro vs the lower interest rate currencies (JPY, CHF, USD) in the last few sessions as traders search out for return. Rates have moved around so much in the last six months or so that there is a great deal of room for solid shifts in one direction or the other without impacting fundamental valuations.
FX Spread Betting, 20 May 08
Looking at Forex Spread Betting we are seeing a very swift repost to yesterday’s dollar strength with the pound regaining all its losses before we even walked in the door today. Cable is building a strong support in the $1.94 to $1.9450 region and we have bounced solidly off here several times in the past few months. The current GBP / USD spread is $1.9565 - $1.9568 is pretty much mid market for current trading levels but dealers will be hoping for more of a rally as we saw some solid buying below $1.95 yesterday afternoon.
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FX Spread Betting, 15 May 08
The Euro is having a bounce following this morning’s GDP data from Germany and France, currently trading at $1.5540 and Cable (GBP / USD) is also a little higher at $1.9485.
FX Spread Betting, 14 May 08
The dollar continues to strengthen against other majors this morning and Cable (GBP / USD) in particular is at an interesting level. $1.9400 is a big support level and has tempted some of our clients to go long of the pound in the hope for a bounce, but a fall below here and it looks like $1.9000 might be the next stop.
FX Spread Betting, 13 May 08
The Pound Dollar cross obligingly bounced off the support mentioned yesterday at $1.9450 after the PPI numbers came in even stronger than forecast (rather backing up the MPC’s rate decision last week). The outlook for rate cuts, whilst compelling on several fronts, is rather weakened by the blowtorch of increasing inflationary pressures. Maybe the committee will ignore the price rise data and go for growth (as per the Fed) but it would be a brave man to predict this as it would be flying in the face of the last ten years off policy. Unfortunately higher rates are unlikely to come to the aid of the pound for long as there is a swathe of other factors pushing down its attractions. A couple of percent over a year in added income hardly compensates for the huge trade and budget deficits.
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FX Spread Betting, 12 May 08
Forex traders seem to be dollar favourable this morning with the Yen giving up 80 and the Euro 100 pips from Friday’s close. The pound is recovering a little of last weeks losses but it must be said that the momentum is still very much pound unfavourable. The GBP / USD spread is at $1.9481 - $1.9484 having printed new 10 week lows at $1.9440 in early action. Unfortunately the pound seems to have got itself into a ‘lower low, lower high’ cycle versus the dollar over the past few weeks and we need to break out of this sentiment soon otherwise we will be pressuring serious weekly closing support levels at around $1.9300 which, if broken, could well see the pound slumping back into the 2003-2006 trading range of $1.7000 to $1.9000.
FX Spread Betting, 9 May 08
Unfortunately the FX markets, which seemed to be selling the Pound and Euro in anticipation of a rate cut from both the ECB and MPC only reversed for the Euro and not for the Pound. Sterling is now weakening again against all the majors and yet another attack on the $1.95 level vs the dollar is going on as I write. Sentiment on currencies can be a fickle master with the ugly duckling turning into the beautiful swan almost in the blink of an eye. Until June last year nobody wanted Yen as the ‘carry trade’ worked its magic but since the 22nd of that month suddenly the Dollar and Pound became the smelly socks in the drawer. When you read of this or that guru talking about ‘long term’ trends just remember how few were forecasting the last nine months of correction.
FX Spread Betting, 8 May 08
For today, dealers will take their lead from the rate decisions due at 12.00 (BOE) and 12.45 (ECB). This should make for a peaceful morning. My indication yesterday that currencies might be moribund until today was a little wide of the mark as the pound and euro decided to react to today’s expected cuts as though they had already happened. Both currencies had a tough time of it and the Euro continues to do so this morning, falling through the $1.5350 support level overnight before bouncing off the $1.5280 support in early European action.
The pound is holding above $1.9500 having hit the level yesterday afternoon and several times in the small hours this morning. The currency is building a volume support at just above $1.95 and bulls will be hoping that the effects of any rate cut will have been factored into the market before it happens. If this occurs then there could very easily be a relief rally on the actual announcement. And, of course, there is always the chance that the BOE will do nothing.
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FX Spread Betting, 7 May 08
On the forex spread betting front the pound is battling to maintain its strength against a host of crosses. Cable is drifting below $1.9600 in early action. Whilst we have had innumerable failed attempts to go lower over the past few months, you do get the feeling that the battering ram will at some point break through. With the Bank of England decision to be made tomorrow it would be surprising if a move were to be successful today. That means we may find short term buyers coming in at these prices merely for today’s session.
FX Spread Betting, 6 May 08
Looking at the FX spread betting market last week the slide in the Euro gathered momentum, partly due to demand for the Dollar. The Euro ended the week at EUR USD $1.5410 and EUR GBP £0.7800. Sterling weakened marginally against the Dollar to $1.9720.
FX Spread Betting, 2 May 08
Enthusiasm around the US economy was behind the drive of the currency markets yesterday with the dollar making substantial gains against sterling and in particular the euro. Today’s non-farm payroll figures may put a halt to that if they come out much worse than expected.
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FX Spread Betting, 1 May 08
In the FX spread trading markets the pound regained it trading range with some ease yesterday afternoon and we are back in the $1.9700 to $2.000 region once again. With the current GBP / USD spread at $1.9906 - $1.9909 I can see Financial Spreads clients, who bought the move below $1.9700 in large numbers yesterday, taking profits very soon. That’s on the reasonable basis of “let somebody else take us above $2 if they can, I don’t want to risk it with my money!”.
The announcement by the Fed of another 25bps off the base rate was not a surprise but it rather reinforces the worldwide impression that the US is following a policy of dollar devaluation (notwithstanding statements made by politicians). With Europe and the UK unlikely to follow with such dramatic rate reductions foreign currency players have only a poor return to contemplate when buying into the Greenback. This would not matter too much if the economy was perceived as being reasonably robust or if the trade balance was close to parity. Unfortunately the opposite is the actuality and so the dollar bears will continue to circle the markets for some considerable time.
This does not mean that the dollar will necessarily decline, as much world business outside of the US takes place in dollars, but it does make a serious rally less likely in the short to medium term. If the US does drift into a recession (we are not in one yet no matter what you read) then the prospects (as with the pound) do not look rosy.
Spread Betting on FX, 30 Apr 08
On the currency, front the pound finally broke out of the $1.97 to $2.00 range and we have slipped to a GBP / USD spread of $1.9646 - $1.9649 in early action today. FinancialSpreads.com clients are buying into this weakness (and have been buying since the $1.9750 level) so they must be hoping for a regaining of the aforesaid range soon. If we can close down here for a few days then the probability starts to switch towards a concerted move lower. The pound has had a truly awful time for quite a period and, unfortunately, this shows no signs of halting just yet.
Spread Betting on FX, 29 Apr 08
The markets today look to be going over the same ground as yesterday with the pound dropping back to yesterday mornings level around £1.9800 and Gold and Oil reversing some of the recent gains.
Spread Betting on FX, 28 Apr 08
Sterling is back in the mid range of the $1.9700 to $2.0000 region (I get tired of writing this) with current GBP USD spread at $1.9797 - $1.9800. We had several attempts on Thursday and Friday to break below the $1.97 mark but all were defeated. The Capital Spreads clients continue to trade the range and have been good buyers on weakness and sellers on strength which has proved very profitable over the past three or four weeks. For longer term traders there is some need for a break out but in all honesty it is difficult to see which way this is likely to be. The trend appears to be for a weaker pound but we really need a confirmation of a move lower for the bigger players to join in.
'Forex Trading' by DB, updated 20-Jun-08
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