Gold continues to look weak as other commodities take up the reins but we are still very much looking towards the dollar for inspiration. Any strength or weakness from the greenback is likely to translate directly into Gold Prices.
Oil...Going up, staying up, staying painful. Over 100 quid to fill up my gas guzzler the other night. Will have to raid the kiddies piggy bank.
Gold Spread Trading, 21 Apr 08
Against the Yen the dollar spread betting market is back at the levels of this time last month at ¥103.69 - ¥103.71. In the mean time it managed to fall all the way to ¥95.75. It has been this recovery from the lows that has caused the fallout in Gold as Far East valuations have slipped. The JPY / USD cross is eying the ¥105.00 level as the major resistance as this was where it held up on the way down.
Gold Spread Trading, 16 Apr 08
Gold is still hovering around the $930 mark this morning with the Gold Rolling Daily spread betting market at $929.3 - $929.8.
Gold Spread Trading, 14 Apr 08
Gold is lower this morning around $921. Bullion actually hit a low of $914 in the Asian session. The dollar's little recovery against all the other majors has led to a little pressure on metal prices but the feeling in the market is that the trend is not over.
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Gold Spread Trading, 11 Apr 08
Gold is surprisingly a little lower at $924 and remains content to hold above the $900 mark. Support seems to be building up again after its sharp decline from $1,000 and the market is taking in its stride that the IMF plans to sell a large chunk of its gold holding.
Gold Spread Trading, 9 Apr 08
The price of Gold is now lower and around the $905 an ounce mark. The Gold spread betting market has seeing big intraday swings in the last few days. Again though, it looks like the Capital Spread Account holders still want to be long of gold. They’re buying on any weakness with the longer term view that we'll see prices test the highs above $1,000 that were set last month. The bulls reasoning for this is that the US's economic problems will heavily support gold prices, but anyone who reads this column regularly knows that I am one of the gold cynics!
Gold Spread Trading, 8 Apr 08
The price of Gold is unchanged this morning around the $922 mark.
Rather surprisingly the IMF have let the market know that they are considering selling some of their gold bullion and who would blame them at these prices! The market has reacted little to the news as it requires board approval and there are still so many willing buyers.
Gold Spread Trading, 7 Apr 08
Gold has managed to recover the bull run momentum over the past few days with the medium term up-trend having been regained. Dealers will be hoping that this is not a dead cat bounce in a falling market but the prospects are reasonably good that the fall to $870 has shaken out the weak longs.
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Gold Spread Trading, 3 Apr 08
Gold managed to climb back up to the medium term trend line at $904 which it broke through on Tuesday but it is now backtracking away from here. The gold spread is currently at $898.0 - $898.5 just below the psychological $900 level. Clients are buying once more on the move but are very twitchy to any quick reversals.
Gold Spread Trading, 2 Apr 08
As feared Gold continues to weaken as other investment sectors have their day in the sun and the dollar puts on a bit of a bounce. The yellow metal is now below $900 for the first time since mid Feb and we have seen a 15% fall from the traded highs.
If the dollar continues to strengthen and the equity markets settle into a better trading sentiment the rush into precious metal protection may very well turn into a stampede to get out. It this point there will be a great number of hurting long positions being nursed by anxious traders. There is expected to be support at the current levels around $875 and below here at $850 but if these are breached then bears will be eying below $800 and further.
Gold Spread Trading, 1 Apr 08
Gold begins the day at $916 but buyers are getting stretched at theses prices and there may be an early attempt to the downside to squeeze them out. Support in the yellow metal is at the bottom of the fall out last week at $903 and this also (now) equates to the trend line support of the big bull move from $650 started back in August. A close below here could not be described as anything other than negative.
Gold Spread Trading, 31 Mar 08
As the equity markets slump thus the demand for Gold increases once more. The yellow metal is now some 10 bucks higher this morning but the buying seems to be coming from Europe for once rather than the Far East and the US. We are still some way off the levels of last week, which tended to oscillate around 950 level, but with the gold spread at $938.0 - $938.5 the recovery from Fridays weakness is underway.
Gold Spread Trading, 28 Mar 08
With the dollar holding steady the precious metals begin to look pricey. The cost of holding long positions begins to present a problem and with no currency appreciation to help out we may see a second leg to the recent sell off. That said Financial Spreads clients continue to buy into any weakness so there is still strong confidence in the $1,000+ mark.
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Gold Spread Trading, 27 Mar 08
Gold added to Tuesdays move with another $15 gain yesterday up to the symbolic $950 level where we open this morning. If the dollar strength is confirmed we may see a little profit taking in the yellow metal but as with the indices our clients continue to be buyers on any weakness.
Gold Spread Trading, 26 Mar 08
The commodities markets were a bit brighter yesterday and Gold managed a $25 rally as buyers came in expecting a continuation of the rally after the recent sell off. Weakness in the dollar also helped slightly but volumes were light. The gold spread is opening at $937.8 - $398.3 unchanged overnight. The support at around $905 (where there was quite a battle a month or so ago) held well over the last few sessions and the bounce will have taken out quite a few weak shorts. We are now back at the levels that were quite a resistance to going higher in January so a close above $940 would be welcomed by the bulls as possible evidence of a rejection of the recent falls.
Gold Spread Trading, 25 Mar 08
Commodities also had an exciting time of it yesterday with Gold trading the $912 to $925 range several times and this morning jumping $12 from the aforementioned low of $912 where we closed last night. This morning we’re opening the gold spread at $924.5 - $925.0. The pull back from the highs of $1030 has been quite spectacular but recent retreats (over the last two/three years) have generally been worse than this so ‘new’ bulls should be wary of getting too excited by the chance of ‘getting in’ at a cheaper level.
Gold Spread Trading, 20 Mar 08
On the commodities front it was nice to see after all the press comment on Tuesday about how everyone should be buying Gold that the yellow metal has (in just three trading sessions) dropped almost $100. As mentioned in yesterdays comment our biggest and longest term Gold longs all sold out on Monday, well above the $1,000 mark. Readers who followed their lead will be sitting on nice little profits now. With the gold spread betting market at $936.0 - $936.5 we are still very much in a bullish momentum move. However, as with all big trends there will always be major corrections to shake out the unwary or the overly aggressive (otherwise we would all be millionaires!).
The Daily Comment will continue after the Easter Break.
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Spread Trading, 19 Mar 08
The dollar which had managed a bit of a rally yesterday on the Fed announcement is giving it all back again this morning. This is causing a bit of a move higher again in Gold as the yellow metal strives to recover from the vicious sell off over the past two days. Highs to lows in Gold from Monday morning to yesterday evening were some $60 and we can anticipate that there were some nasty hangovers from weak buyers who were coming in late to the commodities party. Two of our biggest Gold bulls actually sold out of their very long term positions on Monday morning (wish I had followed them!) realising massive profits. No doubt they will be back in at some point but even the drop to $975 last night did not tempt them.
Spread Trading, 18 Mar 08
Commodity markets had a pretty solid reversal yesterday after the huge early move in Gold was completely turned over by the close.
Spread Trading, 17 Mar 08
As the fear over asset values continues to sweep across continents, Gold powers on unabated. It is trading $27 dollars higher than Friday’s close an impressive move in anyone’s language. As the dollar has fallen some 2% versus the Yen the rally is not so impressive in far Eastern terms but still marks new all time highs. And, as I have commented many times before, it is a brave man who fights against the tide. Although I must also add that I personally believe that Gold, in the long run, is a very poor investment tool.
Momentum in commodities is likely to accelerate again today on initial opens and if the US allows the deterioration in the dollar to continue unabated we will see continued inflationary price pressure. From the viewpoint of China, Japan, Russia etc all those dollar holdings (trillions of them) picked up over the past decade or so are now worth some 25% to 30% less than last summer. These are real losses and the bond holders concerned will not be happy with the benign neglect of the Fed. Italy (with a stable and appreciating currency backing up its bonds) failed to get its government bond auction away last week. What hope for the next US Treasury issue? The US depends upon the influx of foreign buyers to sop up all the issuance. If this disappears who will pick up the slack? Probably not the investment banks you can be sure of that!
'Gold Trading' by DB, updated 22-Apr-08
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