The FTSE is reacting to the 400 point rally in the Dow last night with another 80 points to the upside as we regain the 5700 level with some ease. The FTSE 100 Spread is now at 5775 -5776. Financial institutions are likely to be the biggest gainers as UK banks with their limited exposure to the Toxic debts so evident across the globe will be bolstered by the new liquidity available. And if the moves by the US do in fact work then this should help across the board. Many punters will be shy of getting too enthusiastic as we have seen these rallies too often over the past few months.
Indices Spread Betting, 11 Mar 08
Today sees the FTSE opening a nice bit stronger after yesterdays sell off but as with yesterdays comment this does appear to be a recurring event where buyers drift into play in the sunshine of a bright new day only for sellers to regain the upper hand by the close.
The FTSE spread this morning is 5659 - 5660 up about 30 points. Both the Nikkei and the Dow have recovered some composure overnight and this will bolster the early activity. All the major indices are now at lows since the dramatic drop and recovery on Jan 21/22 when the Fed made its emergency 1% rate cut. The States have now cut rates to 3% (and are expected to go another 75 pips this month) and President Bush has announced a huge fiscal stimulus package but none of this seems to be bolstering sentiment. Cut to the UK, where we appear to be under the control of a Central Bank and a government which appears to believe that if we close our eyes, pretend nothing is going on and sit very, very, still then the whole thing might not notice us and just pass us by.
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Indices Spread Betting, 10 Mar 08
The FTSE has shown a little resilience this morning. It’s now trading 40 points up from where we were originally calling the market at 7am. But, the positive start may not last long following the dramatic drop in the US after the bad employment data on Friday. Asia was also weak overnight (19 month low hit by the Nikkei). By all standards things may be a little quieter this week with little in the way of economic data, however Wednesday will prove an interesting day for the UK's Chancellor who releases the details of his first ever budget. The man hasn't been shy of any political turbulence recently and as 80mph winds lash across the UK it looks like the week may be equally unsettled for Capt. Darling.
There seem to be more and more claims from analysts that the US is in recession and the questions now are a) how long will this negative growth last and b) has this been priced into the equity market? The FTSE is currently some 16% off its 2007 highs and 10% down on the year so far, with the Dow making similar loses. Only 2 months ago when the market was subject to mass selling many people were calling this a new bear market. With the FTSE failing to hold onto the 6000 at the end of February and four big declines out of the last five trading days, these claims don't seem unreasonable.
However, for the time being our spread betting clients seem to think we're over the worst and are largely long the FTSE, Dax 30 and Wall Street.
Indices Spread Betting, 6 Mar 08
The recent support in the markets is looking fragile this morning after the US inspired rally yesterday has seen no major follow through in early action in the Far East. The FTSE is opening unchanged but sellers are outnumbering buyers in early action by almost 2 to 1 on our books as Spread Betting clients take what profits they can from the positive day yesterday and start to set up shorts.
Indices Spread Betting, 5 Mar 08
The FTSE 100 is up 25 points and this is actually a pretty good performance given that it gave up almost 30 pips in ex-dividend value last night. We are still below 5820 though which may give the bulls some pause (even though it means nothing on a yield/value basis) as this has proved something of a support / resistance level over the past year. Likewise 5720, from where we bounced at the worst point yesterday, will be focussing minds as we look towards the immediate direction. The index has now had five down days in a row and this type of momentum can be difficult to turn around.
Indices Spread Betting, 4 Mar 08
The FTSE opened 80 points lower yesterday and then proceeded to trade in a choppy range between 5780 and 5840 before closing at 5820. Today sees the open about 20 higher at 5835 but to be honest there seems little pressure in either direction. In the absence of any particularly bad news overnight small buyers are likely to drift into various stocks which may cause some upward influence. Commentators are beginning to worry about the effects of the weakening dollar on the US export market which still accounts for a heft proportion of UK and European business. With the US consumer battered on virtually every front (housing, employment, just general sentiment, etc) the rising cost of imported manufactured products is likely to start to bite.
Indices Spread Betting, 3 Mar 08
This morning sees the UK’s reaction to the 600 point plus drop in the Nikkei and the general 3% declines across the Far East exchanges. The FTSE is called another 80 points lower as we, yet again, trade the 5700 to 6050 range. Three sessions ago we were looking at breaking above 6100, this morning the FTSE Spread is called at 5805 - 5806. There is some good support around the 5800 level which may bring out some of the ‘bottom pickers’ but the advice must still be to sit on your hands. We can easily fall much further than this if buyers do as previously and just hunker down in their shell holes.
'Indices March Spread Betting' by DB, updated 14-Mar-08
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