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Nonfarm Payroll Spread Betting

Nonfarm Payroll Spread Betting

Where to Spread Bet on the Nonfarm Payrolls

Finally a number of firms are offering a spread betting market on the monthly US nonfarm payrolls release. Here we take a look at how and where to trade it.

Nonfarm Payroll Analysis & News

Date Trading Update
02-Jul-15 [12:32pm] Will the NFP Hit 233,000 New Jobs?

Update by IG Index
06-Mar-15 [1:48pm]

February 2015 Nonfarm Payrolls Jumps

The key jobs figure for February added 295,000 jobs to the US economy, with the unemployment rate dropping to 5.5%.

This was significantly higher than the MarketWatch expectation for a figure of 238,000, suggesting a strong jobs market.

Update by Jenna Cutly, Editor, CleanFinancial
06-Mar-15 [9:04am]

February Payrolls Market (Due on 6 Mar 2015)

After Mario Draghi provided some details of the ECB's QE programme yesterday, attention now turns to the US economy.

Today's Nonfarm Payrolls report will be a major influence on trader expectations for the Fed's first rate hike.

The MarketWatch forecast is for a rise of 238,000 jobs but Financial Spreads does not seem to be quite as optimistic.

Their NFP market is currently priced at 232.5 - 237.5, representing a gain of between 232,500 and 237,500 jobs.

Update by Jenna Cutly, Editor, CleanFinancial
06-Feb-15 [1:46pm]

January 2015 Nonfarm Payrolls Beat Expectations

The US unemployment report for January has revealed 257,000 jobs were added to the economy, with the unemployment rate shifting slightly to 5.7%.

This was ahead of the MarketWatch expectation for a figure of 230,000.

Update by Gordon Childs, Editor, CleanFinancial
09-Jan-15 [2:08pm] December Sees Lots of Job Creation but a Fall in Wages

At first look, the US jobs report was extremely impressive, with 252,000 jobs created in December and November's figure revised up from the already staggering 321,000 to 353,000, the highest since January 2012.

Unemployment fell to 5.6% in December, only 0.1% above what the Federal Reserve deems to be full employment, at which point we should start to see some real wage growth and inflationary pressures, hence the need for a rate hike in the next 6 months.

Continuation of Conflicting Data May Delay Rate Hike

Unfortunately that's where the positivity around the report ends as participation fell back to 62.7%, which was probably largely responsible for the decline in the unemployment rate, while wages fell by 0.2% on the month dragging the yearly figure back to 1.7%.

While this is still good, it's certainly not the report the FOMC was hoping to see, with all of the metrics they are most interested in right now disappointing.

I don't think this changes the outlook for the first rate hike this year but a couple more months of the same and they may be start to consider waiting a little longer until they are more convinced on the sustainability of the recovery.

The market reacted almost exactly as you would expect to this report, with the dollar strengthening immediately after the release as traders react to the job creation and unemployment numbers, before pulling back as the wage and participation readings take some of the shine off the report.

All things considered, the report is still strong and I'm sure wage growth and participation will improve in the coming months as the recovery goes from strength to strength.

Given that many jobs that are created in the holiday season are low paid, we maybe shouldn't be too surprised at the decline in wage growth and instead be pleased with the level of job creation.

Update by Craig Erlam, Market Analyst, Alpari
08-Jan-15 [11:35am]

December Nonfarm Payrolls Market (Due on 9 Jan 2015)

Following a dovish set of FOMC minutes, the market is now turning its attention to the Nonfarm Payrolls report to see how US unemployment is faring in the run up to an expected rate hike later this year.

Current expectations from MarketWatch is for the US economy to have gained 230,000 jobs.

However, Financial Spreads seems to be a little more bullish, with their NFP market priced at 237.5 - 242.5, representing a gain of between 237,500 and 242,500 jobs.

We will find out who is right tomorrow afternoon.

Update by Jenna Cutly, Editor, CleanFinancial
05-Dec-14 [2:07pm] November Non-Farms Beats Expectations by More than 90,000 Jobs

The US economy added 321k jobs in November, as today's jobs report surprised by posting the highest non-farm payrolls number for almost three years.

This represents a massive surprise, with all market estimates pointing towards a significantly lower number, with the median expectation at 230k.

For once, we have seen a comprehensively positive release, with the whole range of labour market indicators pointing towards a healthy and vibrant economy coming into the end of the year.

With this, we are moving into an increasingly polarised landscape, where continued deterioration in Japan and the Eurozone is contrasted against bullish UK and US economies.

That continues to be reflected in the currency markets as the likes of the EURUSD and USDJPY pairs move sharply in favour of the greenback.

Will Yellen Transform into a Hawk?

Perhaps equally as important from a monetary policy standpoint is the fact that hours worked and hourly earnings both moved higher in November, meaning that the 'slack' continues to be eaten up in the jobs market.

Thus with earnings now confidently outstripping inflation, real earnings growth appears to finally be something that is here to stay.

Now all eyes turn to Janet Yellen and the FOMC, who are likely to be increasingly hawkish after today's release, with the one thorn in their side coming in the form of continued downside in oil prices.

Despite this, expectations of a Fed rise are likely to have been brought forward for many and this has been reflected by the downside seen in the US indices which are selling off.

However, for the time being, this is unlikely to really impact equity prices as it is agreed that we will be waiting a long time yet until US rates begin to rise.

Update by Joshua Mahony, Research Analyst, Alpari
03-Dec-14 [11:11am]

November Nonfarm Payrolls Market (Due on 5 Dec 2014)

With significant moves in commodities impacting markets across the globe, the US NFP remains an incredibly important data point for investors.

This month, the FinancialSpreads NFP market is priced at 225.0 - 235.0, where each point represents 1,000 jobs.

Interestingly, the MarketWatch forecast is at the very top end of that range at 235,000.

Ahead of last month's figure, analyst expectations were almost identical to this but the number ultimately came in at just 214,000.

Are we set for another disappointment?

Update by Gordon Childs, Editor, CleanFinancial
07-Nov-14 [1:42pm]

October Payrolls Report Misses but Unemployment Rate Beats

We have seen a slightly below expectations rise in the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, with the October figure adding just 214,000 jobs.

However, this was the ninth consecutive month to add more than 200,000 postions and the unemployment rate surprised by coming in lower than forecast at 5.8%.

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor, CleanFinancial
06-Nov-14 [10:49am]

Will the October 2014 NFP Beat the 220k Expectations?

With Wednesday's ADP jobs data pointing towards a strong gain in US employment, IG talks to Marc Ostwald from ADM Investor Services about whether the Nonfarm Payrolls forecast of 220,000 jobs may be too conservative.

Update by IG Index
03-Nov-14 [2:00pm]

October Nonfarm Market (Due on 7 Nov 2014)

Following several weeks of volatility across the financial markets, traders' attention now turns to the October NFP.

Looking at the Financial Spreads Nonfarm Payrolls market, the firm is currently quoting 230.0 - 240.0, suggesting that the US economy will have added between 230,000 and 240,000 jobs during October.

This ties in nicely with the MarketWatch forecast of 235,000 jobs, but it's interesting that the spread betting firm felt the need to increase their spread from 5 points last month to 10 points.

I've checked with rival Capital Spreads and they have also upped their spread by the same amount; perhaps the various spread firms took a larger than expected hit last time?

Update by Gordon Childs, Editor, CleanFinancial
03-Oct-14 [2:01pm] US Jobs Jump but Data Lacks Quality

The US economy added 248,000 jobs in September, as the markets are coming to grips with a jobs report which was hugely positive in quantity, yet somewhat underwhelming in quality.

Following the disappointing release last month, where a meagre 142,000 jobs were created, the focus was upon whether we would see both a recovery in September and a subsequent revision to the August number.

In fact we saw both, with the third highest job creation in 2014 seen in September (248,000), set against the biggest upward revision of 2014 so far (180,000 up from 142,000).

However, it was the often uninspiring unemployment rate which took the markets by surprise, with a tumble down to 5.9% from the 6.1% seen in August.

Participation Rate Hits Lowest Level Since February 1978

However, with a strong showing in headline employment numbers, came continued weakness in the actual quality of the labour market, with the participation rate falling to the lowest since February 1978 and average earnings pulling back to 0% growth month on month.

This provides somewhat of a beneficial environment for Yellen to operate within and a difficult one for investors to gauge.

In part this is due to the fact that whilst part-time work remains rampant, earnings growth is near enough non-existent and participation in the jobs market continues to wane.

This suggests that the so called 'slack' that has been referred to by Janet Yellen is still well and truly a problem.

Janet Yellen has resisted calls to establish a specific date for interest rates to rise and today gave her the opportunity to continue doing so.

However, as is seen within the UK, it comes to a point where such slack is regarded as a long-term trend and thus the FOMC will need to bite the bullet sooner or later.

Update by Joshua Mahony, Research Analyst, Alpari
03-Oct-14 [1:35pm] September NFP Comes in at 248,000

Perhaps buyers of the Nonfarms market will have regained some faith after last month's miss, with 248,000 jobs added in September, above the 216k many were expecting.

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor, CleanFinancial
03-Oct-14 [11:00am] NFP Market Trending Lower

The Nonfarms market has been trading a little lower over the last 3 days and is now priced at 212.5 - 217.5, i.e. suggesting 212.5k to 217.5k new US jobs in September.

With stocks falling for the last few weeks, it looks like the NFP expectations have also been coming down.

The FTSE 100 hit 6899 on 19 Sep and since then it has tumbled a solid 500pts lower.

The US markets are also feeling the pain. The Dow was trading around 17,364 on 19 Sep and it's now around 16,864. Over the same period, the S&P 500 has dropped from 2022 to 1952

On 5 Sep, just before the previous NFP data was released, the CFD and spread betting markets were traded at 228.5 - 233.5.

Is the NFP reflecting the nervous-looking stock markets rather than the fundamentals?

Given that the last two readings were 142k (5 Sep) and 209k (1 Aug), is the market still too high?

We will see at 1:30pm today.

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor, CleanFinancial
30-Sep-14 [4:12pm] September Nonfarm Market (Due on 3 Oct 2014)

It's that time of the month again as we look towards the key US unemployment data for the month of September.

Following August's surprisingly low figure of just 142k, the September forecasts are targeting a gain of 220,000 jobs according to

Currently, the FinancialSpreads NFP market seems to concur, with a spread of 216.5 - 221.5, i.e. expecting between 216.5k and 221.5k jobs.

But what do you think?

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor, CleanFinancial
05-Sep-14 [1:36pm] August NFP Comes in at 142,000

It's not been a good NFP for buyers, with expectations at 230,000, a final figure of 142,000 is quite a miss.

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor, CleanFinancial
05-Sep-14 [10:31am] NFP Market Comes Alive

Finally, some movement in the NFP market.

On 1 Sep the spread betting market was trading at 212.5 - 217.5, it's now seen a healthy jump higher to 228.5 - 233.5.

These Nonfarm markets have been running since May but we've not really seen these kind of shifts before.

I'd hazard a guess that investors are much happier trading this market now that it's down to a 5pt spread.

And, unlike an FX or Index trade, with nowhere for the spreads companies to hedge off their positions, any large trades could easily see them move this market.

Elsewhere, MarketWatch were predicting 226k jobs on 1 Sep, that's now moved slightly higher to 228k.

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor, CleanFinancial
01-Sep-14 [11:22am] August Nonfarm Payroll Market (and tighter spreads)

It's time for the August nonfarm payroll report which comes out this Friday (5 Sep).

For those who like trading this market there is some good news, the spread betting firms have cut the spread to 5pts.

The May NFP market started off with a largely untradeable 30pt spread but for the June NFP market it was trimmed down to 10pts.

Financial Spreads and Capital Spreads now have the market priced at 212.5 - 217.5, i.e. a 5pt spread

This suggests that there will be 212.5k - 217.5k new jobs in August.

Note that MarketWatch is currently forecasting 226k new jobs.

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor, CleanFinancial
01-Aug-14 [1:59pm] Goldilocks Non-Farms?

The US jobs report and inflation numbers for July had the perfect balance of being good enough to support a strong economic recovery in the US, while lacking in the areas that the Fed is most concerned with right now, including wage growth.

From a markets standpoint, we couldn't ask for more.

No one wants the economy to suffer in order for the stock markets to keep pushing higher.

However, the Fed, in remaining extremely dovish regardless of the improvement being seen in many areas, has created a situation whereby the data can be great in most areas but we don't have to worry about rate hikes, which means stocks can continue to push higher.

The numbers themselves were a little mixed but there were a lot of good points to the data that shouldn't be overlooked.

For example, the unemployment rate rose but so did the participation rate for the first time since March.

While the rise was only marginal, it's still potentially a sign that people are returning to the work force as they see the jobs market improving.

In terms of job creation, only 209,000 jobs were created in July, which was lower than expected, but last month's figure was revised up by 10,000 and this month's was far from poor.

It's also the sixth consecutive month that more than 200,000 jobs have been created which is not something to be sniffed at.

Update by Craig Erlam, Market Analyst, Alpari
29-Jul-14 [5:07pm] July Nonfarm Market (Due on 1 Aug 2014)

Looking at the Nonfarm market for July, i.e. the release on Friday 1 August, FinancialSpreads are currently quoting a spread of 230 to 240, i.e. they are expecting an NFP reading of 230k - 240k.

The latest forecast according to is 230k.

Which way to trade?

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor, CleanFinancial
03-Jul-14 [2:53pm] June NFP Market Settled: Buyers Profit

It's good to see that the forecast was way off as we discussed this morning and Michael Hewson of CMC suggested yesterday (see below).

The forecast was for 215k and the jobs data came in at 288k.

Yesterday the financial spread betting market was trading around the 212 - 222 area for most of the day.

Naturally the market was settled at 288 and so there was a cheeky 66pt profit for the buyers (and a 76pt loss for sellers).

Let's say you were trading ?5 per point and bought at 222, if so you'd make:

P&L = (closing price - opening price) x stake per point
P&L = (288 - 222) x ?5 per point
P&L = 66 x ?5 per point
P&L = ?330 (profit)

Of course, if you were more pessimistic about the US recovery, and had sold the market at 212 for ?5 per point, you'd be in the red:

P&L = (opening price - closing price) x stake per point
P&L = (212 - 288) x ?5 per point
P&L = -76 x ?5 per point
P&L = -?380 (loss)

Let's hope the companies running the market didn't lose too much so they run the market again next month.

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor, CleanFinancial
03-Jul-14 [9:22am]

Quick NFP Analysis of Actual vs Consensus

We often read how the analysts get it wrong so I thought I'd take a quick look at the 'consensus' predictions for March 2007 to June 2014.

The Good

In short, the 'total' consensus for the period was 2,574,890 new jobs which overestimated the actual number of 2,085,000 by 489,890.

Put another way, the forecast was slightly too optimistic by an average of just 5,600 jobs per month.

The Really Not Too Bad

If we narrow that down to the last 12 months, the 'total' estimate for the period was 2,172,000 new jobs. That only underestimated the actual number of 2,192,000 by 1,667 per month.

So surprisingly good.

The Ugly

So over time the predictions are surprisingly accurate and not worth trading.

But we're not looking to trade the 'totals' over time, we're trading individual months.

The typical deviation, either positive or negative, for a given month?
  • March 2007 to June 2014: 61,200 jobs
  • July 2013 to June 2014: 47,500 jobs
Sadly, from a trading point of view, the spread betting market isn't moving much and it will be settled on the actual number.

Otherwise you'd make 2 large opposing trades with tight guaranteed stops on both.

Having said that, to avoid the inevitable argument with their clients I can see that the spread firms won't let you add guaranteed stops on the NFP market.

(note the above data doesn't include corrections to prior readings).

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor, CleanFinancial
02-Jul-14 [3:31pm] 240,000 for the June NFP?

Today's ADP numbers for June showed a rise of 281,000, well above the most optimistic of expectations, and more than 100,000 above the May figure.

This is certainly a great way to round off Q2 and does seem to suggest that the US economy is finally shaking off the worst of the Q1 deep freeze.

During Q2, the ADP jobs growth averaged 222,000 per month, compared to just the 171,000 in Q1.

If the same pattern is repeated tomorrow on the NFP, then we could well be in for a similar positive end to the quarter.

ADP vs NFP Comparison is Always Fraught with Danger

Looking for correlations between the two reports is always fraught with danger, but if the pattern of the last five months is repeated then we may see a high number.

Being more conservative, I'm going to take an average between the quarterly performances of both reports.

In Q1 the NFP averaged 190,000, and ADP averaged 170,000, whilst in Q2 the ADP has averaged 222,000, which could suggest that we could well get a number in the region of 240,000 for tomorrow's payrolls number to maintain the current correlation, between the performance of the ADP and NFP.

Today's ADP number does appear to have prompted some upward revisions to this week's initial estimate of 210,000.

Update by Michael Hewson, Senior Market Analyst, CMC Markets
02-Jul-14 [3:19pm] Nonfarms Market Down to a 10pt Spread (Finally!)

Nice to see that Financial Spreads (and Cap Spreads) have finally tightened their Nonfarms market from a 30pt spread to a 10pt spread.

OK, I agree with you. A 10pt spread is certainly not a tight spread.

But it's certainly more tradable than it was.

The current market is at 212 - 222 and, looking at the chart below, the market has only traded a 25pt range over the last month.

Financial Spreads Nonfarm Payrolls market and chart:

Nonfarms June 2014 Chart

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor, CleanFinancial
02-Jul-14 [11:10am] June Nonfarms Consensus

According to MarketWatch the consensus forecast is putting us at 215,000 jobs in June.

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor, CleanFinancial
24-Jun-14 [11:33am] June Nonfarm Payrolls Market Now Open (Release date 3 July)

It seems that the spreads firms are currently expecting a minor change for the next NFP number.

The data is normally released on the first Friday of the month however the June nonfarms report will come out a day early, i.e. on Thursday 3 July.

This is because our cousins on the other side of the Atlantic like to celebrate their independence.

Why they wouldn't want to be ruled by Sir David Cameron is beyond me.

Current Pricing

Both FinancialSpreads and CapitalSpreads have the market at 193 - 223, i.e. they are predicting 193k - 223k new jobs.

So with a mid-point of 208k that's only a 9k change on last month.

Surely this market can't become as calm and boring as all the other markets.

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor, CleanFinancial
06-Jun-14 [1:52pm] NFP Spread Betting Market Settled: You Lose

Not a Good Day for Nonfarms Traders The NFP for May came in at 217,000. Therefore the NFP spread betting market was settled at 217.

This is a good example of where wide spreads are bad for investors.

How did it work? The market opened at 200-230 which meant that you could buy at 230 or short the market at 200.

Let's say you were trading ?2 per point, if you bought at 230 you would have made a loss

P&L = (closing price - opening price) x stake
P&L = (217 - 230) x ?2 per point
P&L = -13 x ?2 per point
P&L = -?26 (loss)

Again, with a ?2 per point spread bet, if you sold at 200 you also would have made a loss.

P&L = (opening price - closing price) x stake per point
P&L = (200 - 217) x ?2 per point
P&L = -17 x ?2 per point
P&L = -?34 (loss)

The key reason why both the buy and sell trades lost is the large 30 point spread (NFP predictions are rarely that accurate).

Normally the firms offering this market offer a 1 point spread on markets like the FTSE and EUR/USD so you probably don't notice the cost. That's why we like tight spreads.

With a 30 point spread you can see the difference, it's more likely that the market will close inside the spread, i.e. where both buyers and sellers end up losing.

Hopefully we'll get a tighter spread for the June 2014 nonfarm payroll spread betting market.

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor, CleanFinancial
06-Jun-14 [1:45pm]

May 2014 Non-Farm Payrolls Report

In this monthly trading seminar, Jasper Lawler talks about expectations for May's NFP numbers in the lead up to the event and the reaction of key financial markets in the immediate aftermath of the release itself.

Update by Jasper Lawler, Market Analyst, CMC Markets
06-Jun-14 [10:31am] NFP Market Update

The NFP market has moved back to 200-230, i.e. perfectly spanning the predicted 215,000 new jobs.

Hopefully we'll get a tighter spread next month and see if a few of the more astute trades are happy to push the market around.

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor, CleanFinancial
06-Jun-14 [9:03am] I am looking forward to the NFP, we really need to get some action back into the markets.

Draghi had a go at making things interesting yesterday but we're already back at the same levels.

The US Q2 was tipped to be a stellar quarter after the awful winter. However, let's be honest, it hasn't worked out that way.

In fact a 'better than most' attitude surrounds the US right now, which is not that difficult considering the way things a going in Europe, Asia and South America.

Traders have certainly been confused and you only have to look at the ISM manufacturing data, which was revised three times, to see why.

Nevertheless, we have faith in the NFP which is expected to come in at 215k.

While many investors feel the jobs market is on the rise, if the report reveals any number which is a good distance from expectations and we will see the action that we have all been waiting for.

Update by Lewis Sturdy, Dealer, Capital Spreads

Readers please note:

The Downside of Trading the NFP Market?

  1. All spread betting is leveraged and therefore high risk, your losses can exceed your deposits

  2. It's a rather tricky market to predict, even experienced economists are often many thousands of jobs out in their predictions

  3. The spreads we have seen so far have been quite wide. Capital Spreads, InterTrader and Financial Spreads are all known for having competitive spreads. The spread is probably wide because it's a relatively new market and not straightforward for the spreads companies to hedge it off. Hopefully the spread will get tighter over time

Advert: Nonfarm Payroll Spread Betting, sponsored by
You can spread bet on the Nonfarm Payroll with Financial Spreads.

NFP Market Times

As you probably know, the NFP data is normally released on the first Friday of the month, however, the spread betting market is not always open for very long.

For the May 2014 release on Friday 6 June, the Financial Spreads and Capital Spreads markets only opened on Wednesday 4 June.

However the markets for the June 2014 release opened two weeks before the official release date of Thursday 3 July.

Investors should also note that whilst these firms offer a good number of 24 hour markets, the NFP market opens at 7am and closes at 9pm.

On the day of the release though, the market will close for trading 15 minutes before the data comes out. So with the data due at 1.30pm, the market closes at 1.15pm.

All times based on local UK time.

How to Spread Bet on the Nonfarm Payroll

How to Spread Bet on the Nonfarm Payroll?

As with a variety of financial markets, you can spread bet on the outcome of the latest US Nonfarm Payroll jobs report.

Looking at a spread betting site like FinancialSpreads, you can see they are pricing the Nonfarm Payroll (May) market at 210 - 240, where 1 point is equivalent to 1,000 new jobs.

This means that an investor could put a spread bet on the Nonfarm Payroll market:

  Nonfarm Payroll Trading Example Closing higher than 240, or
  Nonfarm Payroll Spread Betting Example Closing lower than 210

On the expiry date for this 'May' market, i.e. when the May report is released, 06-Jul-14.

When spread betting on the Nonfarm Payroll market you trade in x per point. So, if you risked 2 per point and the NFP moves 38 points then there would be a difference to your profits (or losses) of 76. 2 per point x 38 points = 76.

Nonfarm Payroll Spread Betting Example

Now, if we take the spread of 210 - 240 and make the assumptions that:
  • You've done your market analysis, and
  • Your research suggests that the next Nonfarm Payroll report will show that the US economy added more than 240,000 jobs
Then you could decide that you are going to buy a spread bet at 240 for a stake of 5 per point.

With such a bet you make a profit of 5 for every point that the Nonfarm Payroll futures market increases above 240.

Conversely, however, it also means that you will lose 5 for every point that the Nonfarm Payroll market moves lower than 240.

Put another way, should you buy a spread bet then your P&L is calculated by taking the difference between the closing price of the market and the initial price you bought the market at. You then multiply that difference in price by your stake.

So if the new Nonfarm Payroll report shows that 288,000 jobs had been added, as was the case when the April 2014 figure that was released on 2 May, the market would close at 288.

This would mean that you would make a profit:

P&L = (Closing Price - Opening Price) x stake
P&L = (288 - 240) x 5 per point stake
P&L = 48 x 5 per point stake
P&L = 240 profit

Investing, whether by spread betting or otherwise, doesn't always go to plan.

In this case, you had bet that more than 240,000 jobs would be added. Naturally, there may not be as many as that and the market could go down.

If the Nonfarm Payroll report had instead replicated the result from October 2013, where only 204,000 jobs were added, then the market would settle lower at 204 and you would make a loss:

P&L = (Closing Price - Opening Price) x stake
P&L = (204 - 240) x 5 per point stake
P&L = -36 x 5 per point stake
P&L = -180 loss

Note - The Nonfarm Payroll price data shown above is used as an example only.

Where Can I Find Live Spread Betting Prices and Charts for the Nonfarm Payroll?

Naturally any firms offering the market will have live prices when you log on to their platform.

With regards to the charts on the spread betting websites, the nonfarm market is only live for a few days before the release and it behaves like a futures market with a specific closing date. As such any charts will be fairly limited.

Having said that, Bloomberg has a useful chart of historical results, see above.

About the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP)?

What is the NFP?

This is typically the economic indicator which impacts the global markets the most in a given month (i.e. non just the American markets).

The NFP number represents the number of jobs added (or lost) in the US compared to the previous month.

As the 'nonfarm' name suggests, the data covers details on the majority of paid workers in the US. Exceptions include those employees working in farming, charities, non-profit organisations, government and private household employees.

What Does the Nonfarm Payroll Indicate?

How many new jobs have been created and therefore it is used as a strong indicator of how the US economy is performing.

Historical Nonfarm Payroll Results

Bloomberg has a useful chart showing the past numbers, see Bloomberg Nonfarm Payroll chart.

The table below also shows the actual results vs the consensus forecast since 2007.

Nonfarm Payroll Results

Release Date Report Period (Month) Actual Consensus Previous
05-Sep-14 Aug-14 - 226,000 209,000
01-Aug-14 Jul-14 209,000 233,000 298,000
03-Jul-14 Jun-14 298,000 215,000 224,000
06-Jun-14 May-14 224,000 218,000 282,000
02-May-14 Apr-14 282,000 210,000 203,000
04-Apr-14 Mar-14 203,000 200,000 197,000
07-Mar-14 Feb-14 197,000 149,000 129,000
07-Feb-14 Jan-14 129,000 185,000 75,000
10-Jan-14 Dec-13 75,000 196,000 241,000
06-Dec-13 Nov-13 241,000 180,000 200,000
08-Nov-13 Oct-13 200,000 125,000 163,000
22-Oct-13 Sep-13 163,000 180,000 193,000
06-Sep-13 Aug-13 193,000 180,000 104,000
02-Aug-13 Jul-13 104,000 184,000 188,000
05-Jul-13 Jun-13 188,000 165,000 176,000
07-Jun-13 May-13 176,000 170,000 165,000
03-May-13 Apr-13 165,000 145,000 138,000
05-Apr-13 Mar-13 138,000 200,000 268,000
08-Mar-13 Feb-13 268,000 160,000 119,000
01-Feb-13 Jan-13 119,000 160,000 196,000
04-Jan-13 Dec-12 196,000 150,000 161,000
07-Dec-12 Nov-12 161,000 93,000 138,000
02-Nov-12 Oct-12 138,000 125,000 148,000
05-Oct-12 Sep-12 148,000 113,000 142,000
07-Sep-12 Aug-12 142,000 125,000 141,000
03-Aug-12 Jul-12 141,000 100,000 45,000
06-Jul-12 Jun-12 45,000 90,000 87,000
01-Jun-12 May-12 87,000 150,000 77,000
04-May-12 Apr-12 77,000 170,000 154,000
06-Apr-12 Mar-12 154,000 203,000 240,000
09-Mar-12 Feb-12 240,000 210,000 275,000
03-Feb-12 Jan-12 275,000 150,000 203,000
06-Jan-12 Dec-11 203,000 150,000 100,000
02-Dec-11 Nov-11 100,000 119,000 100,000
04-Nov-11 Oct-11 100,000 95,000 210,000
07-Oct-11 Sep-11 210,000 73,000 104,000
02-Sep-11 Aug-11 104,000 75,000 127,000
05-Aug-11 Jul-11 127,000 91,000 46,000
08-Jul-11 Jun-11 46,000 90,000 25,000
03-Jun-11 May-11 25,000 190,000 232,000
06-May-11 Apr-11 232,000 196,000 221,000
01-Apr-11 Mar-11 221,000 190,000 194,000
04-Mar-11 Feb-11 194,000 183,000 63,000
04-Feb-11 Jan-11 63,000 121,000 121,000
07-Jan-11 Dec-10 121,000 135,000 71,000
03-Dec-10 Nov-10 71,000 146,000 172,000
05-Nov-10 Oct-10 172,000 61,000 -41,000
08-Oct-10 Sep-10 -41,000 5,000 -57,000
03-Sep-10 Aug-10 -57,000 -105,000 -54,000
06-Aug-10 Jul-10 -54,000 -65,000 -221,000
02-Jul-10 Jun-10 -221,000 -110 433,000
04-Jun-10 May-10 433,000 502,000 290,000
07-May-10 Apr-10 290,000 177,000 230,000
02-Apr-10 Mar-10 230,000 187,000 -14,000
05-Mar-10 Feb-10 -14,000 -30,000 -26,000
05-Feb-10 Jan-10 -26,000 15,000 -150,000
08-Jan-10 Dec-09 -150,000 -2,000 4,000
04-Dec-09 Nov-09 4,000 -125,000 -111,000
06-Nov-09 Oct-09 -111,000 -175,000 -219,000
02-Oct-09 Sep-09 -219,000 -188,000 -201,000
04-Sep-09 Aug-09 -201,000 -223,000 -276,000
07-Aug-09 Jul-09 -276,000 -345,000 -467,000
02-Jul-09 Jun-09 -467,000 -375,000 -322,000
05-Jun-09 May-09 -322,000 -521,000 -504,000
08-May-09 Apr-09 -504,000 -620,000 -699,000
03-Apr-09 Mar-09 -699,000 -658,000 -651,000
06-Mar-09 Feb-09 -651,000 -625,000 -655,000
06-Feb-09 Jan-09 -655,000 -500,000 -577,000
09-Jan-09 Dec-08 -577,000 -480,000 -584,000
05-Dec-08 Nov-08 -584,000 -325,000 -320,000
07-Nov-08 Oct-08 -320,000 -200,000 -284,000
03-Oct-08 Sep-08 -284,000 -95,000 -73,000
05-Sep-08 Aug-08 -73,000 -71,000 -51,000
01-Aug-08 Jul-08 -51,000 -75,000 -51,000
03-Jul-08 Jun-08 -51,000 -55,000 -49,000
06-Jun-08 May-08 -49,000 -52,000 -28,000
02-May-08 Apr-08 -28,000 -78,000 -80,000
04-Apr-08 Mar-08 -80,000 -50,000 -76,000
07-Mar-08 Feb-08 -76,000 30,000 -22,000
01-Feb-08 Jan-08 -22,000 55,000 82,000
04-Jan-08 Dec-07 82,000 70,000 115,000
07-Dec-07 Nov-07 115,000 70,000 170,000
02-Nov-07 Oct-07 170,000 80,000 96,000
05-Oct-07 Sep-07 96,000 100,000 93,000
07-Sep-07 Aug-07 93,000 108,000 68,000
03-Aug-07 Jul-07 68,000 135,000 69,000
06-Jul-07 Jun-07 69,000 120,000 190,000
01-Jun-07 May-07 190,000 140,000 80,000
04-May-07 Apr-07 80,000 100,000 177,000
06-Apr-07 Mar-07 177,000 118,000 97,000

Where to Find the Market?

This market is often listed under 'Specials' e.g. on Financial Spreads:
  1. Log into your Financial Spreads account
  2. Click 'Specials'
  3. Click 'NFP'
How to Find the NFP Market

Readers should note, if you can't see the NFP market listed on the platform then it might be because it's only available for a limited period before the nonfarms is released, see below.

Trading Risk Warning
'Nonfarm Payroll Spread Betting' edited by Jacob Wood, updated 18-Mar-15

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