A Guide to Spread Betting and Trading Twitter Shares
Clean Financial - The Financial Spread Betting Website
Spread Betting and Trading Twitter Shares

Spread Betting and Trading Twitter Shares

The CleanFinancial.com guide to trading Twitter shares.

Risk warning - if you are spread betting or trading CFDs on Twitter, please remember that these products carry a high level of risk to your capital and you can lose more than your initial deposit. Spread betting and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors so seek independent advice.

Twitter Analysis & News

Date Trading Update
03-Oct-17 [11:49am]

Twitter Share Price Update:

Rising Share Price The share price is trading higher than the 20DMA of $17.56 and higher than the 50DMA of $16.90.
  • Closing Price: $17.85
  • Falling Share Price 1 Day Change: Down -2.19%
  • Rising Share Price 5 Day Change: Up 5.81%

Long-Term TWTR Data

  • 52 Week High 52 Week High: $20.88
  • 52 Week Low 52 Week Low: $14.12
  • EPS(i): -$0.62
  • PE Ratio(i): -
  • Volume / Average Volume(i): 0.000m / 11.417m
  • Market Cap(i): $13,171m
  • Shares Outstanding(i): 738m
Price data from Google Finance. Also see Live TWTR Share Price & Charts and About Twitter for more information.

Update by Jenna Cutly, Editor, CleanFinancial
22-Jul-15 [11:39am] Twitter Analysts Want #Revenueturnaround

Update by IG Index
06-Feb-15 [10:59am]

Twitter Shares Rally on Google Tie Up and Strong Profits

Twitter shares look to open as much as 10% higher on Friday, despite a further slowdown in user growth, as fourth quarter profit and revenue beat expectations and the company forecasted higher user growth in the coming year.

Embattled CEO Dick Costello also confirmed the reported tie up between Twitter and Google to give Google access to internal systems to allow Tweets to more easily appear in search results and so make them available to a wider audience.

The issue of user growth is still a thorny one for Twitter and it's a fairly direct relationship that's been proven by Facebook; the more users, the more advertising revenue.

Monthly active user growth declined in every quarter of 2014 so if that trend continues, 2015 could even see the number of users drop.

The reason the Google agreement as well as the partnerships with third parties including Yahoo! Japan and Flipboard are significant is that it allows Twitter to refocus investor attention away from Twitter's own users and towards its part in the wider internet.

If Twitter can prove it can generate ad revenue from Tweets used outside of Twitter by non-users, suddenly user growth is not such an issue.

The reason Dick Costello has come in for so much stick is that Twitter has massive potential but it doesn't quite seem to be capitalising on it so far.

The impressive profit and revenue increases this quarter are a testament to Twitter's ability to monetise it's ecosystem, but while user growth lags and the third party partnerships remain unproven, the potential earnings growth is limited.

Update by Jasper Lawler, Market Analyst, CMC Markets
05-Feb-15 [10:26am]

Third Party Ad Plans Sees Twitter Shares Fly

On Tuesday, the social media giant announced it will sell ads outside of its platform to third party vendors.

This saw the share price jump by 6% as we look to the official Q4 earnings release this evening.

Slowing user growth and a lack of profitability have been amongst the biggest concerns for shareholders who have been exiting the stock since its peak in December 2013.

The move to put 'promoted tweets' on third-party sites and apps could address both concerns by providing an additional income source as well as reaching out to new users on other platforms.

Having made steady progress at decreasing the size of quarterly losses, Twitter is expected to make a pre-tax profit of $45.27m in the fourth quarter of 2014.

If Twitter can report evidence of acceleration in daily and monthly active user growth on top of pre-tax profits and the just-announced rejuvenated plans for monetisation, shares could have a lot of upside potential.

Update by Jasper Lawler, Market Analyst, CMC Markets
14-Nov-14 [10:49am]

Twitter's Credit is a Load of Junk

Shares in the social media firm dropped by more than 5% in late Thursday trading after rating agency Standard and Poor's assigned the company a junk credit rating with a stable outlook.

The sharp drop in Twitter's share price reflects not so much a surprise over the credit rating, but more a reflection of the concern that Twitter's all-out focus on user growth has not shown the strong results seen at Facebook.

If Twitter spends all its cash reinvesting in the company then user growth is expected to accelerate, but it actually added less new users in the last quarter than the previous one.

From a shareholder perspective, you want to see growing profits or accelerating user growth that should lead to higher future profits; Twitter are not providing either at the moment.

The longer it takes for Twitter to build its active user base, the longer it will be before it can flip the switch and start monetising them to build up the kind of huge cash piles seen at Facebook.

Update by Jasper Lawler, Market Analyst, CMC Markets
28-Oct-14 [10:48am]

Twitter Struggles to Match Facebook's User Growth

It would appear that the social media firm is just not growing fast enough to catch-up with Facebook.

The user base increased by 23% in the third quarter; a big jump but not as much as was seen by Facebook at the same age.

User engagement dropped by 7% in the quarter after the World Cup.

Twitter's CEO Dick Costolo's goal is the largest daily user group on the web but in its current incarnation Twitter just doesn't have the mass appeal of Facebook.

Having rallied off the lows at $30, Twitter shares have stalled out at $50 and could be in the midst of another leg lower.

Update by Jasper Lawler, Market Analyst, CMC Markets
27-Oct-14 [10:48am]

Twitter Monetisation Comes Under Scrutiny

With the latest set of results, a 21% YTD fall in share price puts the social media firm under pressure to demonstrate progress with monetisation and user growth.

In this trading video, IG talk to Stuart Miles from Pocket Lint about what the company needs to do to impress and what avenues need to be considered.

Update by IG Index
30-Jul-14 [1:12pm]

Twitter Rallies but Still Faces Monetisation Concerns

Expectation beating results from the social media firm has seen share prices rise, however, IG points out that there are still worries about outgoings and user monetisation.

Update by IG Index
30-Jul-14 [10:40am] Twitter Crows About Strong User Growth

Naysayers were out in force ahead of yesterday's earnings report, arguing that the social network could never outdo the user growth of Facebook after the stock had lost more than half its value from the high last year.

Twitter bears were sent reeling after the company grew its user base by 16m, the biggest amount since the first quarter of 2013 sending the stock higher by 30% after hours.

There is some caution however that the user growth could have been a one-off, helped by the World Cup.

If it was just the World Cup that caused the growth, then next quarter could be setup for a big disappointment.

This analysis may be a little harsh in the long-term though, Twitter comes into its own for spreading news and opinion on world events and there will always be world events, it just happens that the World Cup is one of the bigger ones.

Update by Jasper Lawler, Market Analyst, CMC Markets
30-Apr-14 [11:03am] Twitter Slumps Despite Strong Earnings as Users Disappoint

Twitter traded down over 10% after hours having beaten earnings and revenues estimates.

This just goes to show when talking about social networking companies; it's all about the users.

The users create the content and it's the users clicking on the advertisements.

The number of users on Twitter increased 5.8% in the quarter, higher than the previous quarter but much lower than analyst forecasts.

At the current price, the market is pricing in a doubling of revenue each year, which seems next pretty implausible if you're only adding roughly 20% more users in the year.

The question is how can Twitter grow its user base?

It could buy users like Facebook did by buying Instagram and Whatsapp, but it really doesn't have the cash to do so.

Really, it needs to offer a wider appeal; tweeters are predominantly those who want to receive up-to-the-minute news updates, particularly those in the media as opposed to Facebook that is increasingly attracting an older user base who have felt the need to joint to catch up on what friends and family are up to.

The other aspect is how active or 'engaged' the users are which might be something Twitter can better control.

The company has recently teamed up with Sky to include tweets interacting with TV programmes and has bought Gnip a social analytics data company to help monetise the data they have.

Realistically though, the market for technology stocks including Twitter has got ahead of itself.

The market expected Twitter to grow as fast as Facebook has, it is growing but not that fast and the price of the stock is moving down to reflect that.

The concern will now be that other technology stocks and even other growth stocks will start to do the same.

Update by Jasper Lawler, Market Analyst, CMC Markets
06-Feb-14 [9:50am]

Are Twitter's Q4 User Numbers Reliable?

As we have reported before, the firm likes to use non-GAAP accounting principles but that's not my query right now.

The firm has just reported some impressive user-based growth figures (see below).

However, investors should remember that the firm IPO'd in November with a lot of positive hype and PR.

It's not unreasonable to assume that the number of 'new users' and 'active users' jumped during this period of free PR and a lot of column inches.

If so, whilst the Twitter user base is no doubt growing, the growth may not be as steep as the latest numbers suggest.

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor, CleanFinancial
06-Feb-14 [9:01am]

Twitter Q4 2013 Earnings Update

Twitter have announced their Q4 adjusted EPS at $0.02 as expected. Q4 revenues were $243m vs $112m in Q4 2012.

Highlights of the latest earnings report include:
  • Average Monthly Active Users (MAUs) were 241m as of 31 December 2013, an increase of 30% YoY
  • Mobile MAUs reached 184m in Q4 2013, an increase of 37% YoY
  • Mobile represents 76% of total MAUs
  • Timeline views reached 148bn in Q4 2013, an increase of 26% YoY
  • Advertising revenue per thousand timeline views reached $1.49 in the fourth quarter of 2013, an increase of 76% YoY
Offering some guidance, the network has forecast:
  • 1Q revenue to be $230m - $240m, with an adjusted EBITDA of $10m - $16m
  • FY 2014 revenue to be $1,150m - $1,200m, with an adjusted EBITDA of $150m to $180m
Is the little birdie tweeting the truth?

Caution is needed, Twitter has been known to use non-GAAP accounting principles e.g. see the stories below on 10-Nov-13 and 12-Nov-13.

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor, CleanFinancial
20-Jan-14 [1:57pm]

Longer Trading Hours for Twitter Shares

IG have now extended the hours for their Twitter market, investors can now trade the TWTR stock from 9am to 1am (Mon to Thur) and 9am to 10pm (Fri), London time.

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor, CleanFinancial
08-Jan-14 [6:00pm]

Twitter 'Valuation Is Excessive'

Cantor Fitzgerald have downgraded the stock to sell from hold. That's the third time in 3 weeks that Twitter has been downgraded.

Youssef Squali, the Cantor analyst covering the microblogging site said the "valuation is excessive".

According to Thomson Reuters, 20 of the 26 analysts that cover Twitter now have the equivalent of "hold" or "sell" ratings on the stock.

For more details see the wsj.com article, Twitter Downgraded Yet Again.

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor, CleanFinancial
12-Nov-13 [12:06pm]

Are the Losses at Twitter Being Correctly Reported?

Most big firms use GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) when they produce their financial reports.

However, according to a new report, Twitter used non-GAAP for its pre-IPO filings in order to reduce losses for the first nine months of 2013 from $134m to $44m.

Perhaps there was a character limit in its filing.

For more see the Forbes.com article 'These 20 Tech Firms Report The Most Fictionalized Earnings'.

Update by Jenna Cutly, Editor, CleanFinancial
12-Nov-13 [11:44am] Twitter had a solid day yesterday climbing from a low of $39.38 to close just off the highs at $42.92.

Update by Jenna Cutly, Editor, CleanFinancial
11-Nov-13 [10:38am]

Ouch! Twitter Falls Over $8.50

On Friday night, the Twitter spreads market closed at $41.28. That is still well above the IPO offer price of $26.00 but certainly some way off Thursday's high of $49.95.

Be careful if you are feeling bullish and want to buy the stock on the spread betting market.

Twitter chart after 2 days of trading:

Twitter Shares After 2 Days of Trading

Even if you are trading lower stakes like ?1/¢ that's a 1,528 point move back to Thursday's open price and therefore a potential ?1,528 loss, so make sure you are using a Stop Loss or Guaranteed Stop loss order.

And, of course, Facebook showed us that tech stocks with poor fundamentals can fall far below their IPO price.

As Matt Basi of CMC said below, "...the trend in recent history is for tech IPOs to be cheaper 12 months down the line than they are on day one".

It may be more prudent to sit this one out whilst the stock settles. Or, at the very least, make sure you are on top of your risk management and use Stops/Guaranteed Stops.

Update by Gordon Childs, Editor, CleanFinancial
10-Nov-13 [7:45pm]

More Queries Over Twitter Data

The FT has highlighted Twitter, Groupon and Facebook in an article on tech firms and dubious accounting.

According to the FT, the SEC has "forced Groupon to stop talking about 'CSOI', a measure of profits that, hilariously, excluded marketing costs."

The US regulator has also been querying user figures cited social media companies.

"Twitter has again brought attention to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, EBITDA, when it is presented with expenses from stock options granted to employees added back.

"For Twitter, adjusted EBITDA, for the first nine months of 2013 was $31m. But the number was positive only because $79m in stock compensation expense was left out.

"Whether or not these expenses are ignored in earnings calculations, observers should think hard about share counts.

"Equity grants comprise 25% Twitter's 700m total diluted shares. Facebook's reported diluted share count is up a third from June last year.

"Company models that use static shares outstanding to calculate share values should reflect the cash expense of buying back shares, or otherwise ensure operating expenses include the full costs of paying employees."

This kind of accounting will certainly make life interesting, or perhaps uncomfortable, for long-term investors.

Update by Gordon Childs, Editor, CleanFinancial
08-Nov-13 [4:07pm] Will Twitter Drift Lower After Debut Jump?

Twitter made its amazing debut on the stock market in the United States yesterday.

The stock opened at $45.10, a massive $19 jump from its offer price of $26 closing at $49.90, up more than 73% from their initial price. Twitter is now valued at $24.9 billion.

Demand has clearly been through the roof with institutions all scrambling to get a piece of the Twitter pie.

Management at Twitter were on the road at the end of last month, mustering support.

There was concern about the company's ability to grow rather than how it will monetise its business through advertising and data licensing, however it seems management did just enough to sooth investors.

It's quite a small free-float with the company raising $2.1 billion by selling 80.5 million, which it will use for international expansion and acquisitions.

For Twitter, the performance of the share price is key following Facebook's anti-climax last year which haunted Twitter management heading into the IPO.

This could be the same kind of bubble; Twitter's losses widened in the first nine months of 2013 to $134 million from $70.7 million for the same period in 2012.

Although we saw a staggering entry by Twitter yesterday, unless management can continue to reassure the market that this company's growth profile looks as phenomenal as they claim, we could see the stock drift lower.

Update by Ishaq Siddiqi, Market Analyst, ETX Capital
08-Nov-13 [10:22am] Twitter IPO

Fears of a Nasdaq/Facebook-esque 5 hour uncrossing proved unfounded as NYSE managed to deliver an orderly open in the social network, albeit a good hour after the opening bell.

The slight delay can be forgiven in the context of the 70% jump from the listing price to the first open market print, and the general sense of euphoria around the IPO.

Given the trend in recent history for tech IPOs to be cheaper 12 months down the line than they are on day one, it may prove prudent to try and ignore the hype around this one; though rules are of course made to be broken.

Update by Matt Basi, Head of Sales Trading, CMC Markets
07-Nov-13 [5:07pm]

Let the Trading Commence

So far, in no particular order, Financial Spreads, Capital Spreads, IG, InterTrader, City Index, CMC, Spreadex and ETX Capital are all running Twitter markets.

Early Price Moves

By 4pm the spread betting market on Financial Spreads hit a high of $49.95. It has since dropped off and spent most of the time in the $45-$46 region.

Short Selling the Share Price

Note that because it is difficult for the companies offering the market to currently offload any liabilities on short positions you may not be able to place a 'sell trade' unless you are already long of the market and are closing a position.

Volatile Trading

Be careful if you are trading this market. With most firms you are trading on a ?X per 1¢ basis and so it's looking like a volatile market.

Psychological Trading Levels

Looking at the charts, there seems to be support at $45 and resistance at $46 and $50.

So with no profits and little historical trading data it looks like the markets are relying on the larger psychological levels.

Update by Gordon Childs, Editor, CleanFinancial
07-Nov-13 [2:44pm]

The Story of the Twitter IPO

For a look at our coverage of the IPO and how the grey markets predicted a strong start for the micro blogging network, see 'The Story of the Twitter IPO'.

Update by Gordon Childs, Editor, CleanFinancial

Readers please note:

About Twitter

Twitter IPOíd on 7 Nov 2013 at $26. Within the first few hours of trading, the spread betting markets hit $49.95.

According to the tech firmís IPO Registration Statement:
  • The company lost $69m in H1 2013 on revenues of $254m
  • Roughly 85% of revenue comes from advertising, data licensing is the second largest source of revenue
  • Twitter has +218m monthly users
  • There are up to 500m tweets per day
  • +75% of users accessed Twitter.com via a mobile phone in 2013
Twitter was founded in 2006 by Jack Dorsey, Biz Stone and Evan Williams.


Suite 900, 1355 Market Street
San Francisco
CA 94103
Phone +1-415-2229670

Useful Links and Data Sources

  • For official updates from Twitter, just follow @twitter i.e. the account for news and information about the company
  • Twitter.com (this page is not very useful for investors)

Where Can I Spread Bet on Twitter?

At the moment, investors can trade Twitter with an account from a number of companies:

Where Can I Trade Twitter CFDs?

You can currently trade Twitter contracts for differences (CFDs) with: This market may be available with other firms. Note that we also have a live Twitter CFD chart.

Where Can I Find Live Spread Betting Prices and Charts for Twitter?

This interactive CFDs chart will offer users a nice look at the Twitter market.

The Plus 500 chart above usually shows the Twitter futures contract.

If you want live spread betting prices & charts for Twitter, you probably need a spread betting account.

A spreads account also lets you trade on shorter-term spot markets. Readers should note that such accounts are normally dependent on credit and status checks.

If you were to trade then you should remember that contracts for difference and financial spread trading involve a significant level of risk to your funds and losses could exceed your initial deposit.

Professional Level Charts for Twitter Shares

Whilst the charting packages normally differ between platforms, in order to help your trading analysis, most charts generally have handy features, including:
  • A large range of intervals e.g. 1 minute, 2 minute, 5 minutes, 4 hours, 1 day and so on
  • A variety of chart types e.g. line, OHLC and candlestick charts
  • Tools for drawing/adding features e.g. Fibonacci fans, time zones and arcs

Charts from Financial Spreads also come with other benefits such as:
  • Back Testing, Tailored Indicators and Analysis tools
  • Helpful chart overlays e.g. Ichimoku Clouds, EMA, Wilder's Smoothing and so on
  • Over 30 indicators e.g. Stochastic, Standard Deviation, Volume Index and so on
  • Customised alerts that trigger when your chosen market hits a certain price

Example FinancialSpreads tech sector trading chart

Twitter Trading Guide - Example Chart

The following firms offer real-time charts and prices:
Advert: Spread Betting and Trading Twitter Shares, sponsored by FinancialSpreads.com.
You can spread bet on Twitter with Financial Spreads.

Where Can I Spread Bet on Twitter for Free?

Speculating does involve risks, but if you would like to try a Demo Account, where you can access professional level charts and trial spread trading, then please see below for more details.

When thinking about which investment option is right for you, don't forget that spread betting in the UK is currently tax free*, i.e. it is exempt from income tax, stamp duty and capital gains tax.

If you are looking for a free online trading platform then you should keep in mind that you are able to take a view on Twitter with no brokers' fees, and zero commissions, through providers like:

Free Demo Account

City Index offer a free Practice Account so you can try spread betting, including markets like Twitter.

How to Spread Bet on Twitter

How to Spread Bet on Twitter?

If an investor is looking to speculate on Twitter then one option is spread betting on the Twitter share price.

The Capital Spreads platform have priced the Twitter Rolling Daily market at $46.95 - $47.05. This means an investor could put a spread bet on the Twitter shares:

  Twitter Spread Betting Example Rising above $47.05, or
  Twitter Trading Example Falling below $46.95

When financial spread betting on American shares you trade in £x per cent. As a result, if you choose to risk £2 per cent and the Twitter share price moves $0.39 then that would change your profit/loss by £78. £2 per cent x $0.39 = £78.

You can also spread bet on this market in Dollars or Euros, e.g. $x per cent.

Rolling Daily Shares Markets

This is a Rolling Daily Market which means that unlike a normal spread betting futures market, there is no settlement date. You do not have to close your trade, should it still be open at the end of the trading day, it just rolls over into the next day.

If your bet does roll over and you are speculating on the market to:

  Twitter Trading Example Go up - then you are charged a small overnight financing fee, or
  Twitter Trading Example Go down - then you will usually receive a small credit to your account

For a worked example please see Rolling Daily Spread Betting.

Twitter Trading Example

Now, if we continue with the spread of $46.95 - $47.05 and assume:
  • You have done your analysis of the stock market, and
  • Your research suggests the Twitter share price is likely to move higher than $47.05
Then you may decide that you want to buy at $47.05 and risk, letís say, £3 per cent.

This means that you win £3 for every cent that the Twitter shares increase and move above $47.05. Nevertheless, you will make a loss of £3 for every cent that the Twitter market decreases below $47.05.

Looked at another way, should you buy a spread bet then your P&L is calculated by taking the difference between the closing price of the market and the price you bought the market at. You then multiply that difference in price by your stake.

Therefore, if after a few sessions the share price moved higher then you might want to close your position in order to lock in your profit.

As an example, if the market increased then the spread, determined by the spread betting company, could be adjusted to $47.54 - $47.64. To close your position you would sell at $47.54. As a result, with the same £3 stake you would make a profit of:

Your P&L = (Settlement Level - Initial Level) x stake
Your P&L = ($47.54 - $47.05) x £3 per cent stake
Your P&L = $0.49 x £3 per cent stake
Your P&L = 49¢ x £3 per cent stake
Your P&L = £147 profit

Spread betting on equities doesn't always work out as you would have liked. In this case, you wanted the share price to rise. Nevertheless, it can also decrease.

If the tech firm started to drop then you could close your trade to limit your losses.

If the spread fell to $46.50 - $46.60 then this means you would settle your spread bet by selling at $46.50. If so, this would result in a loss of:

Your P&L = (Settlement Level - Initial Level) x stake
Your P&L = ($46.50 - $47.05) x £3 per cent stake
Your P&L = -$0.55 x £3 per cent stake
Your P&L = -55¢ x £3 per cent stake
Your P&L = -£165 loss

Note: Twitter Rolling Daily spread quoted as of 07-Nov-13.

Advert: Spread Betting and Trading Twitter Shares, sponsored by FinancialSpreads.com.
You can spread bet on Twitter with Financial Spreads.

People Who Tweet about Spread Betting

If you want to follow people who tweet about spread betting/CFDs, we've added a few options below.

Company Tweets and Analysts: Bloggers:

The Twitter IPO

Here we take a look at the 2 months leading up to Twitter listing on the New York stock exchange. We keep a close eye on the grey markets that a number of firms were running prior to the IPO.

Date Trading Update
07-Nov-13 [11:09am]

More Spread Betting and CFD Twitter Markets

I've just been asking around for who else is setting up markets.

An unofficial comment from Financial Spreads, "We have got markets set up but need to get the prices through our systems to update spread and margin values".

So it looks like the usual suspects will all being running markets by mid-afternoon.

Update by Gordon Childs, Editor, CleanFinancial
07-Nov-13 [10:10am]

When Can I Spread Bet on Twitter Shares?

You can currently trade the Twitter IPO grey market with ETX and IG but that market may be a little superfluous given last night's IPO statement from the US firm (see the story below).

If you want to spread bet on the Twitter shares when they list on the NYSE later today then, assuming there are no technical glitches like the Facebook IPO, we are expecting most of the larger financial spread betting companies to be offering a Twitter market by the end of the day.

We can already see that IG have set up daily and futures Twitter markets, although it doesn't look like you can add any trading orders to these markets yet.

Note that Twitter spread betting and CFD markets may not be immediately available at 2.30pm.

It may take a little bit of time for any auctions to go through, prices feeds to be checked etc. It could be 3pm before you can trade.

Update by Gordon Childs, Editor, CleanFinancial
07-Nov-13 [8:56am]

Twitter IPO Pricing Update

With Twitter listing on the New York Stock Exchange today the official Twitter account for investors gave an update last night on the IPO.

"We've priced our initial public offering of 70,000,000 shares of our common stock at a price to the public of $26 per share.

"In addition we've guaranteed the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to 10,500,000 additional shares of common stock.

"Our shares are expected to begin trading on the NYSE on November 7 under the symbol TWTR."

The micro-blogging site had originally set a range of $17-$20.

Trading the Price of Twitter

The IG 'Market Cap' market is currently priced at $22.55bn - $24.55bn and the ETX Capital 'Market Cap' market is priced at $22.5bn - $24.5bn

Given the above statement, it looks like there's little value left in these markets. Spread bettors and CFD traders may be better off waiting for the Twitter markets proper to open.

Besides, financial spread betting markets based on the actual share price normally have much tighter spreads than the IPO grey markets.

Update by Jenna Cutly, Editor, CleanFinancial
05-Nov-13 [8:00am]

Social Network Valued at $17.4bn

With Twitter raising the price range of its IPO by 25% to $23-$25, that values the social network at $17.4bn including restricted stock units and options.

The offering will be valued at $2bn should the top price range be achieved with approximately 13% of the options being sold.

Twitter starts trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday.

Update by Alex Conroy, Trader, Spreadex
04-Nov-13 [5:20pm] Twitter Stock Surprise

In a surprise move today, the Twitter has revised up its IPO price, boosting its opening share price range to the $23/$25 mark.

This puts its market cap at around $13.5bn on day one, still well below the $24bn market cap that IG clients think it will start at, according to our grey market.

Update by David Jones, Chief Market Strategist, IG Index
04-Nov-13 [3:57pm] Twitter has announced that it would be raising its IPO price to $23-$25 per share for the 70m shares it is looking to sell.

Update by Michael Hewson, Senior Market Analyst, CMC Markets
01-Nov-13 [4:31pm] Next week sees the IPO of the much anticipated Twitter placement.

While the company itself is pricing shares between $17 and $20, IG's grey market implies the share price may double on the first day with market capitalisation trading around $22bn.

Update by Brenda Kelly, Senior Market Strategist, IG Index
16-Oct-13 [11:13am] Twitter IPO Valuation Continues to Rise

IG are currently pricing the IPO grey market at $20.55bn - $22.55bn and ETX Capital are pricing it at $20bn - $21bn.

If you like your arbitrage, don't hold your breath on this market. Whilst the market isn't that liquid, the spreads are wide. We haven't seen an arb'ing opportunity yet.

Twitter Dividends?

According to Alastair McCaig of IG, "Twitter is unlikely to be offering dividends any time soon. However, as Twitter is a social network, that will certainly help when it comes to generating its own publicity".

Update by Jenna Cutly, Editor, CleanFinancial
16-Oct-13 [10:53am]

When Will Twitter Float / IPO?

According to Alastair McCaig of IG, "Using current fillings as a guideline it is likely that we will see Twitter float around the middle of November".

Update by Gordon Childs, Editor, CleanFinancial
16-Oct-13 [9:59am] Twitter Chooses the NYSE Rather than the NASDAQ

For the last 20 years the NASDAQ has been the natural home for the majority of newly floated technology stocks. However, in the last couple of years, the New York Stock Exchange has made efforts to reverse this trend.

Recent successes include LinkedIn and Yelp. Twitter will now be added to that list.

While the NASDAQ did secure Facebook, the launch day of the social network ended up a spectacular disaster after the trading platform crashed.

Update by Alastair McCaig, Market Analyst, IG Index
09-Oct-13 [9:43am] Twitter Grey Markets are Still Exciting Investors

After hitting a high of $19.25bn two days ago, the IG grey market on the level of the Twitter IPO, has settled a little.

IG are currently quoting 178.5 to 188.5 ($17.85bn to $18.85bn).

ETX are also running a grey market but their quote is riding slightly higher at 1800 to 1900 ($18bn to $19bn).

Note that IG and ETX are pricing the markets in slightly different ways, hence we've given the price in billions to make it easier to compare.

Update by Gordon Childs, Editor, CleanFinancial
07-Oct-13 [8:23pm] And the IG twitter grey market hit a new high today, at one point the buy price spiked to 192.5 ($19.25bn)

Update by Jenna Cutly, Editor, CleanFinancial
07-Oct-13 [11:13am]

Twitter Pricing Update

Since we last looked at the IPO price estimates, the buy price has gone up to a cheeky $18.5bn.

Part of this increase could be down to the fact that the company is only looking to raise about $1bn when it lists.

Grey Market IPO Valuations

  • IG: $17.8bn to $18.4bn
  • ETX Capital: $17.5bn to $18.5bn

IG Twitter IPO Chart

October Twitter IPO Chart

Update by Gordon Childs, Editor, CleanFinancial
04-Oct-13 [11:18am]

S-1 Twitter Filing (IPO Registration Statement)

To read the S-1 Twitter filing with the US regulator see SEC.gov Twitter S-1.

The S-1 gives some interesting details on Twitter in a surprisingly digestible form.

Twitter IPO by Numbers

According to the papers that the social network filed with the US regulator:
  • Twitter want to raise $1bn by listing on the stock market
  • The tech company made a loss of $69m in the first six months of 2013, H1 2013 revenues were $254m
  • Circa 85% of Twitter's revenue comes from advertising on its website. Data licensing is the second largest source of revenue
  • Twitter has more than 218m monthly users
  • There are up to 500m tweets per day
  • More than 75% of Twitter users accessed the site from their mobile phone in 2013
The timing of the IPO is still to be confirmed.

Update by Gordon Childs, Editor, CleanFinancial
26-Sep-13 [2:25pm] With the London Stock Exchange seeing an increase in company IPOs, IG takes a quick look at the latest movements in their Royal Mail and Twitter grey markets.

Update by Alastair McCaig, Market Analyst, IG Index
26-Sep-13 [12:10pm]

Lessons from the Last Big Tech Stock to IPO

Looking at the moves in the Facebook share price, investors thinking of trading Twitter could be in for a bit of a rollercoaster.

Facebook shares listed at $38 per share on the NASDAQ in May 2013.

Whilst the NASDAQ stock exchange experienced some well publicised technical problems during the IPO, Facebook also had to overcome a range of other issues when it listed.

Having said that, whilst the stock hit a low of $17.58 in September 2013, it hit an all-time earlier this week at $49.26. That values the social network at $120bn.

For more details on how Facebook managed to turn around their numbers (and investor sentiment) see our report on How Facebook Shares Turned Around.

Update by Jenna Cutly, Editor, CleanFinancial
26-Sep-13 [10:35am]

Twitter Analysis

If you are looking at the difficult prospect of pricing up a company that hasn't been listed on a stock exchange you need to consider the fundamentals of the company. This should include SWOT analysis to help weigh up the pros and cons.

Weaknesses and Threats:
  • Twitter is very much a mobile based product and it is more difficult to monetise mobile users than web users

  • The cost-based barriers to entry are relatively low, as are the tech-based barriers to entry

  • The other big social networks could encroach on the space

  • What happens if twitter becomes pass? and it's no longer a service that the celebrity Twitterers want to be seen using?

    If it becomes 'uncool,' it could start a vicious circle of celebrities (publicly) closing their accounts, fewer tweets, being seen as more uncool etc. and we could see a rapid decline not dissimilar to the demise of MySpace

Strengths and Opportunities:

On the plus side, a cynic might say it's a beautiful symbiotic relationship between celebrity and a cheap marketing/PR platform.
  • Twitter has a very large group of celebrities using (and essentially advertising) its service multiple times per day

  • Whilst the cost-based and tech-based barriers to entry are relatively low, the key barrier, for a company looking to create a similar service, is needing to generate a very large group of celebrities who frequently use its service.

    Why would an existing celebrity with an excellent marketing platform leave twitter? Justin Bieber has 44.9m followers, whilst 40.1m users follow Lady Gaga and Rihanna has 31.8m followers.

    Yes, the 'celebs' might also use another service, but whilst they have access to one of the best free marketing/PR machines they are unlikely to leave twitter in their droves.

  • As well as the above, Facebook is proving that you can successfully monetise mobile users

The above is just my personal opinion and, whether you are planning on buying or shorting the IPO/shares, this is intended to highlight just some of the risks of trading the firm. As always, this is not investment advice.

And no, I do not follow Bieber, it would be like following my little brother.

Update by Jenna Cutly, Editor, CleanFinancial
18-Sep-13 [3:43pm]

Twitter Valuation Rises by a Few Billion Dollars

According to David Jones, Chief Market Strategist at IG, the Twitter market is looking 'optimistic'.

The grey market initially valued Twitter at around $10bn, quickly rose to $15bn and the valuation is now at $17.1bn - $17.6bn.

Twitter Grey Market IPO Price

As you can see from the Twitter IPO chart below, the market has (fairly) steadily risen over the last few days and added a couple of billion dollars to the estimated value of the tech firm.

Twitter IPO Chart

Note that according to Jones:
  • At the point where Twitter hit $15bn, 95% of trades were 'buys'
  • The market is not being set by the trading floor at IG, it is being driven by IG's clients

Update by Gordon Childs, Editor, CleanFinancial
16-Sep-13 [12:39pm] So the IG 'Twitter market capitalisation' grey market is currently at 142 - 147 (where a point is $100m). So despite my scepticism below, that's a reasonably tight spread for a tricky market to offer.

Twitter Grey Market

Update by Gordon Childs, Editor, CleanFinancial
13-Sep-13 [5:02pm]

ETX Capital Offer a Grey Market on Twitter

According to Ishaq Siddiqi, Market Strategist at ETX Capital, "Private investors are valuing the social networking service at about $10bn. Speculation however, suggests it could be north of that figure, up to $14bn.

"Given the hype and drama surrounding Facebook last year, it is possible that Twitter will adopt a more low-key approach, prudently delivering information to the market before the roadshow begins."

According to Siddiqi investors are keen to understand:
  • How the company intends to monetise its business through advertising
  • The acquisition pipeline
  • How Twitter will address the seemingly-unregulated tweets that users can send/publish

ETX Capital Twitter Market

ETX's current spread for the Twitter IPO is $10.5bn - $11.5bn.

Update by Gordon Childs, Editor, CleanFinancial
13-Sep-13 [4:34pm] IG Offer a Twitter IPO Grey Market

Twitter, the social media company, has announced plans to float on the stock market.

IG is offering a grey market as to what the market capitalisation will be at the IPO, and our price is currently suggesting a value of $13 billion.

Update by David Madden, Market Analyst, IG Index
13-Sep-13 [1:11pm] The Twitter Valuation

According to some of the more informed looking tweets using #TwitterIPO, there is a rather broad "valuation of $14-20bn" and "The last private equity valuation was $10.5bn"

According to the BBC story on the Twitter IPO, "Investors value Twitter, at more than $10bn (?6.3bn).

"Twitter has given no further details as to the timing or [share] price of the offering."

And according to advertising consultancy eMarketer "[Twitter] is on track to post revenues of $583m in 2013".

Update by Gordon Childs, Editor, CleanFinancial
13-Sep-13 [12:35pm] Twitter Announce IPO

So Twitter have finally announced their intention to list on the US stock market.

An official tweet on 12 Sep 2013 said "We've confidentially submitted an S-1 to the SEC for a planned IPO. This Tweet does not constitute an offer of any securities for sale."

Note that the term 'confidential' refers to the fact that the numbers they have submitted to the SEC are confidential, it doesn't refer to the news of the IPO being confidential.

Update by Gordon Childs, Editor, CleanFinancial

Readers please note:

Trading Risk Warning
'Spread Betting and Trading Twitter Shares' edited by Jacob Wood, updated 03-Oct-17

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