Commodities Technical Analysis
Daily technical analysis reports for popular commodities markets including crude oil, gold, silver, copper, natural gas and coffee.
This analysis covers both short-term and long-term price movements. Each analyst interprets the support/resistance levels and gives their view on the direction of the market. For more technical analysis, also see:
Commodities Technical Analysis - Updated: 22 February 2017
|| [8:07am] Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis (30 mins chart)
Comment: as long as $110 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
- Brent Crude Oil pivot point: $110.00
- Our preference: SHORT positions below $110 with $108 & $107.6 as next targets.
- Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of $110 will call for a rebound towards $110.45 & $111.
|| [8:07am] Silver Technical Analysis (30 mins chart)
Comment: as long as $19.73 is resistance, likely decline to $19.05.
- Silver pivot point: $19.73
- Our preference: SHORT positions below $19.73 with targets @ $19.05 & $18.85.
- Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of $19.73 will call for a rebound towards $19.9 & $20.2.
For more commodity views or technical analysis see:
Applying Technical Analysis to Gold
Below we have an older, but still useful, technical analysis case study on the gold market by Shai Heffetz, InterTrader, 14-Feb-2012.
When the price of gold briefly touched $1,921 on 6 September 2011, most analysts believed that it was on its way to $2,000 per troy ounce.
It was higher than the previous peak of $1,911.65 we saw on 23 August 2011, which supported this view.
Later that same day, however, the commodity slipped back to $1,875.10 and we have not seen anything close to $1,900 since.
Many fundamental analysts insist that the gold spread betting market is very likely to breach $2,000 in the not so distant future.
The Eurozone crisis and continued financial economic and financial problems in the USA seem to support this view.
The chart below shows that, purely from a commodities analysis point of view, we are currently in a medium-term bull phase.
The price is well above the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo cloud and the green Chinkou Span line is higher than the price of 26 periods ago, showing that the bulls have had the upper hand since the end of December 2011.
In the past few days, however, we have seen some weakness and the current price is well below the recent maximum of $1,762.85 we saw on 3 February. The price has also dropped below the red Tenkan Sen line, confirming that a correction is underway.
We are a long way from where we can advise a short trade, however. For this, wait for a clear break below the Ichimoku cloud.
For those spread betting on gold to go up, it would be prudent to wait for at least one or two closes above the recent maximum of $1,762.85.
Applying Technical Analysis to Precious Metals
Below we have an older, but still useful, case study on the gold and silver markets by Shai Heffetz, InterTrader, 30-Nov-2011.
Traditionally, metals such as gold and silver have been regarded as safe havens in times of financial turmoil.
In the current unstable economic climate, where even the prices of these two metals sometimes fluctuate wildly, some investors might ask the question whether this is still the case.
To give a sensible answer we have to take a longer-term view. The weekly chart below depicts the price of the silver spread betting market since March 2007.
We can see that on 19 October 2008 the price reached a low of just above $8.60. As a result, the current price of just below $32.00 represents a growth rate of nearly 400% in three years.
This growth is way above that achieved by any stock market index and is a clear indication that silver is still an excellent store of value, despite the fact that it is currently trading well below its recent maximum price.
The daily chart below offers a shorter term view of the silver market. This shows us that, after the disastrous drop on 22 and 23 September, when the price went from $39.80 to $30.80 in two days, silver has been moving mainly sideways.
The current price of $31.93 is slightly above the recent minimum. Commodities analysis suggests that silver is presently emerging from the Ichimoku cloud in a downward direction, however given the recent price behaviour this is not enough to warrant a short trade.
The blue Kijun Sen line is still in the cloud and a cautious trader would wait for a close below $29.93, which we briefly saw on 20 October 2011, before risking a short trade.
Any close above the Ichimoku cloud might be an indication that the long-term bull trend is resuming.
'Commodities Technical Analysis' edited by Jacob Wood, updated 22-Feb-17
Commodities Analysis Index - an Index of Daily Commodities Analysis articles covering Trends, Supports and Resistance Levels for some of the major commodities markets including Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Silver and Coffee.
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