Trading Update
10-Jan-14, 9:23am:

Markets are Forecasting a High NFP Number



The Dow is potentially in a flag formation and the UK 100 is looking rather volatile.



Update by Craig Inglis, Head of Product Development,
10-Jan-14, 9:41am:

Investors Remain Sellers of the Euro



And it could be a good day for a dollar. Why? Have a look at this week’s technical analysis video.

(it’s only 7 mins long).

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor,
10-Jan-14, 9:41am:

Why Haven’t UK Retail Shares Suffered More?



This video analysis takes a quick look at the current retail market – UK Retail Stocks Remain Surprisingly Strong.

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor,
10-Jan-14, 11:09am:

European Stock Indices are Rather Buoyant



The FTSE is up 55 points, the DAX is up 62 points and the Euro Stoxx is up by around 21 points. Here is this morning’s market bite:



Update by Ishaq Siddiqi, Market Analyst,
10-Jan-14, 12:25pm: The new trading video on our blog looks at the latest FOMC minutes and expectations ahead of the US Non-Farm Payrolls.

Does Fed Tapering Mean that Good Data is Good News Again?

Update by Gordon Childs, Editor,
13-Jan-14, 9:08am:

Dollar Weakness Moves the Global Markets



After the shock Non-Farm Payrolls number on Friday we have seen some large moves:
  • EUR/USD has broken higher
  • USD/JPY had a very bad session
  • On the back of the USD/JPY move, the Nikkei has also had a bad day
  • Gold has broken up through resistance
  • The Dow Jones has created some important technical selling signals, the MACD and Stochastics are not positive



Update by Craig Inglis, Head of Product Development,
13-Jan-14, 9:45am:

Stock Market Reaction to Poor NFP Data



After an OK overnight session in Asia, European stock indices are trading higher but US indices are still down.

Here is a quick update on the markets this morning:



Update by Ishaq Siddiqi, Market Analyst,
13-Jan-14, 12:20pm:

A Bounce fro Gold But What Are the Big Traders Doing?



So Friday’s poor Non-Farm Payroll data has probably delayed the next round of tapering.

And that in turn saw a weaker dollar, which resulted in a near-$20 rally for gold.

Friday also gave us a look at what the big traders are doing though, i.e. the US Gov Commitments of Traders report was published for the week to 7 Jan, see gold COT report.

Like most investors, I focus on what the Non-Commercial traders, i.e. the Hedge Funds, are doing.

They got ever so slightly longer of gold and remain 1.4:1 long of the metal.

So not much change there and not much change in Open Interest either.

When there’s little action in both areas, that can act as a reversal signal.

If the big boys start to get back into the market could quickly get more interesting.

Having said that, the reversal signal needs to be confirmed.

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor,
13-Jan-14, 12:21pm:

Hedge Funds Still Heavily Short of the Yen



Friday’s rather poor Non-Farm Payroll data made the dollar weaker and that has had a large impact on the USDJPY market which saw some heavy selling.

There is the potential for that move to be short-lived though.

The latest US Gov ‘Commitments of Traders’ report also came out on Friday, see Japanese yen COT report.

The data showed that the big speculators like hedge funds, i.e. firms classed as Non-Commercial, are still more than 12:1 short of the yen.

That suggests a lot of pressure on USD/JPY to rise.

Having said that, the hedge funds don’t always call the markets correctly.

A rebound is certainly not guaranteed, but this is an interesting signal.

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor,
14-Jan-14, 9:28am:

Equity Markets Under Pressure



With US earnings looking soft and more tapering still on the cards the major stocks markets all under pressure.

The Dow Jones dropped 1.5% overnight, the FTSE 100 is also down, and the Nikkei 225 continues its fall.



Update by Craig Inglis, Head of Product Development,
14-Jan-14, 11:27am: In the latest trading video on the Clean Financial blog, Michael Hewson discusses a range of markets including US treasuries.

Is the Polar Vortex Hurting US Economic Data?

Update by Gordon Childs, Editor,
14-Jan-14, 1:09pm: It wasn’t a great Christmas trading period for UK-based retailers but Ocado and Ted Baker shares are trading just below their 52 week high.

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor,
14-Jan-14, 1:09pm: OK, so it wasn’t a great Christmas for many of the UK retailers but shares in Next and SuperGroup are just off their 52 week highs.

Update by Jacob Wood, Editor,