UK Government Taxes and US Housing
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Trading Features / Strategies from Simon Denham of Capital Spreads.
Having coughed, last night, through what felt like the entire percussion accompaniment to the 1812 overture (cannons and all) forgive me if this comment is less sunny and brilliant than usual!
US housing numbers were also on the lips of most commentators after the Shiler home price index came in at minus 14.4% and we think things are bad here after property values ‘slumped’ by all of 1.5% in the past twelve months. This brings out a major factor in the dilemma facing policy makers across the democratic world, people just do not understand that economies do not just go on forever getting better and better. Sometimes we hit a blip. Most of the time it is nothing to do with the government in power but this does not matter and they get smeared with the muck. The only government in the UK, in recent history, that survived a recession to be re-elected was John Major’s and that was because the opposition was so obviously laughable (remember our esteemed Euro Commissioner Neil Kinnock) and because the memory of the disastrous 70’s fiascos were still flickering. Today everyone must be cushioned from the harsh realities of downturns, nobody must suffer. This inevitably means that much needed funding boosts are whittled away in handouts, literally, to the losers in the game of capitalism.
For far too long, in the UK, governments of various hues have failed to push through the difficult policies. Understandably, in many cases, as the need for re-election every four to five years means that harsh decisions taken in the first three years of an administration are watered down for the last two. When Mrs Thatcher and Mr Major were in power at least we did get the hair shirt for a period but for the last ten years of New Labour we have watched a government continuously dodge anything remotely close to a nasty choice. The policy of bunging more money at any problem in the knowledge that the average voter will just hear the words ‘more money spent on … NHS/ police/ education’ and is too ill-educated to wonder where the other side of the equation, tax receipts, is coming from.
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Well by now they should have worked it out. Every year another layer of ‘green taxes’ (ha!!) is added to our burden, every year our council rates rise by far more than inflation, every year just about everything to do with Governments sucks up more and more of the national wealth and spews out very little in recompense.
If I stood in front of my board of directors with this scatter gun approach to every type of expenditure I would probably last about five minutes.
The world stands on the precipice of a really serious downturn but the UK is unfortunately left casting its eyes around for the parachute that it sold piecemeal over the last decade.
The above comments do not constitute investment advice and neither Capital Spreads nor Clean Financial accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of them.
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'UK Government Taxes and US Housing' edited by SD, updated 28-May-08
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