UK FX Trading
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The UK FX trading review with quick and simple answers to common FX spread betting questions:
UK FX Trading, 26 August 2011
The forex spread betting markets are playing the range game with gusto. Yesterday we commented on the big resistance above $1.4470 to $1.4500 due to the falling pennant formation still building. We naturally fell back to the low $1.43’s as Euro debt fears surfaced.
Today we are back up in the mid $1.44’s at $1.4440. Traders are watching for a break of the pennant formation, now above $1.4475. If we stagger sideways the sellers may get more confident as the day goes on.
The Sterling - Dollar spread betting market is now some way from ‘break out’ and we are back well within the trading range that has dominated 2011, approximately $1.5950-1.6550.
Past history suggests we will drift back to test the lows now that the highs have held us back. However, as this comment has mentioned a few times, the Pound does seem to be rather ‘too weak’ with all the information to hand that we have.
Good support is pretty much where we are at the moment at $1.6290/1.6300 and below here at $1.6260/65 and then $1.6220/25.
UK FX Trading, 25 August 2011
The currency markets confirmed the ranges yesterday with the USD/JPY failing once again to make headway below ¥76.50 and Sterling likewise showing the levels above $1.6480 to be particularly perilous.
The Euro remains in the pennant formation mentioned yesterday and remains near the top of it, currently trading at $1.4470. Our financial spread betting clients are selling here, presumably looking for it to fail to break out, hoping that the range will be confirmed and it will drop back.
The market that is proving most fruitful for spread betting account holders in recent weeks has been buying the Dollar versus the Yen whenever we approach ¥76.50 or lower as there appears to be a very solid support here.
With the overnight move back above ¥77.00 it has proved the right trade again. Traders should beware any close below ¥76.50 though, it has traded under here but never managed a close, as the support is generally built on the belief that the BoJ will sell Yen below here. If they do not come in then it might trigger a sell off.
UK FX Trading, 24 August 2011
Currency spread betting markets seem to be almost somnolent at the moment with the Dollar slowly drifting lower against nearly all comers in recent days but nothing too aggressive.
We are at the top end of the recent ranges for the Euro and Pound, and the bottom for the Yen, which in the past have generally led to a swift reversal back down.
If the Fed does go with QE III then the Dollar may well have a bit of a nervous time of it as the printing presses set off once again. However, as this is the 'fear' then what will happen if it becomes the 'actuality'.
The Pound is looking strong but, as mentioned frequently, Sterling does tend to struggle at any price above $1.6480. The momentum looks favourable for further rallies but then they have looked similarly bullish in the past, continuously from May'09 to November'09 and then May'11, only for the runners to fall at the last.
Resistance is pretty much continuous all the way up to $1.6660 and then $1.6750 and $1.69. Support is at $1.4475/85, $1.4430/40 and then $1.6350/60.
The Euro is continuing to narrow the trading ranges, with the markets forming a technical analysis pennant formation on the weekly charts. We are nearer the top of the pennant at the moment, at about $1.4500, with the bottom being currently at around $1.4050. Within this formation, range trading seems to be the current plan of our clients.
UK FX Trading, 23 August 2011
On the FX spread betting markets, trading ranges between the Euro and Dollar have been quite tight at the start of the week. The Euro has moved slightly higher this morning though after data showed that China's manufacturing shrank at a slower pace in August against July.
Another reason for the shallow trading ranges is that traders are awaiting Fed chairman Bernanke's speech on Friday in which he will discuss steps to boost the US economy. The pair is trading at $1.4410 this morning and has rebounded of its support level at $1.4373 which may signal further upside.
The Australian Dollar has moved higher against its US counterpart after the Chinese manufacturing data. Although the figures showed August slowed compared to July, they were still seen as better than expected.
The AUD/USD spread betting pair has already risen sharply this morning, trading at $1.0491, and is above its previous support level of $1.0385, which could see the pair move higher today.
UK FX Trading, 22 August 2011
On the currency side there is actually not much action going on as it is still very difficult to decide which currency should be weak and which should be strong. They all appear to have problems of the same making.
The Euro – Dollar spread betting market continues to oscillate around a mid-point of about $1.43 with various attempts to push above $1.4450 and $1.45 and vice versa below $1.41/1.40 and $1.39. Sad to say but range trading appears to be the play at the moment; unfortunately this has its risks as it is generally the ‘play’ until it isn’t anymore.
Sterling had a concerted attempt to hold above $1.65 at the end of last week but every time we looked like making the break count sellers counterattacked and took us lower.
This is very much in line with the last three years where anything above $1.65 has proved to be a good selling point.
It must be said though that every currency in the world seems to have been mentioned as a depository for flight out of the Dollar except for the Pound. This is odd when you realise that UK debt is now trading at an all time low yield. Investors seem happy to fly to Gilts but not to Sterling.
This said it is impossible to deny that there is massive resistance built up over several years all the way up from $1.4480 to $1.6750 then even more at $1.6900 and finally from $1.7000 to $1.7050. There is good support below at $1.4450/70 then $1.6420/25 but if we do get down here it is probably safe to say that the bull pressure is easing for the time being.
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UK FX Trading, 18 August 2011
Currency spread betting markets are finally getting twitchy, with the Pound overcoming yesterday's poor economic data and now rallying through the heavy $1.6460/80 resistance to trade at $1.6540. Resistance now turns to support. So traders will be watching for any move back down here.
There is more strong resistance to a close above $1.6550 and if we manage this then dealers may target the highs of the year at $1.6745.
The last few years have shown how difficult it is for the Pound to hold above the $1.64/65 level, with particular pressure building from $1.6740 and higher. If this is challenged then Sterling could be on a rocket but of course we have been here before.
Earlier I was listening to a couple of forex dealers actually talking about the possibility of the Sterling becoming a safe haven currency. With the issues the Euro is experiencing, the Swiss and Yen being so overvalued and with investors trying to divest out of the Dollar, the Pound might benefit as a venue of last resort.
UK FX Trading, 17 August 2011
The forex spread betting markets are fairly peaceful at the moment, watching everything else rush about, with the Pound regaining some of its ground lost and trading back at $1.6430.
UK FX Trading, 16 August 2011
The Sterling – Dollar spread betting pair has fallen on the poor German GDP data and has now given up much of yesterday's rally at $1.6330.
The support at $1.6300/10 is actually quite strong but below here we are looking at $1.6235/45 and $1.6085/95. On the up side, the big level is $1.6480/90 where we have run into a brick wall a number of times over the last few weeks.
Virtually anything over $1.64 is a struggle to hold onto but if we do then sentiment may well turn heavily in Sterling's favour.
As indices weaken, the money continues to pile into gold, the Yen and the Swiss Franc. At some point this will all go wrong so it would be unwise to ‘bet the house’ on it but while the impetus continues it is just as foolish to try to stand in the way.
UK FX Trading, 15 August 2011
The US stock markets are looking perky in early action but it must be noted that, compared to Europeans, the returns look less attractive. Of course in the long term the US is in a better position as they merely have to deal with their own problems and not worry about everyone else.
The Dollar could take up much of the slack if the US administration refused to do anything to address their budget problems but this would make them very unpopular with their trading partners.
In the FX spread betting markets we are running into the battle to see who can have the weakest currency.
Everyone wants currency weakness to bolster hopes for export growth and, existing, debt devaluation through containable inflation, although I personally believe it to be a false crutch.
In this scenario fundamentals get washed out into the gutter as we can see from the massive over valuations of the Yen and Swiss Franc which are believed to be the safe haven deposits.
Rather like the 'Yen carry trade' of the early 'naughties' this appears to be the safe trade to go for but when it goes wrong it will really go wrong.
Oddly enough while all the chaos of the last week was going on the FX markets were actually quite quiet.
For the Pound the prospects are very difficult to see. Debt has performed well as everyone focuses on the woes of Europe but we must fear that when this has been played out the markets may then turn their fire power onto the UK.
Fortunately, like the US, the UK can make fiscal decisions based solely on their own requirements and this may dissuade the naysayers in the medium term.
The currency has basically been stuck between $1.59 and $1.66 since the end of January which is creating buying and selling opportunities for those who have traded the ranges longer term. Current resistance is at $1.6300/10, $1.6330/40, and $1.6460/80 support at $1.6230/40, $1.6160/80 and $1.6100/15.
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'UK FX Trading' by DB, updated 26-Aug-11
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Forex Spread Betting April 2010, updated 09-Apr-10
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Forex Spread Trading March 2010, updated 26-Mar-10
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Forex Spread Betting March 2010, updated 12-Mar-10
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Forex Spread Trading February 2010, updated 26-Feb-10
FX market update: Cracks have appeared in the recovery and FX markets in particular have shown alarming moves that indicate they are preparing for...read article: Forex Spread Trading February 2010.
Forex Spread Betting February 2010, updated 12-Feb-10
FX market update: On the currency markets, the Pound and Euro both found support yesterday pushing well away from recent lows to climb quite strongly through...read article: Forex Spread Betting February 2010.
Forex Spread Trading January 2010, updated 29-Jan-10
FX market update: On the currency front, the Euro has been weakening again, finally dropping below $1.40 yesterday. The currency is...read article: Forex Spread Trading January 2010.
Forex Spread Betting January 2010, updated 15-Jan-10
FX market update: The US retail sales didn't help the Dollar much and it drifted back to the ¥91.00 mark against the Yen. With the rate at...read article: Forex Spread Betting January 2010.
Forex Spread Bets December 2009, updated 01-Jan-10
FX market update: Interesting movements in the Forex spreads markets are just about the only thing worth focussing on at the moment. Yesterday the Dollar waxed and waned, managing a...read article: Forex Spread Bets December 2009.
Forex Spread Trading December 2009, updated 18-Dec-09
FX market update: The momentum against Cable was compounded by some negative UK retail sales which flew in the face of recent reports from retailers like...read article: Forex Spread Trading December 2009.
Forex Spread Betting December 2009, updated 04-Dec-09
FX market update: The Euro managed to exactly match our commented range of $1.5140 to $1.5040/60 in yesterday's session. It traded at...read article: Forex Spread Betting December 2009.
Forex Spread Trading November 2009, updated 20-Nov-09
FX market update: Currency markets are mixed this morning but largely in favour of the Dollar. Cable is heading lower as once again it fails to test...read article: Forex Spread Trading November 2009.
Forex Spread Betting November 2009, updated 06-Nov-09
FX market update: Currency markets are turning a bit Dollar unfriendly once more with the Euro regaining the $1.4860 level. The Euro had been...read article: Forex Spread Betting November 2009.
Forex Spread Trading October 2009, updated 23-Oct-09
FX market update: Trading continues to be very contained in the EUR/USD cross with the $1.49 level seeming to hold an irresistible attraction. Last night it seemed that...read article: Forex Spread Trading October 2009.
Forex Spread Betting October 2009, updated 09-Oct-09
FX market update: Mervyn King muttered about a weak currency helping exporters but I have to say that this commentator is yet to see any evidence of...read article: Forex Spread Betting October 2009.
Forex Spread Trading September 2009, updated 25-Sep-09
FX market update: The weakness of the Pound versus other majors has merely been reflected by the Dollars own lack of strength. Versus the Euro the cross seems unable to...read article: Forex Spread Trading September 2009.
Forex Spread Betting September 2009, updated 11-Sep-09
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Forex Spread Betting August 2009, updated 28-Aug-09
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Forex Spread Betting July 2009, updated 17-Jul-09
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...read article: Forex Spread Betting July 2009.
Forex Spread Bets June 2009, updated 03-Jul-09
FX market update: Sterling is also managing to sit tight against some serious tests of support. Cable has drifted sideways through the short term upward trend line which is marginally worrying and this may give cause for a move back into the $1.58 to $1.60 region. However sometimes trend lines just lose their...read article: Forex Spread Bets June 2009.
Forex Spread Trading June 2009, updated 19-Jun-09
FX market update: Forex markets must have read my comment yesterday as the pound made an almost carbon copy move to Wednesday's price action. The total net effect over the last three days has been...read article: Forex Spread Trading June 2009.
Forex Spread Betting June 2009, updated 05-Jun-09
FX market update: Even though the GBP/USD spread betting market has fallen from a high of $1.6670 on Wednesday to the current $1.6050 there have been some big rallies amidst the 6 cent fall. Clients have been trying to buy into...read article: Forex Spread Betting June 2009.
Forex Spread Trading May 2009, updated 22-May-09
FX market update: The same happened to GBP/EUR which saw a very sharp fall yesterday morning, but recovered afterwards throughout the rest of the day. At the moment though, the euro is...read article: Forex Spread Trading May 2009.
Forex Spread Betting May 2009, updated 08-May-09
FX market: Sterling's good recent run came to an abrupt end after the BoE announced its next tranche of asset purchases. The market was taken a little by surprise as many were expecting the Bank not...read article: Forex Spread Betting May 2009.
Forex Spread Trading April 2009, updated 24-Apr-09
FX market: EUR/USD is back above $1.3000, currently at $1.3070 with the Euro making a bit of ground on Sterling as well as GBP/EUR heads back towards...read article: Forex Spread Trading April 2009.
Forex Spread Betting April 2009, updated 10-Apr-09
FX market: With EUR/USD, our spread betting accounts are very much two way with buyers matching sellers and in truth it is difficult to argue that ...read article: Forex Spread Betting April 2009.
Forex Spread Trading March 2009, updated 27-Mar-09
FX market update: FX markets are still wary of the recent indication that the US might not be opposed to the creation of a 'Super Currency' run by the IMF, the mere mention of which sent the dollar...read article: Forex Spread Trading March 2009.
Forex Spread Betting March 2009, updated 13-Mar-09
FX market: The failure last Friday to push resistance versus the dollar at $1.4340 was not helped by the overall view taken about the 'quantitative easing' policy of the...read article: Forex Spread Betting March 2009.
Forex Spread Trading February 2009, updated 27-Feb-09
FX market update: Against the Euro, the pound seems to have settled into a £1.1000 to £1.1500 range...read article: Forex Spread Trading February 2009.
Forex Spread Betting February 2009, updated 13-Feb-09
FX market: Virtually every major market, having tried valiantly to break out of the current trading ranges, is now pretty much where they closed on Wednesday evening. GBP/USD had a solid look at...read article: Forex Spread Betting February 2009.
Forex Spread Bets January 2009, updated 31-Jan-09
FX market update: Currency markets continue to be the focal point with the battle for the GBP/USD rate to get...read article: Forex Spread Bets January 2009.
Forex Spread Trading January 2009, updated 16-Jan-09
FX market: Strange moves overnight in the currency markets will not have pleased many as the Pound ?took off? in the first few hours of trading opening some...read article: Forex Spread Trading January 2009.
Forex Spread Betting January 2009, updated 02-Jan-09
FX market update: the 'dollar bulls' remain positive about the outlook for the dollar as they argue it could replace the Yen as the new carry trade currency. This also indicates that the FX markets are preparing for...read article: Forex Spread Betting January 2009.
Forex Spread Trading December 2008, updated 19-Dec-08
FX market: The pound has fallen a minimum of 25% against even the weakest of the other major currencies this year and in the same period our...read article: Forex Spread Trading December 2008.
Forex Spread Betting December 2008, updated 05-Dec-08
FX market update: On the Currency front the cut in rates had little effect, there was a brief fall in the Euro and the Pound followed by a short covering rally and now we...read article: Forex Spread Betting December 2008.
Forex Spread Trading November 2008, updated 21-Nov-08
FX market: The GBP / USD spread is now $1.5082 - $1.5085 and, to be honest, there is little in the way of resistance or support around the current price. The short term falling trend line is now at...read article: Forex Spread Trading November 2008.
Forex Spread Betting November 2008, updated 07-Nov-08
FX market update: The volatility in the GBP / USD market is becoming ever more extreme with the last eleven trading days averaging over 5¢ a day high/low range (3%). This variation represents a...read article: Forex Spread Betting November 2008.
Forex Spread Trading October 2008, updated 26-Oct-08
FX market: Traders looking for some kind of support have seen their hopes wiped away as the pound and euro plumb depths not seen for...read article: Forex Spread Trading October 2008.
Forex Spread Betting October 2008, updated 10-Oct-08
FX market update: Trading in the Forex markets has been just as violent as the equities as the pound has fallen dramatically out of favour versus the Yen and Dollar. It appeared, briefly, that confidence in...read article: Forex Spread Betting October 2008.
Forex Spread Trading September 2008, updated 26-Sep-08
FX market: The Forex markets must have been reading my comment yesterday as Cable failed at almost exactly the resistance of $1.8650 and then moved down to attack the support at $1.8450. Once this had...read article: Forex Spread Trading September 2008.
Forex Spread Betting September 2008, updated 12-Sep-08
FX market update: On the FX spread betting front the inability of the Pound, Euro or Yen to hold onto the gains versus the dollar do not bode well in coming sessions. The currency markets are settling in to the new ranges caused by...read article: Forex Spread Betting September 2008.
Forex Spread Trade August 2008, updated 29-Aug-08
FX market update: The Euro / Dollar rate is off its lows this morning around the $1.4693 mark and continues to test...read article: Forex Spread Trade August 2008.
Forex Spread Betting August 2008, updated 15-Aug-08
FX market update: We are now sitting just above the massive 2006 GBP / USD support level at around...read article: Forex Spread Betting August 2008.
Forex Spread Trading July 2008, updated 01-Aug-08
FX market update: In the Forex spread betting markets the dollar and yen are looking to make gains after the...read article: Forex Spread Trading July 2008.
Forex Spread Betting July 2008, updated 18-Jul-08
FX market update: In the Forex Spread Betting world Cable continues to hover around the $2.00 dollar mark but the Euro has, for the time being, given up on the...read article: Forex Spread Betting July 2008.
Forex Financial Spread Bet July 2008, updated 04-Jul-08
Forex market update: The weak dollar is causing much of the recent commodity spike and the laissez faire attitude of the US administration to the value of the Greenback is coming back to haunt them in the shape of...read article: Forex Financial Spread Bet July 2008.
Forex Financial Spread Trading June 2008, updated 20-Jun-08
Forex market update: Every time the pound looks to be in danger of a fall to below $1.94 buyers come in and take it back up to around $1.98 to $2.00. Cable has been in a falling wedge formation since...read article: Forex Financial Spread Trading June 2008.
Forex Financial Spread Betting June 2008, updated 06-Jun-08
Forex market update: The pound was dragged a little in the Euros wake yesterday but even so lost over a Euro cent in the post Trichet move. The GBP / USD spread is currently at $1.9581 - $1.9584 this morning and is still at the lower end of the recent trading ranges. Any clients who bought into...read article: Forex Financial Spread Betting June 2008.
Forex Spread Bet May 2008, updated 23-May-08
Forex market update: Sterling had one of its surging days yesterday moving higher against every other major currency. We have seen some very heavy buying in the Pound and Euro vs the lower interest rate currencies (JPY, CHF, USD) in the last few sessions as traders...read article: Forex Spread Bet May 2008.
Forex Trading May 2008, updated 09-May-08
Forex market update: Unfortunately the FX markets, which seemed to be selling the Pound and Euro in anticipation of a rate cut from both the ECB and MPC only reversed for the Euro and not for the Pound. Sterling is now weakening again against all the majors and yet another attack on the...read article: Forex Trading May 2008.
Forex Trading April 2008, updated 25-Apr-08
Forex market update: Looking at the Forex Spread Betting markets the Pound actually managed a good day for a change as the Euro and Yen suffered. Of course the real winner was the US Dollar. Cable is now at the bottom of it recent range with dealers probing for any weakness below...read article: Forex Trading April 2008.
Forex Spread Bets April 2008, updated 11-Apr-08
Forex market trading update: The dollar is getting a knock this morning weaker against the majority of other currencies. Sterling attempted to make some sort of recovery against the euro yesterday dipping below the £0.8000 mark. However, since...read article: Forex Spread Bets April 2008.
Forex March Spread Trading, updated 28-Mar-08
Forex markets: On the FX markets the Dollar continues to hold it own for the time being but the pound seems to have hit something of a brick wall overnight. All the majors are unchanged except for the pound which is down 80 pips against the greenback (under $2 again)...and is at a new all time low versus the Euro at £0.7894 which means that we are now over 15%...read article: Forex March Spread Trading.
Real-time Forex Prices and Charts, updated 15-Feb-08
Forex pricing information: On the currency trading front we are very quiet and with no news expected today it may well remain that way for the early trading session. GBP / USD looks to be quite happy at levels near to $1.9700 but we have made a habit of...read article: Real-time Forex Prices and Charts.
UK Forex Spread Trading, updated 01-Feb-08
UK Forex Spread Trading: FX markets are absolutely comatose at the moment and we are trading and re-trading over the same ranges. The pound is pretty much...read article: UK Forex Spread Trading.
Forex January Spread Betting, updated 18-Jan-08
FX markets remain peaceful with the Dollar and Pound continuing to recoup some of the recent losses. The Sterling/Yen cross is now hovering just below the 211.90 support/resistance at a spread of...read article: Forex January Spread Betting.
Forex Trading Online, updated 21-Dec-07
Find out where you can Trade FX Online for free plus your FX trading questions answered, tips on getting free FX charts, real time prices and...read article: Forex Trading Online.
Forex Futures Trading, updated 07-Dec-07
Where to trade Forex Futures plus updated Forex trading news and the most popular Forex questions answered....read article: Forex Futures Trading.
Forex Broker, updated 23-Nov-07
Where to find free Forex Brokers plus regular Forex financial trading news as well as the most popular Forex questions answered....read article: Forex Broker.
Forex Platform, updated 09-Nov-07
Where to find free Forex Platforms plus updated Forex trading news as well as the most popular Forex queries answered....read article: Forex Platform.
Forex Software, updated 26-Oct-07
Where to find free Forex Software information plus updated Forex trading news as well as the most popular Forex queries answered....read article: Forex Software.
Forex Prices, updated 04-Feb-08
Where to find free Forex Prices plus updated Forex news as well as your top Forex questions answered....read article: Forex Prices.
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