Is it Time to be More Positive?
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Trading Features / Strategies from Simon Denham of Capital Spreads.
For most of the Major indices we are now in the constricted trading area which defined the mid Jan to mid Feb volume trading range.
Reading the analysts comments we can see a sharp divide in opinion arising. Half appear to think that we have seen the lows and that the remainder of the year will be a slow grind higher whilst the other half is convinced that the last month has merely been a dead cat bounce in a bear market. Obviously one side or the other has to be wrong but the current tooing and froing is making for very nice trading opportunities for many range players.
From a personal viewpoint the trains into the city seem to be getting emptier and emptier (admittedly this is Easter week but even so) and I fear that there is a great deal more to come on the (un)employment front across the globe. We are already beginning to see social unrest in a wide array of nation states and if more countries are forced to take the Irish medicine this state of affairs is likely to get a lot worse before it gets better.
It is under this scenario that the huge fiscal stimuli from central banks can be understood to better effect, than just an attempt to prop up ailing financial institutions. It is often stated that civilisation is just two meals away from barbarism. Can you imagine what would happen in the UK if your plastic suddenly stopped working and the cash machines ran out? We rely on banks and the credit they guarantee to an extraordinary degree.
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Corporate profitability seems to be draining away little by little and dividends are being cut by prudent boards keen to hoard cash against an uncertain future. The same impulse is forcing cuts in staffing levels and restrictions on new placements.
The Treasury is printing money (sorry I meant quantitatively easing) as if the stuff did indeed grow on trees. Consumer goods inflation is at frightening levels (in many cases around 10%) and the UK has a virtual political vacuum, both intellectually and competently, at the top.
It is into this murky environment that investment managers and Joe Bloggs are trying to weigh up investment prospects.
The above comments do not constitute investment advice and neither Capital Spreads nor Clean Financial accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of them.
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
Article provided / approved by Capital Spreads which is a trading name of London Capital Group Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA), FSA Register number 182110.
'Is it Time to be More Positive?' edited by DB, updated 14-Apr-09
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