Spread Trading 26 Jun 09
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The regular Financial Markets Update from Simon Denham of Financial Spreads.
For today's update >> Financial Markets.
Spread Trading 26 June 09
Once again the FTSE holds its ground. US markets staged a bit of a comeback last night following comments from the Federal Reserve’s chairman that the Bank of America and Merrill Lynch deal had helped to stabilise the financial markets.
The remarks were hardly worthy of the sort of rally that we had last night, but the move goes to show sometimes just how fickle the US markets can be.
It would seem that buyers just needed any excuse to lift stocks and the rally means that we continue to trade within the tight range.
The FTSE is trying to push back above 4300, but has already rejected the level so far this morning. Resistance is seen around there and a few sellers have drifted in as client sentiment seems to have shifted from exceedingly bullish to a slightly more moderate stance.
If we breach 4300 the next test will be 4315 and then 4360 where the 20 day moving average is currently sitting, but it’s hard to see momentum for the bulls managing to sustain such a move.
Crude Oil’s return above $70 is pushing oil stocks higher this morning. The rise comes as a small surprise since Asian markets was muted after Japan released data showing that they are entrenched in their second deflationary environment in as many years.
To say the reports and data being released at the moment were mixed would be an understatement.
On one hand you’ve got data coming in ‘less-worse-than-expected’.
On the other hand you’ve got institutions such as the World Bank saying that the global recession will be worse in 2009 than they previously had predicted back in March – and that was at a time when the world looked like it was about to end.
I’ve been hearing ever increasing calls that the market will head south and even test the lows that we saw in March, which seems rather extreme to me, particularly since we have seen a few deals coming through.
The Anglo/Xstrata tie up is going to run and run before anything will come of it and Anglo’s share price is higher once again this morning.
At 1860p the share looks like it wants to have another go at the 2000p level which it so nearly managed at the end of May. The share is also being assisted higher by a note from Barclays who have raised their price target this morning from 1700p to 2300p although it’s a risky one as Xstrata could easily walk away. If so, there may not be a white knight around the corner to pick up from where they left off.
The chart for the mining sector was looking very bullish until the beginning of June but since then it has rather broken below its upward trend line. Whether that’s a buying opportunity or a signal that the recovery in mining share prices is over for now, the jury is still out.
Cable continues to bounces like a pinball machine between $1.6200 and $1.6600, refusing to break out in either direction.
This morning we are around $1.6480 at the time of writing and attempting to have another look at the highs around $1.6600. If we get up there, my money is on clients coming in and selling at that level as they have done repeatedly in the past.
Crude is once again back above $70 and like many of the markets which are at, or around, their highs and looking increasingly like they’re running out of steam.
Having said that, with volumes dwindling and the summer season in full flow we could continue this range bound trading across most assets classes.
The above comments do not constitute investment advice and neither Financial Spreads nor Clean Financial accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of them.
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'Spread Trading 26 Jun 09' edited by SD, updated 26-Jun-09
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