A regular spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads.
Spread Trading, 9 May 08
Markets continue to look buoyant in the UK as the effects of Oil and Mining bolster their respective sectors.
As mentioned several times over the past few days the FTSE is struggling to overcome the 6250 resistance. Although we have closed at or around the level several times traders have shied away from buying above the line. The pressure still appears to be very much on the upside but we are vulnerable at the current level to some bad piece of news. Mind you, markets do seem to have finally got shot of the reaction of reading every piece of information negatively and are swinging over to the other side of the equation and are beginning to don the rose tinted glasses.
Unfortunately the FX markets, which seemed to be selling the Pound and Euro in anticipation of a rate cut from both the ECB and MPC only reversed for the Euro and not for the Pound. Sterling is now weakening again against all the majors and yet another attack on the $1.95 level vs the dollar is going on as I write. Sentiment on currencies can be a fickle master with the ugly duckling turning into the beautiful swan almost in the blink of an eye. Until June last year nobody wanted Yen as the ‘carry trade’ worked its magic but since the 22nd of that month suddenly the Dollar and Pound became the smelly socks in the drawer. When you read of this or that guru talking about ‘long term’ trends just remember how few were forecasting the last nine months of correction.
Gold moved up to the resistance level mentioned in yesterdays’ comment at $882 and we are opening at that level this morning. With the dollar weakening badly against both the Yen and Euro in yesterday’s sessions the rally was not unexpected. But we are still struggling to make new highs on the current ‘wave’ and there are significant resistances at the falling trend line (currently at $895) and, of course, at $900 (just because it is a big number).
All the news on oil is bad and getting worse so the price just continues higher. Short term impacts are all bearish on supply and therefore bullish on price. At some point the pendulum will swing the other way but probably not today. New supply takes years not days. Whilst virtually all reserves are economically extractable at the current price not many producers will risk the vast costs involved on a short term price surge.
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Spread Trading, 8 May 08
For today, dealers will take their lead from the rate decisions due at 12.00 (BOE) and 12.45 (ECB). This should make for a peaceful morning. My indication yesterday that currencies might be moribund until today was a little wide of the mark as the pound and euro decided to react to today’s expected cuts as though they had already happened. Both currencies had a tough time of it and the Euro continues to do so this morning, falling through the $1.5350 support level overnight before bouncing off the $1.5280 support in early European action.
The pound is holding above $1.9500 having hit the level yesterday afternoon and several times in the small hours this morning. The currency is building a volume support at just above $1.95 and bulls will be hoping that the effects of any rate cut will have been factored into the market before it happens. If this occurs then there could very easily be a relief rally on the actual announcement. And, of course, there is always the chance that the BOE will do nothing.
Indices are a tad weaker after the US indulged in one of its late night sell offs with the Dow Jones dropping 200 points from its highs and the S&P giving up on the 1400 level for now. The FTSE is called to come in 30 points lower at around 6230 but the bulls still seem to hold the upper hand and shorts are vulnerable to spikes higher.
Gold continues to struggle and the major support between $845 and $850 may exert a fierce pull for dealers looking for weak long positions to attack. This morning the gold spread betting market is at $866.0 - $866.5 having failed to break back above the $882 resistance earlier this week.
Crude Oil...err...is opening at the highs today...but who knows?
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Spread Trading, 7 May 08
The markets today are likely to open slightly to the good as the short squeeze continues to bite.
Whilst the FTSE 100 has managed to break above the post Jan highs, the FTSE 250 is still just below the peaks of the rallies in February and March. The high in February was 10385 and in March, 10335. The current FTSE 250 spread is 10289-10309 having rallied some 250 points since the end of April. If the index can break above 10400, and stay there, then the squeeze in the main indices is likely to continue but if we fail in the junior index then the senior partner may well struggle to make much headway above the 6250 price level.
On the forex spread betting front the pound is battling to maintain its strength against a host of crosses. Cable is drifting below $1.9600 in early action. Whilst we have had innumerable failed attempts to go lower over the past few months, you do get the feeling that the battering ram will at some point break through. With the Bank of England decision to be made tomorrow it would be surprising if a move were to be successful today. That means we may find short term buyers coming in at these prices merely for today’s session.
Crude Oil will do whatever...it is up 50 cents already this morning...
For a new Feature on Oil and the possible $200 mark read: Spread Betting on Crude Oil Prices and UBS.
Gold and precious metals will attempt to hang on to the current levels. As I have commented many times over the past couple of months (sorry!) Gold is not the ‘new paradigm’. It is just another investment tool. If it gets too cheap it will rally if it gets too expensive it will fall. All the talk of $1,500 and $2,000 may well be correct in the long term but at the moment the trend is getting bearish. Each fall is hitting new lows and each rally failing to attain the previous rally’s highs. This is classic bear market material. There is a good chance of a move back up to the $902 resistance level but if the major $845 to $850 support is attacked then unfortunately for all those Gold bulls the probability then swings towards a return to the high $600’s which dominated the price action of early 2007.
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Spread Trading, 6 May 08
Markets today are likely to be on the up, initially, as crude oil and gold continue to bolster the Mining and Oil sector and, rather more cruelly, continue to squeeze those who have shorted the market. As mentioned last week the contraction of the FTSE over the previous weeks trading was a sure sign of a break out coming. That the break out was, on a probability basis, more likely to be to the upside than down. Clients continued to sell any price above 6100 and were unfortunately caught out by the sharp shift on Friday as the pre-bank holiday activity saw traders tighten the screw on anyone trying to set up shorts.
For those who wish to restrict short selling of stock the latest moves show what happens when the bears get caught out the wrong way round. The cost of borrowing the stock means that they will be hammered both ways round and the market can be as cruel to short sellers as to those caught long of a ‘Northern Rock’. If you are long at least you can sit back and await events. If you are short you may easily be forced out of positions by an adverse move. Markets are the most capitalist element of a capitalist society. You must be able to ‘invest’ either way round to maintain market liquidity and maintain correct market valuations. If all you could do in the market was to buy or do nothing then the ability for major players to manipulate the markets would be greatly enhanced (far above the minor one day problem of HBOS a month or so ago).
Looking at the FX spread betting market last week the slide in the Euro gathered momentum, partly due to demand for the Dollar. The Euro ended the week at EUR USD $1.5410 and EUR GBP £0.7800. Sterling weakened marginally against the Dollar to $1.9720.
Crude Oil touched a new high last Monday as worries over disruption to supplies continued. But the stronger Dollar hit commodity prices, sending Brent Crude Oil a couple of Dollars lower on the week, at $114.56. Gold fell to a 4-month low and is now struggling to hold support at $850.
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Spread Trading, 2 May 08
Markets have been as undecided about where to go as the London electorate over the last few weeks and there’s good reason too. On one side you have something that we’ve always been aware of and had hanging over our shoulders for the last few months i.e. liquidity drying up and investors running for shelter. The knock on effect of the “Ken” years (reckless lending and credit crunch) are filtering through to the housing market and now consumers are starting to feel the pinch. But despite a fresh alternative of change, what “Boris” (the BOE) has to offer isn’t being understood by the electorate (investors) and we have a serious stalemate.
Although Boris is trying to persuade our great electorate that the worst is over and we should resume the confidence to start lending to each other again, we seem to be consumed with the idea that despite the recent years under the Ken regime where inflation has been rising and house prices have been falling, he’s the best man to do the job and we’d rather let him sort things out than make a real bid for change.
This period of indecision has led to a confused and dazed electorate who cannot decide where the best place is to put their money. We’ve seen the shake out from the equity market and for the bulls there’s been a lovely bounce from the lows, but many believe it to be a “bear market bounce”. One thing is for certain and that’s that neither Ken, Boris nor the electorate know exactly what situation or state of play is at the moment, causing the markets to be in this period of flux. Whatever the outcome, it’s been clear that further action needs to be taken to stop the rot, but does Boris have the drive and determination to implement the changes he promises or we will Ken be voted back in and risk more months, if not years of turbulence. The main problem that Boris has at the moment is a split team underneath him, with one very well respected economist warning against a drop in house prices of up to a third and others still in the keep inflation under control camp. Either way at some point soon, whether Boris acts or Ken changes, there will be a sharp move in equity markets either up or down.
We continue to hover around the 6100 level in the FTSE with our call coming as high as 30 points above where the market closed last night, so 6127. A good, but most importantly sustained rally from US equity markets yesterday has put the bulls in the driving seat this morning. Asian banks did well overnight so we can expect banking stocks to attract buyers this morning. Clients in particular seem to favour many of the banks over other sectors at the moment with a few longer term bulls having bought some quarterly contracts. Banking stocks have also provided good opportunities for day traders recently, trading in and out of them over shorter time frames as they’ve been swinging in quiet tight ranges (along with the overall index).
The mining sector could also provide support this morning with it benefiting from an upgrade by Goldman Sachs. However, after the initial positive start this morning, markets are expected to remain quiet ahead of the very important non-farm payroll figures due out from the US at 13h30 London time. 80,000 jobs are expected to have been lost in April, the same as in March and bulls will be hoping for a better figure than this. In the past, a better than expected result has often led to equity prices falling as investors worried that the economy was strong enough to warrant increases in interest rates. However this time round it’s slightly different as rises in interest rates are highly unlikely any time soon. Anything nearer the 0 mark for today’s non-farm payroll figure could cause a frenzy of buying in a US equity market that currently seems to be defying gravity. However, there is still risk to the US labour market with job losses over the past month having come from a range of industries including business, retail and in particular finance.
Enthusiasm around the US economy was behind the drive of the currency markets yesterday with the dollar making substantial gains against sterling and in particular the euro. Today’s non-farm payroll figures may put a halt to that if they come out much worse than expected.
Gold prices have really experienced a serious correction from the dizzy highs of $1,000. It just goes to show how sometimes irrational exuberance and speculation can drive prices to unrealistic levels before falling back sharply, usually at the cost of the retail investor who’s just jumped on board at the wrong time. That said, many of the Capital Spread Account holders enjoyed a large chunk of gold’s move up to $1,000 when the trend seemed a one way ticket and are acting a little more cautiously now with prices hitting a 4 month low around the $850 mark.
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Spread Trading, 1 May 08
Quite incredible, in all my time working in The City I cannot recall when the FTSE has ever finished four trading sessions in a row at, effectively, the same level. The last four closing prices have been covered by around 5 points.
We had another go at breaking above 6100 and an attempt at trying for the downside but both were swiftly and quite easily defeated as the markets awaited the Feds’ decision last night. The eventual quarter point reduction was outside of the UK’s trading hours and so the big rally and subsequent fall of the US indices had, in the end, no effect on our markets.
Virtually every major index ended one of the biggest ‘information’ days of the month unchanged (by recent standards) although the Dax did manage to reverse the previous days’ weakness with a 0.9% rally.
The FTSE 100 spread is called some 15 points lower this morning at around 6075. However with much of Europe taking the day off (1st of May) and probably then making a long weekend of it before the UK then takes Monday off, the chances are that volumes are going to be on the light side.
Without one or other of the major centres (UK, US or Europe) in play the whole market tends to drift and after the last five days performance it is difficult to imagine it to be any different this time.
Of course sometimes traders like to take the opportunity of missing participants to really hammer a particular market in the hope of triggering a series of stops in the light volume. However, to be honest, it does not feel like it this time. If we do move it is most likely to be to the up side as speculative position taking seems to be mainly on the shorting side.
In the FX spread trading markets the pound regained it trading range with some ease yesterday afternoon and we are back in the $1.9700 to $2.000 region once again. With the current GBP / USD spread at $1.9906 - $1.9909 I can see Financial Spreads clients, who bought the move below $1.9700 in large numbers yesterday, taking profits very soon. That’s on the reasonable basis of “let somebody else take us above $2 if they can, I don’t want to risk it with my money!”.
Crude Oil followed through the fall from $120 with another drop yesterday taking us to just above the $113 mark. However the open this morning is taking much of this back and the Nymex June contract is opening $1.20 higher with the Nymex spread at $114.55 - $114.61. US inventories showed a solid increase which helped the drop but actual fundamentals appear to mean very little at the moment in the scramble to secure future energy supplies.
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Spread Trading, 30 Apr 08
As with yesterday’s comment, the markets look like opening almost unchanged after attempts to the upside and the downside were defeated. In fact, the FTSE 100 had to rally 50 points in the last half hour to achieve the ‘unchanged’ status. This now marks three days in a row where the index has closed within a 2 point range. A pretty unusual occurrence considering the fact that crude oil and metals have had a truly exciting time over the past few days. The Capital Spreads clients continue to sell heavily on any rally above 6100 and have been amply rewarded so far.
Indices Markets are opening almost unchanged this morning with the FTSE called about 10 lower at 6080 and the Dax 10 higher at 6895. However the UK index might struggle to hold these levels in early trade as the Oil and Metals markets fell sharply from the previous days closes. Mining stocks may be weaker on the off with BHP and Rio trading some 3% down in Australian markets. Oil is now all the way down at ‘just’ $113 for the June Brent Crude contract, some $4 from the highs, but I do not get the impression that this is a concerted sell off just yet. It is more probably along the lines of a pause for breath. If the weakness continues over a couple of days then we may find that the sentiment turns sharply but until this happens I am afraid that peak oil looks here to stay.
Gold is attempting to bounce off the $871 support that it hit back on the 1 April. However as I have mentioned many times in these comments in the absence of seriously bad news the arguments for holding the yellow metal start to deteriorate. With the dollar trying to recover some ground at the moment the metal is suffering.
On the currency, front the pound finally broke out of the $1.97 to $2.00 range and we have slipped to a GBP / USD spread of $1.9646 - $1.9649 in early action today. FinancialSpreads.com clients are buying into this weakness (and have been buying since the $1.9750 level) so they must be hoping for a regaining of the aforesaid range soon. If we can close down here for a few days then the probability starts to switch towards a concerted move lower. The pound has had a truly awful time for quite a period and, unfortunately, this shows no signs of halting just yet.
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Spread Trading, 29 Apr 08
Well the plus 6100 level on the FTSE 100 lasted less than one trading session but the positive aspect is that at least it has not been rejected completely. Throughout the day the lack of upside progress weighed down on traders minds and by the close nerves were beginning to fray.
Even so, in recent times, the rejection of highs has tended to be rather more violent than yesterdays price action and the closing level was virtually unchanged from Friday’s close. There are two differing views to take from this...either it is a confirmation of the resistance levels at around 6100 or the pressure on selling was not enough to cause the bulls to throw in the towel.
Corporate results yesterday and this morning have rather flown in the face of perceived wisdom with retailers such as Game Group’s profits doubling (obviously the last thing to be cut out of consumer spending is Johnny’s new computer game) and BP (maybe not so startlingly) reporting a 63% increase in net revenue. BP and Shell have both struggled to turn the huge oil price rises into profit as most of the revenue earned from the actual sale of the Black Stuff goes into the coffers of the State from which the crude oil is extracted.
As the price goes up so the revenue share of the Oil company increases but only marginally. Also on the rise though are the costs of getting the stuff out of the ground and the taxes demanded by the Treasury. Therefore so the apparent embarrassment of riches never seems to actually arrive and BP’s share price is lower than at the start of the year.
BP’s numbers were struck when oil was at an average, for Q1 2008, of well below $100. Q2 will see (probably) an average substantially higher than this.
Bank Stocks look to be suffering once again as the pressure on spending gets ever more intense and as HBOS finally calls in the rights issue boys. £4 billion is (like the RBS number) at the absolute top end of expectations so the dilution of equity looks a tad heavy and is likely to weigh on valuations for some time. Unfortunately Retailers and Financial Services are in a sort of dance of death at the moment as consumers find ever less money in their ‘disposable income’ ledger. The really nasty part is that much of the recent commodities price rises have been absorbed in margin costs which will either lead to lower returns or a sudden blip in the inflation numbers.
There is much comment about the employment numbers this morning, mainly concerning their strength in the face of continued bad news. What unnerves me is the lack of progress on the tax take side. If we have more people in work than ever before and fewer people claiming benefit (as their sole source of income) why is the government not swimming in riches. In a scenario such as this we should be talking about tax cuts or cutting the national debt levels, instead we have probes being launched by the EC into the apparent breach of the European Borrowing rules. The obvious answer is that the jobs being created are not of the quality that actually increases overall Treasury income. A low income worker is in a job but is still claiming substantial sums in state benefit. This correlation is augmented by the news that the richest 10% of the population (I do not mean the tiny numbers in “The Rich List”) has increased the wealth gap considerably over the bottom 40% and that those we consider to be on low incomes (but not in poverty) has actually increased.
Unfortunately, from the governments point of view, those in the bottom tier of the earnings pyramid are still a ‘cost centre’ rather than a ‘revenue centre’ and at the same time the numbers in State employment (of one kind or another) has increased substantially. Outsourcing of local council work might take employees off the governments wage bill but the consumers still pay for them via their council bills. The hope is that the impetus of the economy is of such magnitude that the effects of any world slowdown will not be sufficient to impede its momentum. I have to say that it is a hope that I share but fear that it will be misplaced.
The markets today look to be going over the same ground as yesterday with the pound dropping back to yesterday mornings level around £1.9800 and Gold and Oil reversing some of the recent gains.
There is a slight dislocation between the FTSE 100 and the German and US indices with the former up 30 points and the latter two down 30 points. However, to be honest there seems to be little in the way of momentum and with every attempt at a break out either up or down seemingly being defeated the prospect is for a quieter start to the summer than in previous years.
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Spread Trading, 28 Apr 08
Markets look to be finally attempting the 6100 level this morning as we expect an opening level 35 points up at around the 6125 mark. After two weeks of refusing to even contemplate a pitch above 6090 it might be that a unilateral move higher, effectively in ‘out of hours’ trading, is what is needed to make the move. The important point will be whether we are able to maintain our 6100 plus level in the FTSE 100 or whether we will just get sold back through it. There is almost certain to be an attempt to push lower in early action.
Sterling is back in the mid range of the $1.9700 to $2.0000 region (I get tired of writing this) with current GBP USD spread at $1.9797 - $1.9800. We had several attempts on Thursday and Friday to break below the $1.97 mark but all were defeated. The Capital Spreads clients continue to trade the range and have been good buyers on weakness and sellers on strength which has proved very profitable over the past three or four weeks. For longer term traders there is some need for a break out but in all honesty it is difficult to see which way this is likely to be. The trend appears to be for a weaker pound but we really need a confirmation of a move lower for the bigger players to join in.
With the Grangemouth problem reaching its zenith the price of Brent Crude Oil has spiked to $117.50 but this may be an example of ‘buy the rumour’-‘sell the fact’. Many factors are driving the price of oil higher but many of them are temporary, there is a good chance that there will be a spike move higher to take out weak shorts in the near future but that this may well indicate the highs.
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Spread Trading, 25 Apr 08
The trading range of the FTSE almost exactly matched the previous days efforts with the ultimate result also almost identical. The markets continue to wrestle with the 5970 to 6100 range and my comment about many traders waiting for one or the other to be defeated still remains in place. Yesterday’s action was an absolute boon to our clients who as mentioned in yesterdays comment have been heavy sellers at anything above 6050. The fall down to 5950 brought out heavy profit taking and then a strong reversal which many punters bought into. The net result was a lovely profit on the way down and an even better one on the way up.
We are still stuck just under the 6100 level this morning but the bulls seem to have the best of it at the moment. Every time we get up to this level it seems as though the break out is imminent only for traders to run out of steam.
Looking at the Forex Spread Betting markets the Pound actually managed a good day for a change as the Euro and Yen suffered. Of course the real winner was the US Dollar. Cable is now at the bottom of it recent range with dealers probing for any weakness below $1.9700. We have been here many times in recent weeks and each event has seen a bounce back up to $1.9950. The Financial Spreads accounts seem to be expecting a similar response this time and we are seeing buyers creeping into long Sterling positions.
The problem with much of the current currency levels is that there have been huge shifts in recent years and if there is a sea change in favour of the green back then there is a lot of space for it to recover.
Gold and Crude Oil have responded to the dollar strength and have retreated over the past few days (only a little in the case of Oil but significantly in Gold). There are considerable long positions still in many commodity markets and if the perception takes hold that the best has been seen then we could well see some really alarming price action in the coming months.
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Spread Trading, 24 Apr 08
The markets this morning are looking to be coming in slightly weaker after the short squeeze yesterday. The closing level was still not significantly above the resistance levels around 6065 and 6080 mentioned yesterday. A break below 5980 or above 6100 is required to indicate the next direction.
Today sees the opening FTSE spread around 30 points lower at 6050 and it looks like the Capital Spread Account holders are sellers yet again. As they have continued to be every time we have been close to the 6050 level over the past six or seven trading sessions.
Sterling has also been rather cuddly towards our clients. The Cable range between $1.9700 and $2.0000 was reconfirmed yet again with yesterdays rejection of the highs around $1.9975. The GBP / USD spread is now down at $1.9750 - $1.9753 and shorts are quietly taking their profits and looking for an indication that the reverse might happen today.
Gold and Oil appear to be on opposite tracks at the moment as one surges ever higher and the other continues to struggle to maintain value. In a resource hungry situation, as we have at the moment, the price of a product that requires continuous renewal (Oil, Softs etc) is likely to be far more attractive than one that for all intents and purposes is eternal (Gold, Silver etc).
Only in times of financial turmoil will the attraction of Gold assert itself and with the end game in sight for the banks (with rights issues etc) there is a possibility that the Yellow Metal might just go all the way back from whence it came. Mind you that’s only a possibility as another crisis may well be around the corner.
Brent Crude Oil is now at $116.50 (another all time high) but we will need to get through the $116.70 level which has been something of a barrier for the last three days. There was an attempt at a small pull back yesterday, as there have been on odd occasions over the past three weeks, but once more the buyers beat off the weakness with some ease after the inventories number in the States disappointed.
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Spread Trading, 23 Apr 08
Markets today are a bit more optimistic than was forecast late last night. The closing quote for the FTSE 100 at 9pm was down at around 6000 after the US fell in late trading. But this morning the Far East has held steady and valuations have perked up.
The FTSE 100 spread is now at 6060 - 6061 and we continue to hammer, for the sixth day in a row, at the resistance levels between 6065 and 6075. The price action is tightening up which indicates (normally) that a price spike out is on the cards. Whether this move is to the upside or down only time will tell but a close below 5985 or above 6075 may well be the trigger.
Looking at the FX markets the pound continues to oscillate between £1.9700 and £2.0000. This morning Sterling is showing weakness from the yesterdays attempt to get back above the 2 dollar mark. With little information to go on at the moment short-term punters are playing the aforementioned range with the position takers sitting on their hands awaiting, as with the FTSE, a break out.
Crude Oil continues to power higher and with the news that the emerging economies have overtaken the US as the biggest users of the black stuff it is not hard to speculate that markets will take us ever higher.
'Spread Trading' by Simon Denham, updated 09-May-08
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