Market Reaction can be a Fickle Mistress
updated 22-Jul-08 |
With virtually every piece of nasty medicine now consigned to the back of the dispensary the country can look forward to two or three years of drift as the incumbent administration looks to mitigate its current disastrous low in the polls. Out of the window has gone the...read more >>
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Trading the Banking Sector
updated 17-Jul-08 |
An exceptionally strange day with European markets pluming the depths in the morning only for the US to come in and completely alter the sentiment. Markets are expected to open substantially to the good this morning with financials especially favoured (for once). RBS hit 144p during the morning session with the board presumably thankful to have the rights issue out of the way already. No such luck for the underwriter of...read more >>
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Banking Sector Problems Continue
updated 15-Jul-08 |
The belief that the good times would go on forever has now cost us two banks with a third clinging on for grim life. Santanders audacious bid for Alliance and Leicester looks to be going through on the nod to the relief of all concerned (shareholders, Treasury, BOE and FSA) and little will be made of the fact that they are paying a valuation that was...read more >>
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Taylor Wimpey, M&S and US Data
updated 03-Jul-08 |
And the pain continues. M&S and Taylor Wimpey produced a real shocker yesterday morning but initially, somehow, the FTSE actually managed to shrug off the disastrous news and at one point was trading 80 points up on Tuesdays close. It was not until the US joined the fray that a bit of sense seemed to drift into proceedings and down we came once more to close 53 lower. This morning the opening level is forecast to be another 30 points lower at around 5390 having been as low as 5365 in late Futures ...read more >>
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Employment and Major Construction
updated 02-Jul-08 |
A grim day on the exchanges yesterday as virtually everyone decided at the same moment that discretion was the better part of valour. At one point in after hours dealing the FTSE was being called 200 point...read more >>
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Spread Betting on Banking Sector
updated 01-Jul-08 |
Banks took yet another battering yesterday even though the FTSE rallied some 96 points and the steady selling seems to now be almost masochistic (yields on Barclays are almost 12%) and the feeling spreads that...read more >>
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Investing in Construction Companies
updated 26-Jun-08 |
Looking at the disaster which has been the UK centric portion of the FTSE 350 it is tempting to wonder if the whole thing has been rather overdone. Yes we know that people are feeling the pinch, that retail sales are down, that banks were sucked into the huge mortgage fraud over in the States, that petrol is now almost as expensive as...read more >>
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Weakened Banks and House Price Forecasts
updated 25-Jun-08 |
The 'vulture funds' appear to be sniffing around the smaller banks and weakened Boards are struggling to justify not talking to them. Bradford and Bingley's curious attitude to their shareholders over the past month coupled with their outright rejection of a deal that seems, on the face of it, to be rather better than...read more >>
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Reality Retail Sales Figures
updated 20-Jun-08 |
Retailers, like farmers, are always pessimistic and will describe any situation as a 'tough trading environment' but the idea that spending was up a rather ludicrous 8% had many coughing into their tea. I did wonder if...read more >>
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Credit Cards, Personal Debt and Missing Targets
updated 19-Jun-08 |
Not a very hopeful day yesterday with the FTSE taking its cue from an RBS analyst's doom laden prognosis followed by Sainsbury missing targets, Tate and Lyle worrying about commodity prices and Woolworth ousting their CEO. Last night Mervyn King gave the startling news tha...read more >>
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The Great Short Selling Debate
updated 17-Jun-08 |
For all of the fireworks over the last two or three months who have been the ones proved to be a) correct and b) truthful?
Firstly, most of the Banks denied point blank that they would need capital injections and then (it would appear) deliberately mislead on the size of the cash call required before...read more >>
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Who is Right: BoE, ECB, The Fed?
updated 13-Jun-08 |
With the three major Western currency blocs acting in different ways to the current financial, growth and inflationary problems (one slashing rates, one holding steady and the third looking to tighten) it will be educational in a few years time to...read more >>
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Investing in Brewing, Gambling and The Other
updated 12-Jun-08 |
Many years ago I was reliably informed that, aside from utilities, the best performing sectors in a recession were brewing, gambling and ***. The first seems to be being brought home in the only takeover interest of note for some time with the $46bn bid for Anheuser-Busch. The second is...read more >>
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Building Companies and Land Valuations
updated 11-Jun-08 |
The drip, drip, drip of bad news was replaced by a veritable deluge yesterday. The building and property sectors plumbed to new lows on figures showing that house viewings and sales for the last three months were actually significantly lower than the worst period of the last house price slump back in the early nineties. The really worrying fact about this is that...read more >>
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ECB, Inflation and US Markets
updated 06-Jun-08 |
Mr Berlusconi in particular, never a fan of the EC experiment, must be seriously tempted to publicly voice disapproval with ECB policy and to once again shake the weapon of disengagement from...read more >>
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Bank of England and Interest Rates v Inflation
updated 05-Jun-08 |
Reams will be written about what the Bank of England should do, would do, will do and wants to do. A bit will be written about what various vested interests want them do (generally cut rates) but not much will be written about the whole 'independent bank' experiment and whether it is in fact working...read more >>
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Employment Data, Interest Rates and Growth
updated 04-Jun-08 |
Employment prospects are finally moving in the direction that the events of the last six to nine months would have led us to expect. Hiring in May was the lowest for five years as companies...read more >>
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UK Recession To Be or Not To Be
updated 30-May-08 |
US preliminary GDP for Q1 duly came in at plus 0.9% which rather makes a mockery of all that talk of recession over the past six months or so. Whilst the rise in energy and fall in house prices since the end of March will...read more >>
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Crude Oil Prices and Tax
updated 29-May-08 |
Crude Oil is on everyones lips these days and politicians across the globe are falling over themselves blaming just about everyone under the sun for the dramatic rises. Traders, producers, terrorists, refiners, OPEC, the Oil companies...pick a name, any name...of course the real reasons...read more >>
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UK Government Taxes and US Housing
updated 28-May-08 |
US housing numbers were also on the lips of most commentators after the Shiler home price index came in at minus 14.4% and we think things are bad here after property values 'slumped' by all of 1.5% in the past twelve months. This brings out a major factor in...read more >>
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Banking Stocks and Market Review
updated 20-May-08 |
Banking stocks are becoming very worrying indeed. Since B&B announced their £300m call and Barclays stated a kind of 'we will wait and see' banking stocks have been in ...read more >>
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Commodity Prices and Interest Rates
updated 17-May-08 |
Anyone hoping for a cut in interest rates next month can think again as this surprise news would have done nothing for the doves who expect inflation to be capped by a slowing British economy. Whether the economy slows by more than...read more >>
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Time to Spread Bet on Tesco?
updated 13-May-08 |
Tesco seems to have suddenly decided that enough is enough and is vigorously defending itself across the globe against perceived malicious journalistic falsehoods. For many years the British propensity to denigrate any...read more >>
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The FTSE 100 and the Credit Crunch
updated 12-May-08 |
Oil is the word on everyones lips at the moment with economists trying to add in the braking effects of the move from $90 to $126. It is very difficult to be anything other than majorly pessimistic as the US was rumoured to be in recession and Europe and the UK slowing sharply even before the recent price spike. What, you might quite reasonably ask, will be the overall economic impact of ...read more >>
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Spread Betting on the Retail Sector
updated 09-May-08 |
There is finally a sense of spring in the air from shell shocked investors as the feeling continues to permeate through that the worst is possibly over. Strange as it might sound, from the view point of the stock exchange, this is not as weird...read more >>
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Interest Rates and Commodities Spread Betting
updated 08-May-08 |
Pushing up interest rates is hardly going to make much impact on the price of Crude Oil, Wheat or Rice. These, and others, are globally competed for commodities and are going to...read more >>
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Spread Betting on Crude Oil Prices and UBS
updated 07-May-08 |
The unexpected loss reported by Carlsberg this morning might have rather more long term visionary practicality than the Goldmans Oil statement. The company was expected to report a profit of some 37m DKr but actually came in with a 129m loss. The reason given was...read more >>
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High Crude Oil and Energy Prices
updated 06-May-08 |
With Oil showing no signs of wishing to fall back to a more reasonable level investors must now be wondering what the effect of increased energy bills will be on bottom line numbers. It is easy to criticise companies for not taking adequate hedging risk against...read more >>
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Spread Betting on Unchanged Markets
updated 02-May-08 |
At the moment our Capital Spreads clients who are following this simple strategy are doing very well indeed just at the moment. Sellers of everything above 6100 and buyers below 6050 have seen six separate opportunities in the last five...read more >>
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US Interest Rates and Lending
updated 30-Apr-08 |
I am not sure that the current woes in the US economy can be easily solved with further interest rate cuts as you have the feeling that if you cannot afford a loan at 2.25% what makes you think that 2% will be any better and there is always the...read more >>
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Improving Markets and UK Housing
updated 28-Apr-08 |
The financial sector seems to be taking the (expected) HBOS rights issue in its stride. With only Barclays to come, and even that is not certain, this is likely to be amongst the last of the big calls. Punters are now trying to look...read more >>
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Spread Betting Indices and Equities
updated 25-Apr-08 |
Finally the Capital Spreads Accounts are tiring of Mining and Oil stock and we have seen some lightening of positions and even a few brave shorts. The strength of the main indices across the globe would seem to fly in the face of...read more >>
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Credit Suisse Losses and RBS Shares
updated 24-Apr-08 |
Credit Suisse has managed to hammer the market down this morning after coming with a loss of $2.1bn against estimates of around $600m. Analysts will be sharpening their knives as there...read more >>
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Retailers, UK Centric Stock and the FTSE 100
updated 23-Apr-08 |
The performance of UK centric stock has been pretty abysmal over the past year or so with many frontline stock virtually halving (RBS, Barclays, Marks etc) whilst the FTSE 100 has actually...read more >>
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Mortgage Swaps and High Commodities Prices
updated 22-Apr-08 |
It is difficult to get excited about buying something when you know that there may be more along the way. The Bank of England £50bn cash for mortgages swap is all very well and at least has the prospect of longer term availability than the ECB or Fed...read more >>
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Bank Stocks and House Prices
updated 21-Apr-08 |
The next banking brick to drop remains the prospects in the property markets. Whilst I do not actually envisage a house-price fallout we may get into the equivalent situation but 'in reverse'...read more >>
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The Bank of England and the Failure of Mark to Market
updated 17-Apr-08 |
The actions of the BOE may loosen the credit markets temporarily but they are unlikely to make much difference to the levels of suspicion prevalent between the major lenders. Official announcements that there are possibly almost a trillion dollars of poor credit to...read more >>
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Spread Betting Margins
updated 16-Apr-08 |
We have been in touch with a number of spread betting companies to see what affect the current credit crunch is having. So far it looks like business as usual and with the operators keen to keep margin requirements...read more >>
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Is the FTSE 250 outperforming the FTSE 100?
updated 15-Apr-08 |
When we focus on UK centric FTSE 100 stock the picture is much less positive. The retail and banking sectors are performing pretty poorly with many valuations languishing at a 50% discount compared to just eight months ago. The FTSE 250 is off almost...read more >>
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High Commodity Prices, Margins and Weak Government
updated 10-Apr-08 |
With Crude Oil and other essential commodities continuing to rise as the pound continues to depreciate it is tempting to suggest that the markets seem to be rather sanguine as to the profits expected from many...read more >>
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Fear and the Falling Housing Market
updated 07-Apr-08 |
It is difficult to not to think of the current situation as a sort of phoney war on the economic front line. After the initial bursts of activity over the past seven or eight months as the banks have been pummeled you could be forgiven for thinking...read more >>
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The Federal Reserve and the Bear Market
updated 04-Apr-08 |
The Federal Reserve still seems to be, to some extent, in the pocket of Wall Street as virtually every move is designed to bolster equity prices and to keep the dream...read more >>
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The Federal Reserves Triple Pronged Barrage
updated 03-Apr-08 |
As the US Federal Reserve does its impersonation of some sheriff in a Glen Ford western riding to the rescue of all that capitalism stands for there are some slightly worrying things that still remain to be...read more >>
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Time to Sell Commodities?
updated 01-Apr-08 |
Big falls in Oil, Silver and Gold over the past few days come after all three failed to regain their highs after the initial sell off of a few weeks ago. For the first time in quite a while the downside looks more probable ...read more >>
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The Capitalist Share Holder
updated 31-Mar-08 |
The capitalist share holder requirements demand better growth patterns than this and whilst it may weaken companies in times of crisis it also creates far more...read more >>
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Cash and the Hunt for Safety
updated 29-Mar-08 |
The hunt for safety is becoming ever more problematic. The recent fallout in commodity values has reminded those who had forgotten that, as the adverts say, prices may also fall and past performance gives no certainty of future returns. Government treasuries from the US to Germany and the UK have had a pretty grim week as...read more >>
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European Markets and Lower Interest Rates
updated 27-Mar-08 |
A mishmash of numbers out yesterday and today will leave investors rather fogged as to what is actually happening on the high street in the UK and on the global economy as a whole. Over in Europe the picture is even more confused as business leaders in Germany and France express...read more >>
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Interest Rates and the Property Market
updated 26-Mar-08 |
It was also nice to see that Citigroup and Barclays Capital are also bringing into question the Bank of England's handling of its role over the past months. The squeeze on liquidity is getting worse, not better, and yesterdays 3 month Libor fixing was at 6% showing that even the small rate cut that we have seen from the central bank has...read more >>
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Stock Market Rally vs Bank of England Commitment
updated 25-Mar-08 |
I see that the papers are still full of the *search for the abominable rumourman* but it is difficult to see what, if anything, this will achieve. What if the *culprit* is not an ...read more >>
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Forex, Job Losses and Taxes
updated 21-Mar-08 |
Markets continue to wing all over the place. As I mentioned on Wednesday, if you discounted the moves induced on the days of Fed action the story has been pretty dire since the start of the year and yesterday was a classic case in point. Tuesdays rate cut caused a...read more >>
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The Fed Rally and Active Investors
updated 20-Mar-08 |
Markets continue to whistle around as we digest the latest Fed led rally in the States. Since mid January we have had five Fed initiative rallies (two liquidity injections and three rate cuts) which have all caused major moves to the upside on their respective announcements. In between times the direction has been, as you would expect, singularly grim. If we remove the...read more >>
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Banking Sector Value Shares
updated 18-Mar-08 |
Rumours that Lehman might be the next in line for implosion after DB Singapore apparently refused their name in the money markets were quickly quashed. The stock was at one point some 50pc down on the day at around $20.50 but later bounced as investment banks...read more >>
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Job Cuts, School Finance and Career Politicians
updated 13-Mar-08 |
Cowardice in high places is not a new phenomena but this administrations spinelessness is now beginning to show as bright yellow streak across the finance of UK plc. Yet another Budget long on raising revenue but short on...read more >>
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Finance Lesson from Japan
updated 12-Mar-08 |
So, the Fed and the ECB are now both taking dodgy mortgage debt as collateral against loans. One wonders how closely these deposits will be checked for value or will the western banks end up in the same boat as the Japanese financial institutions from the early nineties sitting with huge unrealised losses on 20-30 year loans being...read more >>
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Recession or Value Shares
updated 11-Mar-08 |
As markets get tougher so the wolves begin to strike. Bear Stearns and Lehman were forced into swift denunciations after rumours circulated about possible Chapter 11 situations. Whilst the security of the companies is not reasonably in doubt the mere mention of weakness will have its negative effect. Twitchy depositors, fearful of losing substantial sums will...read more >>
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AAA Rated Government Insurance
updated 10-Mar-08 |
Most people reading this article will be of the 40% paying slice of the population, the bit that the government is relying on, to an increasing extent, to balance its books. The taxes on virtually everything we do are now getting to...read more >>
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Slow Down, Interest Rates and Goodbye London
updated 09-Mar-08 |
We saw the knee jerk US political reaction to the Enron collapse seriously damage their financial industry by its implementation of the Sarbannes Oxley requirements and it is beginning to look as though the UK authorities are going to make the same mistake. What is the betting on...read more >>
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Commodities Price Correction
updated 06-Mar-08 |
Other commodities are, likewise, not exactly *running out* (although copper is reputed to be looking a tad thin on the ground) and *softs* are an accident waiting to happen. As one product becomes ever more expensive so our food...read more >>
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Second Class Financial Ticket
updated 04-Mar-08 |
With a snarling up of basic transport lines business will look elsewhere to invest. We might pride ourselves on the power of the financial sector in the city of London but finance is probably the most portable business on the planet. The logistics of moving money around could not be simpler. HSBC yesterday showed that some 50% of revenue...read more >>
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Credit Crunch Finance
updated 04-Mar-08 |
Is this the second leg of the credit crunch? The rush into *secure* havens has accelerated over the past few weeks as US Treasury Bond yields slip below 2% and Gold and other Precious metals reach for the sky. Borrowing spreads for even high quality corporate names are at, what appear to be, ridiculous levels as banks scrabble to cover lending exposures in the money markets. Whilst the sharp point of this...read more >>
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Private Equity Trading
updated 29-Feb-08 |
If the credit crunch continues for much longer, many of the deals that companies had been expecting to offload via stock market floats could start to experience certain problems. Given that a number of them will now be coming up for rollover of their initial financing deals, in a dog eat dog environment it does...read more >>
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Private Equity Markets
updated 28-Feb-08 |
Guy Hands has put up his err...hands and admitted that turning round the entrenched philosophy at EMI was proving rather harder than he expected. When a major private equity house gets involved too heavily in a project of dubious return, especially one as high profile as EMI, investors may begin to...read more >>
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Strong Commodities and Weak Sectors
updated 28-Feb-08 |
With the economies of the world sucking in ever greater quantities of critical commodities we are now experiencing the classic effects of the first lesson for economics students. Supply and Demand. In places this producing odd results. Whereas a slight...read more >>
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Long-term Financial Markets Slowdown
updated 26-Feb-08 |
Official numbers last week showed that, for all the woe, doom, disaster etc discussed in the last few months, there is still an economy out there doing well enough to hold its head above water. The biggest eye-opener was the January tax receipt numbers. In hindsight we should not...read more >>
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Taxes, Rumour and Finance Directors
updated 25-Feb-08 |
Both BAE and Tomkins showed weaker numbers but better than might have been feared. Much of market movement can be attributed not to what the actual figure is but what as been *indicated* to the markets...read more >>
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High Commodities Prices
updated 21-Feb-08 |
Markets were in a bearish mood last night as the price of commodities surges virtually across the board from metals to energy and softs. Looking at the data this morning the only sector that seems not to have moved strongly higher is...read more >>
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Credit Crunch Markets
updated 19-Feb-08 |
Just because the BOE says base rates are at 'x' does not mean that banks can get hold of money at this level. As it happens, yesterday, I had a meeting with one of my oldest contacts who works as a broker with one of the big Money Houses in the...read more >>
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Bank Sector Trading
updated 18-Feb-08 |
For companies that are likely to be around for a very long time, these look (when compared to even their own issued paper let alone UK Gilts) to be very tempting indeed. Punters have been...read more >>
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Credit Crunch Trading
updated 16-Feb-08 |
The US is suffering because house prices became a get rich quick route in a country that has one major product in abundance 'Land'. In the UK (although there are a few 100% plus mortgages) most loans are well covered and the value of the asset, the house, will almost certainly cover most...read more >>
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Banking Sector Shares
updated 15-Feb-08 |
The only real option open to Capt?n Darling became his final decision. Offloading the whole kit and caboodle into the private sector with a big government guarantee was never going to fly. The political fall out from...read more >>
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World Market Trading
updated 14-Feb-08 |
An entire economy is like a massive super-tanker whose momentum takes an enormous amount of time and space to turn in another direction. Alterations of this magnitude should have shown up in shipping volumes, credit facility increases or just...read more >>
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The Bear Market
updated 12-Feb-08 |
The problem has not so much been any particular new piece of information on the UK economy but from the almost universally gloomy statements from the meeting of the ?great and the good? at the G7 Finance ministers get...read more >>
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Interest Rates Trading
updated 13-Feb-08 |
Adding the Northern Rock loans to the national debt makes for great headlines but it also shows how spineless the ONS actually is. At least the Northern Rock debt is backed up by a rather good mortgage book on the other side of the balance sheet. There is a whole host of much more...read more >>
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Rogue Trader
updated 31-Jan-08 |
Jerome Kerviel, Rogue Trader. We can assume that an audit team, as is normal practice, requested a list of open deals from a counterparty bank and discovered that the counterparty had a series of...read more >>
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Spread Betting Strategies
updated 04-Jun-08 |
A range of features from industry professionals discussing various market opportunities, financial outlooks, sector trading, spread betting growth areas and...read more >>
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