I do love the articles propounding the underlying value of Gold as against currency (printed money). In reality Gold is a dead hand. Whilst the price has been going up sharply in the past couple of years, by any long term valuation a pension fund investing in the Yellow Metal would be doing pretty badly. You cannot eat it, burn it, it costs you money to hold and gives next to no return. Its only value is in its rarity, the perceived attractiveness as Jewellery (although many consider it rather gaudy) and its macho appeal when held in vaults. There are very few investments for which the price has to go up for you to make a return and when everyone is calling for a rally it is often the moment that the wise money is just getting out. Remember, with interest rates at 5.5% in the UK, Gold must end the year at $950 (if you start from 900 today) for you to have matched just bunging the money in the bank. It is a good ‘benchmark of last resort’ for Central Banks to hold in reserve but for the average investor looking for long term returns...mmmm?
Gold continues to slide slowly as the Dollar stabilises and the Gold Spread is now down at $876.5-$877.0 some $40 from the highs of earlier in the week. As mentioned yesterday the rally has been so strong that the trend and momentum indicators could tolerate some very sharp downward price shifts and still remain Bullish. Medium term support can get down to $815 before breaking and Long term support remains all the way down to the low 700’s. Clients continue to buy on any weakness and we are seeing a steady trickle of purchases this morning.
Gold Spread Trading, 17 Jan 08
Gold fell again yesterday and this morning the gold spread betting market is called 2 bucks lower at $883.0-$883.5. With so many buying opportunities now available the value of Gold as a hedge may be waning slightly but if the markets slip again do not be caught short.
Gold Spread Trading, 16 Jan 08
Gold has shifted below $900 and as mentioned the more aggressive Capital Spreads Accounts sold out above $900 and have been proved right once again. The Gold spread is now at $884.5-$885.0 for spot Gold. It could actually fall all the way to $825 and still retain the medium term bullish trend and can get all the way to $720 before attacking the long term support. Remember in 2006 the price fell from $730 to $550. That said the trend is still to the upside so punters are still overall buyers on any weakness.
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Gold Spread Trading, 15 Jan 08
Gold hit new highs yesterday up at $918 before profit taking and sheer tiredness caused a bit of a pull back to the $900 level in the afternoon and evening. Continued dollar weakness has brought a few buyers out again this morning but it does, for once, appear half hearted. The Capital Spreads Account Holders are still very long but some of the more aggressive buyers have pocketed their bets and are now sitting out on the sidelines.
Gold Spread Trading, 14 Jan 08
With the dollar weaker this morning, Gold is (naturally) significantly higher in early action with the market trading well through $900 at 905.6-906.1. As mentioned many times in my morning comment it is very difficult to oppose the current moves. Every indicator you can think of is bullish and, no matter what my personal opinion of the value of an inert yellow lump of metal, it’s rarely wise to stand in the way of a rolling locomotive.
Gold Spread Trading, 11 Jan 08
As mentioned yesterday, Gold took the marginal weakness in the morning as another buying opportunity and ended the day up another ten bucks at $895, a new all time high. This morning we are slightly off with the Gold spread at $893.0-$893.5 but sellers are few and far between. $900 beckons and then the Eldorado of $1000, who are we to stand in the way of destiny.
Gold Spread Trading, 10 Jan 08
On the commodity front Gold, Silver and Oil all had a bit of a down day yesterday as the Dollar recovered slightly. Gold is weaker again down 5 bucks at $873.7-$874.2 this morning but this is probably just a bit of profit taking after we hit $892 in early action yesterday. Much as I am dubious about the value of the yellow metal from an absolute point of view the trends cannot be ignored and until the upward momentum is broken it is a fool who swims against the tide.
Gold Spread Trading, 9 Jan 08
On the commodities what can we say? Gold took out all resistance levels to surge to a new all time high and is up another couple of bucks this morning with the gold spread at $884.7-$885.2. The Capital Spreads Accounts have truly had an amazing time in the yellow metal. They have consistently been maximum long for the last two years and are still buying into any weakness.
Gold Spread Trading, 8 Jan 08
Gold is reacting to the minor dollar weakness and is moving sharply higher again overnight with the spot gold spread up $8 at $865.3-$865.8 with Financial Spreads. The momentum is very much in the bulls favour at the moment and, whilst my personal opinion of the value of the yellow metal is not one half of the current level, buyers continue to push us higher and higher. The peak at $869.5 is within sight but if we fail again up here it would increase the chances of a short term bear move. With crude oil having hit the fabled $100 level you can almost hear the slathering of lips over the potential $1000 price target.
Gold Spread Trading, 7 Jan 08
Gold is slightly lower today at $856.2-$856.7 but the love affair with the Yellow metal continues. Everyone always says Gold is an inflation hedge...I am still rather fogged as to why? It gives no real return, costs money to hold and apart from Ego and Vanity factors is not even used much. A product with little return appears to me to be a truly awful inflation hedge much better to buy stocks which can match rising prices with impunity (utilities spring to mind).
Gold Spread Trading, 4 Jan 08
Gold had yet another move higher yesterday with spot almost getting to $870. The highest gold has ever been is $873 in intraday trading. Investors seem to be piling in on any indication of US economic weakness so once again the figures today will be key. Clients remain long and reaping the rewards of this continued, sustained rally.
Gold Spread Trading, 22 Dec 07
The Daily Comment has now closed for the Festive period. We’ll be back up and running on 4-Jan-08. In the meantime, have a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
'Spread Betting on Gold' by DB, updated 18-Jan-08
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