Crude Oil is weaker (although up a tad this morning) as the lack of any actual bad news weighs on the long positions. We seem to have found some support at $88.30 in the Brent Crude Oil March contract but if this goes traders will be eying the crucial $86.30 level which held once in November and twice in December. To the upside the obvious target remains $100 but the March contract high is actually just around $98 and there is growing resistance to moves above $90.70.
Crude Oil Spread Betting Comment, 14 Jan 08
As mentioned last week, Crude Oil Spread Betting is struggling at the top end of the range as supply continues at the higher end and political friction seems somehow to be not as bad as feared. This morning Brent Crude is called a few cents higher at $91.30-$91.35 and we are now some $8 off the highs of the New Year. Will this be a year of falling gas prices? We must now watch for a series of supports at $89.30, $87.20 and $86.40. If we break these and close lower then the oil bears may finally have something to get their teeth into. The bulls however will be hoping for:
a) some US/Iran dispute, and/or
b) a renewed problem in Nigeria, and/or
c) a renewed problem in Pakistan, and/or
d) some sign that the world economy is not indicating a slowdown.
So the usual then.
Crude Oil Spread Betting Comment, 11 Jan 08
Crude Oil weakened again as supply problems appear to be fading slightly. China’s slight fall in trade surplus may be taken as a slowdown indication which could make for a reassessment of price expectations. But if the fall in the Chinese surplus is due to increasing domestic consumption rates the opposite may be the case. The February Brent Crude Oil spread is at $92.78-$92.83 up 60 cents overnight.
Crude Oil Spread Betting Comment, 10 Jan 08
Oil had a dramatic day yesterday as prices drifted lower only to run into weaker than expected US inventory number which caused a two dollar spike up to the resistance at $97.85 (February Nymex) only for this to hold steady and the sellers to take hold again and force the price down to close near the lows of the day again at $95.60-$95.66. This morning there is little change with the Brent Crude Oil spread off 20 cents at $94.22-$94.27 and we continue to be buffeted by non-financial events.
Crude Oil Spread Betting Comment, 9 Jan 08
Oil has regained some of the losses of the last few days as tension again rises in the Middle East with Iran, obviously needing to sell off a bit more forward production, causing a bit of a military confrontation with the US Navy (or am I being a bit too cynical?). The Brent Crude Oil spread is now at $95.84-$95.89 up 30 cents over night. Today sees the US inventories numbers so punters will probably be quiet until this is released at 15.30
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Crude Oil Spread Betting Comment, 8 Jan 08
Crude is continuing to react to the failure to establish a foothold above the $100 mark and we have now fallen $4.50 in two trading sessions. As mentioned yesterday the (relative) calm in Pakistan, which caused the initial spike, and the overall levels supply do not justify a price at these highs. But on the other hand we are one piece of bad political news away from $110 so traders will have to tread warily. The current crude oil spread is 94.37-94.42 for the Brent February market. Major support for the whole move higher is at around $92.00 so another day like yesterday would certainly set the cat amongst the pigeons.
Crude Oil Spread Betting Comment, 7 Jan 08
Crude Oil gave up on the $100 level in style, falling to $97.80-$97.86 for the Feb Nymex. The political fears of the Pakistan assassination do not appear to have materialised so we may have a great deal further to fall. In reality there is (at the moment) lots of the stuff sloshing about and from the inventories releases not much of a bottleneck here either.
Crude Oil Spread Betting Comment, 4 Jan 08
Crude Oil retreated from $100, but only mildly and you get the feeling that it won't take much to send the price hurtling to new highs if something bad happens or stockpiles continue to remain low. Despite all the hype about $100 the fact remains that we are not going to see cheap oil prices for a long time and the consumer's spending power is already being affected.
Crude Oil Spread Betting Comment, 22 Dec 07
The Crude Oil Comment has now closed for the Festive period. We’ll be back up and running on 4-Jan-08. In the meantime, have a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
'Spread Betting on Crude Oil' by DB, updated 18-Jan-08
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