Spread Betting Markets for 2010
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Spread Trading Update from Simon Denham of Financial Spreads.
Spread Betting Markets for 2010
So we begin a new year with both hope and trepidation in pretty much equal measure.
What can we expect this year?
Stock markets are quite well valued at the moment but equities continue to give better returns than virtually any other asset class, although this might not, of course, mean very much. However, the recent weakness in the Gilt markets is starting to place more attraction towards bonds.
Commodities look pretty much a one directional play with the Far East looking to soak up virtually anything dug, drilled or sucked out of the ground.
And currencies bash one way then the other as the attractions of the Dollar wax and wane on almost daily basis.
The problem is that much of what is written and speculated on comes with some massive health warnings from the point of view of the UK.
‘If’ Britain sinks into an Italian style public sector debt spiral, to add to the massive private sector debt pile, then a whole new Pandora’s box of problems will opened up for us.
Sterling, after falling heavily in H2’08, has actually been quite resilient for the last 12 months swapping periods of weakness for phases of strength. However, with an election due this year and with Growth and Tax revenue numbers continuing to disappoint, the pressure may well start to tell once again.
On the plus side for the currency, the markets are starting to speculate on inflation rearing its head. In fact it is already close to the Bank of England’s 2% letter writing level and this is likely to drive rates, across the curve, higher than the other major currencies, the 10 year Gilt is already above returns available from Italian debt.
This writer has been informed, correctly or not I do not know, that the VAT man, whilst indeed hiking his slice back up to 17.5%, has been allowing deferments in payment on a truly Herculean scale.
This forces one to speculate on whether the failure of the unemployment rate to rise in line with the GDP fall has more to do with it than with the resilience of UK plc. A temporary 15% hike in cash flow is always helpful!
The above comments do not constitute investment advice and neither Financial Spreads nor Clean Financial accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of them.
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
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'Spread Betting Markets for 2010' edited by DB, updated 13-Jan-10
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