Real-time Indices Prices and Charts
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Indices Spread Trading
A regular Indices spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Indices spread trading update, click here.
Indices Spread Betting, 15 Feb 08
The FTSE rather disappointed yesterday after a very late sell off took us from 30 or so up on the day into negative territory. Today we are looking to come in just slightly to the downside at around the 5875 level. There is hope that with neither Europe nor the Far East following the US weakness that we may be in for a nice and quiet day. There is resistance at 5915 to 5920 which if broken would give the bulls a target of between 6000 to 605. However a failure to close higher yesterday will have the bears looking for a pull back to 5825. A close below here would be short term negative and may give sellers the chance for a battle back down to 5680/5690.
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Indices Spread Betting, 14 Feb 08
Overnight the Nikkei has advanced some 500 points after Japanese growth (far from edging towards recession as was feared) came in at double economists estimates at 3.7% annualised in the forth quarter. With analysts expecting growth to be around 1.7% the question must be asked as to how, with such a massive source of data, the statisticians with all their wonderful models to play with can have managed to get it so wrong.
Today we are calling the FTSE spread to open back up at Tuesday’s closing level at 5915-5916 as all the rushing about of yesterday came to a plate of beans in the end. This week’s price activity in the FTSE 100 index has been quite comforting, as every attempt to take us lower has failed at a higher and higher price. This is a very general indication of a bull market move and (although it is only over a four day period) is giving our clients some confidence that the recent dark days may be drawing to a close for the time being. There is a sharp short term down trend line resistance at 5915 and then solid topside opposition between 5975 and 6020 but this will be the target of the bulls. Do not be deceived though, the bears have not gone away and the overall momentum is still to the downside. The sharp falls have been getting worse over the past six months and we are still very vulnerable to a change in sentiment.
Indices Spread Betting, 13 Feb 08
FTSE down 100, FTSE up 200, FTSE down 75 etc etc etc...markets continue to blast all over the place on the most tenuous of news. The Sage of Omaha’s offer to kindly reinsure some of the safest debt around (municipal bonds) has met with a swift rebut of ‘thanks a lot’ but ‘no thanks’ probably with a side comment of ‘we have quite a bit of "very attractive", previously triple A rated, stuff that you are quite welcome to. The upshot of the news was to bolster financial stocks across the globe as the sheep followed where Mr Buffet ‘appeared’ to be about to tread. Banks shares do indeed look attractive but there is probably a good deal of nasty stuff still out there just waiting to hit the news wires.
This morning the FTSE 100 has come in 75 points off, neatly wiping out nearly 40% of yesterdays rally in one go which has left a smile on the Financial Spreads Account holders’ faces as they were heavy sellers going into the close last night. As suggested yesterday, the 5700 support level proved too tough a nut to break and we hit a low at around 5705 before buyers outweighed the bears. The spread betting market is opening at 5830-5831 and it is difficult to think of anything to mention today. It still appears, to me, to be a far too dangerous market to get involved with. Day traders will continue to churn away (as they always do) but for serious investors, aside from locking in a bit of yield, the advice is probably still ‘cash is king’.
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Indices Spread Betting, 12 Feb 08
This morning the FTSE looks to be reversing yesterday’s falls as we call the market 50 points up on the off with the FTSE 100 spread at 5755-5756. This means that we have bounced off the 5700 level once more and this support will become increasingly important. Of course this is something of a double edged sword. Although it will give buyers some confidence to come in and pick up a bit of stock, it also gives the bears a target, that is quite close, to attack. The weakness was most evident in the banking stocks once again and the reduction in capital values of the financial sector might become a cause for concern as the economy tries to climb out of the current slowing effect of the credit crunch and, raw material inspired, inflationary spiral.
Talking to some market makers yesterday there seems to be some solid selling of Equity Put Options at prices that afford current good value. If the Puts get exercised presumably the buyers will want to own the stock at those levels anyway.
Indices Spread Betting, 11 Feb 08
We are calling for the FTSE 100 spread to come in around 45 lower at 5739-5740 as we react to the falls in the Far East earlier and the weakness in the US on Friday night.
Our Spread Betting Account holders have a very two way outlook with buyers virtually matching sellers on our books on almost all major indices (Dow, S&P, Dax, FTSE and Nikkei). This is not to say there is little interest either. We had more open positions over the weekend than at any time since the start of the year.
There is heavy support in the FTSE between 5690 and 5705 and we bounced four times from here on Thursday and Friday. It also proved solid in the last week of January. If we go for the down side from the open today then this may well give some pause to the bears. On the upside, bulls will be hoping that we can close above 5820 which has proved something of a ‘cusp’ point for the last three weeks.
Indices Spread Betting, 8 Feb 08
Today the FTSE is looking to rebound some sixty points from the close yesterday as investors try to recoup some of Thursday’s 150 point fall. The retreat, triggered by the 0.25% cut from the Bank of England, always looked overdone for the session and punters were hoovering up distressed stock in late trading yesterday. The Capital Spreads Account holders were especially interested in Banking and Telecoms stock after they suffered heavy selling in early afternoon action. Banks are not known to be natural dividend slashers so plus 7% looks very attractive in the current weakening interest rate environment.
The early FTSE 100 spread is at 5775-5776 but it would not surprise to see more on the plus side after such a gloomy week. Early action has a habit of failing to predict the eventual direction of the markets so it would be wise for traders to not get too carried away with any attempt to ‘bottom pick’.
Indices Spread Betting, 7 Feb 08
The markets are looking to open pretty much where they opened yesterday with the FTSE 100 spread 25 or so points lower at 5845-5846. We spent much of yesterday in negative territory and only managed to close slightly to the good on a last minute spike to the upside. Trading remains cautious as punters continue to look out for shell shocked stock and pick up small bets hoping for a turn around as the big dividend season approaches. Not many analysts have forecast any cuts in first quarter payout expectations so the short term return horizon should be quite reasonable. It is not difficult to foresee some judicious buying of stock in the days before the ex-div date on some of the higher yielding stocks.
Indices Spread Betting, 6 Feb 08
After expressing the fervent hope that Monday’s activity might presage a calmer time for the markets the US brought out some truly awful news. Numbers for non-manufacturing sentiment and activity seemed to indicate that the US is not just in recession but swiftly moving into depression. Of course the fact that we all read and hear dismal stories every single day means that individual’s responses to this type of questionnaire tend to be influenced not by their own personal situation but by their perceived impression of everyone else’s.
The FTSE 100 proceeded to slump 150 odd points and this morning is likely to open another 40 or so lower. With no help, for once, from the Far East (which has occasionally managed to buck the western trends) the outlook on the off is rather grim. Put another record on please, this one is beginning to bore.
BP’s poor numbers were somewhat assuaged by the hefty increase in dividend which should make for nice longer term returns (if you can survive the current turmoil). The fact that the year end figures came in worse than expected, the FTSE 100 shares fell 150 points and the price of oil fell a couple of bucks yet the shares ended the day on the side of the angels (just) bodes well for those who feel that a bottom may have been reached. The cost cutting in the management structure should add some billions to the long term bottom line. The BP share price is expected to come in this morning slightly higher again maybe around the 550p level.
Last August I wrote an article that revealed that the Capital Spreads Accounts were the longest they had ever been, with up bets outnumbering down bets by 15 to 1. Last week I was startled to hear from the risk desk that for the first time in the history of Capital Spreads these Spread Betting Accounts were net short of FTSE 250 stock. There were more negative bets than positive ones. It might be tempting to take this as an indication, possibly, that we may be reaching an equilibrium level for the current down turn.
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Indices Spread Betting, 5 Feb 08
Dealers were in a quieter frame of mind yesterday as the recent wild swings finally seemed to run their course. And in gazing into the (current rather foggy) crystal ball it is difficult to see what is going to crawl out of the woodwork next.
Today the FTSE is called to come in some 20 lower with the FTSE 100 spread around the 6000 level (a nice round number for us all to focus on). The resistance mentioned yesterday at 6060 held quite nicely throughout the morning and punters had a profitable time selling on every up tick and buying back on the re-tracements. There seems to be some reluctance to sell below the psychological 6000 level this morning and our clients are closing out shorts in hopes of a continuation of the recent move higher. We bounced three times yesterday (through the whole trading session) from the 5995 level and so this will be the early focus for day traders.
Indices Spread Betting, 4 Feb 08
As February gets underway it is not often that you can start a commentary, so early in the year, with a statement that celebrates a two week rally in the FTSE that has added 750 points to the index from the lows and then follow this up with the line ‘only 400 more to get back to the starting point of the year’!
The rally on Friday was actually quite surprising given the pretty awful US Non Farm Payroll figure which actually managed to come in negative. The reason given for the move higher was that the adjustments for previous month’s numbers were much better than previously thought. Sorry to rain on the parade but as a purely independent observer this would seem to indicate an even sharper (and therefore more worrying) downturn in recent months. This may go some way to explain the indecent haste over the Fed’s latest rate moves.
Today we are opening the FTSE 100 another 40 points higher as we follow the US and Far East higher. Having said that, we are running into some solid selling from our Capital Spreads Accounts on the pre-market quotes as some are slightly worried by the near $3 fall in crude oil and the drop in base and precious metals on Friday. In truth we may (finally) be in for a quieter day. The Capital Spreads dealers actually tested the phones on the open at 07.00 as they thought that they might not be working due to the lack of calls! There is some resistance in the index at 6060 (around where we are now) but there is not much until the 6175 to 6185 solid resistance levels which coincide nicely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at around 6190.
'Real-time Indices Prices and Charts' by DB, updated 15-Feb-08
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