On the currency trading front we are very quiet and with no news expected today it may well remain that way for the early trading session. GBP / USD looks to be quite happy at levels near to $1.9700 but we have made a habit of looking comfortable in recent weeks only for the support to be kicked away and sellers to come in 'big time'. The trend is still not Sterling favourable and so the "Pro’s" are favouring the short side in any volatile period.
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Forex Spread Betting, 14 Feb 08
On the FX side the Yen has slipped quite a bit over the past 24 hours (notwithstanding their growth numbers this morning). Heavy resistance at $107.35 failed to hold in yesterday’s action and Yen bulls were forced into some covering of positions which has forced us up the spread to $108.32-$108.34, the high since early January. The pound has gained slightly over the past few days vs both the dollar and euro which has given it a double whammy against the yen, pushing prices from 208.35 to the current 212.70-212.78. The previous move higher failed in the high 213’s and the daily trend lines are showing strong resistance higher at 216.50 to 217.00.
Cable at $1.9643-$1.9646 is experiencing a small bull run and is looking comfortable for the time being. The pound has made a habit of these rallies in recent months which look good but have a tendency to show marked signs of slowing down as they progress. They have each been followed by a sharp shift lower. The current move is likewise showing signs of running out of puff. The longs will be cautious of being caught in a fall out.
Forex Spread Betting, 13 Feb 08
FX markets are still stuck in the same range that has permeated activity since the turn of the year and without a signal of some kind they look well set to continue to do so. The GBP USD spread is $1.9553-$1.9553 is off 50 pips this morning. However it is well supported at $1.9390 and resisted at $1.9620 and $1.9900 so punters will probably try to trade these limits. The Euro continues to hover just under 0.75 vs the pound at £0.7435-£0.7437 and vs the dollar is mid range at $1.4540-$1.4542.
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Forex Spread Betting, 12 Feb 08
Sterling is also holding on to the recent lows with more buying in the low $1.94’s inspired by the hope that the BOE will keep rates high. The Euro made an abortive attempt (just before yesterday’s inflation number came out) to break above £0.75 level but this was swiftly smashed back on the release. For the time being, traders are likely to be nervous of being the first ones to buy above £0.75.
Forex Spread Betting, 11 Feb 08
Sterling having consolidated the falls of Thursday is now probing the downside once more with the Euro cross threatening the 0.75 level again. The EUR / GBP spread and is 30 pips higher at 0.7486-0.7488. GBP / JPY is also sloping to the down side after recovering slightly from the huge post-Christmas falls. The trend is beginning to look bearish once more and the cross is some 80 pips off at 208.08-208.16. Support is at 208.00, 207.40 and then 205.90. With the Bank of England continuing to worry about inflation the prop of high rates is likely to remain for some time but it is beginning to look a trifle worm eaten.
Forex Spread Betting, 8 Feb 08
As feared over the last few weeks, Sterling has taken it on the chin once more as the Dollar rebounds. The GBP / USD spread is now down at $1.9431-$1.9434 and the bears are in control for the moment. There is some support just below $1.94 from where we bounced yesterday and this morning, so in the absence of much news today, we may at least have a pause for breath today (fingers crossed).
The big loser over the past two days has been the Euro. Whilst Germany might be calling for higher rates the rest of Europe is crumbling under the weight of a strong currency coupled with a (relatively) tight fiscal stance. The normal band aid of currency depreciation for the ‘Garlic Belt’ is no longer available now that they are part of the Euro and in the absence of any serious attempts by their national governments to rein in spending they are now suffering badly. Up to now the ECB has stood aloof from their cries for help but suddenly there appears to be a crack in the façade and the olive branch of easier money seems to have been waved. Trying to tie so many variant economies into one package is not (and never was) going to be easy. The fact that the various work forces are so immobile (a Spaniard, with no German, will find it difficult to get a job in Germany) means that they are unable countenance population shifts as are possible in the States. Either all the countries have to agree a Central Economic Policy or the currency will always run the risk of splitting apart.
Forex Spread Betting, 7 Feb 08
The Forex markets turned Euro bearish yesterday after the hawkish ECB sentiment took a more dovish tone. We can now look at a scenario of trying to pick which of the major currencies is the most weak rather than trying to pick one that is strong. Aside from the Swiss Franc (which is only a major for investment reasons) the other four all have their problems and very few virtues. As money piles up in the emerging and energy producing nations, mainly in a one way flow from the more mature economies we may now be looking at the beginning of a long term sea change on economic power.
Forex Spread Betting, 6 Feb 08
GBP / USD renewed its weak trend after briefly looking perky on Monday and early Tuesday. We are now back at $1.9580-$1.9583 and our punters are selling into any up-ticks. Support remains in the low $1.9500’s but the bears still have the $1.92 level in their sights.
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Forex Spread Betting, 5 Feb 08
The FX markets look to be quiet as well this morning after the Pound managed to claw back half of Friday’s losses vs the dollar. We are building a tight trading range between $1.9550 and $1.9950 and this may dominate trading over the coming days.
Forex Spread Betting, 4 Feb 08
My fears over the pound (well recorded here) came to fruition as GBP-USD trading dropped over 2 cents and we returned to over 0.7500 vs the Euro. The only thing stopping a clean sweep was the fact that Yen trading has slipped a bit this morning which has recouped some of the falls made on Friday. With the MPC still sitting on a tight (by global terms) fiscal stance all we have to look forward to is the prospect of falling rates. It is the expectation of lower rates which tends to weaken currencies, not the actuality, unless you are stuck at virtually zero for ten years like the Yen. Until the BOE cuts to a level that is seen as a bottom we may be looking at a long term decline in the Pounds fortunes.
'Real-time Forex Prices and Charts' by DB, updated 15-Feb-08
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