Indices Trading Online
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Indices - Online Trading
A regular Indices spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Indices spread trading update, click here.
Indices - Online Trading, 21 Dec 07
The FTSE 100 spread is looking to open about 60 points up this morning as dealers look to the rally in the States last night and the Far East this morning. Yield valuations do certainly look tempting and the recent weakness in the pound will make margins appear even better (some 70% of FTSE 100 income comes from abroad). Punters will be looking for companies with high dollar and euro receipts in anticipation of a fillip in currency profits.
Indices - Online Trading, 20 Dec 07
The FTSE 100 is being called 10 points higher but things will almost certainly change the moment we open up. There were no surprises from the Bank of Japan who kept interest rates on hold at 0.50% and rates there are expected to remain at this level until the back end of next year. Things remain unsettled for investors and as volume is expected to fall as we approach the weekend, there could be a flurry of activity ahead of the futures and options expiry tomorrow. NB that the last time you can trade US December contracts is tonight. Punters remain long of the indices looking for a rebound from recent falls. However, as we approach the Christmas week, the trading ranges seem to be tightening up (finally).
Indices - Online Trading, 19 Dec 07
After an initial positive open the FTSE is dipping. This move and the recent declines just go to show how nervous investors are right now and it looks like there is going to have to be a big shift in sentiment to push the market higher in the run up to Friday's futures expiry and the year end. The news that Northern Rock has received a further £60bn and that the Treasury has extended its guarantee to creditors of the bank has not done any good for its credit rating. The credit rating agency Moody's has downgraded its financial strength rating to E+, making it effectively impossible for them to borrow from anyone else other than the Bank of England. Early equity news movers include WH Smith who received an upgrade from UBS to “Buy” from “Neutral” and BP who have been downgraded by JP Morgan from “Overweight” to “Neutral”. An important support level on the downside for the FTSE is 6185 so a move below this could open the way for a retracement below 6000.
At the time of writing Capital Spreads are calling Wall Street to open just a little below where it closed last night at 13222 (10 points lower).
Indices - Online Trading, 18 Dec 07
It seems that nothing will turn the markets round just at the moment and oddly enough the prevailing mood appears worse than when we were down at 5800 back in August. The news flow is relentlessly bad (or maybe that is just the way I am reading it). My discussion with an analyst, of whom I normally take note, concerning the good value of banking stock at current levels was less than encouraging. Stating that he wouldn't touch them until yields hit 10%, at least, which prompted me to put my hands back in my pockets.
The FTSE 100 spread is coming in around 10 lower at 6263-6264 as the Far East managed to hold fast and the US has recovered somewhat from last nights late drop. We are seeing strong buying interest on the pre market prices and dealers will be hoping for some bounce from yesterdays 100 plus fall.
Indices - Online Trading, 17 Dec 07
Not a good start to the week.
Markets looked reasonably stable when we left for the weekend at fiveish or Friday only for the Americans to decide that holding positions over Saturday and Sunday was not for them. The weekend press and the Far East have added to the bearish feel and the FTSE 100 spread is looking to come in at around 6309-6310 about 85 points lower (errrr...a bit of a finger in the air that one). The chance of another 100 plus day are pretty strong.
The S&P ended 20 points down and is called another 5 off this morning and the Nikkei dropped 260 shadowing a big 900 plus point fall on the Hang Seng.
Aside from the John Lewis partnership, the run up to Christmas appears quite grim for retailers as shoppers stay away in greater numbers. I made a personal pilgrimage to the west end last week (her indoors wanted something suitably overpriced) and was surprised at how depopulated the whole place was.
Readers of this column would have been surprised at how long it has taken the newspapers to start talking about the constraints on bank lending from, not just the Credit Crunch, but from the fall in their own share prices. Banks have been scrabbling around the world searching for cash injections as there are strict rules concerning lending limits. One of the units in the calculation is the actual capital value of the bank itself. If the shares have dropped 40% this creates a mismatch which must be plugged and without fresh capital they will be severely restricted on next years lending.
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Indices - Online Trading, 14 Dec 07
A 200 point fall on not very much info has raised a few eyebrows.
The Dow Jones and S&P 500 actually managed to close up on the day right at the death which means that this morning the FTSE is being called 50 points higher! Clients made hay yesterday on the big fall and then turned right round and went long so there should be a few champagne corks popping around the place this morning. With a FTSE 100 spread of 6417-6418 (our early morning guesstimate) the market is still below some important levels at around 6430 and 6460 but conversely is still holding the short term recovery pattern from the lows a month ago.
In all the fury of the current markets it is getting difficult to separate facts from all the noise. Are we entering a recession? Is this just a banking problem? Is the dollar in terminal decline? Will my daughter ever manage to say the word 'duck' correctly? All difficult questions to answer. With no corporate news of note today it is difficult to get excited for the early morning action. This afternoon however sees another raft of US data to worry about. This time in the guise of CPI (13.30) Capacity Utilisation (14.15) and Industrial Production (also 14.15). Why can't they bung them out at the same time? The important one may be the industrial production number because at the moment this is the one bright spot in the US economy. If this starts to weaken then (on top of the housing and banking problems) analysts will start to sharpen their downgrading pencils.
Indices - Online Trading, 13 Dec 07
FTSE opens 110 points lower proceeds to rally to 70 points up, then falls to trade lower again before finally closing 20 higher. And this morning? Ha! Last night we were quoting the FTSE to open at around 6540 almost unchanged on the four thirty close. And so where do we actually come in? Down at 6475 another 70 point shift.
The action of the Fed yesterday (in conjunction with other central banks) to add almost $100bn in liquidity is very difficult to follow. That is $100,000,000,000, just in case the word billion becomes too jaded through over use. Are things really that bad in the financial sector? If so, should we not be rather more worried that the rest of the economy seems to be gleefully ignoring the situation? My credit card limit was increased (without me asking), hardly the action of a banking sector worried about liquidity. Northern Rock continues to offer mortgages, as do other financial institutions, companies continue to borrow money, albeit at slightly worse terms and personal debt levels continue to rise. There seems to be a dislocation between the continued availability of credit on a personal and corporate level. At the same time the banks themselves seem to be struggling to find pennies behind the cushions of the fiscal sofa.
Anyway this morning, as mentioned, we see the markets lower once more with the FTSE spread at 6490-6491. Looking around these levels there seems to be strong resistance to moves above 6560 with the market trading above this level on each of the past five days only for the closing levels to come in lower. Conversely there is also strong buying on any dips with moves down being swiftly reversed. A close below 6440 and more importantly 6400 may trigger more bear targets but (at the moment) the probability is greater for an attempt at the higher resistance level of 6560.
This afternoon sees the release of the US retail sales and PPI numbers at 13.30 and these could trigger some interesting times once more. I have commented in the past that it would be nice if the financial markets could just regain some composure and give dealers a break from the daily manic trading conditions. The general slowdown over the second half of December should soon be upon us and the hope will be that with the lower investor interest levels should lower trading ranges. I think I said the same prayer for the month of November and the first few weeks of this month!
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Indices - Online Trading, 12 Dec 07
The expected 1/4 point cut in the Fed was obviously not what was hoped for by traders as the Dow proceeded to dump 300 points having been up about 30 before the decision. Only a small minority admitted (before the announcement) that they were expecting a full half point but quite evidently that opinion had not filtered down to the dealing floor.
Capital Spreads clients made hay in the sun as they went into the Fed announcement heavily short of both the US and the European markets. This morning they will be sitting on some nice little profits if the FTSE opens as expected some 50 to 60 points off from the close yesterday. This is actually rather better than the quote we were making at 9pm last night where the expectation was for the index to come in close to 100 lower. The failure of the Far East to join in the US lemming-like leap into oblivion has given hope to European investors that this morning will not be the bloodbath expected late yesterday. Early calls are for the FTSE to open at around the 6485 level but this is, to a certain extent, just an educated guess as we could come in some 20 to 30 points either side of this.
The US market rout merely reversed the last three days rally and the Dow has now rallied overnight to the psychological and technical support/resistance level at 13500. A close above here would give the bulls hope that the short term bull run has not been terminally holed but the bears are circling ominously with a whiff of recession and inflation in the breeze. The Chinese inflation numbers at just under 7% were an unwelcome start to proceedings and in truth should have seen the markets fall on this alone. The fact that the US traders waited until after the Fed announcement shows that they still live, to a certain extent, in their world of ignoring virtually everything un-American.
Indices - Online Trading, 11 Dec 07
The FTSE ended the day flat yesterday and today we are calling the London market to open 20 points higher around 6585 following another strong session in the US. After the US close last night Texas Instruments raised its Q4 revenue target and as a result the US futures are higher this morning. At the time of writing we are calling Wall Street to open as much as 45 points higher at 13772.
Interest rate expectations are truly driving the markets. At the moment they seem to be showing some resilience in the face of further surprise announcements from major banks of subprime write downs. The 6600 level was rejected rather sharply yesterday and remains a level of focus for technical traders. A move through above here would be an indication that the bulls are in control, which certainly seems to be the case judging by the last week. Financial stocks and house builders are in favour at the moment as investors see them as being direct beneficiaries of lower interest rates and they have suffered from the brunt of the recent selling. Optimism about today's rate decision in the US is dominating momentum in the market as noises about lower rates throughout 2008 fuels the bulls.
The Fed is expected to cut rates by 0.25%, but there is a camp which believes that there's a possibility of a bigger move lower. Such a move would probably lead to a rally higher for equity prices. However people might then worry about why the Fed has made such an aggressive move and growth concerns might creep in and just reverse the indices. All eyes on the data at 19h15 London time and the accompanying statement.
Indices - Online Trading, 10 Dec 07
The FTSE is being called lower this morning as indices in Asia overnight drifted a little lower. The big story this morning however is UBS announcing a $10 billion writedown of their subprime investments. This could lead to a profit warning for the European bank and the sector will remain volatile despite Lloyds providing an in-line trading statement. The mining sector will also be active this morning after the Telegraph reported that the private equity firm Blackstone is plotting a bid for Rio Tinto. Capital Spreads clients should benefit from this news. They are mostly long of Rio Tinto Spread Betting stock believing that the share price could be subject to a bidding war. Airline stocks have received a little help after an upgrade from neutral to buy.
'Indices Trading Online' by DB, updated 21-Dec-07
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