The trading range of the FTSE almost exactly matched the previous days efforts with the ultimate result also almost identical. The markets continue to wrestle with the 5970 to 6100 range and my comment about many traders waiting for one or the other to be defeated still remains in place. Yesterday’s action was an absolute boon to our clients who as mentioned in yesterdays comment have been heavy sellers at anything above 6050. The fall down to 5950 brought out heavy profit taking and then a strong reversal which many punters bought into. The net result was a lovely profit on the way down and an even better one on the way up.
We are still stuck just under the 6100 level this morning but the bulls seem to have the best of it at the moment. Every time we get up to this level it seems as though the break out is imminent only for traders to run out of steam.
Indices Spread Betting, 24 Apr 08
The markets this morning are looking to be coming in slightly weaker after the short squeeze yesterday. The closing level was still not significantly above the resistance levels around 6065 and 6080 mentioned yesterday. A break below 5980 or above 6100 is required to indicate the next direction.
Today sees the opening FTSE spread around 30 points lower at 6050 and it looks like the Capital Spread Account holders are sellers yet again. As they have continued to be every time we have been close to the 6050 level over the past six or seven trading sessions.
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Indices Spread Betting, 23 Apr 08
Markets today are a bit more optimistic than was forecast late last night. The closing quote for the FTSE 100 at 9pm was down at around 6000 after the US fell in late trading. But this morning the Far East has held steady and valuations have perked up.
The FTSE 100 spread is now at 6060 - 6061 and we continue to hammer, for the sixth day in a row, at the resistance levels between 6065 and 6075. The price action is tightening up which indicates (normally) that a price spike out is on the cards. Whether this move is to the upside or down only time will tell but a close below 5985 or above 6075 may well be the trigger.
Indices Spread Betting, 22 Apr 08
Opening levels this morning are looking a tad on the nervous side after the Far East ignored the strength in the US and Europe and retreated from seven week highs.
The FTSE failed yesterday to make any attempt at the 6100 resistance and, in fact, failed to break convincingly above 6080. Dealers working from the long side will now be anxiously watching the screens after four days in a row of hammering at the mid to high 6000’s failed to achieve a breakthrough. Banks will almost certainly be marked down this morning but this might be counteracted by the oil and mining sector (again). The initial trading is seeing some buying coming in and the opening level at around 6020 seems to have been rejected.
Indices Spread Betting, 21 Apr 08
The Markets today are pushing for the upside once more and the FTSE is pressing through the resistance between 6065 to 6075 mentioned last week and there is the potential for an early move on the top of the trading range at just above 6100.
This marks the forth attempt this year to get above (and stay above) 6100. There will be a number of bigger players who have been sitting on the sidelines for some considerable time who may well become more active if the bearish sentiment shows signs of turning neutral to positive. The current FTSE 100 spread is 6075-6076 and clients are (sorry to say) heavy sellers up here.
Indices Spread Betting, 17 Apr 08
As we have seen, the near term effect of the Bank of England announcement has been a big rally in the markets as the relief has taken its course and the senior index is now back above 6000 once again. The close above the 6000 mark was good to see as this is the first requirement to break the current weakness but the next two levels at 6060 to 75 and 6100 are more important. This move marks the forth attempt since the turn of the year to regain the higher trading ranges but it must be pointed out that without the Mining sector contribution the index would be significantly lower.
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Indices Spread Betting, 16 Apr 08
The markets seemed to have perked up somewhat this week as investors boldly try and push the FTSE back towards the 6000 mark. The level is meaningless with regards to valuations but for some reason it seems to be either a barrier to bulls when we’re below it or it’s a support when we’re above it. The last few weeks have shown that not only is 6000 a bit of a magic number for the FTSE 100, but the market is so nervous that resistance to push above it concertedly can clearly be seen.
In the absence of any really bad news this morning and a good positive move higher in America yesterday and Asia overnight the UK market is playing catch up and we’re calling the FTSE spread to open around 5960. Short and medium term bulls are asking themselves whether a low has been marked for the time being and it would certainly seem to be the case as the attempt to test lows at the end of last week and on Monday look to have been rather half hearted. However, Financial Spreads accounts are more bearish of the UK at the moment and have been selling into this strength, perhaps thinking that 6000 will once again prove a big hurdle. It’s not often that I look at the client positions on the global indices to see that there is a really mixed bag with bulls of US tech shares, a flat US blue chip equities book and FTSE bears. Too often it’s the case that clients have a one way view across all the indices but it just goes to show that there is a real mixed feeling about things at the moment.
Indices Spread Betting, 15 Apr 08
The FTSE 100 is opening around 50 points up on, well, nothing very much just the normal Mining and Oil rallies! The Far East managed to stop yesterday’s rot but the Hang Seng and Nikkei did not exactly roar away this morning...both indices recorded small gains.
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Indices Spread Betting, 14 Apr 08
The FTSE 100 spread this morning has been spot on coming in to open 50 points lower around the 5845 mark. The market wasn't helped by a weak close from US markets on Friday evening and a move lower by Asian markets over night. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell as much as 3% and in Shanghai stocks suffered a 5.5% move into the red. The FTSE book is flattening out a little with clients having been heavily short all of last weak and a few people are closing out of their positions for a profit this morning.
Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Indices Trading April 2008' by DB, updated 25-Apr-08
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