Indices Trading
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Indices Spread Trading
A regular Indices spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Indices spread trading update, click here.
Spread Betting on Indices, 5 Sep 08
Yesterday was not pretty and a big sell off following the Bank of England's decision to keep rates on hold proves to the bulls that they are in the minority. The index drifted sideways for a little while after the decision and then just gave up falling 175 points in the space of 3 hours. The saying "unch", "lunch" (the interest rates being unchanged, so everyone goes and has lunch) lead to a nasty shock when traders returned to their desks to see that the market was plummeting. Comments about the outlook for inflation and the economy from ECB Chairman Trichet was the main reason behind the selling and when the US markets joined the party, they took no prisoners.
Overnight the US markets fell 3% with the Dow Jones ending up 344 points lower at 11,188 so this morning we are calling the FTSE to open 50 points lower at 5312 The S&P has failed at every attempt to head back above the 1300 level throughout August and now its well and truly given up on attempting it again for a while to come. Technically yesterday's move indicated great weakness in equity markets and some market commentators have suggested that as long as there is no 13 in front of the S&P 500, there is a real possibility that there will be a 10 sometime soon. Such a move will lead the Dow to be well and truly below the 10,000 mark.
Spread Betting on Indices, 4 Sep 08
The FTSE 100 is flat to slightly higher this morning and clearly traders are cautious ahead of today's decision. Later in the afternoon focus will move to the US markets as we see the release of non-manufacturing data due to post a rise above the key 50.0 level. Keep an eye on oil markets as inventory data is released this afternoon, postponed from yesterday as Monday was a bank holiday in the US.
Spread Betting on Indices, 3 Sep 08
Despite the continued weakness in oil prices the FTSE 100 is suffering from bearish sentiment this morning down some 55 points at 5560. The Dow had a heavy fall yesterday as investors moved out of heavy weight energy stocks, but there is a feeling that equity markets could test recent highs again if oil prices head below $100 remain down there for a while. If inflation abates then central banks could interest rates low or even bring them down and growth could pick up a little earlier than many expect. It is a very optimistic view and one that is not being perceived by the market this morning, but we are already off the lows recorded in early electronic trading before the open.
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Spread Betting on Indices, 2 Sep 08
The FTSE was remarkably resilient once again yesterday in the face of a Chancellor who has finally admitted that the economy is not going to be as buoyant as he had previously predicted. It really does show just how out of touch this government is after having predicted growth of the UK economy to be around 2% earlier this year in his March budget, Captain Darling now says we are facing the worst economic conditions in 60 years. Not only are they showing a non-existent understanding of the maths behind the UK's current state of affairs, but they continue to squabble and remain indecisive over tax issues. Radical action is required to save their political future, but one cannot help feel that even if they reduced income tax to 0p in the pound for everyone, they would still struggle to turn around the opinion polls.
The market is being called a little lower, some 10 points to 5592. Despite the recent weakness of Sterling, it is just the sort of move that UK manufacturers have been asking for. Holiday makers who go to the continent will not be enjoying the way things are going with the euro now fetching 81.3p when yesterday it was fetching just 81.0p. The tide has truly turned against Sterling as it takes another battering against the Dollar, trading down another 150 points today at $1.7866. Before the market hit its highs in the middle of 2007 the FTSE had endured 3 years of rising stock prices, but at the same time a strengthening pound. With so many of the FTSE stocks earning their revenues in dollars the market never quiet managed to break to the record highs that were made by other indices eg the German Dax and US Dow Jones. A weaker sterling is good for UK stocks and this will be one of the contributing factors to the FTSE 100 maintaining its ground around the 5600 level.
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Spread Betting on Indices, 1 Sep 08
The FTSE is in for a bout of profit taking this morning as we commence the week with more worrisome news about Wall Street bank Lehman Brothers. The bank is in serious difficulty and crying out for financial assistance from anyone who will be happy to bail them out. They could spin off its commercial real estate portfolio which is valued at around $40bn and even though this would probably be one of their best options, they are reluctant to do this. In a few weeks they report their numbers and are desperate to close a deal before reporting an expected further $4bn write down on top of the $8bn they have already declared.
We are calling the index to open 45 points lower at 5591 despite the news off a major banking takeover in Germany. With the US markets closed for Labour day trading is likely to be quite a low volume day. Things get more interesting as the week goes on with interest rate decisions in the UK and Euro zone and US employment data to wrap things up on Friday.
- The FTSE 100 closed last week up 131 points at 5636.6 (up 2.38%)
- Wall St (Dow) closed last week down -84.1 points at 11543.96 (down -0.72%)
- The Nasdaq closed last week down -47.19 points at 2367.52 (down -1.95%)
- The S&P 500 closed last week down -9.37 points at 1282.83 (down -0.73%)
- The Dax 30 closed last week up 79.88 points at 6422.3 (up 1.26%)
- The Nikkei closed last week up 406.83 points at 13072.87 (up 3.21%)
Spread Betting on Indices, 29 Aug 08
If the FTSE maintains these levels to close the week above 5600 then that could be seen as a good indication that higher prices are to come. However, this week's move has been on the back of low volume so investors remain cautious with the majority of the Capital Spreads Account holders continuing to believe that this rally will be short lived. Sustaining this recent rally will be tested next week as the US is on holiday on Monday. That means volumes will remain low until the latter part of the week (non-farm payrolls are released next Friday) and then should pick up towards the middle of September. If rises continue on bigger volumes then this is a good indication that sentiment is changing and the bulls are back in control. As mentioned yesterday we rose through the 5550-5570 level easily and so the next target for the FTSE is 5685 to 5720 which are technical projections.
With a long weekend ahead for the US it is likely that we could have a quiet days trading today as there is little on the economic data front and investors could shy away from the market. Some clients are even short covering any long positions they may have just in case there are any serious political developments over the weekend. The Democratic convention in Denver is grabbing all the headlines at the moment. That has meant the breakdown in diplomatic relations between Russia and the West has been cast aside for the time being. However it could easily come back into the spotlight over the next few days.
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Spread Betting on Indices, 28 Aug 08
Despite all the little signs of weakness the FTSE 100 and indices in general are showing remarkable resilience. US economic data yesterday showed durable goods much stronger than expected, with orders higher in many sectors. This data gives a very important indication about the US economy showing that production is remaining strong. The fact that June's figure was upwardly revised as well lead to a relatively strong day for US stocks.
We are calling the FTSE to open just a few points lower (7 to be exact) at 5521 as the futures indicate early signs of a little profit taking. As mentioned yesterday a key level for the FTSE is 5500 and any move towards that level will probably attract clients to sell into the strength as overall they remain bearish. 5500 was rejected earlier in August, so resistance is seen around there and a break higher will come only with impetus. Looking at yesterday's news flow it's difficult to see where that impetus will come from since many of the sort of cyclical stocks you'd expect in a poor economic environment drifted lower yesterday.
Spread Betting on Indices, 27 Aug 08
Politics is very much grabbing the headlines at the moment with the US Democratic and Republican conventions underway and Russia trying to goad the West into another Cold War. With the finishing line in sight for George W, the prospect of the US electorate being completely split when it comes to November and the world's biggest economy on its knees it looks like Russia sees an opportunity to kick whilst the US looks well and truly down. The markets however seem to have largely ignored this threat of a diplomatic breakdown between Russia and the West with US indices rallying off their lows in the final hour of trading and this morning we are calling the FTSE to open absolutely bang on where it closed last night at 5470.
Yesterday was quite a volatile session with the index being down as much as 135 points in the morning but recovering throughout the day. 5500 remains a challenge for the FTSE and if there is to be a breakout in any direction from the recent range it'll have to be 5550 above and 5250 below before we can make a judgment on whether the index is going to spend the next few weeks forging new lows or making a recovery. The news flow would certainly suggest that pressure is to the downside and it is unsurprising to see that spread betting clients are very bearish at these levels as they expect resistance and political tensions to drive prices lower.
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Spread Betting on Indices, 26 Aug 08
The FTSE is due to start this shortened week heavily in the red after the August Bank Holiday as London catches up other European indices who headed lower yesterday and US and Asian indices were also suffering from fears over the stability of the US financial system. With the collapse of regional bank after regional bank across the pond and continuing uncertainty over the big mortgage lenders, the foundations of Wall Street are still being shaken by the credit crunch after shock.
With the FTSE 100 ending last week on a positive note, above the 5500 mark, it looks like the recent rally has come to an abrupt end as we call the index to open some 75 points lower at 5430. Banking stocks will be hit this morning and contribute to much of the losses, but there is some hope being offered by the miners after Rio Tinto announced a 55% rise in first half profits as they continue to benefit from strong Chinese demand. Not only has the Olympics have been a tremendous success for "Team GB" but the Chinese hosts should continue to reap rewards from huge investments, meaning big miners will continue to benefit from one of their largest customers.
Spread Betting on Indices, 25 Aug 08
- The FTSE 100 closed last week up 50.8 points at 5505.6 (up 0.93%)
- Wall St (Dow) closed last week down -31.84 points at 11628.06 (down -0.27%)
- The Nasdaq closed last week down -37.81 points at 2414.71 (down -1.54%)
- The S&P 500 closed last week down -6 points at 1292.2 (down -0.46%)
- The DAX closed last week down -103.6 points at 6342.42 (down -1.61%)
- The Nikkei 225 closed last week down -353.37 points at 12666.04 (down -2.71%)
Spread Betting on Indices, 21 Aug 08
The FTSE is expected to react to the weakness in the Far East and is called some 20 points down at around the 5345 level. Dealers appear to be in two minds about virtually every asset class at the moment with virtually everything oscillating wildly throughout the trading session yesterday.
The performance of the Dow Jones overnight indicated that the markets might be finally discounting the financial basket cases as the rally of 70 points rather flew in the face of the fact that Fannie and Freddie fell another 25% leaving them both at new all time lows. As mentioned several times over the past week the companies are technically insolvent and it is merely hope that is giving them any value at all. Of course the Treasury might take pity on investors and agree a bail out at a solid valuation but this would fly in the face of virtually everything the Americans believe in about capitalism.
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Spread Betting on Indices, 19 Aug 08
Punters made hay yesterday as the markets wilted under the pressure over in the States with Financial Spreads clients holding heavy short positions in the Dow and S&P. Today is likely to be dull in the morning session after the initial shift to take into account the US and Far East activity. There is no corporate or economic news from the UK this morning so investors will be looking around for inspiration, the ZEW EC confidence figure at 10.00 might be the only morning focus and this is expected to fall to around minus 65 which would be a new record. This number would effectively say that 82.5% of respondents were negative on future prospects as against just 17.5% positive. Even in a recession a good percentage of businesses do reasonably but if these numbers were reflected in actual forward GDP numbers the Euro Zone could be in for something really grim.
The FTSE 100 spread is opening around 60 points lower this morning and we are struggling to find serious buyers. There appears to be a natural caution as to whether the recent rally was just a bear squeeze in a long term down trend or if the low at around 5050 last month really indicates the nadir of this particular downshift. The fact is that investors seem to be willing to dribble funds into shell shocked stock whilst taking profits on anything remotely in positive territory. Couple with Market Makers sitting resolutely on the fence for a great many reasons (not least the fact that the cost of borrowing money to hold onto stocks is penal at the moment) the possibility of stake building seems a long way away right now. The market is opening at around the 5390 level and there is some support at 5375 and 5355 with weak resistance at just above 5400 and then around 5425.
The FTSE is being remarkably restrained at the moment in the face of the US markets screaming all over the place. Intraday activity on the Dow is very violent with 250 point trading ranges virtually every day. The closing levels on the UK senior index (until today possibly) have been contained by just 90 points over the past ten sessions.
Spread Betting on Indices, 18 Aug 08
- The FTSE 100 closed last week down -34.4 points at 5454.8 (down -0.63%)
- Wall St closed last week down -74.42 points at 11659.9 (down -0.63%)
- The Nasdaq closed last week up 38.42 points at 2452.52 (up 1.59%)
- The S&P 500 closed last week up 1.88 points at 1298.2 (up 0.15%)
- The DAX closed last week down -115.63 points at 6446.02 (down -1.76%)
- The Nikkei closed last week down -149 points at 13019.41 (down -1.13%)
Spread Betting on Indices, 15 Aug 08
As is the markets wont the confirmation of economic woe across Euroland and a sharp rise in US inflation caused a strong rally as err...I’m not sure really. Short covering? Acknowledgement being half the solution? Small furry things from the planet Zarg?
Anyway the outlook today for the Indices is pretty peaceful on the open with the FTSE called a sliver higher and the Dax 30 up about 20. Interest will focus on the commodities again with Gold smashing down through the $800 level overnight as Goldman Sachs give a mid $700 target in the short term. Crude Oil also likely to open $1.50 lower as the Dollar continues to head higher.
Trading ranges over the last month have been exceptional in the US spread betting markets with 250 points a day being quite normal for the Dow. The trend since mid July has been higher but the intra day moves within this have been almost frightening.
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Spread Betting on Indices, 14 Aug 08
The city may be basking in the early morning sunshine today however on the markets there is very little to be cheerful about. Swerving Mervyn released the Bank of England's quarterly inflation report yesterday which implied that interest rates were going to remain at 5% for the remainder of the year even though inflation was going to rise to over 5% on the CPI measure, a whole 3% above its target. This gave the FTSE a short term bounce but when reality hit home and the markets realised that the Central Bank was going to use a recession rather than Interest Rates to cool inflation the FTSE then fell back down to 5450. That still looks a little pricey given the current torrent of bad news and the Financial Spreads Account holders are continuing to increase there short positions in expectations of further falls.
Spread Betting on Indices, 13 Aug 08
This morning sees the FTSE and Dax off a tad in response to the US late move and the further weakness in the Far East. We are opening around 5510 in the FTSE, off about 25 points and 6540 in the Dax (50 lower). JP Morgan who had been one of the stars of the Financial Sector finally succumbed to credit deterioration and even the mighty Goldman Sachs suffered a rating downgrade as the lack of new business continues to impact income. The Credit Crunch continues quietly to impact growth potential as banks remain reluctant to increase corporate loan books. In fact we seem to be seeing something of the reverse with weaker debt being offloaded as banks continue to shore up their balance sheets.
Spread Betting on Indices, 12 Aug 08
Trading in the FTSE this morning remains to the downside after the recent bear market rally. With the Mining and Oil sectors coming under heavy pressure many will be faced with the long term effects of higher production costs with falling product price. The darlings of the last three years risk turning into Pariahs.
Spread Betting on Indices, 11 Aug 08
- The FTSE 100 closed last week up 134.5 at 5489.2 (up 2.51%)
- Wall St closed last week up 408 at 11734.32 (up 3.6%)
- The Nasdaq closed last week up 103.14 at 2414.1 (up 4.46%)
- The S&P 500 closed last week up 36.01 at 1296.32 (up 2.86%)
- The DAX closed last week up 165.19 at 6561.65 (up 2.58%)
- The Nikkei closed last week up 73.82 at 13168.41 (up 0.56%)
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Spread Betting on Indices, 8 Aug 08
On the stock front the FTSE seems likely to largely ignore the huge drop in the US yesterday evening and opening FTSE 100 spread is being called at around 5455, down 20 points or so. As mentioned yesterday the resistance at 5440 has now turned to support and having failed to close above the 5515 level in some frantic trading during yesterdays sessions punters will probably be eyeing the chances of either a bounce from this level or another significant shift lower. Banking stocks are called lower again but Mr Varley, Barclays’s CEO, was sounding cautiously optimistic about market liquidity so we may even get some relief here in the medium term.
Spread Betting on Indices, 7 Aug 08
With the FTSE backing off from the after hours high (the Capital Spreads quote got to 5515 last night) dealers are wondering if the market can follow through on the rally of Tuesday. The signs were actually quite encouraging after the natural reaction yesterday to sell on the 170 point move higher ground to a halt by midday and buyers drifted in again. The overall valuations appear to be fair given the level of information available to us at this time. If the economy does slip further than current expectations then, or course, the markets will have to fall to reflect the corresponding squeeze on margins but the feeling in dealing rooms seems to be that UK plc has been hit hard enough already. Most retailers and Banks are around 60% off highs which appears overdone. The risk now is for the non UK portions of the index (mining, Oil, etc) which has been performing well but now looks vulnerable to a sell off if the current commodity weakness continues. The FTSE could find itself being pulled in opposite directions with UK centric stocks outperforming foreign based units.
Old resistance at 5440 is turning into support and it will probably take some further bad news to take us through here in the morning session but all eyes will be on the MPC at 12.00. Expectations are for no move but there has been some leaking of Hawkish opinion over the past week. Probably more along the lines of “we are not going to change this time but bear in mind we could hike rates” rather than any actual move this time. Inflationary pressure remains external to a great extent but the BoE will not be pleased if wage inflation starts to pick up. I would expect that more analysts will be watching this number rather than the actual inflation figure.
FTSE 100 resistance is at the 5515 high of yesterday but the open at around 5460 this morning probably means that no down or upside attack is likely until the afternoon session.
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Spread Betting on Indices, 6 Aug 08
European indices have fallen back a little from early highs following a good run higher on Wall Street last night. The FTSE opened just below resistance seen around the 5475 level which many consider to be the next big hurdle for the index in order to push higher. We were actually calling the market higher than this, just below 5500 late last night and before the open, but the sellers are in control at the moment with bulls remaining apprehensive in what is still technically a bear market.
US indices were very strong last night after the Federal Reserve left benchmark interest rates on hold at 2% and indicated that they were in no rush to hike rates higher. Maybe the Bank of England should take a leaf out of their book and accept the fact that the rise in global oil prices is the main contributing factor to higher inflation which is largely out of their control. Of course oil prices have been dropping off their highs recently which should help to convince the hawks on the MPC that there's no need to vote for a hike in interest rates tomorrow. With the downside risks to growth ever increasing the pressure is mounting for the BoE to consider the effect any action it takes will have on the economy. Higher rates will spell further turmoil for the housing market and hit the consumer where it hurts and it's the last thing that a decimated banking sector needs right now.
Spread Betting on Indices, 5 Aug 08
Today is likely to start on the soft side with the FTSE called some 15 points off at around the 5305 region as mining and oil stocks begin to weaken in the face of sliding commodity prices.
Spread Betting on Indices, 4 Aug 08
- The FTSE 100 closed last week up 2.1 at 5354.7 (up 0.04%)
- Wall St closed last week down -44.37 at 11326.32 (down -0.39%)
- The Nasdaq closed last week up 0.43 at 2310.96 (up 0.02%)
- The S&P 500 closed last week up 2.55 at 1260.31 (up 0.2%)
- The DAX closed last week down -40.25 at 6396.46 (down -0.63%)
- The Nikkei closed last week down -240.17 at 13094.59 (down -1.8%)
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Spread Betting on Indices, 1 Aug 08
The FTSE is opening 50 points lower after the late action in the US (again) and our Capital Spreads Account holders continue to be heavily short as they were for all of yesterday’s falls. The fact is that investors cannot decide whether equities are good value at these levels or if this is just a waypoint in a general longer term decline.
Banks continue to oscillate between disaster and redemption and it would appear that the low point has been hit for the time being. Investors are now beginning to worry about the other sectors previously lightly touched by the general falls. Mining and Oil stocks are seeing heavy selling from Financial Spreads Accounts and the fear must now be over the premium values in these sectors.
Notwithstanding the opening falls, markets are expected to be very slow for the morning session as we all await the slew of data from the States starting at 13.30 and continuing to 15.00.
Spread Betting on Indices, 31 Jul 08
Another big move higher in the Dow took the shorts by surprise and squeezed them mercilessly. With many stocks in the FTSE in the target sights of bear raiders there is a very good chance of a similar move happening over here with banks especially ‘vulnerable’ to a sharp shift higher.
HBOS have come in with a profit of £931m, miles ahead of estimates from analysts of under £800m. Deutsche Bank has also been over done on the downside and has reported a profit of €650m (€200m above expectations). On the downside both Shell and Unilever have missed their ‘clean’ forecast numbers, Unilever by a fraction but Shell by a monumental £500m.
On the indices none of this will probably make much of a difference as (for the third time in three days) the FTSE reacts once more to late night activity over in the US. But the headlines in the newspapers will almost certainly focus on the 1.7% monthly drop in house prices which will be adding further pain onto an already hurting building sector.
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Spread Betting on Indices, 30 Jul 08
After the schizophrenia of the US markets showed through once again yesterday the FTSE 100 is looking to open in the exact opposite mode to Tuesday.
Yesterday the market was being called 60 lower and today it is being called 60 higher. What is odd is that the close on Monday and Tuesday was almost identical so the two opening quotes show a straight disparity of 120 points due entirely to US activity in late evening trading.
Spread Betting on Indices, 29 Jul 08
The FTSE is due to come in some 50 points down with Financials once again to the fore after heavier losses were announced by Citigroup and Merrill said that they would require further funding. Over in Japan Nomura also revealed a surprise loss for the 1Q which will put pressure on European broking houses. It had been thought that all the volatility over the past year would have continued to generate a favourable business environment for the middle men but obviously this has not been the case.
Spread Betting on Indices, 28 Jul 08
- The FTSE 100 closed last week down -23.8 at 5352.6 (down -0.44%)
- Wall St closed last week down -125.88 at 11370.69 (down -1.09%)
- The Nasdaq closed last week up 27.75 at 2310.53 (up 1.22%)
- The S&P 500 closed last week down -2.92 at 1257.76 (down -0.23%)
- The DAX closed last week up 54.06 at 6436.71 (up 0.85%)
- The Nikkei 225 closed last week up 531.06 at 13334.76 (up 4.15%)
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Spread Betting on Indices, 25 Jul 08
The FTSE looks to be opening some 45 points off after Thursday’s decline of 87 and traders, who had been hoping for some relief from these violent reversals, have been disappointed.
The damage appears to have been done by a sudden loss of confidence in the US. The schizophrenia over banking woes reared its ugly head once more after home sales experienced their biggest drop in eight years (one wonders what the number was back then). Banking stock which had been looking a bit healthier is likely to get it in the neck on the open this morning after late trading in European Banks in the US was very weak.
Spread Betting on Indices, 24 Jul 08
Unfortunately for the FTSE the preponderance of Mining and Oil companies (which has helped over the past year) will now probably hold it back if commodity prices continue to weaken. There is always something out there to feel miserable about! As mentioned yesterday our clients were strong buyers of Bank stocks and the reaction in the markets to the ‘better’ news coming from Citygroup et al was reflected in a strong performance to add to the post rights bounce of the previous days. Dividend yields continue to look stellar and a few units have already announced ‘no cuts’ which (if the BOE does begin to cut rates) will make their attraction rather more obvious in time. Yields on most UK centric stock are looking attractive if you can play the ‘long game’ but this does not mean that there is not a strong possibility of yet more pain just over the hill. The bear market hasn’t done with us just yet.
Spread Betting on Indices, 23 Jul 08
The FTSE 100 is opening sharply higher at around the 5420 level having traded as low as 5280 yesterday afternoon. There is strong resistance at the 5430 level that might hold us back in early trading but if the bulls can maintain their momentum then a break through here would put 5520 in the target sights. On the down side there is support between 5370 and 5380 but below here dealers will probably be looking for the low 5300’s for further help.
Spread Betting on Indices, 22 Jul 08
The FTSE 100 is due to come in some 40 points off at around 5365 after the US sold off in after hours action due to disappointing numbers from Apple.
Vodafone is at the bottom of expectations with FY revenue expectations now down at a miserly £40bn! The stock is a pretty big segment of the FTSE 100 so the opening level could be even worse.
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Spread Betting on Indices, 21 Jul 08
- The FTSE 100 closed last week up 114.8 at 5376.4 (up 2.18%)
- Wall St closed last week up 392.03 at 11496.57 (up 3.53%)
- The Nasdaq closed last week up 43.7 at 2282.78 (up 1.95%)
- The S&P 500 closed last week up 21.19 at 1260.68 (up 1.71%)
- The DAX closed last week up 229.35 at 6382.65 (up 3.73%)
- The Nikkei closed last week down -235.99 at 12803.7 (down -1.81%)
Spread Betting on Indices, 17 Jul 08
The FTSE is looking to open around 50 points to the good this morning some 140 points off the lows at Midday yesterday but this still only leaves us at around the closing price of Tuesday and well below all 2006 and 2007 traded lows. The charts now show nine straight losing weeks. Something that is unprecedented.
Spread Betting Account holders rode the rally well yesterday with many more longs than shorts making for a nice little turn for many clients. Added to this the selling at $1.60 in the Eur/Usd and the heavy shorting of Crude Oil before the inventories number yesterday and it all adds up to one of the best days this year for the majority.
Spread Betting on Indices, 16 Jul 08
Early calls on the FTSE are for the market to rally some 30 points to around 5200-5201 but the woes surrounding the financial sector seem to get worse and worse. RBS’s fall into the mid 160’s is truly astounding given that even the most bearish analyst was only talking about 230p a couple on months ago. The bank is now worth less than they paid for their bit of ABN Amro which makes the debt taken to do the deal loom ever larger in investors minds.
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Spread Betting on Indices, 15 Jul 08
And, after the Dow’s dismal performance last night followed by a 2-3% drop across the Far East, this morning we have opened lower again.
The Dax called 80 lower and the FTSE 40 off. This might actually be considered a ‘good’ achievement after the draining away of confidence throughout yesterday’s trading session. The FTSE is now sitting just above a minor support level between 5240 and 5260 but if we close below here the focus will alter towards the major 5085-5120 support from 2005. The only thing holding the index higher at the moment are the mining and oil stocks, if commodities do begin to weaken or even just stabalise then this crutch could well be kicked away as well.
Spread Betting on Indices, 14 Jul 08
Markets look to be on the plus side this morning as we look forward to a reasonably quiet week on the UK corporate news front. No major banks or builders are due to say anything at all during the week which will come as something of a relief I am sure. Not only this but mining and oil is also a tad on the light side with the only piece of news being a production update from Rio on Wednesday.
Early calls are for the FTSE 100 to come in some 60 points up but this is more to do with the US Friday night rally and the news that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are being given a rather more overt government backing than the current implicit support. How this gels with the fact that it is a quoted company I do not know.
- The FTSE 100 closed last week down -151.2 at 5261.6 (down -2.79%)
- Wall St closed last week down -184 at 11104.54 (down -1.63%)
- The Nasdaq closed last week down -6.3 at 2239.08 (down -0.28%)
- The S&P 500 closed last week down -23.41 at 1239.49 (down -1.85%)
- The DAX closed last week down -118.91 at 6153.3 (down -1.9%)
- The Nikkei closed last week down -198.2 at 13039.69 (down -1.5%)
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Spread Betting on Indices, 11 Jul 08
European indices are trying to end the week on a positive note and if we end the day at the current levels it will be just about where we started the week off albeit a few points higher.
For the technical analysts the weekly candlestick will have created a "doji" which is considered to be a sign of indecision whereby buyers and sellers are balancing each other out and is seen as a indication of a reversal. It does not come as much surprise since the market seems to have hit a bit of a bottom and recent calls for the FTSE 100 to test the 5000 level have been proved wrong so far. You would not be blamed if you were wrong for thinking that a low has now been set. This weeks price action has shown resilience in the face of terrible news flow and continual bearish sentiment. It will take brave investors to pile heavily into the equity market but as mentioned earlier in the week, even in bear markets indices can rise dramatically. Since the FTSE has posted a near 14% loss in the last 2 months, the temptation could prove all too great and despite rates remaining on hold yesterday, the signals are that rate will not be going up in a hurry.
Spread Betting on Indices, 10 Jul 08
The battle at these low levels has become quite ferocious as the FTSE 100 tries to decide which direction it wants to go in. In the last six trading days the market has rallied strongly four times and been battered heavily lower four times, making for eight 100 point plus moves. And yet we open this morning at pretty much the same point as this time last week.
The overnight falls in the Dow Jones and S&P will weigh on our opening sentiment but the Far East pretty much ignored the worst trading session in S&P 500 financial stock for six years so the impact might not be as bad as was being indicated late last night.
The opening call on the FTSE is for a drop of some 80 points at around 5445 still well above recent lows in the mid 5300’s but a disappointment after the strong performance yesterday when many of the banking and builder stocks picked up after a torrid few days. It is getting very difficult to call one day after another as sentiment on trading floors seems to turning on a six pence with very little rhyme or reason to explain the moves. The fact that the BOE will be announcing its latest interest rate decision will also make trading a touch dangerous for the early session.
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Spread Betting on Indices, 9 Jul 08
Bear Market...so yesterday the FTSE 100 finally entered "official" bear market territory and it's hard to believe that people have been so slow to accept that so far this year the equity markets have been trading with all the hallmarks of a bear market. It's true to say that not all sectors have been out of favour (energy and mining) but even now there are doubts over these stocks as their share prices have snapped back from their highs. If we see further declines in these sectors, and a great deal of that will be down to whether oil and precious metal prices fall from their highs, then indices could struggle to recover the ground they've lost for a few years.
Bear markets are distinguished by their lifetime as well as how low they last. When you look at the last bear market we endured, which started in 2000, it lasted a good three years. So if the credit crunch from a year ago was the trigger (which seems most likely since bank stocks started to tumble then), we could be looking at depressed stock prices until the end of the decade.
This morning we have a bounce from indices after Wall Street stocks rebounded fiercely. At one stage last night we were calling the FTSE 100 to open as high as 5520. It often seems to be the case that once the headlines spell doom and gloom for everyone that the following day the markets rebuff all the comments and everyone wonders what the fuss is about. However, be under no impression that a rally here or a rally there means we are out of the woods. In March this year the markets tried to recover and that ended up as a cat that was not even born. Capital Spreads Accounts remain on the short side, selling into this morning's strength and this will probably remain the case if indices show anymore strength.
The markets are now higher and we are back to 5500 for the moment after Asian stocks bounced off a 21 month low. Today is quiet on the economic data front and the trading ranges of European indices will probably remain narrow until US markets open after lunch.
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Spread Betting on Indices, 8 Jul 08
Well so much for yesterday’s rally. The early call is for the FTSE to come in over 120 points lower which is exceptional even in these days. Normally we have to trade for a while before the market takes this kind of a dive. Banks and Builders will once again lead the way down and Bradford and Bingley widely reported last summer as not being another Northern Rock now transpires might be an even worse basket case in that it could go to the wall for very good reasons (bad loans) rather than NR’s very bad reason which was lack of liquidity.
It is getting increasingly worrying that many UK banks appear on the cusp of implosion when the wider economy has not actually yet felt much in the way of the cold winds of recession. Corporate loans have not seen much analyst focus to date as most of the investigation has been into the housing market but most of our major banks have huge small and medium business risk. Of course the equity prices of many of the banks seem to have written in worst case scenarios by the bucket load but we stand in danger (small at this point I realise) of a 1990’s Scandinavian style bank failure.
Spread Betting on Indices, 7 Jul 08
Last week’s Indices: With US markets closed for 4 July the US Indices fared better than the rest of the world. Wall Street and the S&P fell by 0.5% and 1.2% respectively. The FTSE 100 and Nikkei 225 both dropped another 2.3% and the Dax lost 2.1%. Elsewhere, Emerging Markets Indices saw falls of 4-6%.
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'Indices Trading' by DB, updated 05-Sep-08
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