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Indices Spread Trading
A regular Indices spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Indices spread trading update, click here.
Stock Market Spread Betting, 20 January 2012
Yesterday saw a few rays of sunshine for the Eurozone as Spain and Portugal managed to not only find buyers for their debt but also keep the interest rates low.
This aided the improved sentiment we have seen this year and helped the FTSE break through and close above the 5700 to 5720 area. The next target level for the bulls is 5770, October's high.
A strong performance from US markets, particularly the Dow, is also assisting European markets and so we have seen the FTSE open at 5740 this morning.
This has seen the stock market index move clear of its 200 day moving average on the daily chart, which we have also seen from the US markets as they continue to move.
For more on the recent strength of the global indices spread betting markets please see Bullish Indices Spread Betting Markets Rally on Strong European Bond Auctions.
Stock Market Spread Betting, 19 January 2012
This morning the FTSE 100 spread betting market remains in undecided territory which is where it has been for the past few days.
A bit of encouragement for the bulls yesterday is that the index managed to close above 5700, however it is still yet to break the back of resistance at 5720 or even test last October’s highs around 5770.
Hovering around 5700 again at the time of writing, indices spread betting investors seem keen to watch how things unfold in Greece and whether a deal can be struck over the restructuring of its debt.
Stock Market Spread Betting, 18 January 2012
Markets continue to remain strong in the face of mounting concerns over the European debt crisis.
The FTSE is up some 2% so far this year and any dips seem to be met with decent support and buying that takes us back towards the highs.
Yesterday saw the index fail once again at the 5720 level which is a cause of concern for the bulls but European indices look strong, forging ahead to new highs as opposed to struggling at their resistance levels.
With the German DAX and French CAC leading the way it could only be a matter of time before the FTSE gets trough this near term resistance barrier and tests the highs from October last year around 5770.
The DAX in particular yesterday was in flying form following the ZEW survey, which was still negative but jumped the most since records began.
This was what supported the German index yesterday, edging it ever closer to test its 200 day moving average on the daily chart, and this morning the index is expected to commence just in the black.
The FTSE meanwhile has remained above its 200 day moving average for the whole year so far and it would seem that it is simply allowing its European counterparts to catch up with it.
This morning the FTSE was expected to commence fairly flatish but once we got underway we were indeed in the red at around 5770.
Financial Spreads' clients remain bearish with overall short positions on the FTSE expecting the near term resistance to stand firm and the index to become over powered by the European situation again.
Stock Market Spread Betting, 17 January 2012
China has proven today to some degree that the argument between a soft and hard landing is slowly being won by the soft camp.
Their GDP figures overnight were always going to be a focal point of trade today as we remain heavily reliant on the Asian economies to fuel global growth.
As a result, when the number came in at 8.9%, higher than the expected 8.7% it resulted in a strong rally for base metals which has followed through to mining stocks so far this morning.
Previously in this comment we have noted that China is very different to Western economies and therefore Western thinking. With their considerable reserves they have the firepower to bring things down slowly if they want to and for now the plan seems to be working.
With the world’s second largest economy still growing near 9% the prospects of a global recession are limited, even if things in Europe continue in the fashion they are going.
The increased optimism in equities seen throughout this year is very encouraging for the outlook in 2012. The old statistic that the equity market will have a positive year if the S&P 500 finished higher after the first five days of trading is certainly looking to play out, although it is very early days.
At the time of writing we are calling the Dow to open higher by 120 points from its close on Friday. It will be interesting to see whether that can be maintained when US investors get back into their offices later this morning after their long weekend.
Often you see that US futures don’t like being led by European markets and can reverse their move, however this time round the rally might be sustained simply because of the GDP data from China. Currently the Dow is marking a near 6 month high.
Our spread betting account holders remain sceptical however, presumably with the belief that the Eurozone woes will rule. Selling into the recent strength has left them nursing a few wounds this morning.
Stock Market Spread Betting, 16 January 2012
After a nervy end to trading last week investors remain cautious following the S&P’s downgrades of the likes of France and other European countries.
It acts as a stark reminder that all is not well within the Eurozone and the main threat now is not that other ratings agencies might follow suit, but that the EFSF bailout fund might be next.
With talks for dealing with Greece’s debts breaking down last Friday there was a double whammy for the markets as fears over an eventual default increased, most likely in March when their next bout of refinancing is due.
Without the full backing from Germany to back Greek debt and turn it into an attractive investment, the Greeks have pretty much no hope of staying in the Eurozone.
The money presses are standing by to be restarted and dish out Drachmas after they were put on hold just over ten years ago.
The indices spread betting markets suffered decent losses on Friday as the rumours of the downgrades spread, but not quite as much as you might expect since investors knew that France and others were on the S&P’s downgrade watch list. Once it became apparent that the rumours were true, the market recovered from its lows.
This morning a bit of weakness has greeted the early session, but at the time of writing a few bids are pushing the market higher.
The FTSE had consistently been called to open some 10 to 20 points lower than it did and since then it’s been drifting higher, however caution seems to remain the order of the day so far.
With US shares closed for Martin Luther King day, trading will probably be thin and there’s no economic data due for release.
The FTSE may have had a decent start to the year, albeit slightly spoilt by Friday’s decline, but it remains rather range bound, capped by strong resistance up at the 5700/20 area and support seen around 5350.
If we cast our memories back to the first half of 2011, the FTSE spent months trading within the same range before finally breaking out to the downside.
With so much uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone it’s hard to see the market rallying to new heights, but at the same time there just seems to be enough optimism there to prevent a major crash.
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Stock Market Spread Betting, 13 January 2012
The FTSE this morning is faring well after strength from US shares in the latter part of its session last night fed through to the Asian markets.
Riskier equities continue to attract the buyers with miners doing well which gives you an indication that risk appetite is building. At the time of writing the FTSE is trading at 5700 and the index has that near term barrier to test around 5720.
Things are relatively quiet on the economic data front today, with nothing like a Non Farm Payroll due, but an Italian bond auction will be a focus following the success of yesterday's Spanish auction.
So far this year European debt has been bought and yields have been driven down so this is also helping to translate into a bit of fresh risk appetite amongst equity investors.
Stock Market Spread Betting, 12 January 2012
A little bit of strength from the US markets towards the end of their session is translating into a mildly decent start for European equity markets.
China still plays a huge part in the whole game and a fall in its inflation has been seen as a good thing as it should mean some policy easing from the People's Bank of China.
There's been a huge amount of debate about whether there's going to be a soft or hard landing for China's economy in 2012 but the bottom line is that their economy is already landing. But probably at an airport in the mountains as opposed to the lowlands of flat growth.
It's not only in the world's interests that China continues to grow fast, but it's in their own and you can expect their policy makers will want to keep things that way.
Onto the main topics of today and the focus of trade will be on European central banks where both the BoE and ECB announce interest rate decisions.
From a financial spread betting market perspective the ECB meeting will be the one to watch because that's where the real crisis is.
We've had two cuts in interest rates from the new President which reversed the simply bonkers rate hikes in the middle of last year and the unofficial commencement of its own quantitative easing program.
Expectations are for rates to remain on hold, although at some point in the first half of this year they will probably cut the rate again. The press conference that follows the decision will most likely confirm that the second round of QE will go ahead at the end of February as already announced.
Apart from those main announcements, people will want to see their view on the hording of ECB cash by European banks and how they might encourage them to start lending that money as opposed to depositing it with the ECB.
For the BoE's part things are also expected to remain on hold as they attempt to understand how the restart of asset purchases is affecting UK markets.
With this current round of purchases due to end next month there's a chance further QE will be instigated in March.
If growth does not contract, and even surprises to the upside as some of the PMI surveys indicated it might, Mervyn King will be quick to claim that it was the work of the BoE that led to the growth.
Before and after these central bank decisions there is also a little bit of other data that's worth being aware of and that's industrial production from the UK and EU this morning. At lunchtime we will also have retail sales as well as the weekly initial jobless numbers from the US.
The focus won't just be on the economic data either as Spain undertakes a bond auction today which will also be closely watched to see how much yield investors will demand from them to buy their debt this time round.
The open of the FTSE has taken a little turn for the worse as we were calling the index to open higher by some 10 points but we have commenced the session 10 points in the red.
The 5700/20 level remains the major near term hurdle for the index and if the bulls can get us above here, the next resistance is seen at last October's highs around the 5770 area.
Stock Market Spread Betting, 11 January 2012
A little bit of profit taking this morning gives the bulls a time to reflect on the decent start to 2012 for equity spread betting markets so far.
It is interesting that our calls have not been higher ahead of the open considering that Asian indices continued their strength and the Australia 200 index made mild gains, with mining stocks benefiting from higher copper prices.
At the time of writing the FTSE is just in the red at 5690 as it seems to be finding the 5700/20 area a bit of a struggle for now.
Over the medium-to-longer term this rally might have a little further to go as long as the indices remain above their 200 day moving averages on the daily charts. The Dow has been comfortably above here since the middle of December, however the German Dax is yet to even achieve this.
The focus for UK shares this week has been the retailers that have been reporting.
Even though on the whole they have beaten forecasts, the sales have been driven by huge discounting and prolonged sales, which in turn has eaten into profit margins.
This is leading them to cut costs and its likely we’ll see the not profitable part of the year for retailers, so the first half, leading to job losses across the sector.
The overriding concern and difficulty for them is that the outlook for the UK consumer remains very bleak, even if macro data has surprised to the upside.
Stock Market Spread Betting, 10 January 2012
The strength from the indices spread betting markets this morning comes somewhat as a surprise considering that the rhetoric from European leaders seems to be focusing more on the possibility of a Greek exit from the Eurozone.
Whilst the drivers behind the new EU treaty maintain that a break up in any form is not desirable, they are starting to accept that Greece is a “special case” and becoming more and more likely to leave.
The optimism though is probably coming from the fact that Merkozy are hoping to bring forward the deadlines for agreement on the new treaty and have it all in place by March. In addition this would come with plans to stimulate growth as their “second pillar” part of the plans.
This is all very ambitious and there’s still a huge amount of detail that’s required to be fleshed out. Not least is the issue of how a new treaty will be enforceable when one of the EU’s biggest economies and contributors to the EU’s coffers is not taking part.
The hope of focus shifting away from Europe in 2012 has been quashed as investors continue to look at how various bond auctions and summits go as opposed to the economic data and corporate results which have been surprisingly positive.
US investors remain optimistic of a positive year for equities in 2012. For those statisticians out there, the chances of a rally in equities for the year have just been enhanced, at least from a historical standpoint, by the S&P 500 closing higher after the first five days of the year.
The Dow also continues to hold onto the ground above its 200 day moving average and looks poised to have a go at marking new highs. This comes following good numbers from Alcoa, despite being loss making, as the US earnings season gets underway.
European markets are being propped up US and Asian markets and one has to think that if it wasn’t for the European sovereign debt crisis the Dow would probably be forging ahead to a new all time high.
Stock Market Spread Betting, 9 January 2012
Traders are ignoring the continued concerns over the Eurozone this morning as the FTSE commences the week on the front foot.
We had been calling the index to open lower this morning by some 25 points but it has actually opened to the upside somewhat surprisingly. At the time of writing the index is at 5565.
The index has got off to a mildly positive start for the year and across the pond the Dow has had a comparative January so far.
The first few days of January are considered to be a good measure for the remainder of the year and even if things might have been a little shaky, we’re up almost 2% which bodes well for equities going into 2012. It indicates that despite the headwinds, there is a degree of risk appetite out there.
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Stock Market Spread Betting, 6 January 2012
The last final salary pension scheme provided by a FTSE 100 company comes to an end today as Shell closes its policy of providing new employees with a guaranteed pension.
This is a significant move which is the last of almost all pension schemes provided by the private sector, meaning that many more private sector workers now have to go it alone.
It's not as if Shell's pension fund has been in trouble, as it was one of the best funded schemes out there and will have no trouble in keeping up with payments when their existing members retire. However, it goes to show that even Shell is unwilling to take on the liability of such a strain on their balance sheet going forward.
With an ageing population we all know that we're going to have to work longer and probably for less when we come to retire, which for now the majority of the public sector is unable to appreciate.
Even the proposed reforms, if they are accepted by the unions, do not save the government anything substantial because of the concessions they have had to make. And of course in a few years time the issue will have to be looked at again.
It's a contentious issue that's causing unrest within the public sector but gradually it looks like many within the sector are coming to terms with the fact that the government has no money. It has to make savings and bring these pensions in line to some degree with the private sector in order to make them sustainable.
We'll see more and more private sector schemes inevitability follow in this direction and in time the UK consumer will gradually turn into more of a saver than a spender. Unfortunately this isn't ideal for the economy in the long run as it relies so much on us spending.
The FTSE was being called to open higher than we've actually commenced the day following the close of the Dow last night which managed to hold onto its levels. However, overnight both the US futures and our FTSE quote have been dragged lower by weak Asian markets.
At the time of writing we're some 15 points higher, so slightly better than the opening calls would have suggested, but not exactly steaming ahead.
The FTSE remains tentatively above its 200 day moving average, having broken back above there at the beginning of the year. Whilst this is meant to be a signal for further strength, we saw a similar break above here in October which was not sustained.
The Dow on the other hand has been above its 200 day moving average since just before Christmas but continues to be kept from making any further gains as Europe drags at its heels.
The DAX 30 is still 300 points below its own 200 day moving average and so lagging substantially and until it makes a concerted move to the upside, gains for the likes of the Dow and FTSE could be limited. Of course we all know what's needed for the DAX to catch up.
Stock Market Spread Betting, 5 January 2012
Indices spread betting markets are expected to track sideways this morning as investors continue to cast doubt over the strength at the start of this week and year.
A little bit of doubt crept into investors' minds yesterday after the ECB revealed that a record amount of funds had been deposited with them overnight and the share price of Italy's largest bank hit its lowest level since March 2009.
The fact that such a huge bank is struggling to recapitalise after the ECB pumped all that money into the markets only a couple of weeks ago raises the same old fears about the Europe wide banking system.
We may be in a different year but we face the same problems in 2012 as we did in 2011 and even Germany isn't immune to being targeted.
Yesterday their bond auction was well subscribed but the yield just crept upwards. Today the bond auctions continue with the focus being France.
Europe's second biggest economy is under the spotlight today as they face exactly the same problems as the peripheral countries. France suffers from too much debt and a slowing economy, at a time when they are introducing austerity measures of their own.
Their triple A credit rating is also under severe scrutiny from the rating agencies who have already fired some shots across their bows at the end of last year.
A downgrade would be the next step towards the slippery slope for France as it would cause their borrowing costs to spike, making their job of getting the house in order even more difficult.
Investors will also want to hear how much was deposited at the ECB overnight just as they have in recent days. This is becoming another focal point for the spread betting markets as it is acting as a bit of a fear gauge.
The more cash held with the ECB earning nothing at all, the more worried banks are about their own counter parties.
Out of all this, the UK continues to benefit as our own gilt market benefits from risk adverse investors helping to drive the yields on those bonds lower.
A good result for the Coalition who pride themselves on our low borrowing costs, which are almost as low as Germany's and indicate the confidence in their austerity plans.
Stock Market Spread Betting, 4 January 2012
The rally that markets have enjoyed so far this year looks to have come to an end as investors look like they might have just got a little ahead of themselves.
The calls on the open are to see a mild decline for the FTSE and its European counterparts as a little bit of weakness crept in overnight in Asia.
You can't expect indices spread betting markets to continue going up in a straight line forever and the start so far to 2012 might have been a little too bullish for some people.
Today people will be focusing on a German bond auction with hopes that it'll go smoothly and the yields demanded by investors will not exceed those of the UK which they did briefly last year.
With lots of bond auctions going ahead into the New Year this will be one of the themes going forward and investors will be keeping a close eye on this side of things.
As well as all the debt that needs to be refinanced by European countries there's more summits and meetings between European leaders, although for now there's been little focus on the next one so far this year.
This could be seen as a good thing for many as the markets seem to be settling and there's no summit to worry about for now.
US markets have continued to storm ahead with the Dow Jones showing particular strength. The index is well above its 200DMA and, whilst many people claim this move higher is part of a broader bear market rally, few are betting against losses for US equities which are proving much more resilient than European indices.
Yesterday's move by the FTSE brought it back above its 200 day moving average, whereas the German DAX still languishes some 300 points below its.
These remain testing times for equity investors where the bulls continue to claim that there's plenty of value out there to be had. For investors that remain hungry for returns and yield, stocks do remain an attractive asset.
A bit of economic data today from Europe and mortgage approvals from the UK are expected to show continued low levels. The highlight of the day from a data standpoint though is the prelude to Friday's Non Farm Payroll as the ADP private payrolls are released.
There are clear signs that employment in the US is accelerating as the weekly initial jobless numbers have been ticking lower and lots of the other economic surveys have been better than expected. Today's number is due to show another healthy increase in jobs created by some 170k.
Stock Market Spread Betting, 3 January 2012
2012 has got off to a flyer with the FTSE recouping almost half of its annual losses on the first day of trading.
Yesterday a few European indices such as the DAX and CAC were open and they started the New Year with aplomb, being boosted by stronger than expected manufacturing data across the continent. Indices have been boosted further overnight by a good Chinese PMI number to kick things off.
Buyers have piled into mining stocks this morning as a bout of increased risk appetite sweeps through the markets as the FTSE plays catch up.
Those who have read many of the headlines this morning will be forgiven for thinking that the year would start on a down note. Report after report suggests that people in the UK are expecting more than before for the economy to dip back into recession.
Confidence remains beaten up and the high street has suffered further blows with retailers under pressure.
Even though the PMI data released across Europe yesterday was better than expected, it still remains well below the 50 level suggesting contraction and a recession across the continent is possibly even underway as I write.
The New Year also kicks off with quite a bit of economic data with the UK's own manufacturing PMI data which is expected to fall further below the 50 level. However, don't be surprised if this comes in slightly better than expected following on from yesterday's good numbers in Europe and overnight in China.
Then we get the same data from the US, including construction spending numbers, which unlike their European counterparts are expected to show the US economy continues to ride the storm.
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Indices Trading' by DB, updated 20-Jan-12
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Hungary 12 Spread Betting, updated 03-Feb-12
Hungary 12 spread betting. Where to find Hungary 12 real-time prices and charts, how to spread bet on the Hungary 12 index and the most popular spread betting questions on Hungary 12...read article: Hungary 12 Spread Betting.
Greece 20 Spread Betting, updated 03-Feb-12
Greece 20 spread betting. Where to find Greece 20 real-time prices and charts, how to spread bet on the Greece 20 index and the most popular spread betting questions on Greece 20...read article: Greece 20 Spread Betting.
Turkey 30 Spread Betting, updated 03-Feb-12
Turkey 30 spread betting. Where to find Turkey 30 real-time prices and charts, how to spread bet on the Turkey 30 index and the most popular spread betting questions on Turkey 30...read article: Turkey 30 Spread Betting.
Korea 200 Spread Betting, updated 03-Feb-12
Korea 200 spread betting. Where to find Korea 200 real-time prices and charts, how to spread bet on the Korea 200 index and the most popular spread betting questions on Korea 200...read article: Korea 200 Spread Betting.
Taiwan Index Spread Betting, updated 03-Feb-12
Taiwan Index spread betting. Where to find Taiwan Index real-time prices and charts, how to spread bet on the Taiwan Index and the most popular spread betting questions on Taiwan Index...read article: Taiwan Index Spread Betting.
How to Spread Bet on Stock Market Indices, updated 22-Dec-11
How to Spread Bet on Stock Market Indices. A look at how to spread bet on stock market indices such as the FTSE, DAX and Wall Street indices. Plus an indices price comparison and answers to a range of how to spread bet on stock market indices questions including finding free charts and live prices as well as...read article: How to Spread Bet on Stock Market Indices.
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