The FTSE 100 is still constrained by the 4000 level, even though we had an attempt on it late on Monday. 4000 and 4050 also has quite a bit of legacy volume resistance and failed moves (both higher and lower).
The medium term (one year) downward trendline is currently at 4015. These factors make for a sizeable resistance to any move higher but also act as an irresistible magnet for those desiring confirmation of the end of the bear market.
The best bet at the moment might be that, with the drip drip of slightly better news filtering through, there will be further moves to the upside at least to make an attempt even if the attempt fails.
Spread Betting on Indices, 26 Mar 2009
There’s no question that there are certainly bulls around at the moment and a willingness to buy stock when the market retrace at the moment.
Another sharp recovery on Wall Street in the very last hour of trading (100 points in the last 15 minutes) has lead to a positive start for European indices this morning, albeit a small one.
The test for the FTSE now is 4000 which has only been flirted with so far this week. On Tuesday morning our quote rose above 4000 but the underlying cash index is yet to trade there and whilst it’s only 100 points away at the time of writing, it seems quite a long way off as the momentum in this recent move up just seems to have fizzled out.
The last week or so has been very profitable for clients who have ridden the move higher. However, we are now near the 20% rise from the 12 year lows set earlier this month, which is what we’ve seen the markets doing repeatedly in the last six months.
Clients remain confident that the rally will continue having dipped into the fall last night and holding long positions.
Spread Betting on Indices, 25 Mar 2009
Global indices have seen a little profit taking following the recent sharp rallies. On Wall Street, up to Monday, the Dow Jones had seen its sharpest two week rise since 1938 and from the lows earlier this month we’ve rallied 18%.
Since the aggressive bear market rally took hold in August 2008 we’ve seen three previous rallies of around 20% and so the bulls are being tested for their conviction at this moment in time. For the Dow and the FTSE we seem to have stumbled at the psychological levels of 8000 and 4000 respectively and at the moment this bear market rally (or beginning of a bull market?) seems to have come to an end.
This small retracement has attracted a few buyers and clients, who have on the whole done very well in the last two weeks from this rally higher. Some buyers are of the view that we’re going to push through resistance levels.
It’s amazing how in just a matter of two weeks confidence can take a shot in the arm and investors who were not all that long ago looking to sell into every rally seem to be buying the dips.
As Q1 2009 draws to a close it seems to be coinciding with a recovery in equities and history shows that shares are often bid higher towards the end of the quarter as fund managers rush to fill their portfolios with cheap stock.
April is also historically a positive month for equities and so investors could also be positioning themselves for a continuation in this move up. Of course many remain cautious and despite some claims that we’re at the beginning of a bull market, from a technical point of view the overall trend is still bearish.
As well as the near term resistance levels, market participants will watch closely to see whether the rally will continue into next month and replicate the usual historical length of time that bear market rallies last, which is thirty days. That would take the current move to around 22nd April.
Resistance in the S&P 500 stands at 838, in the Dow at 7980 and there are still calls from some technical ‘experts’ that this move higher represents a good selling opportunity and the US indices could again test the lows of a couple of weeks ago.
So what does this all mean for here and now? Well indices are having a respite this morning and yesterday saw relatively narrow ranges considering the sort of moves we’ve had in the last few sessions. Investors seem to be pondering the next move before putting anymore money on the table. The up and coming economic data could well play a part in how the rest of the week pans out.
The FTSE is dipping a little on the open as we currently sit at 3890 and the main news flow this morning is Legal & General’s announcement that they are cutting their dividend, which was pretty much to be expected and so the stock is only a little lower in early trade.
Spread Betting on Indices, 24 Mar 2009
Off to the races we go but the markets this morning seem to be almost unbelieving with the FTSE 100 only managing a 15 point move higher having been called around 50 up in pre-market activity.
The UK senior index is now 500 points above the lows of a couple of weeks ago. It must be said that the rally from the base this time looks a bit more stable (famous last words). The majority of the move being a steady grind rather than quick shifts higher which defined previous dead cat bounces.
The nagging worry is that this looks remarkably like the big rally in March/April/May last year. Having said that, last year’s rally culminated in a full 1000 points to the upside by its end so. If this does turn out to be a carbon copy, it is not too concerning just yet.
The FTSE has now broken the three month trend line at approximately 3930 and the next target for the bulls is the medium term resistance at 4075 (but of course there is the psychological 4000 level to breech first).
On the plus side the DAX 30, Dow and S&P have all broken longer term down trends and it must be hoped that the weight of these three will influence the FTSE more than the FTSE will influence them.
The recent poor performance of the London index versus other world exchanges is slightly surprising given the weakness of the Pound which. Given the preponderance of non-UK earnings in the 100 index, a weak Pound might give hope that it should be outperforming.
Technically markets hate to open gaps in charts and the action yesterday in the FTSE was a classic example of this. The market opened creating a 30 point gap between the high on Friday and then motored on up to 3925 before sellers took us all the way down to neatly close the aforementioned break at 3850 before (once again) storming up to 3950 at the close.
Spread Betting on Indices, 23 Mar 2009
The FTSE 100 is trading 60 points higher in early action but this must be compared to the closing call on Friday night for 50 lower. Punters will be very pleased as most went into the weekend suffering only to wake up today sitting on a nice little earner.
There will no doubt be an initial period of profit taking but the markets do look to have the bit between their teeth. As mentioned last week, very bad news is not having its usual effect and it is in this environment where markets can finally attempt to (if not build) at least pause for breathe.
Price Update:
The FTSE 100 closed last week up 89.2 points at 3842.9 (up 2.38%)
Wall St (Dow) closed last week up 54.4 points at 7278.38 (up 0.75%)
The Nasdaq closed last week up 25.77 points at 1457.27 (up 1.8%)
The S&P 500 closed last week up 11.99 points at 768.54 (up 1.58%)
The DAX closed last week up 115.14 points at 4068.74 (up 2.91%)
The Nikkei closed last week up 376.68 points at 7945.96 (up 4.98%)
The Hang Seng hit the buffers big time last night with a 2.5% drop of 326 points which will weigh on sentiment at the open. The FTSE is called 30 lower at around 3790 at the moment which is pretty much the same call as late yesterday evening. The renewed weakness in the indices is causing fears in other instruments.
The FTSE 100, at just under the 3800 mark, has given back some of the recent rally but in truth it seems to be quite a struggle for the sellers at the moment to make a huge impression.
Rallies of the last six to ten months have swiftly turned tail into renewed lows. That means investors will want to see a few days of stability as some confirmation as to whether we have hit some sort of low (especially on a Friday). If confidence drains away in today’s sessions then the outlook may well return to the deep freeze section.
The Dow Jones and S&P have also retreated from the spike highs of yesterday and Wednesday but have remained well in touch with those highs. Both are still well above the closing levels of last week which itself was well up on the previous week. To put this in context, if we close in the Dow above 7240 this evening, it will represent the first ‘two weeks in succession’ rallies since last April.
Spread Betting on Indices, 19 Mar 2009
Markets reacted violently to the announcement of some $300bn bond purchases by the US Treasury at around 1800 UK time with the Dow rallying 200 points.
Even by the standards of the last 18 months yesterdays evening session was spectacular.
For all of the big moves in the Dow and S&P yesterday the other major indices seem quite unenthusiastic with the FTSE called at 3845 in early trade just 40 pips up on yesterdays close and still 70 points below the highs of yesterday morning.
Our spread betting clients continue to oppose major directional moves so they will be hoping for pull backs from the recent rally after taking profits in yesterday’s chaos and reversing out. To be honest the normal rules over running profits and cutting losses seem to be out the window these days as we trade and re-trade over the same old ranges day after day.
The Dow and S&P both managed to get above medium term resistance and are remaining above them, albeit rather uncomfortably. The Nikkei managed to break its downward spiral back on the 10th.
The problem here is that the FTSE, CAC and DAX are still very much on the back foot and remain in negative territory. If the FTSE can close above 3960 or the Dax above 4210 then the majority will be at least above the, seemingly, never ending downward trend.
Spread Betting on Indices, 18 Mar 2009
The continued strength in the markets since the start of last week is finally starting to pressure the technical down trends (we only had to rally 1000 points in the Dow to get here). Medium term resistance in the Dow Jones is at around 7425, which we are just below. In the S&P 500 is at around 772, which we are just above.
The FTSE 100 is looking at the 3900 level on the open an expected rally of around 40 points. I must say that I was not expecting to say that quite so soon.
One of my cleverer dealers stated (a long time ago) that he would not be buying the FTSE until it fell below 3600 for various reasons. We did hit a low of 3450 two weeks ago but his target is currently looking quite good.
With the return to a more positive outlook in the equity markets we might now start to analyse returns rather more closely. Yield on stocks makes a mockery of cash and Gilt returns even if you price in substantial dividend cuts in some quarters. That is unless you believe, in the end, of all things, there must at some point be a substantial corrective move in one of the variables. In the long term either Gilts or Dividends will have to fall sharply or Equities will have to rally.
Spread Betting on Indices, 17 Mar 2009
The FTSE has opened some 40 points off this morning in response to the late sell off in the US when buyers lost their nerve at the highs as we entered the last hour of trading.
This is slightly disappointing but confirmed the resistance at 772 in the S&P 500. On the candlestick charts the bearish hammer formation to yesterday’s price action will be weighing on technical’s analysis and bulls should be wary of getting too impatient.
A close above 772 would be a good signal but until this happens we are still in a bear market. The high yesterday at 774 was also the medium term trend line resistance level which, now it has held, has been confirmed.
Bears remain in control but dealers are advised to watch for a break out as any move to the upside could be very violent indeed.
Spread Betting on Indices, 16 Mar 2009
Europeans are coming in on the buy side as hopes over some reasonable policy response continue to grow and the FTSE 100 is called at over 3800 up 60 pips at 3815 in pre-market activity.
3800 in the FTSE proved something of a solid support on the way down with repeated attempts at a break failing to make headway (until the decisive move just a few weeks ago on the 2nd March). We must beware the same thing happening on the way back up.
Longs will be keen to take any profits they can and we may well run into selling pressure on the open this morning. Nevertheless shorts should be few and far between at the moment. If the rallies across the Far East are replicated in Europe we may have some further impetus for the buy side.
Price Update:
The FTSE 100 closed last week up 223 points at 3753.7 (up 6.31%)
Wall St (Dow) closed last week up 597.04 points at 7223.98 (up 9.01%)
The Nasdaq closed last week up 137.65 points at 1431.5 (up 10.64%)
The S&P 500 closed last week up 73.17 points at 756.55 (up 10.71%)
The DAX closed last week up 287.19 points at 3953.6 (up 7.83%)
The Nikkei closed last week up 396.18 points at 7569.28 (up 5.52%)
Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Indices Spread Trading March 2009' by DB, updated 27-Mar-09
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Where to find free Indices Prices plus updated Indices news as well as your top Indices questions answered....read article. Selling the FTSE 100, updated 12-Dec-08
Q) Where can I Trade for Free on FTSE 100? Q) How to Spread Bet on FTSE 100? Q) Where can I find Free Live Prices on FTSE 100?...The Answers...read article. Financial Spread Bet on Wall Street, updated 11-Dec-08
Q) Where can I Trade for Free on Wall Street? Q) How to Spread Bet on Wall Street? Q) Where can I find Free Live Prices on Wall Street? The Answers...read article. Spread Bet on Stock Market Indices, updated 01-Dec-08
To spread bet on stock market indices you do so in the same way as other spreads bets. A number of spread betting firms offer both a daily and futures Index market...read article. How to Spread Bet Stock Market Indices, updated 23-Feb-10
How to Spread Bet on Indices - an introduction to stock market betting. If you are looking for FTSE, Dow Jones, DAX or another major market like the NASDAQ and Nikkei, you're on the right website...read article.
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and you may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
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