Another day another decline and 4000 is looming. Yesterday we recorded the longest losing streak since 2004 as the news flow descends into complete calamity and new concerns arise about the stability of banks around the globe.
Today marks the lifting of the ban on short selling UK financial stocks and the press, who’ve being crying out for something else to report as opposed to the usual bleak news, are covering the headlines with it.
So this morning we were calling the FTSE to open 60 points to the better at 4180 but in early that’s only 50 as we’re trading at 4170 at the time of writing.
Spread Betting on Indices, 15 Jan 2009
The FTSE has given up the 4400 level quite spectacularly and we even plunged through 4200 which was supposed to lend us some support according to the technical analysts.
This move shows just how half hearted the brief rally was in the run up to Christmas and beginning of 2009, especially since that move higher was on such thin volume. We're still in a bear market whether anyone likes it or not and the bounce from the November 2008 lows was 30 days in total, which happens to be the average length of time that bear market rallies last.
So technically the bears are still in control and from a fundamental standpoint the hot air coming from our politicians seems to be just that and the market doesn't like it. Many of the packages that the government is throwing at the private sector are just increasing the mountains of debt. It's all very well guaranteeing loans but the businesses that take them will have to repay them and most likely at unfavourable rates.
Interestingly, looking at the charts it would seem that the majority of the long red bars (so big falls on the day) have been followed by a big green bar (a large rise) the next day. But to break the bear market trend we need a lot of big green days and actually push on through 5000 to start mentioning anything such thing as the new bull trend.
Unfortunately, the damage that has been done and the speed with which it has unfolded means that the recovery will take a great deal longer than normal and a test of the FTSE 100’s all time highs that run out of steam 18 months ago could be confined to the history books.
Today we’re calling the FTSE 100 spread betting market to open in the red again, down 20 points at 4160. The main focus of the day will be the ECB’s rate decision at 12h45 London time where we’re expecting to see a cut of their benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 2.00%. Still a favourable rate over the UK’s sitting at 1.00% but the pressures of the economic outlook could force them to take more drastic action further down the line.
Spread Betting on Indices, 14 Jan 2009
Well 2009’s rally was brief. We are now back where we started the year. It seems a great deal of hype was built up by many saying that we would see a strong start by equity prices in the New Year.
It’s back to reality with a bump I’m afraid and whilst we did start 2009 will bullish intentions it didn’t take long for the market to give up its gains. Technically the 4400 level that was given up is also a weak sign but we did recover a little towards the end of yesterday’s session which gives bulls a degree of hope.
If 4400 doesn’t hold up then the next level of support is seen around 4200. On average bear market rallies last about 30 days and the 6th of January was the 30th trading day since the bounce off the November 2008 low so there are a few things indicating this recent move higher may have run out of steam.
We’re calling the FTSE to open just 15 points in the black after a sideways move in the US and Asia overnight and this is despite some dire news for bank heavyweight HSBC taking a dive after Morgan Stanley have slashed their earnings estimates and price target for the stock.
Spread Betting on Indices, 13 Jan 2009
The sellers remain in control of the FTSE 100 at the moment with our call coming in at 30 points lower from last night’s close to open around 4394.
Spread Betting on Indices, 12 Jan 2009
Price Update
The FTSE 100 closed last week down -113.3 points at 4448.5 (down -2.48%)
Wall St (Dow) closed last week down -435.51 points at 8599.18 (down -4.82%)
The Nasdaq closed last week down -60.62 points at 1571.59 (down -3.71%)
The S&P 500 closed last week down -41.45 points at 890.35 (down -4.45%)
The DAX closed last week down -189.18 points at 4783.89 (down -3.8%)
The Nikkei closed last week down -22.76 points at 8836.8 (down -0.26%)
This morning the FTSE 100 is a little undecided, as were US and Asian markets overnight and we are hovering around the 4500 level. There is still a huge degree of nervousness from the way indices have commenced 2009 as they are near where they started the year.
Of course it is early days however the early attempts to push higher have been reversed which is not a great sign. Investors will be hoping for some glimmer of hope from today’s NFP number so things will probably remain quiet until then.
Spread Betting on Indices, 8 Jan 2009
The FTSE is lower this morning having retraced some 4% since the recent highs hit on Tuesday. Bulls could see this as a buying opportunity but people will be sitting on the sidelines until the Interest Rate decision is out of the way. There’s also some important EU data out at 10h00 with consumer confidence, GDP and unemployment are hitting the wires at the same time.
Spread Betting on Indices, 7 Jan 2009
Equities continue their march higher with the FTSE posting their fifth daily gain in a row. We’ve now put on 425 points or 10% since the close on Christmas Eve and last night’s close above 4600 was a good sign for the bulls.
The important thing to note though is that despite the broader index’s rise some stocks have performed spectacularly poorly and one in particular is Lloyds shares who were one of the biggest fallers yesterday dropping over 5%.
As the index has rallied you would expect it to be driven largely by the good old blue chips, but since this has not been the case it makes stock picking all the more important. Time and time again we hear comments such as “picking your stocks carefully will be of paramount importance throughout 2009” and at the moment you can see why. Whilst there maybe many a bargain out there at the moment, investors should tread carefully and look for companies with solid balance sheets if they want to buy some shares.
Further indications of light at the end of the tunnel are how some stocks are moving in a counter intuitive way. Take the retailers for example yesterday who have had a dire last few months and many of them look to be staring down the barrel, but some posted big gains in the session.
So this morning sees a little froth being taken of the top with the FTSE down a meagre 20 points but holding onto the 4600 level at the moment. Miners, who have contributed to much of the last few days rises are the ones suffering from the selling this morning and interestingly the more defensive sectors are also leading the decline with utilities being badly hit.
Spread Betting on Indices, 6 Jan 2009
The FTSE this morning is proving remarkably resilient however it is now a little lower than our original calls of around 4600.
The papers could not be filled with more bad news with firm after firm going to the wall and no indications of the situation improving.
It seems illogical that the market has put on nearly 10% in the last week and is not plummeting to new depths. It seems that there is an appetite for equities at the moment as investors look to put their money at least somewhere rather than sitting in cash earning a meagre 1% (which the rate for cash deposits most certainly will be after Thursday’s interest rate announcement).
However, now comes the risk warning. Whilst last year’s 30% decline in equities may look to many to be an absolute bargain the risk is that the market has not priced in worse things to come.
The markets have commenced this week on what can be described as a cautious footing since reaching 4600 last Friday. The momentum from the few days over the festive period looks like it has come to a slight standstill.
Spread Betting on Indices, 5 Jan 2009
The FTSE 100 closed last week up 345.2 points at 4561.8 (up 8.19%)
Wall St (Dow) closed last week up 566.21 points at 9034.69 (up 6.69%)
The Nasdaq closed last week up 107.31 points at 1632.21 (up 7.04%)
The S&P 500 closed last week up 67.93 points at 931.8 (up 7.86%)
The DAX closed last week up 343.69 points at 4973.07 (up 7.42%)
The Nikkei closed last week up 342.46 points at 8859.56 (up 4.02%)
Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Indices Spread Trading January 2009' by DB, updated 16-Jan-09
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