Weakness throughout the late afternoon and evening sessions weighed heavily on the markets yesterday after a bright start and the FTSE 100 is now back in the mid 3800’s once again.
This being Friday traders will have to decide whether the market is short and want to cover before the weekend or long and not willing to risk further bad news in the weekend press.
With last nights sell off fresh in the minds of dealers the initial impetus may be to the later but in truth there seems to be solid support between 3750 and 3850.
Below that there is still the twin bottoms of October and November at around 3675 from which we staged two 1000 point rallies to the ‘roughly exact same’ point up at 4685. Yes we have had rallies and these were humdingers representing over 27% from tip to toe.
Clients are very wary but do not seem to want to miss out if a similar move develops from here.
Spread Betting on Indices, 26 Feb 2009
The American market yet again had one of its schizophrenic sessions rallying strongly towards the close only to suffer a 180 point fall in the last half hour. It is this inability to hold onto even small bull moves which is weighing heavily on investor sentiment (on top of everything else of course).
We really need to hold firm for a few weeks to get out of this perpetual spiral lower. I know it sounds trite but the markets need to just end the bear move rather than focus on when the next bull phase will begin.
Today sees strength in the FTSE and Dax with markets trading above 3900 for both. Up a similar 50 points or so. The weakness in the German market is starting to look very ominous as it continues to perform badly versus other majors.
At the turn of the year the Senior German index was trading some 500 points above the FTSE, a fact we pointed out a few days ago, it is now just below it. The unprecedented 46% fall in exports from Japan has spooked investors in Germany as fears mount of a similar (though obviously not so large) effect for them.
It is difficult to get a complete handle on numbers but in these straightened times it does not take much imagination to see that sales of BMWs, Mercedes, Audis and Porches have probably taken a pummelling. Retail sales have indicated that in the UK, at least, sales of ‘high end’ products have slumped and Germany prides itself (quite rightly) on not just the fact of its manufacturing strength but on the quality of that production.
If you are looking for signs of a turn around there are a few to be had as the FTSE index continually bounces off the 3800 level (or thereabouts). Our clients as mentioned yesterday continue to buy these levels and seem quite comfortable with the daily twists and turns.
Spread Betting on Indices, 25 Feb 2009
Europe remained in the doldrums yesterday but the US seemed to decide that enough was enough for the time being and managed a small rally after the European close to give some relief.
Although, to be fair, even though the Dow managed a 200 point rise it is still below the close on Friday and the lows of last autumn. The fact that the Dow hit ‘almost exactly’ the 50% fall in prices on Monday at 7105 (down from the high of 14198 in October 07) probably also helped the bounce.
Our Financial Spreads have been quick to sell into this move up and the perception from my dealers is that they are expecting worse to come. This is not an unreasonable belief if you peruse the papers and newswires which seem to be filled with unremitting gloom.
This morning sees the FTSE called 60 points higher on the back of the move in the US last night and we are likely to get an extension move as ‘bottom pickers’ wonder if we are at the lows and try to pick up stock. The fear for everyone is that this will prove to be just one more false dawn and buyers will be left blowing on burnt fingers once again.
On the plus side the banking sector seems to have hit something of a bottom as the falls over the last week or so have not seen any further deterioration in their values. Barclays continues to oscillate around the 100p level and Lloyds and RBS at around 55p and 22p respectively although HSBC now seems to be under the cosh.
The S&P 500 index bounced sharply from the 740.5 November 21st nadir level only managing 742 on Monday and 746 yesterday. Like the FTSE, the S&P is still above Autumn lows. It looks like Traders did not seem to have the power, just yet, to send us into new territory.
Spread Betting on Indices, 24 Feb 2009
Seven losing days on the trot is not unique but it is certainly unusual and with the FTSE called some 35 points off on the open (the call was 70 points late last night) the odds are on another poor performance today as well. There are always bear squeezes in markets but the slow drip, drip of lower prices does not seem to indicate heavy short position building just investors finally giving up the ghost.
So the European markets are starting on the back foot this morning with the Dax and FTSE called lower once again. The Dax in particular is showing extreme weakness with the index down below the lows of October and November when the 4000 level gave strong support. The index has now blasted through here and is at 3900 to start.
The spread between the FTSE and the DAX 30 has narrowed from 450 at the start of the year to the current 80 to 85 points as the banking sector (which has a higher weighting in the German Index) pulls it down. Traders should be wary of ‘buying because it looks cheap’. By all means go-long if a bounce looks to be building but in the current sentiment you should look for a quick exit if things go wrong.
Both the US indices are now in new territory and looking to break under the 12 year lows from 1997. I am reliably informed that the Dow has now broken the 100 year moving average which is interesting but not exactly helpful concerning the move over the next day or so.
Spread Betting on Indices, 23 Feb 2009
Clients will be pleased as they open accounts this morning as the markets look to be opening well to the upside after the near collapse during the US late session on Friday.
The FTSE hit 3840 in after hours trading but is now opening more than 100 points above this level at around 3950. Have we rejected the lows? Time, of course, will tell but it does look as though moves to the downside are running into treacle at the moment.
Last week saw five down days in a row culminating in a break of the solid 3985 support on Friday but the follow through remains elusive and the absolutely crucial November lows are still holding firm in the DAX 30, S&P 500 and FTSE 100 The economic news continues to be grim but most of the ‘at risk’ corporates have now been sold down so far that they are becoming negligible components of the various indices.
Price Update:
The FTSE 100 closed last week down -300.5 points at 3889.1 (down -7.17%)
Wall St (Dow) closed last week down -484.74 points at 7365.67 (down -6.17%)
The Nasdaq closed last week down -93.13 points at 1441.23 (down -6.07%)
The S&P 500 closed last week down -56.79 points at 770.05 (down -6.87%)
The DAX closed last week down -398.73 points at 4014.66 (down -9.03%)
The Nikkei closed last week down -363.02 points at 7416.38 (down -4.67%)
Things are definitely starting to look very grim. Virtually every senior index market has slipped under major support levels and the only chink of light seems to be that there is no solid follow through.
The Dow is now slipping below the low on the Futures last November (at a cash equivalent of 7400) and we are now quoting the US market to open at around 7395.
With the value of just about every asset on the planet falling ever lower security against debt is getting very stretched and we are risking an even more serious implosion as lenders demand ever more protection against existing loans let alone issuing more.
Spread Betting on Indices, 19 Feb 2009
The 7500 level in the Dow is considered to be major. The index briefly dipped below it yesterday in a session that commenced with the bears firmly in control. However, a small bounce off the lows meant we are now sitting gingerly above 7500
The S&P is already considered to have breached its major support of 800 and some are calling for 2008’s low to be taken out around 750. #
The FTSE 100 is also trying its best to hold onto 4000 but having been below it on a couple of occasions this week the bears look to be in control for the time being.
Considering the historic low valuations of many stocks the temptation for investors to buy cheap is considerable, on the other hand, technically things look like they could get cheaper.
Spread betting clients remain bullish on the whole believing that we’re at the bottom but it’s difficult to get enthusiastic about the stock market at the moment.
Bottoms in stock markets are usually formed by a ‘major’ event which everyone looks back on a year later and says “gosh, why didn’t I buy then when it was so obvious that the bottom had been made following such or such an event”. Many bulls have been expecting Obama’s major bailout plan to be such an event.
The last bull-run commenced on the eve of the Iraq war in 2003 – a major event in anyone’s book, although you wouldn’t normally associate the commencement of a war as a signal to buy equities. The market’s muted response would indicate that investors are still waiting for something.
The FTSE has recorded six declines in the last seven trading sessions, losing 7% in that time and bringing the total loss so far in 2009 to 10%. With so little in the way of economic data today there are no real expectations for a particularly volatile session in the indices, certainly this morning anyway.
Spread Betting on Indices, 18 Feb 2009
Markets looked over the abyss yesterday but have pulled back just marginally to leave traders wondering where next.
In a meeting last night with an analyst I was feeling reasonably confident that the recent falls were containable and that they were merely a reaction to fears over the stimulus package. If no follow through was seen that might indicate that support built over the last four or five months was unlikely to give way.
Unfortunately his apocalyptic scenario left me rather breathless. The Dow is apparently only just above the 100 year (ie its entire existence) support level and if we close below 7500, or thereabouts, then the financial stability of the West might be imperilled. Blood on the streets and all that.
Whilst I might be willing to accept that the level might be important, trying to equate the financial well being of the United States to a simple line on a graph is less easy. Let alone the fate of the global economy being fought out on a boring Tuesday in February.
The Dax, S&P and Dow are all now below serious chart levels and it seems that only the FTSE, even though falling 100 points in the session, still had enough in it to remain above the critical 3985 support. The early call this morning is for a small bounce across the Major indices with the FTSE 100 indicated at 4065 (up 30) the Dax at 4245 and the Dow at around 7600.
Spread Betting on Indices, 17 Feb 2009
Early morning action in the Dow and S&P is very worrying indeed. As commentated yesterday the S&P has good support at 815, 8808 and 800 to 802. Unfortunately without any help from the Americans (who were on holiday yesterday) the rolling S&P market has managed to slump almost 20 points and is now at 807.0-807.4, lower than the worst point on Thursday.
The FTSE is also looking a tad grim at around 4110 just above major support and the DAX, also perching above a small abyss, at 4315 is similarly right above a significant point. The Dow is still below the major 7850 support at 7680 but remains the only one of the big indices to have broken lower. If the Dax, FTSE and S&P can hold at these levels then the prospects for a bounce may grow stronger but it would be a brave investor to commit too much to a rally at this time.
For all the negative news at this time markets remain within trading ranges. Until a definite break out one way or the other is confirmed then clients playing the lows and highs of the current chart patterns are doing well.
There is not a great deal of news out today with no major corporate or economic data expected. It would normally be considered as a good day for a long lunch. Unfortunately for the hard pressed restaurants across the City it is unlikely that many will be leaving their dealing screens anytime soon.
Spread Betting on Indices, 16 Feb 2009
Dealers were looking quite comfortable after the solid bounce on Thursday defeated the break of major support in the Dow and the sky definitely seemed a bit bluer.
Chartists are now anxiously watching to see if the States can recover the 7850 level once again, we closed bang on it at 21.00 on Friday but are now indicating 7785 in pre-market action.
On the plus side the FTSE is remaining solidly above the 4100 to 4150 region with no real attempts to challenge its support and the S&P is still above trendline support. For the senior US index there are three supports at 815, 808 and 800/802 all of which are reasonably strong. A break of these may indicate a renewed downturn but until this actually happens there is hope for a rebound once again.
Price Update:
The FTSE 100 closed last week down -102.3 points at 4189.6 (down -2.38%)
Wall St (Dow) closed last week down -430.18 points at 7850.41 (down -5.2%)
The Nasdaq closed last week down -57.35 points at 1534.36 (down -3.6%)
The S&P 500 closed last week down -41.96 points at 826.84 (down -4.83%)
The DAX closed last week down -231.24 points at 4413.39 (down -4.98%)
The Nikkei closed last week down -297.22 points at 7779.4 (down -3.68%)
Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Indices Spread Trading February 2009' by DB, updated 27-Feb-09
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Where to find free Indices Platforms plus updated Indices trading news as well as the most popular Indices queries answered....read article. Indices Software, updated 26-Oct-07
Where to find free Indices Software information plus updated Indices trading news as well as the most popular Indices queries answered....read article. Indices Prices, updated 04-Feb-08
Where to find free Indices Prices plus updated Indices news as well as your top Indices questions answered....read article. Selling the FTSE 100, updated 12-Dec-08
Q) Where can I Trade for Free on FTSE 100? Q) How to Spread Bet on FTSE 100? Q) Where can I find Free Live Prices on FTSE 100?...The Answers...read article. Financial Spread Bet on Wall Street, updated 11-Dec-08
Q) Where can I Trade for Free on Wall Street? Q) How to Spread Bet on Wall Street? Q) Where can I find Free Live Prices on Wall Street? The Answers...read article. Spread Bet on Stock Market Indices, updated 01-Dec-08
To spread bet on stock market indices you do so in the same way as other spreads bets. A number of spread betting firms offer both a daily and futures Index market...read article. How to Spread Bet Stock Market Indices, updated 23-Feb-10
How to Spread Bet on Indices - an introduction to stock market betting. If you are looking for FTSE, Dow Jones, DAX or another major market like the NASDAQ and Nikkei, you're on the right website...read article.
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and you may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
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