The entire closing price range for the FTSE 100 in April is covered by a very small blanket of just under 200 points (March was 550, Feb 800 and Jan 650). The one day spike in volatility levels on the 20th April has been snuffed out with almost arrogant ease and we are settling in for another session of going over the same old ground.
We open this morning at 4040 twenty points up and already the sellers are sharpening their orders to get out. Anyone spread betting would seldom have had such a favourable market situation and many have been taken good advantage of the constrained ranges to make money on the same price moves day after day.
We are seeing renewed selling this morning from clients watching the 4050/4060 resistance and at the moment this is holding well. At some point there will be a painful spike through a support or resistance level but today does not seem to be a likely example (famous last words).
There is little news today and after such a dull week, most traders are probably looking for and early bath.
Spread Betting on Indices, 23 Apr 2009
So far in April we are squeezing out a very small gain as markets continue to oscillate without making any significant moves either to the upside or downside.
The lack of any break outs has allowed clients to trade in and out of markets continually and profitably.
When looking at the current situation at face value it isn’t surprising that we see all the financial markets just drifting sideways. Equities have made good ground since the beginning of March and investors are simply questioning the validity of the recent move higher.
This morning retailers are propping the market up with some good news from Debenhams. It was not long ago that some people were predicting that the department store might be the next big casualty of the high street.
Today’s results and their share price move certainly looks like a green shoot. The stock is not going to reward shareholders with a dividend for the time being, but with the share price near quadrupling so far this year who needs a dividend?
As a result we see retailers blessing the FTSE’s leader board with M&S and Next making good ground. The retail sector has certainly been attracting buyers having risen 50% since December last year, so maybe this is the signal that the bad times are over.
Spread Betting on Indices, 22 Apr 2009
While individual stocks are winging all over the place the net effect on the markets is muted and the fear for many broking houses will be that the current market conditions continue through the year.
Historically this inertia is unusual and is normally ended by a big break in one direction or the other and while this will remain (probably) the eventual outcome it has to be admitted that it is difficult to see any such event happening in the short term.
The FTSE 100 is stuck under 4100 the S&P under 870 the DAX 4675, Sterling between $1.4450 to $1.5000, Yen under ¥100.00, Gold under $890 to $900 and Brent Oil between $48 and $54 per barrel.
The FTSE opened unchanged at around 3980 but has seen a steady drip drip of selling on the off and we have slipped back to 3965 as I write. This is very much middle of the range and interest will probably not be pricked until we approach 3875 or 4030.
The Dow and S&P have slipped around 90 pips since the close last night as fears over the banking sector continue to swirl. The US indices have had a slow curve higher since the lows of early March but this is looking to be getting ready for some sharp action either up or down.
The 8000 level in the Dow seems to have an almost magnetic attraction. Since October last year every move seems to have been an attempt to break away from it only for the irresistible gravity of the number acting to pull us back. For the FTSE the same could be said for 4000 and for the S&P 850.0.
Spread Betting on Indices, 21 Apr 2009
The failure of the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and DAX 30 to breach the resistance levels on Friday / Monday morning was the initial trigger for the weakness. The ensuing falls were accelerated by BoA’s worse than forecast losses and a strong feeling that the low volume rally over the two week Easter period was built more on hope than expectation.
Clients made off like bandits in the drop holding onto shorts (mentioned yesterday) all the way to the bottom and then managing to get long right on the turn. The favourite came in once again much to the bookies woe.
While the market is fragile the fact is that neither the fall yesterday nor the rally that preceded it are particularly indicative of longer term prospects.
We are likely to see a continued oscillation around current levels (maybe a couple of hundred lower and a couple of hundred higher) through the medium term. Valuations will remain under pressure as we await evidence of a ‘bottoming out’ of the current economic weakness but buyers will, conversely, continue to pick up stock in anticipation of better times to come.
With the budget out tomorrow there will probably be a slew of comment on the personal level but equity markets have come to almost disregard the annual bun fight in recent years.
Spread Betting on Indices, 20 Apr 2009
Dealing continues to be trader friendly with few (actually no) break outs in any of the major indices, FX or commodities markets.
The attempt to the upside in the FTSE , Dax and S&P has run into the brick wall that is the 4125, 4700 and 875 levels respectively. These points all reflect previous failed moves to the upside this year. Our spread betting clients took the opportunity, late in Friday’s session, to sell into the highs and are looking comfortable at the moment.
The markets are opening very quietly this morning with the FTSE unchanged at around the 4090 level having already had a go at a move lower in very early action but with the banks continuing to look better value there is presumably appetite for another attempt to the upside. Whether it succeeds or not is another matter.
Price Update:
The FTSE 100 closed last week up 109.1 points at 4092.8 (up 2.74%)
Wall St (Dow) closed last week up 47.95 points at 8131.33 (up 0.59%)
The Nasdaq closed last week up 20.53 points at 1673.07 (up 1.24%)
The S&P 500 closed last week up 13.04 points at 869.6 (up 1.52%)
The DAX closed last week up 185.72 points at 4676.84 (up 4.14%)
The Nikkei closed last week down -56.53 points at 8907.58 (down -0.63%)
The FTSE and DAX 30 have made a valiant effort over the last few trading sessions to break into new ground but it must be admitted that it has been pretty tough going.
Yesterday’s session was a slow grind higher throughout the day after an initial move lower (for some obscure reason) threatened to spoil the tea party. We are now up at around 4065 in the FTSE and 4620 in the Dax.
The German index is now back at levels not seen since early Feb and the FTSE might be looking at beating the last aborted rally of earlier this month. For all of the sound and fury in the political arena and the fact that there is a budget next week the fact remains that trading is very restricted for the indices. The FTSE 100 Index has been stuck between 3850 and 4100 for most of this month.
It would be a leap of faith now to suppose that everything is rosy in the garden and we can look forward to a big rally in the coming months. Punters continue to disbelieve any move in either direction. We have seen extensive selling all through last nights US rally and in early action this morning. In truth it is difficult to argue with this thinking as each piece of economic news seems to cancel out the last leaving investors in a Limbo of uncertainty.
Spread Betting on Indices, 16 Apr 2009
Our comment on clients buying below 3970 and selling above 4010 paid out on three separate moves through the session and punters continue to do well in the constrained trading ranges that we are currently experiencing. As with our comment there also still seems to be no appetite to sell under 3940 (yesterdays low 3939). It must also be admitted that we do appear to run out of puff quite quickly as well whenever we reach 4020 to 4040.
Dealers will be eyeing a constricting wedge formed by the long term down trend from last May and the more recent rally from the lows in March. The resistance is at 4110 and support at 3945 (up from 3940 yesterday). Whichever of these barriers is broken first will probably give us the next directional move. However we will probably require some significant piece of news to break out.
Today’s activity is starting on the weak side after the rally in the US last night. The FTSE 100 spread betting market is now quoted at around 3980. That is 30 or so points off from the yesterday’s futures close but still 10 points up from the index close at 16.30. Spread bettors have been selling all morning and are sitting on solid positions for the early morning session.
Spread Betting on Indices, 15 Apr 2009
Markets seem undecided today as to whether to follow the US lower after the Dow Jones and the S&P closed near the bottom last night and then traded even lower in early action in the small hours.
The FTSE 100 remains wedded to the 4000 level with prices oscillating around this point and our spread betting account holders are making hay repeatedly buying in the 3970’s or lower and selling around 4010 or higher.
While the attempts to move higher are being frustrated it does appear that there is no real appetite for sellers to try to force the FTSE below 3940 and the daily trading ranges are becoming ever smaller as some sanity continues to trickle into the financial arena.
With no real impetus to the downside the focus may well begin to swing to the up once again through today’s session. The fact is that bad news is starting to be discounted and traders are looking at every release through rose tinted glasses.
The US numbers yesterday were truly awful and yet all we got was a 140 point fall on the Dow. A few months ago they would have triggered a 300 to 400 point reverse.
We are probably not out of the muck just yet as the current bounce relies on the perception that the economic numbers have stopped accelerating to the down side and are merely now ‘bad’.
Spread Betting on Indices, 14 Apr 2009
Not much to go on over the long bank holiday and this is backed up by the opening calls on the FTSE 100 and DAX 30 this morning.
The FTSE is expected to open around 5 points higher and the DAX 10 lower as the US markets oscillate around the 7950 to 8100 range.
On the FTSE we really need confirmation that the recent move higher will not disappear in a puff of smoke but we also need some comfort that new resistance levels above 4100 will not constrain strength and that supports between 3950 and 3850 will hold under any renewed bear attack.
Spread Betting on Indices, 13 Apr 2009
Price Update:
The FTSE 100 closed last week down -46 points at 3983.7 (down -1.14%)
Wall St (Dow) closed last week up 65.79 points at 8083.38 (up 0.82%)
The Nasdaq closed last week up 30.67 points at 1652.54 (up 1.89%)
The S&P 500 closed last week up 14.06 points at 856.56 (up 1.67%)
The DAX closed last week up 106.13 points at 4491.12 (up 2.42%)
The Nikkei closed last week up 48.05 points at 8964.11 (up 0.54%)
Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Indices Spread Trading April 2009' by DB, updated 24-Apr-09
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