Markets look to be investigating the up side once again as numbers from the US continue to improve.
There is still a cautious feeling in most markets with the Dax and FTSE still pretty much in the middle of the recent range while the Dow and S&P both put in a very strong session.
Today sees the Non Farm Payroll data release at 13.30 and most traders will try to be flat before the dreaded moment. In reality figures such as these tend, in the first place, to be almost randomly better or worse than expected and then the reaction of the markets themselves often defies analysis. Many times a bad number has resulted in a rally and a good number a fall.
Aside from this event this afternoon dealers will be watching the FTSE for signs of a break above 5200. As mentioned earlier this week the FTSE is showing early signs of possibly forming a head and shoulders pattern and a move towards 5200 from 5000, where we were mid week, would be needed to form the second shoulder.
This morning we are calling the FTSE at 5145 in pre-market action about 20 up on yesterday’s close. As mentioned earlier the FTSE seems to be a bit nervy, being dragged kicking and screaming higher by the US markets.
This is slightly worrying in that if there is a slowdown in momentum in the US it may translate into weakness over on this side of the Pond.
We can see the same situation in the Nikkei where the big rally of the last couple of days out West has translated into virtually nothing in the Far East. Aside from this the highs yesterday in the FTSE peaked at almost exactly the support, turned resistance, level of 5160/5190 which dominated much of September and October
Spread Betting on Indices, 5 Nov 2009
The market just can’t seem to make its mind up at the moment and while last week provided some big moves so far this week we’ve oscillated between the 5000 and 5100 mark.
The FTSE is has recovered from its lows but is still apprehensive ahead of midday’s decision. While retailers continue to lead the way for the risers, banks and a few miners are dragging us lower.
Technically, we’re still below the 20 and 50 day moving average on the daily chart, so gains seem limited for the time being and it looks like we’ll need a major catalyst, perhaps tomorrow’s NFP, to give us the next leg higher.
Spread Betting on Indices, 4 Nov 2009
Well we got the 100 point fall yesterday but that was our lot as the markets then decided, as on the previous four sessions, that, actually we want to move back up again.
The phrase “whore’s draws” is starting to look apposite to describe the recent activity … up, down, up, down, up again.
This morning sees the FTSE called back up at 5070 and, with pre market action being very quiet indeed, we might, for the first time in a week or so, be looking at a more peaceful morning/early afternoon.
Yesterday’s comment indicating support at 4985 should have been a good level for buyers to use up some of their powder with the low at 4983.
If we want to make an early case for a ‘head and shoulders formation’ proponents will be looking at a move back up to close to 5200 over the next few weeks but with no power to break above this mark. If this happens, a big ‘IF’ to be sure, the chartists will be getting ever more bearish.
The markets look to be capped at around 5200/5300 for the moment but supported below 5000 as well. Traders might take fright once again if data continues to indicate a more restrained bounce from the downturn but we are now in the run in to the end of the year and, after regaining all the losses of the first three months and more, there is likely to be a trend from the investment funds to avoid dramatic allocations. It would not surprise me in the least if we ended the year within touching distance of 5100.
As with the FTSE, the Dow Jones is looking to have solid support as well with the 9680 level proving to be the lows on each of the last three sessions. 9830 is also a resistance level and with the market quoted at 9805 this morning we will be watching for any break out (or not as the case may be) to indicate that the bull move can continue.
Each of the pull backs over the last four months have been swiftly reversed and investors will be hoping that the same happens this time. 10100 looks to be a move too far for the time being, as with 5300 in the FTSE, but we will really want to see some further strength soon otherwise the fragile confidence built up over the last eight months might fail in the cold of winter.
Spread Betting on Indices, 3 Nov 2009
The FTSE is trading down at 5030 in early action and our clients continue to see any weakness as a buying opportunity. The lows yesterday were at around 5020 and punters seem confident at the moment that this will form a base this morning as well.
Support is also in evidence at just below 5000, at around 4985, and at 4965 but a break below this point will have the technical traders eying a return to 4775.
While we do not see a dramatic bear market developing it must be noted that the upside above 5200 is looking a long way away just at the moment.
The Dax, as mentioned yesterday, looks to be in a really difficult space. Spread versus the FTSE has been between 500 and 600 points for much of the last six months but in the last week this has narrowed in to just 320, it was 400 yesterday morning.
While the FTSE managed a good rally from the open, the Dax spent nearly the whole day trying to hold its head above water. Our support mentioned yesterday at 5340 has now been tested twice, yesterday, from where it bounced, and right about now as I write. As stated our clients seem confident that the supports will hold with some quite aggressive buying going on in early action.
Spread Betting on Indices, 2 Nov 2009
The FTSE looks to be opening at around 5035 its closing level on Friday and if it manages this it would actually be a result as we were calling the market to be down at 4990 on the close of the US session.
Traders are very long and will be hoping for some respite after the US consumer confidence numbers made such a dent on investor confidence. The Treasury will be releasing the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) on Tuesday and we must hope that this data maintains its recent strength.
Much of the foundation of the recent rally has been built on the supposed prescience of this index and if it starts to slip economists might have to start rethinking their numbers.
The Dax remains under heavy pressure this morning having fallen some 10% from the highs in the last five or six sessions. It is now in danger of giving up the entire rally since July. There is good support between 5345 and 5380 but traders will be wary of getting too excited about any bounces while the current weakness continues.
Spread Betting on Indices, 1 Nov 2009
Indices Week-on-Week Price Update:
The FTSE 100 closed last week down -198 points at 5044.6 (down -3.78% w-o-w)
Wall St (Dow) closed last week down -259.45 points at 9712.73 (down -2.6% w-o-w)
The Nasdaq 100 closed last week down -109.36 points at 2045.11 (down -5.08% w-o-w)
The S&P 500 closed last week down -43.41 points at 1036.19 (down -4.02% w-o-w)
The CAC 40 closed last week down -200.55 points at 3607.69 (down -5.27% w-o-w)
The DAX 30 closed last week down -325.29 points at 5414.96 (down -5.67% w-o-w)
The Nikkei 225 closed last week down -248.25 points at 10034.74 (down -2.41% w-o-w)
The FTSE 100 has opened pretty much unchanged this morning after looking like putting on 20 points at the US close last night. We might now be in a situation of being stuck between the 5040 support mentioned yesterday and the 5165 resistance level where we failed at overnight (5165 was support on Wednesday).
Our Financial Spread clients had an absolutely great day yesterday as the bounce came to the aid of Wednesday’s pressurised buyers. However there is now a sense of ‘what next?’ and most traders have lightened positions considerably going into the weekend.
Lloyds have indicated that they will be issuing a deeply discounted rights issue and this has given the stock a bit of a fillip as investors, keen to get in on the cheap stock, have been buying.
This coupled with some more comforting clarity over the EC commissions deliberations on possibly breaking up Lloyds and RBS seems to have translated into a bit of a bear squeeze as shorts scramble to cover.
Equity support remains reasonably strong. However, with winter upon us and the natural contraction in activity this will entail, coupled with the beginning of the end of State fiscal injections, the upside looks difficult to chart.
As we discussed a few weeks ago, 5300 looks to be a difficult level in the current situation for the FTSE to break above. We really need some good growth news in both Europe and the UK to whet the appetite once again.
There is a bit of data due this afternoon from the US but after the excitement of yesterday and Wednesday we may have had our fun for the week.
Spread Betting on Indices, 29 Oct 2009
Our comment yesterday that the markets appeared to be finding it difficult to regain positive momentum came to fruition as profit taking became the order of the day.
As mentioned our clients were buying in to the early weakness and that remained the story of the whole session as traders continued to try to pick a bottom only to be bashed about as the markets tumbled.
The FTSE 100 ended the day 150 points lower with another 30 points taken off ‘after hours’ as the US markets also failed to regain the front foot. This made for the worst session in eight months for the markets - which is actually quite surprising. Given the big bear move from January to March, it was the third worst day this year.
Traders seem confident this morning that this fall was the shake-out they have been waiting for and we are seeing further buying across most of our quoted instruments.
It is very tempting to agree with this analysis but we must always beware the sucker rally as ‘bottom pickers’ attempt to create a support only to be squeezed out with a secondary tranche of weakness.
There is actually a good support level at 5040 going back to September’s price action as the price first acted as resistance and then as support. The only reason it was breached was due to the ‘October effect’ on the first day of this month and once the market had regained the level the reaction was an immediate move back up to the mid 5100’s.
Investors will be hoping that we remain above the 5040 mark at the close this afternoon. For the bears there are quite a few targets to aim for with 5000 being the most obvious. Longer term the rising trend lines from March give leeway for a much greater retracement to around 4700 but we would probably really need to see some ‘actively’ bad news for this to happen.
Spread Betting on Indices, 28 Oct 2009
Numbers are due out from GlaxoSmithKline at midday which should give a bit of a nudge to the FTSE. However BG Group’s data out early this morning has followed in the steps of BP yesterday with better than forecast results. Estimates for £444m profit were exceeded to the tune of £30m even though prices for LNG remained weak. The extreme price variations for gas over the last few years has prompted some movement away from the energy source just as its price has tumbled to very depressed levels. While Oil has recovered somewhat gas remains in the doldrums.
Commentators are rightly pointing out that the big weighting stocks in the FTSE are not particularly helpful in untangling the current state of the UK economy as they increasingly reflect the status of the non-domestic world economy. BAT, BG, Glaxo etc will probably continue to show better than expected results especially in sterling terms.
On a more positive note Carpetright also made a trading statement this morning showing same store sales up over 5% for the last qtr - although European sales down 9% might be a bit of a worry. This coupled with the CBI saying that retail sales were at a near 2 year high is giving some boost to hopes that the economy is not (yet) slipping into a double dip recession.
The FTSE is called some 10 points off at 5190 and just for the moment the usual ability of the index to shrug off any selling pressure is being tested.
For months now, two or three negative sessions has just about been our lot as far as the bears are concerned. Rather more pointedly, the markets immediate reaction to any weakness has been an immediate strong move up to new highs.
Looking at the Candlestick Charts we seem to always need a small sell off to trigger renewed buying. Punters have taken this on board and have been buying strongly in all our Indices at these levels.
Unfortunately there must also be that little word of caution. If we have another down day, especially if we close below 5165, then the upward momentum might well be seen to have run its course for the time being.
Spread Betting on Indices, 27 Oct 2009
Markets have shifted down to the bottom of the range once again after bank stocks took a real pummelling on yet more EU regulatory ponderings.
Unfortunately for regulators they really do not get the picture, aside from creating jobs for compliance, they have never created one percentage point of growth...in fact they are famed for doing the exact opposite. Now the dead hand of governance is looking to cut off the oil of finance as well.
In their desperation to appease uninformed public opinion they are risking, by delivering ever more stringent barriers to lending, future prosperity. Much as our politico’s might hate it, one of the major reasons that the West has had hegemony over the globe for the past few centuries has been because of its banking systems, not in spite of them.
The FTSE 100 is looking to open some 10 points to the good this morning at around the 5200 mark.
Traders who have just sat back selling above 5250 and buying below 5175 for the past three weeks have made a killing as we oscillate repeatedly between the two.
Dangerously we looked like breaking the medium term bull trend line in the FTSE yesterday but the late rally saw us regain the level. It is not exactly rocket science to say that 5165 is looking like good support and 5275 looking a bridge too far on the upside.
The Dow Jones also appears to have some misgivings about remaining a five figure number. 10,000+ has now been rejected three times in the last week or so. We start this morning at 9890, peacefully but uneasily pondering the continuation of the rally.
The S&P 500 and the Dow have the same bull trend line as the FTSE in sight but are still 100 points under at current prices - one of the reasons the FTSE could not follow through on the sell off. It is difficult for just one of the major western indices to make a significant move without the others following suit.
Spread Betting on Indices, 26 Oct 2009
This morning we are seeing little change from the official closes on Friday. That is mainly due to the good performance out East. On the other hand, traders seem unwilling to actually buy much up here and we are seeing little in the way of impetus on the open to get excited by.
Our Financial Spread clients remain long of equities, and seem happy to be so, but new position taking seems to be drying up.
This week we will see Q3 interims from both BP and Shell but in truth it is difficult to imagine two companies less attuned to the country that they are nominally quoted in.
Their producing base is, ever increasingly, global rather than North Sea and their product is priced in dollars. Oil has been, of course, lower over Q3 2009 than Q3 2008 but the next reporting period. However, Q4 2009, should have a more favourable comparator and with both companies cutting costs through the past year their share prices definitely reflect the more positive outlook.
GlaxoSmithKline also come to the market with the lights turning nicely from Amber to Green as their non-domestic income continues to perform.
In fact all of the big reporters this week seem to have one thing in common. They derive much of their revenue from outside the UK. BAT, Kazakhmys, BG Group are big in the UK but even bigger abroad.
The data from these companies may well flatter to deceive as the more domestically focussed units are probably still struggling and with nothing great to look forward to in 2010 as austerity begins to stalk the land.
Price update:
The FTSE 100 closed last week up 52.3 points at 5242.6 (up 1.01% week-on-week)
Wall St (Dow) closed last week down -23.73 points at 9972.18 (down -0.24% week-on-week)
The Nasdaq 100 closed last week down -2.33 points at 2154.47 (down -0.11% week-on-week)
The S&P 500 closed last week down -8.08 points at 1079.6 (down -0.74% week-on-week)
The CAC 40 closed last week down -19.36 points at 3808.24 (down -0.51% week-on-week)
The DAX 30 closed last week down -3.14 points at 5740.25 (down -0.05% week-on-week)
The Nikkei 225 closed last week up 25.43 points at 10282.99 (up 0.25% week-on-week)
Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Indices Spread Betting November 2009' by DB, updated 06-Nov-09
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Indices market news: With a new scent of confidence around even a poor number may be taken in the markets stride. In the meantime we do not expect much activity in the morning session after the opening levels are secured. The call on the FTSE 100 is for a rally to around 6025, 30 points higher than the close yesterday. The support at 5950 remains...read article. Indices Spread Bet May 2008, updated 23-May-08
Indices market news: The FTSE 100 is struggling to maintain current levels as more sellers coming into the game over the past few days. The squeeze up to 6390 of last week now seems a distant memory but of course dealers are generally hopeful of...read article. Indices Trading May 2008, updated 09-May-08
Indices market news: Indices are a tad weaker after the US indulged in one of its late night sell offs with the Dow Jones dropping 200 points from its highs and the S&P giving up on the 1400 level for now. The FTSE is called to come in 30 points lower at around...read article. Indices Trading April 2008, updated 25-Apr-08
Indices market news: The trading range of the FTSE almost exactly matched the previous days efforts with the ultimate result also almost identical. The markets continue to wrestle with the 5970 to 6100 range and my comment about many traders waiting for one or the other to be defeated still remains in place. Yesterdays action was an absolute boon to FinancialSpreads.com clients who as mentioned in yesterdays comment have been heavy sellers at anything above...read article. Indices Spread Bets April 2008, updated 11-Apr-08
Indices markets: Despite slightly negative taint to todays report, the FTSE 100 this morning has opened much better than expected causing a Gap higher on the open. Yesterdays reversal from the lows at around 3pm yesterday was so sharp and took many Financial Spreads clients by surprise that it could be a signal that...read article. Indices March Spread Trading, updated 28-Mar-08
Indices markets: The FTSE 100 is likely to open almost unchanged at around the 5710 level having looked weaker overnight in the US late trading session but deciding, on reflection, to hold onto the gains of yesterday. As mentioned in yesterdays comment there is a small sense of confidence brewing with our Capital Spreads clients, not huge, but enough to be noticeable on our books. The next...read article. Indices March Spread Betting, updated 14-Mar-08
Indices market information: The FTSE is reacting to the 400 point rally in the Dow last night with another 80 points to the upside as we regain the 5700 level with some ease. The FTSE 100 Spread is now at 5775-5776. Financial institutions are likely to be...read article. Indices February Spread Trading, updated 29-Feb-08
Indices market information: Another 100+ point movement day on the FTSE yesterday as the markets rejected the break out (again) and slumped back below 6000. To their credit the Financial Spreads clients never believed in the break out and sold virtually anything above the 6000 level and were rewarded in...read article. Real-time Indices Prices and Charts, updated 15-Feb-08
Indices pricing information: The FTSE rather disappointed yesterday after a very late sell off took us from 30 or so up on the day into negative territory. Today we are looking to come in just slightly to the downside at around the 5875 level. There is hope that...read article. UK Indices Spread Trading, updated 01-Feb-08
UK Indices Spread Trading: The FTSE 100 Spread is called 30 up this morning at 5910-5911 which is just below a bit of a resistance level at 5920. For all of the bad news around it is wise to remember that...read article. Spread Betting on Indices, updated 18-Jan-08
Compare Indices spreads. Free Indices spread trading information, where to find free Indices charts and prices, how to spread bet on Stock Market Indices and...read article. Indices Trading Online, updated 21-Dec-07
Find out where you can Trade Indices Online for free plus your Indices trading questions answered, tips on getting free Indices charts, real time prices and...read article. Indices Futures Trading, updated 07-Dec-07
Where to trade Indices Futures plus updated Indices trading news and the most popular Indices questions answered....read article. Indices Broker, updated 23-Nov-07
Where to find free Indices Brokers plus regular Indices financial trading news as well as the most popular Indices questions answered....read article. Indices Platform, updated 09-Nov-07
Where to find free Indices Platforms plus updated Indices trading news as well as the most popular Indices queries answered....read article. Indices Software, updated 26-Oct-07
Where to find free Indices Software information plus updated Indices trading news as well as the most popular Indices queries answered....read article. Indices Prices, updated 04-Feb-08
Where to find free Indices Prices plus updated Indices news as well as your top Indices questions answered....read article. Selling the FTSE 100, updated 12-Dec-08
Q) Where can I Trade for Free on FTSE 100? Q) How to Spread Bet on FTSE 100? Q) Where can I find Free Live Prices on FTSE 100?...The Answers...read article. Financial Spread Bet on Wall Street, updated 11-Dec-08
Q) Where can I Trade for Free on Wall Street? Q) How to Spread Bet on Wall Street? Q) Where can I find Free Live Prices on Wall Street? The Answers...read article. Spread Bet on Stock Market Indices, updated 01-Dec-08
To spread bet on stock market indices you do so in the same way as other spreads bets. A number of spread betting firms offer both a daily and futures Index market...read article. How to Spread Bet Stock Market Indices, updated 23-Feb-10
How to Spread Bet on Indices - an introduction to stock market betting. If you are looking for FTSE, Dow Jones, DAX or another major market like the NASDAQ and Nikkei, you're on the right website...read article.
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