Indices Spread Betting Markets Rise as Greece Agrees PSI Deal
Spread Betting 9 March 2012
Is this the final breaking point in the conversation over Greece? Unfortunately I fear not as we've been here so many times before.
It would be nice not to have to talk about the peripheral Eurozone nation and that maybe the case for the next few months after the PSI agreement deadline was finally met last night.
But if you think that there'll be no more talk about the Eurozone and the effect that it's recession and ongoing sovereign debt crisis then I'm afraid that you are mistaken.
The finer details of Greece's bond swap are being thrashed out with claims that a decent amount of the private creditors are taking part. Greek officials are saying that the target of 95% participation has been met, allowing them to claim that the agreement is completely voluntary.
Either way this is slightly academic as the deal has been done and Greece can now write down vast swathes of the debt it owes to private investors and move on.
The focus of the spread betting markets is likely to shift onto other parts of the Eurozone with Portugal being the main target.
Things here are looking decidedly dodgy too and many believe that they'll need another bailout from the EU, despite the efforts the country has been making in order to deal with its debt problems.
So far this morning the yields on the ten year bonds for Spain and Italy remain placid so there's no real fear at the moment.
The market is very much taking the news in its stride. Initially following the announcement the FTSE looked to be heading higher by some 20 points but at the time of writing we are roughly flat on the day in the mid 5800s.
The bounce from Tuesday's lows has been impressive but yesterday and this morning it just seems to have come to a bit of a standstill.
Very near term resistance is seen at 5890, 5910 and 5930 meanwhile support is around 5790 and 5765.
Over the longer term the index's upward trend has been called into question somewhat but the support at the 55 day moving average in the mid 5700 region has held up for now.
A break below here might get the alarm bells ringing for the bulls and this 5765/55 area is quite a key support level.
It's a big day for economic data with the US non farm payrolls at lunchtime. Before then the UK releases industrial and manufacturing production which is expected to rise.
Whilst manufacturing in the UK isn't what it once was, it still makes up a decent chunk of the UK economy so a decent number will be more than welcome as it'll be one more indication that a double dip will be avoided.
The highlight though is of course the NFP and following the bumper number last month that was way above expectations and saw the Dow jump over 100 points in a very short space of time.
Labour conditions in the US continue to show signs of improvement, much to the delight of incumbent President Obama ahead of the election in November.
Today's number is expected to come in over 200k again and if it's anything too different from that number we could expect similar fireworks.
The euro is just softening this morning and bears will be claiming that the move higher in the last couple of days was a dead cat bounce.
EUR/USD is at $1.3215 at the time of writing and once again all eyes for FX spread betting investors will be on the NFP number later today.
Near term support is seen at $1.3200, $1.3170 and then $1.3100 meanwhile resistance is seen at $1.3285 and $1.3350.
Gold is also a little softer this morning following a similar bounce to other risk assets that it has enjoyed in the last couple of days.
The yellow brick is at 1700 at the time of writing and traders will be keenly watching the near term support and resistance seen at $1685, $1672, $1663 and $1711, $1724 respectively.
Brent crude oil having rallied back above $126 is just a little lower at the time of writing as it trades at $125.15.
The US economic data today can cause volatility here to so watch out for any wild swings if the number is too far off the mark.
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'Indices Spread Betting Markets Rise as Greece Agrees PSI Deal' edited by SD, updated 09-Mar-12
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