There has been something of a follow through from the initial rejection of the lows recorded last Friday and Monday but the jury is still very much ‘out’ as to whether this is just a bear market correction or an indication of something more.
The plus side is actually rather a negative statement in that recent data is ‘no worse’ than expected. This might lead us into an argument concerning how much of the expected continuation of the downturn through 2009 and possibly into 2010 is already in the market.
With interest rates at below 1% for much of the globe, returns on equities are certainly attractive but the same argument could have been used for quite some time now and it has not exactly helped.
The US markets have put on quite a turn around this week, 700 points on the Dow Jones and 75 points on the S&P 500 from the Friday/Monday nadir. In hindsight (a wonderful view point for any commentator), the failure of the S&P to close below 675 four days in a row, from last Thursday to this Tuesday, was a possible positive indicator.
The S&P has now recovered to be above the Nov 2008 low. The Dow still has a 200+ point gap. Traders will be looking for the potential of the 772/775 resistance and possibly, for the real optimists, the 800 support/resistance level.
For the Dow there is a very obvious resistance to any move higher with the medium term falling trend line which is currently at around 7475.
For those with a darker view it is advisable to point out that we have had many of these solid looking bounces over the last 18 months and all have proved to bear a bitter harvest. Still… we can but hope.
The rally in the US and Far East markets yesterday and this morning is working it magic on the FTSE and we are looking at an opening of around 3775 up about 60 points.
The senior UK index did not actually suffer quite so much as many of the world indices during February but this is being matched by the fact that it does not seem to want to rally quite so strongly on the rebound.
The DAX 30 was briefly trading underneath the FTSE 100 towards the end of last month but is now 230 points to the good.
The German index is running into resistance at 4030, the lows of October and November. A rejection of this level could send it down quite sharply. On the other hand a renewed move higher with a close above this point might be taken very favourably by longer term players who remain on the sidelines at the moment.
For the FTSE, several resistance levels have already gone by the wayside and the important question will be “can we remain here or higher” and build some kind of support. Or will the moves of the last 4 days come to nothing? Time will, of course, tell but as with quite a few comments of the last few weeks it must be pointed out that there is good value out there if (and only if) investors can live with any downside.
Spread Betting on Indices, 12 Mar 2009
A little profit taking is creeping in this morning with the FTSE expected to drift a little lower on the open and not being able to hold onto the 3700.
The test will be whether the market can maintain Tuesday’s rally and push on to break through the near term resistance levels of 3765 and then 3850. If that can be achieved then we’ll most likely be seeing a bear market bounce. The next test for indices will be if they can push on from merely a bear market bounce and confirm that the recent lows are the bottom of the market.
A bear market bounces typically lasts around 30 days, so this’ll take us to around 22nd April. If the markets have continued their rally from these lows, the test will be if indices can carry on higher into May.
Before Tuesday’s big rally the news was incredibly dire. Walking around the City I’ve never seen so many heads drooping and long faces. Everything is looking so grim that the last few days have almost done the complete opposite to an over bought market in a bull run. At the highs you often hear calls for new highs and records, only for the bubble to burst and in this scenario we are seeing the opposite. Things have become so negative and that’s usually when the market turns, ie at its extremes.
Despite the fall expected in the FTSE 100 on the open this morning the news flow is a little mixed with supermarket Morrison posting some good figures. The supermarkets that are considered to be rather more budget than the likes of Tesco and Waitrose are gaining market share on the UK’s retail giant. This could be a long term trend for the supermarkets with consumers looking for the best deals. When the consumer bounces back it could be difficult for Tesco to win back these customers.
Spread Betting on Indices, 11 Mar 2009
Was the big rally yesterday a signal of the end of the latest bear phase or was it just a squeeze of weak shorts? The fact that, for once, the move made light work of, admittedly weak, resistance levels in its surge higher may give hope to battered investors. However it would be a fool indeed who believed that one swallow makes a summer.
There will almost certainly be some form of pull back in the next few days but traders should not be too quick to assume or rely on this. Remember the markets will move in the direction that causes the greatest pain to the greatest number of people. Too many dealers selling into the small rally might well build the conditions for another shift to the upside. As with all dealing it is advisable to pick your level (for whatever reason), stick to it, and have your stop in mind.
Today sees the FTSE 100 being called almost unchanged on the open at around 3715 and the battle for some form of stability will presumably start right from the outset. It seems too easy to just assume immediate weakness but this does seem to be the most likely initial action.
Punters who were heavily long at the start of yesterday have made a huge profit yesterday but have now switched round and clients are now net short going into the open. Such a small reversal is obviously not enough to call a turn but it would be a very brave investor who bet too much on such a swift return to the downside.
The Dow Jones of course also move heavily to the upside with a 350 point reversal. However, as with the FTSE, the Dow only managed to breach a few minor resistance levels, albeit quite easily. The bigger barriers remained out of reach. The obvious 7000 psychological level, 7120 and 7400 are still pipe dreams for the future.
Spread Betting on Indices, 10 Mar 2009
With expectations from a huge majority (according to polls) that the FTSE has between 10 and 30% still to fall it might come as some surprise that our clients are very long indeed at the moment and buyers are continually entering the picture on any weakness.
The sub 3500 level in the FTSE 100 is particularly popular with large numbers of punters coming in and the fact that we are continually bouncing off the level seems to indicate that just for the moment enough of the big boys agree to hold us up.
Markets this morning seem just a bit more optimistic with the FTSE and the DAX ignoring the sell off in the States last night and coming just on the side of the angels.
The weakness in Gold might also be something of a short term bull indicator for equities as investors start to offload the yellow metal in favour of return. Gold has fallen $35 from the high on Friday and the odds on another attempt on the $900 level have shortened significantly.
The FTSE has been forming something of a falling wedge formation over the last week or so and there is good headroom for a move above 3600 if we can get over the pessimism that still engulfs every announcement. One hesitates to sound even remotely positive these days but a break above 3620 might well be a very strong signal for a move to more favourable waters.
Spread Betting on Indices, 9 Mar 2009
Despite a decline in Asian indices this morning the FTSE is expected to commence this week in positive territory, albeit for our call to be only open 10 points up. In the US on Friday night Wall Street provided yet another last minute flurry of activity as the Dow surged 200 points off its low to post a gain on the day.
The past few weeks has seen many of these sorts of moves from US indices in both directions with either a very sharp fall from its highs or a big rally from its lows.
Friday’s move indicates that there are still buyers out there although it could be down to some short covering as the momentum didn’t follow through to Asian stocks last night.
The overall technical picture for indices is still incredibly weak with lower lows and lower highs setting the trend, it looks impossible to be able to see any sort of bottom in the markets.
The FTSE 100 is just about the strongest index at the moment and has formed a support line around and just below the 3500 mark. Every time we have dipped to this level it has attracted a wave of buyers. With all the headlines citing new multi year lows clients have being seeing this as a buying opportunity and remain long of the FTSE. However, when you look at the other indices it’s difficult to get bullish.
Price Update:
The FTSE 100 closed last week down -299.4 points at 3530.7 (down -7.82%)
Wall St (Dow) closed last week down -435.99 points at 6626.94 (down -6.17%)
The Nasdaq closed last week down -83.99 points at 1293.85 (down -6.1%)
The S&P 500 closed last week down -51.71 points at 683.38 (down -7.03%)
The DAX closed last week down -177.33 points at 3666.41 (down -4.61%)
The Nikkei closed last week down -395.32 points at 7173.1 (down -5.22%)
This morning is seeing a bit of stability across the various indices after the US closed close to its lows. However, as with my previous comments, it would be a brave investor who tried to bottom pick their way out of this market. Major players continue to shun equities and after the huge rally in Gilts yesterday you can see why. Values for State debt are now at all time highs (or thereabouts) and you can understand why with base rates at 0.5% and no real prospect of any hikes for many, many months. The spectre of deflation continues to hover over the markets.
Clients continue (despite the warnings) to try to buy into the falls and yesterday was particularly bloody for some with banking and insurance stocks combining with the indices weakness to make it a very grim day indeed. While hedge funds are rumoured (yet again) to have made money shorting banks the same cannot be said for the bulk of our spread bettors who unfortunately bought continuously into any weakness.
Spread Betting on Indices, 5 Mar 2009
The squeeze higher yesterday lasted right up to the last hour in New York but then, as seems to be quite normal these days, it was the last forty minutes of trading which finally defined the day. The high print at 6984 (just shy of 7000) was too much and investors blinked in the sunlight and lost their nerve.
The subsequent end to the day saw us drop 140 points, bad but still above the close on Monday, 150 up on the day, and possibly giving us a pause for breath after the last 17 trading sessions of deep depression.
The FTSE is opening 35 lower at 3610 and the average yield on a FTSE 100 stock is now 6.9%. Even if every company in the index halved their payouts this would still be 2.5% above current rates and possibly 3% by this afternoon. As you’ve guessed, it’s MPC day again.
Spread Betting on Indices, 4 Mar 2009
A dismal day yesterday after a bright start and today the fear will be that the same thing is going to happen today.
The markets are all called well up on yesterday’s closing levels as the Far East found some strength from rather more hopeful manufacturing numbers out of China and speculation that the various stimulus packages were likely to be expanded once again. While the US and Europe endured a miserable session the Nikkei 225, Hang Seng and Topix actually managed a rally (the Hang Seng surging 3%).
The problem for investors is that we seem to be going through the same routine every day. Hope in the morning, hope then spills into despair in the afternoon/evening and the FTSE futures have now had 12 down days in the last 13 sessions.
If there is any buying pressure left it will have to overcome some significant support levels which will now have metamorphosed into resistance. With the call on the open at 3550 the first target is 3570-80 then 3600 and above here the major support level at 3660.
Unfortunately spread betting accounts were sucked into the rally first thing in the morning of yesterday’s session and buyers were caught out by the sharp falls after the opening surge and in the late afternoon. Those who held on suffered throughout the day but might be clinging onto some optimism today.
Spread Betting on Indices, 3 Mar 2009
As feared in yesterday’s early morning comment the continued desperate news flow hit an already demoralised market and we finally fell below the low prints in the FTSE recorded in last October’s dramatic events.
It may come as some surprise to readers (listening to the ever more strident financial news) that Equity prices were actually down here just five months ago (albeit very briefly). The bounce, back then, took us almost a thousand points higher all the way up to 4635. Unfortunately no such saviour is expected just now, Our Gordon is unlikely to say that he has saved the economy / world / universe this time around. At the moment our lords and masters seem more intent with pillorying one person than trying to find a way out of the mess that we find ourselves in.
This morning sees a minor bounce in the markets from the late night lows in the indices yesterday as a very rare piece of good news hit the wires with JP Morgan reporting a 5 billion profit for 2008. As competitors fall by the wayside and investors begin to understand that the bank has (to a large extent) avoided the disasters of its peers more and more business is gravitating to their books. A flight to quality is being seen with counterparties looking to avoid Citi, BOA and the old investment banks.
The FTSE 100 is called up about 15 points at 3640 having traded as low as 3580 in last nights after hours activity. Clients continue (as mentioned yesterday) to try to pick a bottom and have been almost incessant buyers for most of the fall over the last week. Words of caution seem to fall on deaf ears. The belief of “it must bounce sometime” has almost become a mantra, unfortunately the rather more accurate saying of “the market will move in the direction which causes the greatest amount of pain to the greatest number of people” has proved its worth once again.
The FTSE is now at its lowest point since 2003 when our company opened its doors for business and while I am also of the opinion that the market must bounce sometime I am not willing to commit more than a very small sum to that belief. Bear markets generally end with a huge blow out move as the last bull is finally slaughtered and then the entire index runs out of sellers. Are we there yet? Probably not. But you never know.
Spread Betting on Indices, 2 Mar 2009
The FTSE is being called 90 points or so lower at around 3740, the level, approximately, from which we have bounce several times in the last six months. If we do not recover from here today this will make eleven down days out of the last twelve. This is bad even when looking at the last 18 months of never ending disasters.
Punters continue to buy into the falls and I can only hope that they are correct in their assumption of some kind of support from these levels. In reality the news continues to deteriorate and we really do need, desperately, to have some vision that the ruling elite have any real idea of a solution rather than just reacting, ever more frantically, to current events. At some point nasty decisions are going to have to be taken.
Price Update:
The FTSE 100 closed last week down -59 points at 3830.1 (down -1.52%)
Wall St (Dow) closed last week down -302.74 points at 7062.93 (down -4.11%)
The Nasdaq closed last week down -63.39 points at 1377.84 (down -4.4%)
The S&P 500 closed last week down -34.96 points at 735.09 (down -4.54%)
The DAX closed last week down -170.92 points at 3843.74 (down -4.26%)
The Nikkei closed last week up 152.04 points at 7568.42 (up 2.05%)
Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Indices Spread Betting March 2009' by DB, updated 13-Mar-09
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Indices market news: The trading range of the FTSE almost exactly matched the previous days efforts with the ultimate result also almost identical. The markets continue to wrestle with the 5970 to 6100 range and my comment about many traders waiting for one or the other to be defeated still remains in place. Yesterdays action was an absolute boon to FinancialSpreads.com clients who as mentioned in yesterdays comment have been heavy sellers at anything above...read article. Indices Spread Bets April 2008, updated 11-Apr-08
Indices markets: Despite slightly negative taint to todays report, the FTSE 100 this morning has opened much better than expected causing a Gap higher on the open. Yesterdays reversal from the lows at around 3pm yesterday was so sharp and took many Financial Spreads clients by surprise that it could be a signal that...read article. Indices March Spread Trading, updated 28-Mar-08
Indices markets: The FTSE 100 is likely to open almost unchanged at around the 5710 level having looked weaker overnight in the US late trading session but deciding, on reflection, to hold onto the gains of yesterday. As mentioned in yesterdays comment there is a small sense of confidence brewing with our Capital Spreads clients, not huge, but enough to be noticeable on our books. The next...read article. Indices March Spread Betting, updated 14-Mar-08
Indices market information: The FTSE is reacting to the 400 point rally in the Dow last night with another 80 points to the upside as we regain the 5700 level with some ease. The FTSE 100 Spread is now at 5775-5776. Financial institutions are likely to be...read article. Indices February Spread Trading, updated 29-Feb-08
Indices market information: Another 100+ point movement day on the FTSE yesterday as the markets rejected the break out (again) and slumped back below 6000. To their credit the Financial Spreads clients never believed in the break out and sold virtually anything above the 6000 level and were rewarded in...read article. Real-time Indices Prices and Charts, updated 15-Feb-08
Indices pricing information: The FTSE rather disappointed yesterday after a very late sell off took us from 30 or so up on the day into negative territory. Today we are looking to come in just slightly to the downside at around the 5875 level. There is hope that...read article. UK Indices Spread Trading, updated 01-Feb-08
UK Indices Spread Trading: The FTSE 100 Spread is called 30 up this morning at 5910-5911 which is just below a bit of a resistance level at 5920. For all of the bad news around it is wise to remember that...read article. Spread Betting on Indices, updated 18-Jan-08
Compare Indices spreads. Free Indices spread trading information, where to find free Indices charts and prices, how to spread bet on Stock Market Indices and...read article. Indices Trading Online, updated 21-Dec-07
Find out where you can Trade Indices Online for free plus your Indices trading questions answered, tips on getting free Indices charts, real time prices and...read article. Indices Futures Trading, updated 07-Dec-07
Where to trade Indices Futures plus updated Indices trading news and the most popular Indices questions answered....read article. Indices Broker, updated 23-Nov-07
Where to find free Indices Brokers plus regular Indices financial trading news as well as the most popular Indices questions answered....read article. Indices Platform, updated 09-Nov-07
Where to find free Indices Platforms plus updated Indices trading news as well as the most popular Indices queries answered....read article. Indices Software, updated 26-Oct-07
Where to find free Indices Software information plus updated Indices trading news as well as the most popular Indices queries answered....read article. Indices Prices, updated 04-Feb-08
Where to find free Indices Prices plus updated Indices news as well as your top Indices questions answered....read article. Selling the FTSE 100, updated 12-Dec-08
Q) Where can I Trade for Free on FTSE 100? Q) How to Spread Bet on FTSE 100? Q) Where can I find Free Live Prices on FTSE 100?...The Answers...read article. Financial Spread Bet on Wall Street, updated 11-Dec-08
Q) Where can I Trade for Free on Wall Street? Q) How to Spread Bet on Wall Street? Q) Where can I find Free Live Prices on Wall Street? The Answers...read article. Spread Bet on Stock Market Indices, updated 01-Dec-08
To spread bet on stock market indices you do so in the same way as other spreads bets. A number of spread betting firms offer both a daily and futures Index market...read article. How to Spread Bet Stock Market Indices, updated 17-Mar-10
How to Spread Bet on Indices - an introduction to stock market betting. If you are looking for FTSE, Dow Jones, DAX or another major market like the NASDAQ and Nikkei, you're on the right website...read article.
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