The FTSE is looking to open around 50 points to the good this morning some 140 points off the lows at Midday yesterday but this still only leaves us at around the closing price of Tuesday and well below all 2006 and 2007 traded lows. The charts now show nine straight losing weeks. Something that is unprecedented.
Spread Betting Account holders rode the rally well yesterday with many more longs than shorts making for a nice little turn for many clients. Added to this the selling at $1.60 in the Eur/Usd and the heavy shorting of Crude Oil before the inventories number yesterday and it all adds up to one of the best days this year for the majority.
Spread Betting on Indices, 16 Jul 08
Early calls on the FTSE are for the market to rally some 30 points to around 5200-5201 but the woes surrounding the financial sector seem to get worse and worse. RBS’s fall into the mid 160’s is truly astounding given that even the most bearish analyst was only talking about 230p a couple on months ago. The bank is now worth less than they paid for their bit of ABN Amro which makes the debt taken to do the deal loom ever larger in investors minds.
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Spread Betting on Indices, 15 Jul 08
And, after the Dow’s dismal performance last night followed by a 2-3% drop across the Far East, this morning we have opened lower again.
The Dax called 80 lower and the FTSE 40 off. This might actually be considered a ‘good’ achievement after the draining away of confidence throughout yesterday’s trading session. The FTSE is now sitting just above a minor support level between 5240 and 5260 but if we close below here the focus will alter towards the major 5085-5120 support from 2005. The only thing holding the index higher at the moment are the mining and oil stocks, if commodities do begin to weaken or even just stabalise then this crutch could well be kicked away as well.
Spread Betting on Indices, 14 Jul 08
Markets look to be on the plus side this morning as we look forward to a reasonably quiet week on the UK corporate news front. No major banks or builders are due to say anything at all during the week which will come as something of a relief I am sure. Not only this but mining and oil is also a tad on the light side with the only piece of news being a production update from Rio on Wednesday.
Early calls are for the FTSE 100 to come in some 60 points up but this is more to do with the US Friday night rally and the news that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are being given a rather more overt government backing than the current implicit support. How this gels with the fact that it is a quoted company I do not know.
The FTSE 100 closed last week down -151.2 at 5261.6 (down -2.79%)
Wall St closed last week down -184 at 11104.54 (down -1.63%)
The Nasdaq closed last week down -6.3 at 2239.08 (down -0.28%)
The S&P 500 closed last week down -23.41 at 1239.49 (down -1.85%)
The DAX closed last week down -118.91 at 6153.3 (down -1.9%)
The Nikkei closed last week down -198.2 at 13039.69 (down -1.5%)
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Spread Betting on Indices, 11 Jul 08
European indices are trying to end the week on a positive note and if we end the day at the current levels it will be just about where we started the week off albeit a few points higher.
For the technical analysts the weekly candlestick will have created a "doji" which is considered to be a sign of indecision whereby buyers and sellers are balancing each other out and is seen as a indication of a reversal. It does not come as much surprise since the market seems to have hit a bit of a bottom and recent calls for the FTSE 100 to test the 5000 level have been proved wrong so far. You would not be blamed if you were wrong for thinking that a low has now been set. This weeks price action has shown resilience in the face of terrible news flow and continual bearish sentiment. It will take brave investors to pile heavily into the equity market but as mentioned earlier in the week, even in bear markets indices can rise dramatically. Since the FTSE has posted a near 14% loss in the last 2 months, the temptation could prove all too great and despite rates remaining on hold yesterday, the signals are that rate will not be going up in a hurry.
Spread Betting on Indices, 10 Jul 08
The battle at these low levels has become quite ferocious as the FTSE 100 tries to decide which direction it wants to go in. In the last six trading days the market has rallied strongly four times and been battered heavily lower four times, making for eight 100 point plus moves. And yet we open this morning at pretty much the same point as this time last week.
The overnight falls in the Dow Jones and S&P will weigh on our opening sentiment but the Far East pretty much ignored the worst trading session in S&P 500 financial stock for six years so the impact might not be as bad as was being indicated late last night.
The opening call on the FTSE is for a drop of some 80 points at around 5445 still well above recent lows in the mid 5300’s but a disappointment after the strong performance yesterday when many of the banking and builder stocks picked up after a torrid few days. It is getting very difficult to call one day after another as sentiment on trading floors seems to turning on a six pence with very little rhyme or reason to explain the moves. The fact that the BOE will be announcing its latest interest rate decision will also make trading a touch dangerous for the early session.
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Spread Betting on Indices, 9 Jul 08
Bear Market...so yesterday the FTSE 100 finally entered "official" bear market territory and it's hard to believe that people have been so slow to accept that so far this year the equity markets have been trading with all the hallmarks of a bear market. It's true to say that not all sectors have been out of favour (energy and mining) but even now there are doubts over these stocks as their share prices have snapped back from their highs. If we see further declines in these sectors, and a great deal of that will be down to whether oil and precious metal prices fall from their highs, then indices could struggle to recover the ground they've lost for a few years.
Bear markets are distinguished by their lifetime as well as how low they last. When you look at the last bear market we endured, which started in 2000, it lasted a good three years. So if the credit crunch from a year ago was the trigger (which seems most likely since bank stocks started to tumble then), we could be looking at depressed stock prices until the end of the decade.
This morning we have a bounce from indices after Wall Street stocks rebounded fiercely. At one stage last night we were calling the FTSE 100 to open as high as 5520. It often seems to be the case that once the headlines spell doom and gloom for everyone that the following day the markets rebuff all the comments and everyone wonders what the fuss is about. However, be under no impression that a rally here or a rally there means we are out of the woods. In March this year the markets tried to recover and that ended up as a cat that was not even born. Capital Spreads Accounts remain on the short side, selling into this morning's strength and this will probably remain the case if indices show anymore strength.
The markets are now higher and we are back to 5500 for the moment after Asian stocks bounced off a 21 month low. Today is quiet on the economic data front and the trading ranges of European indices will probably remain narrow until US markets open after lunch.
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Spread Betting on Indices, 8 Jul 08
Well so much for yesterday’s rally. The early call is for the FTSE to come in over 120 points lower which is exceptional even in these days. Normally we have to trade for a while before the market takes this kind of a dive. Banks and Builders will once again lead the way down and Bradford and Bingley widely reported last summer as not being another Northern Rock now transpires might be an even worse basket case in that it could go to the wall for very good reasons (bad loans) rather than NR’s very bad reason which was lack of liquidity.
It is getting increasingly worrying that many UK banks appear on the cusp of implosion when the wider economy has not actually yet felt much in the way of the cold winds of recession. Corporate loans have not seen much analyst focus to date as most of the investigation has been into the housing market but most of our major banks have huge small and medium business risk. Of course the equity prices of many of the banks seem to have written in worst case scenarios by the bucket load but we stand in danger (small at this point I realise) of a 1990’s Scandinavian style bank failure.
Spread Betting on Indices, 7 Jul 08
Last week’s Indices: With US markets closed for 4 July the US Indices fared better than the rest of the world. Wall Street and the S&P fell by 0.5% and 1.2% respectively. The FTSE 100 and Nikkei 225 both dropped another 2.3% and the Dax lost 2.1%. Elsewhere, Emerging Markets Indices saw falls of 4-6%.
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Indices Spread Betting July 2008' by DB, updated 18-Jul-08
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