Dealers continue to oppose the market moves and this has stood them in very good stead for the last few weeks.
On this basis we are seeing solid buying this morning after the falls of yesterday and it would be a braver man than me to state that they were wrong. As mentioned several times there seems little appetite for heavy buying above 4300 but conversely nobody wants to offload below 4000. At the moment this is making for constrained trading within the aforementioned range.
The market is unlikely to be exactly exciting this morning as there are virtually no corporate announcements and the treasury data releases confined to money supply numbers. It will be no surprise if these are not exactly stellar.
The FTSE 100 looks like opening around 4170, off about 20, but the price is slowly advancing as more buyers emerge.
Spread Betting on Indices, 29 Jan 2009
The FTSE managed a nice little rally yesterday but this morning a bit of profit taking is coming out. 4300 is still a bit of an effort for the markets to beat even if banking shares manage to double in a couple of days.
Spread Betting Account holders are looking for a pull back in the market and have been selling the indices through yesterday and this morning. The open call this morning is at about 4280 off about 15 points. I have to say that although I believe there is value out there the current small bull move over the last three or four days is already looking a bit tired.
Trading ranges are getting much more constrained and the days of 150 point high/lows day after day after day might be gone. Strong Support for the market remains down at 4000 but we now have some smaller support levels at 4250-4255 and 4130. To the upside the 4315-4325 resistance looks a tough nut to crack but if we do get through then 4395-4415 looks to be the next target level.
Spread Betting on Indices, 28 Jan 2009
It is interesting to watch the gyrations of the various markets as market perceptions change day by day and yesterday was a classic of its kind. The FTSE 100 traded in a 90 point range through the session but this disguises the fact that there were fully seven 50 point reversals during the day (enough for any budding trader to get his/her teeth into) only for the index to close just a few points away from the previous day.
This has become a general theme of the last month or so with many markets trading and re-trading the same ranges over the hours, days, weeks. Punters committing enough margin to individual positions (i.e. not over leveraging) are finding that losses need never be taken as the markets are currently being very kind and eventually coming back to the entry price. This is NOT a recommendation.
The FTSE 100 is currently up about 50 points at 4250 but seems to be struggling at this level to break higher into the 4300’s. The index has oscillated around between 4000 and 4400 (with the odd attempted break out) for four months now and it would be a brave man who predicted that this state of affairs is likely to change now.
My year end 2009 target, extracted from me at the end of Dec, was for 4400. Just at the moment this seems quite comfortable. Of course I will deny I ever said this later in the year.
Spread Betting on Indices, 27 Jan 2009
My comment yesterday morning that I was a tad surprised at the market opening weaker was confirmed by the ensuing rally which ground on throughout the rest of the trading session and the FTSE 100 finally closed out over 150 points to the good.
This morning is likely to see some small reversal on the open (possibly 30 off) but this is normal after such a large daily run to the up side (or down for that matter). At 4185 we are back in the middle of the trading range mentioned many times over the last month or so between 4000 and 4350. Spread betting account holders are looking for a continuation of the current move and have remained long of the Index through the move yesterday.
Spread Betting on Indices, 26 Jan 2009
This morning is a bit surprising. I was fully expecting the markets to open on the strong side in early action but the Far East has taken a deal of the shine off things and the FTSE is called back down at around 4025, off 30 points.
As mentioned last week the FTSE 100 seems to be struggling to hold below 4000 and, conversely, stay above 4350. Friday’s action yet again backed this up with early trading taking the index down to 3950 only for buying to arrive to ‘save the day’.
In truth the support still looks good and every failure to break makes it stronger. Clients continue to take any approach towards the 4000 level and below as a buying opportunity and it is now quite sometime since our traders saw any net short positions on the FTSE Index.
On the other hand...For the first time ever, in our company’s history, our clients are now short individual stocks (and this is nothing to do with banking stock as they are massively long of RBS, Barclays, Lloyds etc).
For those of you who like to think that the majority view is generally wrong this might be the indication that the market might, finally, be ready to rally.
For those readers with very long memories you might remember an article I wrote back in the summer of ’07 revealing that clients were 15 to 1 in long positions versus short. Representing the biggest bull percentage position ever taken by our punters (normally single stock bets are around 8 or 9 to 1 long). My prognosis then was that this was as good a bear signal as you were likely to get as when too many people are in one direction then the pressure reverts to the opposite trend. The converse may well hold true here in that we have now got so bearish that the pressure could well start to reverse.
Price Update:
The FTSE 100 closed last week down -94.6 points at 4052.5 (down -2.28%)
Wall St (Dow) closed last week down -203.66 points at 8077.56 (down -2.46%)
The Nasdaq closed last week down -52.04 points at 1477.29 (down -3.4%)
The S&P 500 closed last week down -18.17 points at 831.95 (down -2.14%)
The DAX closed last week down -187.34 points at 4178.94 (down -4.29%)
The Nikkei closed last week down -484.9 points at 7745.25 (down -5.89%)
Markets seem very much in two minds as to the next direction. The FTSE and Dow are swinging wildly during each session first pressuring the upside and then the down only to revert to the up again.
This type of trading activity is generally an indication that we are about to break out from the current range but nobody is too sure which way.
On the face of it valuations appear generous (good p/e levels and solid yields versus Treasury and cash rates). On the other hand the continuing (and seemingly accelerating) rate of decline of the Global economy leaves many investors wary of taking the plunge.
Added to this, yields on corporate bonds are now so generous, and afford greater protection than straight equities, that they are affecting the possible attraction for stock.
The call this morning is for the FTSE to open at around the 4030 level off 15 from the official settlement at 16.30 yesterday but 50 points down from the futures close at 9pm last night. The index has made a series of attempts to trade down here over the past few days but there is definite support between 4000 and 4030 and we will probably need something new to actually break lower.
Spread Betting on Indices, 21 Jan 2009
The FTSE has now recovered from the early sell off after the US seemed to take the moment President Obama stepped up to swear in as a signal to sell. The index is now in positive territory at just over 4100 and this level (approximately) continues to be a difficult one for the market to close beneath.
Spread Betting on Indices, 20 Jan 2009
Markets appear to be quite sanguine at the prospect of the demise of much of our banking network but the events of the past few days are unlikely to generate anything other than increasing fear amongst the UK population as to their future prosperity.
The year end rally now seems to be a distant memory (all of two weeks ago today the FTSE was 15% higher at 4680) and while the majority of the falls in the index have been bank related this commentator finds it difficult to believe that where the banks go then many other stocks will not follow.
Yesterday saw an initial rally to 4250 as investors hoped for some safety from the new State bail out package but once ‘Our Gordon’ actually started to speak it became obvious that shareholders were the least of this government’s worries.
In my comment yesterday I focussed on the resistance to a move above 4250 and the support below 4100 this pretty neatly summed up the eventual trading range for the session with the high at 4252 and the eventual close just above 4100 after an attempt to force the market even lower.
The call this morning is for the markets to open slightly weaker at bang on 4100 but while the entire UK economic situation seems to be pretty dire it must be remembered that some 70% of the FTSE 100 revenue is made overseas. With the pound deteriorating this may mean that profit margins on foreign earnings get a significant boost and the value of UK stocks in euro and dollar terms start to look ever more attractive.
The current bear move probably has more to do but if even a modicum of optimism returns the markets may well move sharply higher very quickly.
Spread Betting on Indices, 19 Jan 2009
Markets have opened to the up side over the weekend news of even more state intervention in the banking system in an attempt to influence the money markets.
Dealing has been fast and furious this morning with the bulls and bears fighting it out for supremacy. As I write the bulls ‘have it’ with the FTSE 100 up around 80 points at 4225 but it would be a brave investor who commits too many funds in this market.
Support seems to be solid just below 4100 but conversely pressure remains above 4250. Longer term the failure of the recent move higher to break above 4687 (the high of the November rally) may be seen to be very disappointing and with the deteriorating global environment there is a possibility of a renewed attempt (medium term) to challenge the double bottom at around 3700.
Banks received a bit of a boost in early action but the optimism has died away as ‘Our Gordon’ spoke to journalists.
Price Update:
The FTSE 100 closed last week down -301.4 points at 4147.1 (down -6.78%)
Wall St (Dow) closed last week down -317.96 points at 8281.22 (down -3.7%)
The Nasdaq closed last week down -42.26 points at 1529.33 (down -2.69%)
The S&P 500 closed last week down -40.23 points at 850.12 (down -4.52%)
The DAX closed last week down -417.61 points at 4366.28 (down -8.73%)
The Nikkei closed last week down -606.65 points at 8230.15 (down -6.87%)
Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Indices Spread Bets January 2009' by DB, updated 31-Jan-09
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