Indices Spread Bets April 2008
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Indices Spread Trading
A regular Indices spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Indices spread trading update, click here.
Indices Spread Betting, 11 Apr 08
Despite slightly negative taint to today's report, the FTSE 100 this morning has opened much better than expected causing a "gap" higher on the open. Yesterday's reversal from the lows at around 3 o'clock yesterday was so sharp and took many clients by surprise that it could be a signal that we'll test this week's high of 6034. A close above 6000 at the end of today will be encouraging for the bulls and might be one of the few pieces of good news for the FTSE 100 this week. Clients seem happy to sell into the strength of the FTSE this morning and one can't help thinking that even if we go higher, clients will continue to sell considering the news flow.
Indices Spread Betting, 10 Apr 08
Today we see the FTSE holding on to the gains of the past week or so as the opening levels have us up 10 points or so close to the 6000 level. Markets are very quiet as we await the expected 0.50% cut by the Bank of England and we might get an initial move higher as investors look to lock in some yield at the current prices. But dealers are wary as they will be fearful of a ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ scenario.
We have now spent four sessions in a tight trading range and looking back over the past months this kind of contraction has always been the precursor to a big move. Our Financial Spreads punters are positioning themselves for this move to be to the downside but the probability must be for a spike higher as a continuation of the recent trend.
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Indices Spread Betting, 9 Apr 08
The headlines of the last few days don't make for good reading and the market is feeling a little under the weather this morning. The minutes released by the FOMC last night didn't exude confidence so sellers are in control for the time being. HBOS has felt the brunt of selling this morning as Credit Suisse downgraded the stock. Other banks across Europe have also received downgrades this morning, in particular Switzerland's largest, Commerzbank. As a result financials are putting the pressure on the market.
Encouragingly though, the FTSE 100 has already bounced off yesterday's low of 5950 this morning marking in a near term support level. However if that is breached we could head lower quite quickly.
Indices Spread Betting, 8 Apr 08
Despite the continuing doom and gloom the FTSE and other global indices seem to be showing remarkable resilience with the UK's benchmark finishing above the all important 6000 level. With 5 gains out of the last 6 sessions, the bulls are really testing the sellers at the moment, trying to drag equities out of this bear market. There is still a great deal of negative sentiment within the square mile and it seems the majority believe that this bear market has further to run. The recent rise back to the 6000 level has largely been put down to:
- The absence of really bad news
- The beginning of a new quarter, and
- Expectations of an interest rate cut this Thursday
The bearish signs are still there with the US reporting worse than expected job numbers last week, banks and mortgage lenders continuing to tighten their belt, record oil prices and now even the consumers feeling the brunt of the credit squeeze.
Clients have been building up short positions in indices over the past few days so they'll be glad to see the market dipping back below the 6000 level this morning. This morning the market has wiped out only half of the gain it made yesterday and whilst this can't be considered as profit taking, it indicates the cautious mood of investors at the moment. Understandably so since Alcoa kicked off the US reporting season with terrible results, announcing a halving of their Q1 profits.
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Indices Spread Betting, 7 Apr 08
We are looking to open higher again today on the FTSE 100 as the effects of the Fed’s bail out of Bear Stearns and the lack of any really bad piece of news continues to bolster the Financial Sector and therefore (in the current situation) the rest of the indices component parts.
Today sees the FTSE looking to open some 30 pips higher at near to the 6000 level with the FTSE 100 spread at 5970-5971. We have now seen some 500 points to the upside since the Federal Reserve’s Bear Stearns bailout. As mentioned several times over the past week, the crucial level is just above 6100 and we really need to get here and stay here for the big investment arms to come in with greater determination. At the moment trading volumes are still quite restrained and much of the rally (and the previous fall) has been more to do with Market Maker pricing weakness than with genuine conviction. Selling is likely to be quite strong at these levels as we approach more critical points.
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Indices Spread Betting, 4 Apr 08
The FTSE is opening slightly to the good as we look for a second leg to the bear squeeze of the last few days. It is tempting to say that the current situation is a moment of peace whilst we await the decision as to whether the recent rally is just a short term bear rally or an indication that the markets may be regaining some composure. Whichever scenario turns out to be the answer we can still expect some positive moves to the upside if short positions get squeezed any further. As discussed before, we really need to get above 6100 and stay there, that would give some indication that the current negative sentiment might have run its course. Until then we are still in ‘bear mode’ albeit in a period of light relief.
Indices Spread Betting, 3 Apr 08
A peaceful start to the day with most of the indices trading at pretty much the same levels as yesterday's close. The bull run managed another day of solid gains in the FTSE, but the suspicion is that much of the move has been of the bear squeeze variety. There are still some heavy shorts out there in the banks and the feeling is growing of the possibility that the current move may well have another leg to it as bears finally get pushed into covering their positions.
The FTSE 100 Spread is currently at 5914 - 5915 off 1 whole point and the trading range for the first hour has been almost miserly. With the Non Farm numbers out tomorrow from the States we may well be in for some consolidation at these prices as traders flatten out positions in anticipation of what might be a BIG mover.
Indices Spread Betting, 2 Apr 08
Whilst the markets had one of their better days (the Dow apparently had its best start to the third quarter in 70 years) the actual news coming out was not exactly stunning. Reading the business section of various newspapers seemed to be a bit of a masochistic occupation this morning. Confidence level weakness and minor profit warnings abounded. If the problems of the financial sector do start to filter through into the general economy as a whole we can expect this secondary phase to start to kick in over the summer months.
The FTSE bulls are looking for a break above 5885 as the first indication that this current move might be more than just a flash in the pan but to be truly confirmed the index really needs to get above 6110 and stay there for the big investors to start believing in an end to the last years’ turbulence.
The opening quotes are for a small increase in yesterdays move with the call at around 6865. The Capital Spreads Account Holders do not seem convinced and we have seen solid selling in pre-market activity. In the current environment this is quite brave as the chances of a continuation of the bear squeeze seem quite good.
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Indices Spread Betting, 1 Apr 08
Indices are just about holding on to the levels of the past few days and it was quite pleasing to see the turnaround in the FTSE yesterday after the initial 100 point drop and the ensuing rally actually peaking in positive territory. The last five days have seen our quoted closing price on the FTSE encompassed by just 50 points and the actual trading ranges seem to be quietening down a bit.
Since the Bear Stearns problem/solution there seems to have been a hiatus in bad news but the speculation that US manufacturing probably contracted in the last month comes as something of a surprise. If the industrial sector cannot make it self more attractive on a global basis with the dollar now 20% lower than this time last year the arguments about the attractions of weaker currencies suddenly look less certain.
The indices are all looking to open slightly to the down side this morning with the FTSE called 15 points off at 5685 and the Dow down at 12225 off some 35 pips. This is not exactly significant but is slightly disappointing as the Nikkei and Hang Seng put in solid trading performances overnight. Resistance in the FTSE (as mentioned yesterday once more) remains at the 5720 level and after the strong bounce yesterday traders will be hoping that sellers will become nervous below 5630.
Indices Spread Betting, 31 Mar 08
Slightly disappointing on the open after last weeks reasonable performance as the fall out in the US markets on Friday evening and the drop in the Far East this morning have taken their toll.
The FTSE’s opening trading range has us off about 50 pips at 5640 and dealers are nervously waiting to see if this weakness follows through into the late morning early afternoon sessions.
Sad to say but I was feeling quite bullish on the train in this morning and was almost tempted to buy a bit of stock. Fortunately the demands of writing this comment have kept me away from the dealing floor! The banking sector is beginning to weaken again under a plethora of speculative bad news. Punters are trying to pick a bottom at the moment (with little success it must be said) and since starting this comment the index has fallen another 50 pips to now be sitting some 100 points off on Friday’s close.
The 5720 resistance level, mentioned in previous comments, has held again and we are now focussing on the lower end of the trading range at around 5450.
'Indices Spread Bets April 2008' by DB, updated 11-Apr-08
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