Indices Platform
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Quick and simple answers to the most common Indices questions, plus regular Indices market updates:
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Indices Spread Trading
A regular Indices spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Indices spread trading update, click here.
Indices Spread Trading, 9 Nov 07
After a good bounce off the lows last night with the US indices it looks like we could finish the week with a positive move from the FTSE. In a speech that once again gave nothing away, Bernanke was less than forthcoming with his remarks on growth and the future path of interest rates. Nevertheless, the US markets took what he said as an indication that it’s more likely that there will be a further cut, if the current economic climate continues (resilient growth and further credit woes).
It's been a turbulent week with the banking sector continuing to suffer during these uncertain times. World indices have been remarkably choppy in recent weeks and even though there are no real signs that the upward trend has come to an end, the FTSE's rejection of the 6700-6750 area on several occasions suggests that we maybe near the top of a four and a half year rally.
For those who like technical indicators, yesterday's move created a hammer candlestick which is often a bullish sign in a downtrend (which we've seen over the last month), so we could see a move back to test the year's highs in the coming days.
Indices Spread Trading, 8 Nov 07
Confusion over the closing price of the FTSE yesterday didn't help matters as the LSE struggled to uncross many constituents during the closing auction and it wasn't until after 6pm that the official close was printed at 6385.
The FTSE support that I mentioned yesterday proved very temporary as we call the market down as much as 75 points just above the 6300 level. 6290 prove to be the next support level, Capital Spreads clients certainly seem to think so. It’s been all buyers this morning in the hope of a bounce. Clients with most of spread betting companies have had a torrid time over the last couple of days and are finding it difficult to cope with the volatility. Hardly surprising following yesterday's sharp move lower by Wall Street.
Indices Spread Trading, 7 Nov 07
The FTSE seems to have found a little bit of support yesterday. That seems to be continuing today as cautious buyers are tempted back into the market. It certainly looks like our Capital Spreads clients believe that the rout is over as the buyers take over. November is historically a positive month for the equity markets, however it seems that the market isn't yet willing to make a concerted push back towards the year's highs. The over riding concern for technical traders is that the FTSE 100 has failed more than twice to trade above the 6700-6740 area and each attempt has been met by heavy selling.
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Indices Spread Trading, 6 Nov 07
The FTSE having traded as low as 6410 yesterday is now up at 6500 but not exactly making much further progress in early action. 6500 although obviously a psychological level has proved in the past to be better support than resistance so if we clear above here there is not much in the way of initial resistance to prevent a move higher. That said there is a distinct lack of enthusiasm amongst our punters for further buying as too many have been burnt by getting enthusiastic above this level.
This may be the biggest barrier to further progress in the various western indices as investors worry about being caught up in yet another fall out rather than concentrating on value.
Indices Spread Trading, 5 Nov 07
A nasty kick in the teeth this morning for traders who went to bed on Friday expecting a nice opening of around 6565 in the FTSE this morning only for Citigroup to put a spanner in the works over the w/e.
Now we have the dubious pleasure of waiting to see whether Ms Whitney of CIBC (who started this latest sell off and, effectively, Mr Prince's resignation) was on the button with her estimation that Citi has a serious lack of cash. Whilst Northern Rock is an interesting footnote, in world terms it is a minor player. If Citigroup now starts to have liquidity problems the consequences could be truly global (if you were a bank treasurer would you increase lending lines to them?).
The FTSE is opening down at 6490-6491 perilously close to closing support at 6485 and intraday at 6470 and 6445. It is difficult to argue that investors should be piling in at this point and if we slip lower it is more likely to be on the basis of lack of buyers than on outright selling.
The Dow (Wall Street) had managed to put in a very nice rally from the NFP rally/slump as buyers chanced their arm once more. Having at one point been some 150 lower on the day the index managed to close around 50 higher. The opening levels this morning will be slightly unnerving for dealers as the Far East and Europe drag us down. It is normally a good bet to oppose any big non US time move in US markets as Americans seem to take it as an almost personal affront for foreigners to sell off their market. So with the market off 120 points at 13495-13499 we are seeing solid buying from punters.
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Indices Spread Trading, 2 Nov 07
When I talked yesterday about the FTSE looking to reject the 6700 level once more I have to admit I was not expecting a 170 point reversal in the next 24 hours (!) but here we are again. The opening call on the FTSE 100 spread betting market this morning is down at 6530-6531 some 55 off from yesterday’s frankly pretty dire performance. As mentioned clients were heavy sellers in early activity yesterday but after the initial 50 point drop buyers started to come in and the last few hundred points drop on the Dow made for quite a grim trading session.
Traders will be looking for support at 6520 which may give hard pressed bulls some cheer but if we drift through here we may be looking for the trendline and closing support at 6490 and then the major 6400 region. To the up side which, if we can get away from the sudden pessimism that seems to have sprung up, is just as likely to appeal to dealers as there is quite a bit of congestion resistance between 6540 and 6580. This should have been a support region but we have opened up today straight through it and out the other side.
Indices Spread Trading, 1 Nov 07
Yesterday saw strong buying throughout the session as the market recovered from the initial weakness but now all we are seeing is selling! The FTSE 100 was expected to open some 10 pips higher this morning but managed to come in 10 lower. It briefly bounced before sellers took hold and now we are in danger of giving up on the 6700 level once again. At 6701-6702 as I write it is becoming ever more apparent that investors are not happy with markets above here. This is now the umpteenth time in the past five months where we have spent some of the trading day above the 6700 level only for the market to eventually give up.
Indices Spread Trading, 31 Oct 07
The FTSE is slowly sinking away from the highs as investors seem to be beginning to wonder at the sense in probing the highs at this time. Although returns and margins appear good for corporate UK the storm clouds can be seen on the horizon in the US. US housing data yesterday made for grim reading. So whilst the economy seems to be continuing (on the whole) to be ignoring this big reduction in average wealth, if the slump in prices goes on for much longer consumers will be hard pressed to keep buying.
That said, at the moment, we can look forward to a possible bit of fun at six fifteen this afternoon as the Fed makes its latest prognostication on rates. For many years the Fed's intentions have been generally signaled well in advance of each meeting but this one is genuinely an unknown. Dealers will not only be eying the actual move but also the comment that goes with it. Whilst the ongoing housing debacle would normally indicate an easing was required, the rest of the economy seems to be doing very nicely, thank you. So any indication of an easing bias will give the bulls just the jolt they are looking for. The problem for punters is the risk that the markets may have been "buying the rumour" and could well "sell the fact". And there is always the fear that if the Fed sees the need for an easing that there may be something nasty on the horizon that the markets have not taking note of just yet.
Anyway, we are seeing the FTSE opening quietly around 10 points lower at 6650-6651in very quiet activity. Volumes across the markets has been very weak for the past few days as we approached the highs and this has caused some worries that the appetite for stock up here may be slackening. Punters appear to be feeling that this is merely a pull back in a bull move as we are seeing a general drift of client buying in the FTSE 100, Dax and American indices. 6655 to 6660 is quite a crucial level and dealers will be hoping that we close above here this afternoon but (of course) with the FTSE shutting up shop at 16.30 and the Fed move at 18.15 that means that the close this evening will probably be significantly different to the open tomorrow. There will be a concerted move out of exposure in the run up to the US announcement and we expect only the more aggressive traders to be risking the markets.
Indices Spread Trading, 30 Oct 07
This time the FTSE did not even attempt to have a look at the 6750 resistance. It failed to make any headway on the estimated pre-open levels at 6725 and then traded in one of the tightest ranges we have seen since the July fall out.
With the Far East having one of its quietest days for months we are opening just a tad lower this morning at around 6690 off 15 pips in line with the slightly weaker US and European markets. There is some minor support at 6685 and then at 6670 but if we drift below 6640 then we may see some more concerted profit taking. The comment from yesterday still holds good, the last three times we attempted to break above 6700 the market reacted with three big falls. But if we can close above 6750 then we may well be off to the races again.
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Indices Spread Trading, 29 Oct 07
Markets are off to the races this morning with the FTSE called up 55 points at around 6715 the Hang Seng up yet another 1000 points(!!) Gold zoning in on $800, Nymex Oil blasting over $92 and Sterling now sniffing at 2.0600 for the first time since the fall back in July.
'Indices Platform' by DB, updated 09-Nov-07
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