Indices Futures Trading
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Indices Spread Trading
A regular Indices spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Indices spread trading update, click here.
Indices Spread Betting Comment, 7 Dec 07
Another move higher in the US has given the bulls the upper hand this morning. Needless to say after the volatility of the last few days it would be premature to think that the market will sit at these levels, especially as we have non-farm payroll figure later. Yesterday's move by the BoE seemed to catch a few people off guard, which seems strange considering the market had rallied in the previous session. A rally driven by banking stocks. With the decision going in favour of equities yesterday another positive piece of data today would be required to test the year's highs. Clients remain skeptical selling into the strength and it wouldn't seem an unreasonable view to take considering the news flow over the last few days.
Non-farms will be released at 13h30 so its all hands on deck and a few analysts have been revising their estimates higher. A figure of around 100k would come as no surprise and anything too high may cause people to think there's room to keep interest rates on hold rather than cut and we might see a little profit taking. The worst case scenario would be if the figure came in much lower, the unemployment rate rose and the hourly earnings also came in higher. The higher earnings and higher unemployment would be the first indication that stagflation is a real threat and this could certainly spoil the party for the bulls. Everyone watches the headline figure when the data is released and then picks up on the other pieces afterwards. So a lower headline figure might be construed as a signal for lower rates and send the indices higher, but more likely than not, this is giving us the first signs that the US economy is on the back foot.
At the time of writing we are calling the Wall Street spread betting market to open lower around 50 points lower at 13570 which just shows how nervy the market is about today's figure. It is seen as a real precursor to next Tuesday's interest rate decision in the US where the market expects a further cut of 0.25%, with some hoping for more.
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Indices Spread Betting Comment, 6 Dec 07
A whippy session last night in the US ended well with Wall Street ending on a high. The optimism felt in the US is clearly contagious as European indices are higher this morning. Despite all the doom and gloom reported by retailers things seem to be going in the right direction for equity markets at the moment. The underlying fact that there is still low unemployment has remained the support for equities and, to assist the bulls, Oil and metal prices have tempered for the time being. Looking at the FTSE the 6500 marker offered little resistance and the next level on most people's radars is 6650. Clients have been slightly caught of guard in the last couple of days believing that the news flow was heavily stacked in favour of the bears, so it would seem that many are hoping for rates to remain on hold to take a little froth off today's and yesterday's moves.
The economic releases today and tomorrow could easily shape the direction for indices into the year end. The latest moves higher only prove people's optimism about the prospect of cut from the BoE today. There is certainly mounting pressure for them to take action and its no wonder that members of the MPC admit that their decisions in the coming months will be more difficult than any they've made in the past 10 years. The majority still believe we'll see them hold, partially because they're playing the waiting game to see what will happen during the rapidly approaching wage rounds.
Indices Spread Betting Comment, 5 Dec 07
Markets are looking a little happier this morning with the FTSE called some 30 pips up and the Dow regaining much of yesterdays lost ground in overnight Far East activity.
The FTSE continues to be far more volatile than US markets with the high/low range for the FTSE 100 being 115 points. The Dow, twice the size of the FTSE 100, is only putting in 90 point swings. The FTSE 250 fell below the 10200 marker, a 300 point drop.
The performance of the FTSE 250 bears some watching as they are now at around the lows for the year (again), down 10% from last years close. The FTSE 100 is still in positive territory by some 120 points. The lows for the FTSE 100 were back in August at 5825 but the FTSE 250 is now well below here as investors quietly pull out of UK focused stock. Whilst the major stock index is mainly focused on foreign earnings the percentage of overseas earnings in the 250 index is not as high and it is educational to see how the less heralded stocks are doing.
Banking stocks remain under pressure and yields on many are now hovering at the 7% level again. Investors have seen this as a good point to buy in recent weeks but the continued return to the downside is beginning to worry some of the Financial Spreads clients. It appears that there is a solid section of major stock holders who are not convinced by the 'value' argument and are happy to sell out even at these returns.
The last two days has seen some pull back from the recent 400 point rally. However today sees a return to the upside (at least for the open). The first hour of trading is becoming increasingly volatile and punters are starting to focus on the opportunities available in just this period of the trading session. The last seven days (and 11 out of the last 12) has seen the first hour’s direction reversed in the remainder of the session. That has been noticed by a few punters.
Indices Spread Betting Comment, 4 Dec 07
The FTSE is called just a tad lower on the off this morning at around the 6380 level and punters remain on the Short side having ridden the fall yesterday. The markets appeared to be calmer yesterday but the high/low range was still over 90 points which hardly a comatose level of trading. Mining and Retail stocks were the losers and Banking the gainers overall. The high street remains a bit of a battle ground and the remaining sectors are not exactly over extended which will give bulls optimism.
Today sees almost no economic data aside from EU producer prices and very little corporate news out of the UK majors so there may be a quiet opening in the early session.
The Dow looked to have weathered the afternoon sell off but the late evening saw the market give up some 70 points to close near the lows for the day. The total range for the index was just 110 points only slightly greater than the 50% smaller and more comprehensive FTSE100 which was something of a relief for our hard pressed dealers. Today doesn’t look much more inspiring and there are hopes for a calmer run up to the Christmas trading period.
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Indices Spread Betting Comment, 3 Dec 07
So the markets continue to wing all over the place and the Dow made no exception on Friday night falling and then rising 120 points in the last two hours of trading. Not one for the faint hearted.
The Far East has been pretty mixed this morning and this has caused some profit taking in US futures in early activity which means that the FTSE is being called about 10 lower on the off. The FTSE 100 spread is around 6420-6421 a mere 380 pips up on the lows of last week. I would like to say that our clients called the recent move higher correctly but the sharp falls last Monday brought the bears out to play which caused quite a bit of pain on Wednesday and Friday.
Sellers remain in the majority with all our most popular indices (Dow 30, S&P 500, FTSE 100 and Dax 30) showing clients holding strong overall short positions. The opening levels today will be give a bit more confidence to the doom mongers. The report from Morgan Stanley over the weekend on the state of the UK economy will not be giving sellers cause for concern.
The analysts have commented that the UK has wasted 15 years of growth by splurging the wealth created on useless government expenditure. The Public deficit is one of the worst in the OECD and this is after years of growth AND with one of the highest tax regimes in the western world. If there is a slowdown the governments finances will very ,very, swiftly turn into a disaster story. If the Public sector deficit is not brought under control Gordon Brown risks going down in history as one of the worst Chancellors of the Exchequer ever and probably one of the shortest serving Prime Ministers.
Resistance is at the 6455 level, which was confirmed by being the recorded high on Friday. It will probably take a serious FTSE assault to get through that level without some help from the US and Continental indices. Early German trading is sending the Dax slightly lower but market action is some of the quietest that we’ve seen recently. FTSE support is at 6400 which proved in September and October to be a good buying opportunity but it must be said that the extreme oscillation between bull and bear activity is making it difficult to call. One thing that is coming through is that, in recent trading sessions, once the trend has been established it has (in the main) continued throughout the session.
Indices Spread Betting Comment, 30 Nov 07
Quotes are up again today after the Far East managed a good performance and the FTSE 100 is called at 6365-6366. That’s up around 15 points. We now look to Europe and the US for the impetuous with a raft of EU inflation and consumer confidence numbers this morning and then the Chicago PMI at 14.45 this afternoon. This has been a very unpredictable month with massive falls, rises, reversals etc etc on an almost daily basis and whilst this is good for trade volumes overall investor confidence gets dented too many times. As we now run into the Christmas trading period we might expect a slowdown. However it must be remembered that the 'non-Christian' financial markets are growing ever larger so we can foresee that even without the input of London and New York markets will probably be just as busy and unpredictable.
The FTSE is now at the top of the 'lower' of the two trading ranges that have dominated the UK for the last year or so. The higher range 6400 to 6775 may prove difficult to get to but the markets do (generally) rally towards the end of the year so bulls will be optimistic. The lower range around 6000 to 6400 has seen the greatest volatility as bulls and bears have battled it out. But, as mentioned, a few days ago the opportunities available down at 6000 have prompted some spectacular rallies as long term investors have sought out value stock.
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Indices Spread Betting Comment, 29 Nov 07
The FTSE has fallen from its highs this morning. It started today's trading session higher following a big rally in the US last night. However it doesn't look like the FTSE will be able to avoid posting its worst November in history. Currently over 6% lower for the month, this has not been the best of times for investors and there has been a great deal of talk about "flight to safety" with the utility and pharmaceutical sectors performing better than most. Clients remain bearish however, largely sellers of the FTSE expecting tougher times ahead as the year draws to a close. Despite the positive news from the likes of Alliance & Leicester this morning and upbeat news from John Lewis earlier this week, financial stocks have continued to be a burden on the indices. This will not be a month that investors will wish to remember and they can only hope that their fortunes will turn around in the run up to Christmas.
At the time of writing US futures are pointing to a lower start this afternoon and we are calling Wall Street to open around 40 points lower at 13250. 13h30 and 15h00 London time sees GDP, personal consumption and housing figures released in the US. It's one thing to hint at possible rate cuts next year, but another to say that the breadth and depth of the credit crunch could cause much slower growth than expected next year.
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Indices Spread Betting Comment, 28 Nov 07
Equity markets are very jittery this morning and although they are trading pretty much unchanged with the FTSE spread at 6138-6139 after the first hour we are seeing very sharp shifts on a moments notice. 10 - 15 pip moves every few minutes. Dealers are getting in and out very quickly as the temptation to take any quick profit kicks in. In this environment the probability increases towards a sharp shift lower as investors decline to take on new risk. The fear will increase that if there is any large surplus of unsold stock that stock price could subside.
On the plus side is the undoubted value that is now presenting itself. Banks always loath to lower dividends and yields on most of the majors are now well above 6% and threatening on dips to go above 7%. With rates at 5.75% and at the moment unlikely to go higher this makes long term value almost a certainty, it is just the short term worry that is holding the big boys back. Plus, of course, the fact that they are probably already holding large portfolios of banking sector equities and all very much under water. And as mentioned yesterday any print in the 6000's does seem to bring out the buyers.
Punters are now in two minds. We’re seeing buying of the FTSE and European indices whilst sellers are much more noticeable in the US markets. This is obviously a natural factor of the physical location of most of our clients but it does give a general indication of the perceived fear for the US economy over the European.
Indices Spread Betting Comment, 27 Nov 07
So, these days it isn't the US cavalry that comes to the rescue it is the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority.
After a truly appalling day on the markets the Middle Eastern saviours are either getting in at the bottom or catching a falling knife. The cost to Citigroup for the cash injection seems to be quite extreme. Selling securities that possibly pay a yield of some 11% compares to US Government 2 year yields of sub 3% an 8%, plus premium. The company has obviously run into rather a bigger capital adequacy problem than was first thought and this should put it back into line. The difficulty now is that the bank will increasingly be seen as an Oil owned institution which may not go down too well in its US heartland.
That being said the reaction this morning is rather heartwarming (especially for Capital Spreads clients who were sitting on some very nasty longs at the close last night) with the Dow being called over 100 points up from the close and the FTSE 'only' 40 off at 6138-6139 after closing in after hours action down at 6090.
There is solid support in the 6000's from where (aside from one trading spike in the August fallout) we have bounced quite strongly on many occasions. Whether investors will cling on this time remains to be seen but the repeated failures seem to be beginning to worry buyers. We are not seeing quite so much 'bottom picking' this morning,
'Indices Futures Trading' by DB, updated 07-Dec-07
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