Indices Financial Spread Trading June 2008
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Indices Spread Trading
A regular Indices spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Indices spread trading update, click here.
Spread Betting on Indices, 20 Jun 08
Markets continue to drift as dealers worry about the state of growth, inflation prospects, the trade and budget deficits, credit crunch, rate expectations, house prices, hair loss and who will be kicked out next from Big Brother 53.
Every time we look like getting a bit of buying potential another wave of sellers pounces on the small up tick in prices and slams us back down again. I noticed that fund managers and analysts were now overwhelmingly negative on equity markets, which is probably as good a buy signal as any other given that a recent analysis of 6000 recommendations from various market professionals only resulted in 1600 correct ones. A monkey tossing a coin would have done better.
Spread Betting on Indices, 19 Jun 08
Precious little reason to get involved on the buy side these days has left the FTSE 500 points off from the highs of last month. But with the foreign legions of mining and oil still propping us up to a certain extent there have been moments of light. Unfortunately for the commodities markets the rising value of the extracted material is actually starting to impact on the bottom line of the companies themselves. Wages, fuel, taxation, contract renegotiations etc. are all cutting into what should be an even greater boom time than it already is.
Punters have been making hay on the move in the FTSE and Sterling over the past few weeks basically selling the UK index and trading the ranges on the Pound/Dollar cross. Every time the pound looks to be in danger of a fall to below $1.94 buyers come in and take it back up to around $1.98 to $2.00. Cable has been in a falling wedge formation since November last year and we are now approaching the narrow part of the ‘wedge’. Analysts will be looking for a break out (currently around $1.9730 to the up side and $1.9380 to the down) to potentially give an indication of the next major move direction.
Unfortunately, whilst money has been easier to come by in currency and indices markets things have not been so favourable in others. Many have been trying to ‘catch a falling knife’ in the banking sector. As we fall lower and lower so the small retail buyers picks up more and more. These positions are now of the ‘long term variety’ as investors decide to keep hold and put them in their portfolios, accept the yield and await a possible second coming.
Spread Betting on Indices, 18 Jun 08
The markets this morning are in the red and a lot worse than our initial call of 5850 on the open. The FTSE 100 is currently trading at 5820 at the time of writing.
Banking stocks are suffering after a good run yesterday and Sainsburys has not helped matters by announcing that sales growth has slowed, dragging down Tesco in the process. Sainsbury, a bellwether for supermarkets, has disappointed and is further evidence that retailers are feeling the pinch of a consumer who has increasingly coming under pressure from higher living expenses. On top of this retailers input costs have been going through the roof and it is been a brave call this morning from them to say that they will meet their full year target.
The market has had quite a fall from its May high, off some 8% and so far this month the trend looks set to continue. However in the last few days it does look like the bulls have been attempting to reverse that trend. This is not the case this morning and there is a feeling that yesterday's reversal around lunchtime showed the bulls that the bears are still in control for now.
There's a real absence of economic data for the remainder of the day and so far things have been relatively quiet this morning. At the time of writing Capital Spreads is calling Wall Street to open flat at 12,160.
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Spread Betting on Indices, 17 Jun 08
Markets appear to be on the up this morning with strong buying across the board. Dealers are picking up banking and retail stock in early trade and we are seeing some solid selling out of long positions in Mining and Oil stock. It appears that the latest move higher in Mining stock on renewed takeover rumour (any investigation into this? Of course not, the price went up, everyone is happy!) is enough for many of our clients.
Spread Betting on Indices, 16 Jun 08
Last week saw mixed indices results with the S&P unchanged and the Dow Jones 0.8% finishing higher.
In Europe, the Dax 30 dropped 0.6% and, thanks to the combination of the banks, house builders and a high commodity sector weighting the, FTSE 100 fell by 1.8%.
With high inflation stalking the tiger economies the Nikkei 225 closed down 3.6% whilst the Hang Seng fell 7.4%.
Spread Betting on Indices, 13 Jun 08
The markets today will remain somnolent until the spark of US data this afternoon. Dealers will be hopeful that the evening fall in the US markets (after the earlier rally) will not impact the opening level of the FTSE 100…too much. With little news out of the UK the main influences today are likely to be external.
Spread Betting on Indices, 12 Jun 08
The markets are once again on the back foot and the FTSE 100 is looking a tad sick at the moment. With the dollar rallying last night (a bit) there is a chance that there will be weakness in the Oil and Mining sectors to go along with the weakness in the Banking, Property, Building and Retail sectors to give us the potential for a clean losing straight flush. The best advice (as it has been for many months now) is to sit on your hands and keep your money in your bank account. Especially as you can now get rather a nice returns if you shop around. Even solid banks are paying well over the odds for folding stuff.
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Spread Betting on Indices, 11 Jun 08
The FTSE 100 is opening on the side of the angels...even if it is from yesterday’s lowest close since the end of March. Punters are buying into the index in early action, as they did late yesterday afternoon, in anticipation of a bullish reaction to the recent value falls. However, in truth, this is likely to be very short term trading with the BOE now sliding into the ECB’s hawkish view point. You need to have a very good telescope to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
There is good support in the FTSE at 5815 and minor resistance to the upside at 5875, 5915 and 5950. The support is rather of the terminal variety though in that if it gives way and we close lower there is precious little support, technically, until 5680 and then all the way down to around 5480. If (and to be honest it is a big IF) metals and oil start to look tired the crutch that has been holding up the senior UK index could start to look very worm eaten indeed.
Spread Betting on Indices, 9 Jun 08
The FTSE at least is likely to be doing ok as both Oil and Mining stocks get a huge boost from the massive commodities rally in the States on Friday evening.
It took a while for the markets to cotton on to the jump in unemployment numbers on Friday after the Non-Farm Payroll figure came in quite subdued at just minus 49K. Quite how a move of just 49K in the NFP can add up to over 800K on the actual Unemployment data I will leave to other more astute commentators but whatever the reason the 0.5% jump is the biggest one month in over 28 years.
Due to the weak US Unemployment numbers the Dow ended the week 3.3% down. The FTSE and The DAX 30 were effected by the US and ended 3% and almost 5% down respectively while the Nikkei 225 ended 2.2% down on the week.
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Indices Financial Spread Trading June 2008' by DB, updated 20-Jun-08
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