Today will see the next test with the Non-Farm Payroll number out of the States at 13.30 this afternoon. The expectation is for the number to come in at negative 60k. However with a new scent of confidence around even a poor number may be taken in the markets stride. In the meantime we do not expect much activity in the morning session after the opening levels are secured. The call on the FTSE 100 is for a rally to around 6025, 30 points higher than the close yesterday. The support at 5950 remains in place even though we traded lower intraday.
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Spread Betting on Indices, 5 Jun 08
Sitting with my head dealer yesterday afternoon we were concerned about the closing level on the FTSE. A break and close below 5940 would have us scurrying for cover as technically this is quite a substantial support level. Trading yesterday went below this level several times but by the close we had bounced once more and were sitting (if not pretty) at least still in the sunshine. This morning sees more early weakness after the US drifted in late action but Capital Spreads clients seem confident that a new bear phase can be avoided and we have seen quite substantial buying below 6000.
Spread Betting on Indices, 4 Jun 08
Today’s markets are starting off on the weaker side after yesterday’s late spike took the FTSE up to 6055. With metals and oil having a rare weak session last night the golden boys of the index (mining and oil) might struggle on the off this morning and the call is for the senior index to come in 30 points lower at 6025.
Spread Betting on Indices, 3 Jun 08
Not a good start to the day as virtually every index is called lower and the sentiment appears to be dragging by the day. This might be a good moment to put a small toe in the water as everything seems so grim it is almost unreal.
Last night after the Dow Jones had managed to rebound from its lows their was a feeling that possibly we might be in for a bit of bounce in Europe but the tidal wave of bad banking news shows no signs of abating as analysts fall over themselves to slash banking price targets and the S&P rating agency continue to do their 'shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted' act and have put a swathe of top tier US banks on Credit watch.
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Spread Betting on Indices, 30 May 08
In the markets the FTSE made a brave attempt to get above 6120 yesterday but the effort final proved too much and, as the banks sank into ever lower valuations, dealers eventually sold us back down pretty much our starting point. On the other hand the support level at 6050 held pretty well. The attraction of this region between 6050 and 6090 over the past few months has been marked. A close below the support might indicate a return to a bearish mood but dealers have been doing very nicely over the past few days just trading the ranges.
Banking stock is looking ever more disastrous. Bradford and Bingley is now only a short sneeze away from its Right Issue level at 82p and although the issue is underwritten by UBS and Citigroup (who must at the time have thought it was money for old rope) the stock is being rightly hammered for the Boards disingenuous comments over the past few months. “Fully funded till 2009” was the comment a couple of months ago. Outright denial of the Rights Issue rumours just two days prior to the announcement…have left the Chairman and the CEO in a very dodgy position. B&B is now valued at less than £600m which must call into question its very existence. It would only take one pessimistic BBC news story to have the depositor lines going round the block (aka Northern Rock) once more.
Spread Betting on Indices, 29 May 08
Markets today look to be on the up after the Far East rallied strongly after the US Durable Goods number came in strongly positive at up 2.5% rather than the small 0.5% decline that was expected. However the sentiment and headlines in the UK will probably be more affected by the announcement from Nationwide that house prices dropped 2.5% in just one month, making for a 4.4% decline over the year.
The FTSE 100 is expected to open around 30 pips higher at close to 6100 and bulls will be hoping for a test of the short term trend resistance at 6110 in early action. The index had a series of attempts to break below 6050 over the past few days but all were easily beaten off.
Spread Betting on Indices, 28 May 08
Quite an interesting day yesterday on the markets with Crude Oil slumping to...errr...just $128, Gold dropping $20 creating, one might have hoped, an opportunity for a small rally elsewhere. Unfortunately nobody was buying this small piece of good news and the world’s indices and currencies did, well in the end, pretty much nothing at all.
Today looks to be rather dull as well with most indices called a tad higher. British Energy announced a drop in earnings by some 28% after plant closures affected revenue but this is unlikely to dampen the ardour of the, rumoured, trio of suitors looking to have their evil way with her.
We will await the Durable Goods numbers from the States this afternoon before any real action will probably occur. Most commentators expect a bad figure so we may get a small relief rally if it is not as awful as expected!
Spread Betting on Indices, 27 May 08
Looking at last week: Indices plummeted from Monday's 4-month highs with the Dow 30 falling by nearly 4% on the week. The S&P 500 and FTSE 100 fell by 3.5% and the Dax 30 by 3%. The Nikkei 225's 1.5% fall was less because it closed ahead of major falls across markets on Friday.
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Indices Financial Spread Betting June 2008' by DB, updated 06-Jun-08
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