Indices February Spread Trading
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Indices Spread Trading
A regular Indices spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Indices spread trading update, click here.
Indices Spread Betting, 29 Feb 08
Another 100+ point movement day on the FTSE yesterday as the markets rejected the break out (again) and slumped back below 6000. To their credit the Financial Spreads clients never believed in the break out and sold virtually anything above the 6000 level and were rewarded in spades with the fall out.
Today we are looking at further opening falls with early the FTSE spread trading at 5945 - 5946 another 15 points lower. The volumes on the exchanges remains weak which is causing such heavy moves as market makers swiftly adjust prices. In conversation with some of the quoting brokers it appears that they are running as flat books as possible and attempting to tempt closing deals on any new positions with swift price action. How long this situation can continue is open to question but the freezing of the money markets means that nobody is keen to have to go to the banks for funds (just in case it is refused). A tale of a full, or curtailed, lending line can be death to a broking unit.
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Indices Spread Betting, 28 Feb 08
Yesterday was a classic in today's trading environments with the FTSE falling over 100 points in morning and early afternoon action only to reverse virtually the whole move and close just 10 pips lower on the day.
Early indications this morning are for a weaker open on the back of minor falls in Japan and late weakness in the US. Although, on the plus side, the RBS results will give the banking sector yet another boost after coming in well above analyst’s expectations. But the number crunchers will probably want to see more information on the progress of the ABN acquisition before hanging out the bunting just yet. The FTSE 100 spread is coming out at 6046 - 6047 which is disappointing as the eventual close at 6076 was above the resistance / support level mentioned in yesterdays comment at 6065.
Indices Spread Betting, 27 Feb 08
Today sees the FTSE looking to break above 6100 with the opening FTSE 100 spread at 6099-6100. The 6000 level, which had caused so many problems to defeat in previous rallies gave up without a fight yesterday as the Banking, Mining, Energy and Pharmaceutical sectors put on a display. The close above 6065 will be giving the bears some cause for concern as this has proved, over the past six months, to be something of a critical support/resistance level.
Clients were strong sellers all day yesterday and unfortunately this has not left them in a strong position this morning.
Indices Spread Betting, 26 Feb 08
At the moment, the 6000 level on the FTSE 100 seems to resemble our current government and its tax policies. Every time we look like seeing a new policy, they just turn the other way and head towards new lows in the polls. It's rather like the FTSE 100 Index chart of the last 5 weeks, where we've made three attempts at getting back above the psychological 6000, but keep rejecting it. But despite all the troubles and woes of the equity market, the technical argument is that a close above the 6100 level will be a positive sign. Even yesterday, the market's volatile session saw it turn its back on 6000 in the morning until it made its second attempt at breeching it towards the close. We are calling the market to open some 15 points higher at 6014. But like many of the opening calls recently, this currently unpredictable market could quickly make up its own mind and trade way off this mark.
This morning some of the European banks seem to have released some upbeat results which will only fuel the bulls into believing that the worst is over. However, one can't but think that they're just pulling the wool. Despite the recent confidence boosting news flow the fall out from the credit crunch isn't over. Standard Chartered, the only bank to have posted a gain in 2007, is expected to release full year figures today in another big week for the banking sector. HBOS are reporting company results tomorrow and RBS on Thursday. With the announcements of increased dividends for major banks the risk they are taking on is doing so at the expense of their margins. The mass selling of the sector seems to have stopped, but it'll be a long time before we see the dizzy highs they reached in the middle of last year.
There's little in the way of UK economic data today, but with many of the Capital Spreads Account holders becoming ever more knowledgeable in global economic trends, many of them will watch the German IFO business climate data at 9am this morning. It is unsurprising that a decline is expected from 107.9 to 105.8, considering the bashing banks there have taken and that the Euro can't seem to shrug off its all time highs. After that we get inflationary data followed by consumer confidence released across the pond. If you asked any American shopper (or indeed British for that matter) what they believed to be the current state of affairs with the economy they'll probably give you exactly the same answer as the highest paid economists are expecting from the data later today. Prices are getting higher and confidence is falling. Further evidence that the US is in a recession and the UK can't be far behind.
Indices Spread Betting, 25 Feb 08
The huge rally in the US on late Friday night coupled with the Far Eastern response will mean that the FTSE is being called some 75 points higher this morning. Hopes that the markets might be about to quieten down have been disappointed on several occasions recently and an opening call of 75 points up might be considered an odd moment to talk of it once more. However...whilst the daily trading ranges continue to be quite violent the actual theoretical closing levels of the index when taking into account ADR activity on the US markets after the 4.30 UK close has indicated quite a tight range in the past week or so. The quoted 21.00 closing range for last week was covered by just 30 points.
Early calls on the FTSE 100 Spreads are at 5960 – 5961...right back in the groove and giving the bulls something to get their teeth into again. The 6000 level has been a bit of a killer so far this month with strong selling every time we get there. Again we will probably attract quite a few sellers if we approach the number. On the basis that the markets will move in the direction that causes the greatest amount of pain to the greatest number of people (!) for a break above 6000 to become sustainable we will need some solid short position creation.
This week continues to be a big company reporting time with RBS, HBOS, William Hill, Barratt, Persimmon, Ladbrokes, etc coming with interims or full years. The banks seem to be falling over themselves to point out how well they are doing but a better picture of the UK may be taken (sadly) from the performance of the bookies.
Indices Spread Betting, 22 Feb 08
The markets are beginning to look a tad grim again as the US and the Far East traders do their best to take the shine off the start of the week and the FTSE is trading some 30 points off in mid morning activity at around 5900.
The Far Eastern markets have now, apparently, had seven losing weeks in a row, which must be some kind of record, and this is difficult for the Europeans to just ignore. The FTSE 100 having rejected (for the third time this month) the 6000 level will now have the bears looking for further declines as buyers are obviously hard to come by above that level. We really do need to close above 6050 to have a chance of disrupting the negative trends. If we close below 5920 today and the US fails to put in a good performance in the evening session then sellers will probably start to sharpen their knives.
It is very difficult to cut through this general air of gloom that seems to have settled on analysts and fund managers. Having been doing the rounds this week with the Capital Spreads road-show the complete absence of optimism is almost palpable. These are not people who are natural sellers and so will not be going in to liquidate positions but often falling markets can be generated by a disinclination to come in on the buy side. As smaller investors reduce fund inflows / sit on their hands it can actually have the effect that we are all hoping will not occur, a falling market.
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Indices Spread Betting, 21 Feb 08
The FTSE is bouncing (yet again) after the late, late show from Wall Street turned a 100 point fall in the Dow into a 100 point rally. The FTSE Spread Betting quote, as I write, is 5929 - 5930 up 36 points. In truth the rally seems tired already and we have only been going for 20 minutes! The company reporting season has only just begun but there are very few ‘good’ stories out there. If we believe in tough times for 2008 then we can hardly expect much better this time next year. The choppy market activity looks set to continue for some time yet. Support at 5700 and resistance at 6000, a nice wide 300 point range, seems to be containing expectations for the moment.
Indices Spread Betting, 20 Feb 08
It seems that the FTSE is rejecting the 6000 level as decisively as it did at the beginning of the month. Having given the bulls something to cheer about in early action we ran out of steam at around 6030 before a late sell off took us down to close at 5968 (still 20 up on the day).
No such happy beginnings this morning after big falls in the Far East and a miserable performance from the States in the evening’s action. Our call on the open is for the market to come in some 60 points lower at around 5910. At least the Financial Spreads Account holders should be happy having disbelieved the move all of yesterday and loaded up on substantial down bets throughout the day.
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Indices Spread Betting, 19 Feb 08
Markets seem poised for any type of news at the moment as the rumour of an increased dividend from Barclay’s and Lloyd’s banks launched the bulls into an orgy of buying. The rally in the FTSE of 159 points was a welcome fillip to dealers who had feared that the fall on Friday might presage another collapse. With the US away on yet another bank holiday, the scene might have been set for a replay of the last Stateside vacation on Jan 21st. In the event even the S&P futures market managed, at one point, to trade some 20 points higher in very light volume. That will not please Stateside traders, as they will have missed out on the fun.
Early calls are for the markets to give up some 35 points of yesterdays move on the open and come in with a FTSE 100 spread at around 5910-5911. The Far East failed to give a further boost to the bulls, which is slightly disappointing but hardly surprising. We are still in a sort of limbo as to how the banking crisis will affect the overall well-being of, not just the UK but also, the global economies. This will continue to show itself in wildly volatile markets as fear or greed gain the temporary ascendancy.
Barclays have come in much as expected but Cadbury and Scottish and Newcastle have missed estimates by a mile. S&N even managed a loss (mainly on a one off charge) against expectations of a profit of around 280m which will not help their defence against Carlsberg. If the ‘retail’ sector of the FTSE is starting to look weak then we could be in for some tough times.
Indices Spread Betting, 18 Feb 08
So much for the gloomy outlook...Today seems to be coming in on the plus side with the FTSE 100 spread called 35 points higher and back above 5800 at 5823-5824. Dealers will be eying the corporate news wires all week as big players from the banking, mining, engineering, pharmaceutical and just about every other sector give their annual numbers. Trying to second guess market reaction is becoming quite difficult as economic and company data seems to be being read from a bearish perspective these days. No matter how good a piece of data some analyst manages to pounce on a tiny negative indicator and leads on the story.
'Indices February Spread Trading' by DB, updated 29-Feb-08
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