The big gainer at the moment is our old friend ‘Gold’ with the daily spot price slowly grinding its way higher. While it is not yet pressing the highs at $1000 the recent weakness in the greenback has given a solid platform from which a spike higher may be built.
Since the start of May we have moved some $65 higher and we have had 11 up days in the last 14 sessions (even the reversals have seemed half hearted). It is difficult to believe that there is much in the way of short squeezing going on so the move higher is probably built on actual demand slowly dribbling into the market.
Over the last few years the price of precious metals has tended to mirror activity in the equity markets. It is clear there are some fears of renewed financial turmoil leading to another run for the safe haven of the yellow metal.
Our clients remain long...as they have been for the last three years. However while the prospects look positive half an eye should be focussed on the dollar and other asset prices. If these start to look stronger then Gold may experience a pull back.
Gold Spread Betting, 20 May 2009
Price Update - Gold closed yesterday at $926.20.
Gold Spread Betting, 19 May 2009
Price Update - Gold closed yesterday at $931.70.
Gold Spread Betting, 18 May 2009
Gold closed last week up $20.40 at $931.50 (up 2.24%).
Gold is still trying to make ground after having broken through resistance around $920. The more the metal stays around the levels though, the more likely it is that we will see selling pressure.
Interestingly, clients are long the future gold contract, but short of the gold rolling daily market, so perhaps expectations are for a decline in the near term, but a continuation of the move higher from mid April. At the time of writing gold is trading at $925.50.
Gold Spread Betting, 13 May 2009
US dollar weakness has allowed gold to gain and finally we have breached the $920 mark to a new 6 week high. The next resistance is seen around $935.
Gold Spread Betting, 12 May 2009
Yesterday gold (yawn) once again drifted sideways and a little lower to $910 with little assistance from forex markets and the absence of any meaningful economic data.
$920 remains the near term hurdle and clients remain long of the precious metal. Trading should be a little more exciting today as we see the release of more data and at the time of writing we are at $913.
Gold Spread Betting, 11 May 2009
Gold closed last week up $21.70 at $911.10 (up 2.44%). It is still sitting around the $915 level and for the last few days has been sitting ominously below the $920 mark where resistance is seen.
Further dollar weakness could lead to a test of resistance but one gets the feeling that this may need to be supported by a rally in the equity market too as investors continue to take on more risk. The big question is though, are they happy to take on more risk and continue driving the equity market higher given the stellar performance we have just had.
Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Gold Spread Trading May 2009' by DB, updated 22-May-09
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