Gold Spread Betting Market Struggles to Breach $1750 Level
Spread Betting 2 December 2011
Anyone would be amazed to see the rally in equities this morning after having read the headlines of most newspapers today.
Full of doom and gloom and the possible cost of a Eurozone break up to the British economy, investors are brushing that risk aside and pushing the indices higher. It looks like the Christmas rally could be getting underway in earnest.
Fund managers who have had a tough ride this year will not wish to be missing out on any potential upside.
Even though the macro economic picture still looks shaky and uncertain, to many people the shares spread betting markets look cheap from a historical earnings perspective.
There is also the chance that European leaders will actually get somewhere before the year end, as the situation is getting evermore serious.
There are hints that expectations of a resolution to the crisis are rising following the big drop in ten year government bond yields for the likes of Italy and Spain this week.
In addition there has been the continued bounce in equities coupled with the fact that they simply have to do something otherwise the Eurozone in its current form is doomed. Any break up would have ramifications beyond what most people can possibly predict.
This morning’s strength from the FTSE has taken not only clients by surprise, but us as well since we were only calling the index to open higher by some 30 points. Gradually, however, as we approached the open, quotes were bid higher and so now were sitting comfortably in the black with an almost 1.5% jump to 5565.
The move higher in the last few days has caught quite a few bears off guard. In fact, over the short term, as markets continue to rise, things are starting to look even more bullish from a technical analysis point of view.
For the FTSE levels around 5600 are now in view, with resistance near term seen around 5615/50.
The 5650 area is a really major resistance level over the medium term too as that’s where the 200 day moving average is where many European indices failed on the last attempt.
The Dow is now back above its own 200 day moving average so this might be a case of European indices simply catching up with their US counterparts.
All eyes are on the Non Farm Payroll number where analysts rushed to readjust their forecasts higher following Wednesday’s bumper private ADP payroll number.
Expectations are for a figure of 125k due to initial jobless claims that have been trending lower recently, although yesterday’s number bucked that trend, and there are signs that the US’s services sector is healthy and recruiting.
Forex spread betting investors are still in risk-on mode, and safer currencies like the yen and dollar might see their biggest weekly loss against the euro in over a month.
Despite the ongoing threat of a Eurozone meltdown, US data has been positive recently and encouraging traders to look less at safe haven assets. However, today could be a big day for currency movement on the release of NFP.
If the figures are good, it seems likely that we’ll see equities move higher and a fall in the dollar. EUR/USD is trading at $1.3475 and sees support at $1.3460 and resistance at $1.3530.
Gold seems to have found a bit of a ceiling around the $1750 level, having gone sideways for the last couple of days, and it doesn’t seem to be benefiting from the continued bullishness in equity markets.
At $1747 at the time of writing levels to watch for the gold spread betting market over the near term are $1755/70/78 to the upside and $1735/25/11 to the downside.
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'Gold Spread Betting Market Struggles to Breach $1750 Level' edited by SD, updated 02-Dec-11
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