FTSE 100 Technical Analysis: Index Rises Despite Uncertainty
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Being an index of the 100 biggest companies on the London Stock Exchange, the FTSE 100 is considered a quite reliable yardstick of the health of the economy in general.
If one looks at the period since the index started at 1000 on the 1st of January 1984, the picture certainly looks healthy. The current value of 6041 represents growth of more than 500 per cent over the 27-year term.
The fact of the matter is, however, that the index is currently well below the maximum level of 6950.6 it reached in December 1999, which means that in effect we have seen negative growth over the past 12 years.
FTSE 100 Technical Analysis
If we consider technical analysis of the FTSE 100 then, looking at the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo on the candlestick chart below, everything seems to point to a bull market as the price is far above the cloud.
It is also well above the red Tenkan-Sen (short-term average) and the blue Kijun-Sen (longer-term average). The green Chinkou Span line is also well above the price 26 days ago, strengthening the perception of a bull market.
There are, however, a couple of things that could indicate that we should not jump to conclusions. The red Tenkan-Sen has turned flat, which indicates short-term uncertainty in the market, and the cloud is also very thin, which further points to indecisiveness in the market.
If the spread betting price should break through the recent high of 6064.80, we might see it test the previous high of 6106.80 it reached on the 8th of February. A cautious trader would not enter a medium or long-term position long position before this happens. A potential stop loss in this case is the red Tenkan-Sen line.
In the current market, traders should wait for further signs of weakness before entering into a short position. If the price drops as far as the Ichimoku cloud, it could be on its way to test the previous low of 5505.30 on the 16th of March.
A careful trader will wait for the price to break downwards out of the cloud before going short, but this could rob you of most of the profits in the swing trade. An alternative, but riskier, approach would be to go short as soon as the price drops below the blue Kijun-Sen.
Good luck and happy trading
Shai Heffetz, InterTrader
(Original article written 28 April 2011).
Spread betting carries a high level of risk and you can lose more than your initial deposit, so you should ensure spread betting meets your investment objectives.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade. Neither InterTrader nor CleanFinancial.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the above or for the correctness or accuracy of the information provided.
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'FTSE 100 Technical Analysis: Index Rises Despite Uncertainty' edited by DB, updated 28-Apr-11
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