Forex Trading April 2008
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Forex Spread Trading
A regular Forex spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Forex spread trading update, click here.
Spread Betting on FX, 25 Apr 08
Looking at the Forex Spread Betting markets the Pound actually managed a good day for a change as the Euro and Yen suffered. Of course the real winner was the US Dollar. Cable is now at the bottom of it recent range with dealers probing for any weakness below $1.9700. We have been here many times in recent weeks and each event has seen a bounce back up to $1.9950. The Financial Spreads accounts seem to be expecting a similar response this time and we are seeing buyers creeping into long Sterling positions.
The problem with much of the current currency levels is that there have been huge shifts in recent years and if there is a sea change in favour of the green back then there is a lot of space for it to recover.
Spread Betting on FX, 24 Apr 08
Sterling has also been rather cuddly towards our clients. The Cable range between $1.9700 and $2.0000 was reconfirmed yet again with yesterdays rejection of the highs around $1.9975. The GBP / USD spread is now down at $1.9750 - $1.9753 and shorts are quietly taking their profits and looking for an indication that the reverse might happen today.
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Spread Betting on FX, 23 Apr 08
Looking at the FX markets the pound continues to oscillate between £1.9700 and £2.0000. This morning Sterling is showing weakness from the yesterdays attempt to get back above the 2 dollar mark. With little information to go on at the moment short-term punters are playing the aforementioned range with the position takers sitting on their hands awaiting, as with the FTSE, a break out.
Spread Betting on FX, 21 Apr 08
On the currency front the dollar, euro, pound and yen all seem reasonably content with the current level. Although, it must be admitted that the trading sessions are getting much more fractured. For the last month there have been as many up days on the various crosses as down days. That could be taken as an indication that the year long dollar fall could (just could) be petering out.
USD/EUR has been bashing around between $1.56 and $1.59 for a month with no indication of whether the bears or the bulls are getting the upper hand. Although the trend is still very gently euro positive. At the current USD/EUR spread of $1.5832 - $1.5834 we are slap in the middle of the current trading range.
Against the Yen the dollar spread betting market is back at the levels of this time last month at ¥103.69 - ¥103.71. In the mean time it managed to fall all the way to ¥95.75. It has been this recovery from the lows that has caused the fallout in Gold as Far East valuations have slipped. The JPY / USD cross is eying the ¥105.00 level as the major resistance as this was where it held up on the way down.
Spread Betting on FX, 17 Apr 08
FX markets are once again buying the Euro. Sterling has once again (yawn) hit an all time low but has at least stopped versus the other majors. At some point the elastic band of Euro strength will reach its zenith but that day is not yet. As the ECB ponders its intentions the recent French inflation numbers will not have them reaching for the rate cutting axe. Whilst I am not as dismissive of official CPI numbers as some, I also find it difficult to explain away the UK’s official rate of 2.5% against France’s 3.5% when our currency has fallen 20% versus theirs. The BOE is now caught between a rock and a hard place. Rising inflation requiring high rates, low growth requiring easing.
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Spread Betting on FX, 16 Apr 08
Dollar weakness continues to be the theme in currency markets with the Euro around $1.5840 and looking like it wants to test record highs of $1.5900. Even Sterling is a little stronger against the Dollar bouncing off the support mentioned yesterday. It looks like it’s fighting hard against the euro too. EU countries must be praying for the trend to change as their currency has got so expensive that they’ll really be starting to feel the pinch. But when you look at the charts it’s difficult to see where the current bull run will end.
Spread Betting on FX, 15 Apr 08
On the currency front the pound is suffering badly with the crosses falling against all the majors (even the dollar). We are now at yet another all time low vs the Euro (I should know as I have just returned from Spain and the prices are now eye-watering). Effectively every asset in the UK has been devalued by 20% since October last year against European valuations. If you couple in growth slowdowns, inflation and possible house price falls the outlook is decidedly nerve wracking.
Cable is back down at its support levels around £1.97 and if we close below here more sellers may be tempted to set up shorts. Over the past week’s trading sessions the market has bounced off the £1.9650 to £1.9700 level several times but traders continue to try to press the issue.
Vs the Euro, as mentioned, we are at all time lows...the chart is frankly appalling and whilst I am not exactly a sterling bull this level of devaluation appears well overdone. For many nations within the Euro bloc the high levels of their currency will be spelling DOOM in very big letters. The European Central Bank will almost certainly come under very strong pressure to cut rates and now that Berlusconi has been re-elected the doves may gain a very powerful (if at times incoherent) ally.
Spread Betting on FX, 14 Apr 08
The dollar has benefited from the comments made by G7 finance ministers who voiced their concern over excessive currency fluctuations but already the Euro has recovered from its overnight lows of $1.5670 back to the $1.5770 mark. In the absence of taking any action the market has shrugged off their comments as the fundamentals of a weaker dollar remain in place.
'Forex Trading April 2008' by DB, updated 25-Apr-08
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Forex Trading April 2008, updated 25-Apr-08
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Online forex spread betting news and free live prices. In the Forex markets GBP v USD fell to a 14 month low and is trading below the $2 mark to around $1.9945. With Financial Spreads, the Sterling / Dollar (December) market is trading at 1.9971 - 1.9974 suggesting that they don't think there will be a quick recovery....read article.
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