Forex Spread Trading September 2009
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Forex Spread Trading
A regular Forex spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Forex spread trading update, click here.
Forex Spread Betting, 24 Sep 2009
Sterling is doing its best to recover from the recent falls but our clients seem to be unimpressed. Heavy selling into yesterday’s minor rally has set up nice short positions for many above $1.6400.
On the other hand it must be noted that the failure on Monday to threaten the $1.6110 support did result in a strong recovery through Tuesday. For all the winging around versus the dollar the cross remains well and truly stuck in the $1.60/$1.61 to $1.66/$1.67 range where we have been for four months now.
The weakness of the pound versus other majors has merely been reflected by the Dollars own lack of strength. Versus the Euro the cross seems unable to bounce far away from €1.10 and it is becoming evident that the poor old pound is finding few friends just now. The BoE’s huge QE injection and the low base rates are not exactly filling investors with much in the way of future expectations.
Forex Spread Betting, 22 Sep 2009
The dollar continues to be weak against most crosses although it has found some support in recent days versus the Yen at ¥90.25. Against the even weaker Pound it seems to be positively buoyant.
As I write the cross versus the Euro is probing the highs for the year at $1.4750 and a break here might easily lead to a sharp shift towards the major resistance at $1.4870 to $1.4900.
We have tried to instil a sense of fear over the EUR/USD in our spread betting clients minds but most seem to be still trying to oppose the rampant Eurozone currency.
At the moment we have the curious phenomena of having clients Long Sterling-Dollar, Short Euro–Dollar and Long Dollar-Yen leaving us with almost no net client dollar exposure but a massive Sterling-Euro and Sterling-Yen position.
Unfortunately our clients seem to have gotten into poor positions and are holding on grimly for some kind of pull back.
Forex Spread Betting, 21 Sep 2009
Sterling is becoming a bit of a disaster area at the moment with each session showing greater inroads.
While the GBP/USD is still 27¢ above the January lows the GBP/EUR is just 5 euro cents off the same time values.
Since breaking the major trendline support last Wednesday the GBP/EUR cross has lost 3¢ and is not exactly looking like making it back today with the initial move to the downside once again.
There is actually some good volume and price support around the €1.10 level but you are always left with the feeling that it might just be because of the psychological 110 number.
For most of my time in the City, the Pound has only maintained its strength through a constant implementation of an interest rate buffer versus the Euro, Deutschmark, Yen etc.
Even then, the opportunity for lower rates through the last ten years was wasted by the BoE who maintained the high rate policy when inflation and real growth - non public sector - indicated a softer hand.
Now the poor old Pound is caught, in the words of Warren Buffet, swimming with no trunks on.
Price update:
- GBP / USD closed last week down -$0.041 at $1.629 (down -2.46% week-on-week)
- USD / JPY closed last week up ¥0.7 at ¥91.3 (up 0.77% week-on-week)
- EUR / USD closed last week up $0.011 at $1.472 (up 0.75% week-on-week)
- EUR / GBP closed last week up £0.029 at £0.904 (up 3.31% week-on-week)
Also see:
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"With FinancialSpreads.com you get all the normal
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Forex Spread Betting, 17 Sep 2009
As mentioned, the Dollar is weakening again with the Yen eying the 90 cent level once more. ¥90.10 to ¥90.30 has been the lows on three of the last four days and with the cross now at ¥90.56 off 30 pips overnight dealers will be wondering if another test is in the offing.
A failure to break lower today may well bring out the buyers but bears are eyeing the lows of ¥87.10 which we hit twice last December and January.
Sterling/Yen is forming large tails with small changes on the candlestick charts and this is generally an indication of an imminent move. The current trend would suggest that the favoured direction would be for further Sterling weakness but traders are naturally wary in a market of such violent shifts.
Resistance to the upside is at ¥150.60 to ¥151.00, support at ¥148.50. With the price now at ¥149.90, either direction appears equally likely.
Forex Spread Betting, 16 Sep 2009
As feared in yesterday’s comment the Pound came in for a bit of a hammering but I have to admit it was helped on the way down by the BOE comment on Bank reserves. Both the BOE and the Fed (as mentioned many times here) seem to be running a covert weak currency policy, albeit with occasional statements to the contrary to assuage Far Eastern investors.
Inflation is the counterbalance to running such a policy but, at the moment, this is being kept in check by the general weakness of their respective economies. Of course, this is a long term play and not one that really needs to impact short term traders but the balancing act of huge fiscal stimuli, weak currency, continued massive trade and budget deficits, inflation pressures and only marginal growth expectations is one that probably keeps the Fed and BOE awake at night.
Cable managed to hold above $1.6400 yesterday as we continue to trade in the low $1.60’s to mid to high $1.60’s range. For that last four months anyone selling above $1.6550 and buying below $1.6200 would have made a killing many times over.
At some point a confirmed break will occur and then sparks will fly but it must be remembered that the GBP / USD cross traded at around $1.98 with the occasional attempt above $2.00 for a year and a half from Nov 07 to July 08 before the massive shift to the downside so sometimes these things can take time.
Forex Spread Betting, 15 Sep 2009
Sterling managed to hold to the ¥150 support versus the Yen mentioned yesterday and has bounced to the current ¥151.25 level. The recovery does not seem too exciting though so traders should beware of reading too much into it.
Cable has also managed a minor bounce from the $1.65 level up to $1.6650 but is struggling to make headway. Sellers are lining up amongst our customers and their positions are building.
Forex Spread Betting, 14 Sep 2009
Currency markets are trying to take a more Dollar favourable look this morning but, in truth, it is really only the Pound that is suffering to any extent. The high for Sterling on Friday at $1.6740 now looks to be a move too far and (oddly enough) matched exactly the pre-August break out high on the 30th June.
History obviously does, sometimes, repeat itself. For those of you who like neatness the markets are now rather unnervingly looking like the possible formation of a head and shoulders pattern. If this proves to be the case we may be returning to the lows in the longer term.
Poor old Sterling really does look to have few friends at the moment and the recent weakness of the Dollar versus the other three major currencies has not been reflected in a fall against the Pound. The double top in Sterling/Yen at ¥163 is particularly pronounced and the failure on 25th August to hold the support line (in fact the failure over the last few weeks to hold any supports at all) is beginning to worry.
If we continue on the way down the critical level will be the ¥146.00 -¥146.50 which, if challenged and broken, might bode ill for a return to the ¥120-¥130 lows. There is minor support at the current ¥150 level and resistance at ¥150.45.
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Forex Spread Trading September 2009' by DB, updated 25-Sep-09
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Forex Spread Betting March 2010, updated 12-Mar-10
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Forex Spread Betting February 2010, updated 12-Feb-10
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Forex Spread Trading January 2010, updated 29-Jan-10
FX market update: On the currency front, the Euro has been weakening again, finally dropping below $1.40 yesterday. The currency is...read article: Forex Spread Trading January 2010.
Forex Spread Betting January 2010, updated 15-Jan-10
FX market update: The US retail sales didn't help the Dollar much and it drifted back to the ¥91.00 mark against the Yen. With the rate at...read article: Forex Spread Betting January 2010.
Forex Spread Bets December 2009, updated 01-Jan-10
FX market update: Interesting movements in the Forex spreads markets are just about the only thing worth focussing on at the moment. Yesterday the Dollar waxed and waned, managing a...read article: Forex Spread Bets December 2009.
Forex Spread Trading December 2009, updated 18-Dec-09
FX market update: The momentum against Cable was compounded by some negative UK retail sales which flew in the face of recent reports from retailers like...read article: Forex Spread Trading December 2009.
Forex Spread Betting December 2009, updated 04-Dec-09
FX market update: The Euro managed to exactly match our commented range of $1.5140 to $1.5040/60 in yesterday's session. It traded at...read article: Forex Spread Betting December 2009.
Forex Spread Trading November 2009, updated 20-Nov-09
FX market update: Currency markets are mixed this morning but largely in favour of the Dollar. Cable is heading lower as once again it fails to test...read article: Forex Spread Trading November 2009.
Forex Spread Betting November 2009, updated 06-Nov-09
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Forex Spread Trading October 2009, updated 23-Oct-09
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Forex Spread Betting October 2009, updated 09-Oct-09
FX market update: Mervyn King muttered about a weak currency helping exporters but I have to say that this commentator is yet to see any evidence of...read article: Forex Spread Betting October 2009.
Forex Spread Trading September 2009, updated 25-Sep-09
FX market update: The weakness of the Pound versus other majors has merely been reflected by the Dollars own lack of strength. Versus the Euro the cross seems unable to...read article: Forex Spread Trading September 2009.
Forex Spread Betting September 2009, updated 11-Sep-09
FX market update: As mentioned many times over the last few months the Dollar continues to suffer from what looks like benign neglect from the...read article: Forex Spread Betting September 2009.
Forex Spread Betting August 2009, updated 28-Aug-09
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Forex Spread Trading August 2009, updated 14-Aug-09
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Forex Spread Trading July 2009, updated 31-Jul-09
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Forex Spread Betting July 2009, updated 17-Jul-09
FX market update: The dollar is making a little ground back against sterling. Rather like the equity markets there is a lack of direction and a real tussle between the
...read article: Forex Spread Betting July 2009.
Forex Spread Bets June 2009, updated 03-Jul-09
FX market update: Sterling is also managing to sit tight against some serious tests of support. Cable has drifted sideways through the short term upward trend line which is marginally worrying and this may give cause for a move back into the $1.58 to $1.60 region. However sometimes trend lines just lose their...read article: Forex Spread Bets June 2009.
Forex Spread Trading June 2009, updated 19-Jun-09
FX market update: Forex markets must have read my comment yesterday as the pound made an almost carbon copy move to Wednesday's price action. The total net effect over the last three days has been...read article: Forex Spread Trading June 2009.
Forex Spread Betting June 2009, updated 05-Jun-09
FX market update: Even though the GBP/USD spread betting market has fallen from a high of $1.6670 on Wednesday to the current $1.6050 there have been some big rallies amidst the 6 cent fall. Clients have been trying to buy into...read article: Forex Spread Betting June 2009.
Forex Spread Trading May 2009, updated 22-May-09
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Forex Spread Betting May 2009, updated 08-May-09
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Forex Spread Trading April 2009, updated 24-Apr-09
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Forex Spread Betting October 2008, updated 10-Oct-08
FX market update: Trading in the Forex markets has been just as violent as the equities as the pound has fallen dramatically out of favour versus the Yen and Dollar. It appeared, briefly, that confidence in...read article: Forex Spread Betting October 2008.
Forex Spread Trading September 2008, updated 26-Sep-08
FX market: The Forex markets must have been reading my comment yesterday as Cable failed at almost exactly the resistance of $1.8650 and then moved down to attack the support at $1.8450. Once this had...read article: Forex Spread Trading September 2008.
Forex Spread Betting September 2008, updated 12-Sep-08
FX market update: On the FX spread betting front the inability of the Pound, Euro or Yen to hold onto the gains versus the dollar do not bode well in coming sessions. The currency markets are settling in to the new ranges caused by...read article: Forex Spread Betting September 2008.
Forex Spread Trade August 2008, updated 29-Aug-08
FX market update: The Euro / Dollar rate is off its lows this morning around the $1.4693 mark and continues to test...read article: Forex Spread Trade August 2008.
Forex Spread Betting August 2008, updated 15-Aug-08
FX market update: We are now sitting just above the massive 2006 GBP / USD support level at around...read article: Forex Spread Betting August 2008.
Forex Spread Trading July 2008, updated 01-Aug-08
FX market update: In the Forex spread betting markets the dollar and yen are looking to make gains after the...read article: Forex Spread Trading July 2008.
Forex Spread Betting July 2008, updated 18-Jul-08
FX market update: In the Forex Spread Betting world Cable continues to hover around the $2.00 dollar mark but the Euro has, for the time being, given up on the...read article: Forex Spread Betting July 2008.
Forex Financial Spread Bet July 2008, updated 04-Jul-08
Forex market update: The weak dollar is causing much of the recent commodity spike and the laissez faire attitude of the US administration to the value of the Greenback is coming back to haunt them in the shape of...read article: Forex Financial Spread Bet July 2008.
Forex Financial Spread Trading June 2008, updated 20-Jun-08
Forex market update: Every time the pound looks to be in danger of a fall to below $1.94 buyers come in and take it back up to around $1.98 to $2.00. Cable has been in a falling wedge formation since...read article: Forex Financial Spread Trading June 2008.
Forex Financial Spread Betting June 2008, updated 06-Jun-08
Forex market update: The pound was dragged a little in the Euros wake yesterday but even so lost over a Euro cent in the post Trichet move. The GBP / USD spread is currently at $1.9581 - $1.9584 this morning and is still at the lower end of the recent trading ranges. Any clients who bought into...read article: Forex Financial Spread Betting June 2008.
Forex Spread Bet May 2008, updated 23-May-08
Forex market update: Sterling had one of its surging days yesterday moving higher against every other major currency. We have seen some very heavy buying in the Pound and Euro vs the lower interest rate currencies (JPY, CHF, USD) in the last few sessions as traders...read article: Forex Spread Bet May 2008.
Forex Trading May 2008, updated 09-May-08
Forex market update: Unfortunately the FX markets, which seemed to be selling the Pound and Euro in anticipation of a rate cut from both the ECB and MPC only reversed for the Euro and not for the Pound. Sterling is now weakening again against all the majors and yet another attack on the...read article: Forex Trading May 2008.
Forex Trading April 2008, updated 25-Apr-08
Forex market update: Looking at the Forex Spread Betting markets the Pound actually managed a good day for a change as the Euro and Yen suffered. Of course the real winner was the US Dollar. Cable is now at the bottom of it recent range with dealers probing for any weakness below...read article: Forex Trading April 2008.
Forex Spread Bets April 2008, updated 11-Apr-08
Forex market trading update: The dollar is getting a knock this morning weaker against the majority of other currencies. Sterling attempted to make some sort of recovery against the euro yesterday dipping below the £0.8000 mark. However, since...read article: Forex Spread Bets April 2008.
Forex March Spread Trading, updated 28-Mar-08
Forex markets: On the FX markets the Dollar continues to hold it own for the time being but the pound seems to have hit something of a brick wall overnight. All the majors are unchanged except for the pound which is down 80 pips against the greenback (under $2 again)...and is at a new all time low versus the Euro at £0.7894 which means that we are now over 15%...read article: Forex March Spread Trading.
Real-time Forex Prices and Charts, updated 15-Feb-08
Forex pricing information: On the currency trading front we are very quiet and with no news expected today it may well remain that way for the early trading session. GBP / USD looks to be quite happy at levels near to $1.9700 but we have made a habit of...read article: Real-time Forex Prices and Charts.
UK Forex Spread Trading, updated 01-Feb-08
UK Forex Spread Trading: FX markets are absolutely comatose at the moment and we are trading and re-trading over the same ranges. The pound is pretty much...read article: UK Forex Spread Trading.
Forex January Spread Betting, updated 18-Jan-08
FX markets remain peaceful with the Dollar and Pound continuing to recoup some of the recent losses. The Sterling/Yen cross is now hovering just below the 211.90 support/resistance at a spread of...read article: Forex January Spread Betting.
Forex Trading Online, updated 21-Dec-07
Find out where you can Trade FX Online for free plus your FX trading questions answered, tips on getting free FX charts, real time prices and...read article: Forex Trading Online.
Forex Futures Trading, updated 07-Dec-07
Where to trade Forex Futures plus updated Forex trading news and the most popular Forex questions answered....read article: Forex Futures Trading.
Forex Broker, updated 23-Nov-07
Where to find free Forex Brokers plus regular Forex financial trading news as well as the most popular Forex questions answered....read article: Forex Broker.
Forex Platform, updated 09-Nov-07
Where to find free Forex Platforms plus updated Forex trading news as well as the most popular Forex queries answered....read article: Forex Platform.
Forex Software, updated 26-Oct-07
Where to find free Forex Software information plus updated Forex trading news as well as the most popular Forex queries answered....read article: Forex Software.
Forex Prices, updated 04-Feb-08
Where to find free Forex Prices plus updated Forex news as well as your top Forex questions answered....read article: Forex Prices.
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