Currency markets are getting dollar and yen positive again this morning. Money continues to desert the UK for more clement climes. The GBP / USD spread is now at $1.4886 - $1.4889 down almost a cent overnight and is in danger of breaking in to the lower trading range of $1.4550 to $1.4875 of last week.
The steeply angled short term downward trend line proved impossible for Cable to breach in yesterdays early action. We failed in dramatic fashion, at bang on the resistance at $1.5250, to hold to any kind of strength. 24hrs later and we are almost 4¢ off and looking weak.
FX Spread Betting, 18 Nov 08
The pound is finding a bit of strength from somewhere as it tries to recoup some of the heavy losses of the last few weeks. We have now pushed up and over the 1.50 mark vs the dollar for the first time since the break through last week and it seems that weak shorts (for once) are being squeezed.
The GBP / USD spread is now $1.5082 - $1.5085 and, to be honest, there is little in the way of resistance or support around the current price. The short term falling trend line is now at around $1.5245 which also happens to be, almost exactly, the previous low from back in October before we sold off last week. This might make for a tempting target for the bear squeezers but punters should beware false rallies. There is no doubt that the pound is in a downward phase and FX markets love their trends.
FX Spread Betting, 17 Nov 08
GBP / USD closed last week down -$0.098 at $1.479 (down -6.21%)
USD / JPY closed last week down -¥1.3 at ¥96.7 (down -1.33%)
EUR / USD closed last week down -$0.008 at $1.271 (down -0.63%)
EUR / GBP closed last week up £0.044 at £0.855 (up 5.43%)
The Sterling / Euro spread is now at €1.1649-€1.1653. That means that against our major trading partner, whose currency has also dropped alarmingly, we are over 20% off from the average levels from prior to 2008.
Much of the Sterling drop has been in the last few weeks. Without the prop of high interest rates (a prop manufactured by our central bank over the last 10 years) the pound is now seen by virtually every trader as an easy sell.
Forex Spread Betting, 12 Nov 08
On the currency front traders are taking a breather on buying the dollar this morning and Cable has pulled back up to the current GBP / USD spread of $1.5435 - $1.5438.
However the charts still show strong trend momentum to the downside for Sterling. Having lost 25% since July it can hardly be expected to show anything else, of course. The lows of October at $1.5265 might seem to be a target for sellers but the precipitous nature of the falls is tempting in buyers looking for a bigger short term bounce. It is difficult to remain continuously negative on the ‘good old pound’ but the economic situation prevailing in UK plc does not exactly make me optimistic.
Forex Spread Betting, 11 Nov 08
Sterling seems to be forming a short term ‘flag’ formation with the price range contracting to a point. Resistance to the upside is at around $1.5770 and Support is between $1.5525 to $1.5540. With the GBP / USD spread currently at $1.5633-$1.5636 we are neatly in the middle so traders should be aware of the opportunities and perils of either one or the other being breached.
FX Spread Betting, 10 Nov 08
GBP / USD closed last week down -$0.040 at $1.577 (down -2.47%)
USD / JPY closed last week down -JPY 0.4 at JPY 98.0 (down -0.41%)
EUR / USD closed last week up $0.005 at $1.279 (up 0.39%)
EUR / GBP closed last week up £0.026 at £0.811 (up 3.31%)
Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Forex Spread Trading November 2008' by DB, updated 21-Nov-08
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