Forex Spread Trading March 2009
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Forex Spread Trading
A regular Forex spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Forex spread trading update, click here.
Forex Spread Betting, 27 Mar 2009
Forex markets are still wary of the recent indication that the US might not be opposed to the creation of a ‘Super Currency’ run by the IMF, the mere mention of which sent the dollar into momentary freefall on Wednesday.
Some of the strength of the dollar is often attributed to the fact that it is the ‘global currency’ and is certainly the reserve currency of choice for governments across the planet.
If there was even a hint that this state of affairs was about to end the effect could be catastrophic on dollar holdings. The idea was mooted by the Chinese and was not immediately kicked into touch by everyone else. The fact that nobody actually said “you must be joking” added weight to the possibility. But I feel that this is more of an indication that nobody wants to p**s off the Chinese rather than any real agreement on the matter. The Chinese are the biggest holders of external debt and everyone wants them to keep on buying.
I believe that the weakness in the dollar recently versus the Euro may start to reverse especially if $1.3410 is breached to the downside. With markets at $1.3540 at the moment there is quite a way to go to ‘have a pop’. However each day for the last six trading sessions has printed a lower high. Buyers are running out of steam at ever lower prices might be significant.
The recent economic figures from the US have been significantly better than expected. Although the huge issuance from the Treasury over the next few years is likely to prompt the Fed to retain micro low rates the good news may tempt some movement to recover much of the ground lost by the greenback.
Forex Spread Betting, 26 Mar 2009
Forex markets have also been rather subdued of late but the overall trend remains dollar negative.
Just when throughout George Bush’s time in office he kept on playing the dollar up and it weakened to record lows, Obama is the reverse telling the world how the dollar remains the one and only safe haven store of value – could this be famous last words? Certain the recent moves suggest that investors are doubtful that the dollar can hold onto the gains it made throughout January and February.
Forex Spread Betting, 25 Mar 2009
Currency markets have been a little quiet overnight but the dollar seems to be clawing back a little of its loses from the last few days as the dust seems to be settling on the US government’s huge Private Public Investment Program.
Cable seems to have formed a double bottom so far in 2009 and although a large chunk of sterling’s move higher has already taken place from the $1.3550 level, we’re very close to testing February’s high of $1.4980.
Forex Spread Betting, 24 Mar 2009
Sterling seems to be regaining some composure versus the Euro but it might be a tad early to get too excited as we are still well below €1.10 at €1.0795-€1.0799.
The cross seems to be dominated at the moment by the obvious trading levels €1.10, €1.05 and €1.15. Since the turn of the year one or other of these numbers has defined (roughly) the high or low of nearly every move.
On this basis we are either heading back up to €1.10 or will reverse to €1.05, with the Euro weakening against other majors just now the probability is slightly shifted in Sterling’s favour just at the moment. Of course sentiment in the pound is not exactly what you would call ‘solid’.
Forex Spread Betting, 23 Mar 2009
The dollar is weaker again as the new toxic debt ideas are likely to lead to even more printing and the Pound is doing its best to recover some of its lost ground.
At $1.4570 the GBP/USD cross is looking solid but traders should be aware that the $1.4620-$1.4660 resistance range held once again last night. This makes three attempts in three trading sessions to break higher.
The pressure is very strong to the upside versus the dollar and a breach above $1.4660 might be a trigger for another big move. However traders should worry if we do not make the move soon as fatigue could set in.
The Euro continues to strengthen against all comers but (as with the pound) there is strong resistance just above current levels. We have peaked at around $1.3740 three sessions in a row. Whilst the recent move higher must have cleaned out all of the weak shorts this should not detract from the point that Euroland does have its problems.
Stresses within the Eurobloc are not going to go away and as the employment situation gets worse national governments may well start to make damaging local decisions.
Price Update:
- GBP / USD closed last week up $0.046 at $1.443 (up 3.29%)
- USD / JPY closed last week down -¥1.8 at ¥96.2 (down -1.84%)
- EUR / USD closed last week up $0.067 at $1.356 (up 5.2%)
- EUR / GBP closed last week up £0.017 at £0.94 (up 1.84%)
Also see:
Financial Spreads >>
"With FinancialSpreads.com you get all the normal
advantages of Spread Betting plus..." >> read
Financial Spreads review.
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Forex Spread Betting, 20 Mar 2009
The dollar remains in the dog-house this morning with Sterling tempting fate up at the big $1.4600 to $1.4650 resistance levels. Aside from the sharp sell off on Tuesday morning (which saw sterling lows at $1.3845) the pound has been on the up versus the greenback for several weeks now. We desperately need a break through the aforementioned resistance levels to really get the attention going.
The high yesterday at $1.4595 and this morning at $1.4590 show how nervous buyers are about being the first to attempt the summit. Naturally, if we drift off from here then the bears may once again take hold.
The euro on the other hand goes from strength to strength but, like the pound, is now running into good selling levels. ¥130 against the yen has proved a painful point for buyers several times in the past six months and it rejected the level again yesterday.
£0.95 versus the pound seems a similarly difficult pinnacle to conquer and aside from an abortive break right in the dying embers of 2008 the EUR/GBP cross has rejected this level three times now.
The dollar euro has made a habit of making huge surging moves over the past five or six months. All these moves have appeared to be defining moments at the time but have all eventually petered out in time for a move in the opposite direction.
Forex Spread Betting, 19 Mar 2009
On the currency front the major influences now appear to be the various central bank injections into the financial systems. While this will have short term implications the very long term view should be neutral (assuming it works). Nevertheless, traders will continue to be wary of what many consider to be voodoo economics.
Markets reacted violently to the announcement of some $300bn bond purchases by the US Treasury yesterday at around 1800 UK time. The dollar slumping over 4 eurocents.
Forex Spread Betting, 18 Mar 2009
On the currency side there was little to go for yesterday and not much today either. Sterling continues to flirt with the downside $1.4000 level versus the dollar. The Euro is in the opposing camp pushing at $1.3000 to the upside.
The pound has quietly slipped back below £1.10 against the Euro but there is not much comment on the wires over the renewed weakness. The Yen is likewise following the Pound down the slide.
The pressure forcing the Euro higher seems to be coming from weak shorts built up in February as the world pondered the likelihood of a break-up of the Euro Bloc. Such a beak-up seems very unlikely. For all its problems, there is no credible mechanism for any nation to detach itself.
Forex Spread Betting, 17 Mar 2009
Forex markets continue to oscillate around the same old levels, tracing and retracing ranges. The sentiment (if you talk to dealers) is Euro negative but we have yet to actually see this sentiment translate into price action.
Continued weak selling is actually creating mild support as positions are chased out and driving prices higher. With Euro rates higher than every other major currency we need a positive reason to sell.
The pound remains fragile to any determined selling and yesterday’s strong early move was easily defeated. In truth we seem stuck in a $1.3700 to $1.4400 (roughly) range. Any approach to either extreme is being heavily opposed.
Forex Spread Betting, 16 Mar 2009
On the currency front the pound is taking back some of its recent losses but it must be said that there still seems a strong bias to the sell side especially versus the Euro.
For many readers this seems strange as they will be aware that Euroland has its own unique problems that are certainly not helped by the current strength in the Euro itself.
Talk of a break up of the bloc are probably way wide of the mark as it is very difficult to see how any nation could recall all its cash in circulation and issue new negotiable currency.
Are notes printed in Italy/Spain/Ireland actually their obligation or would they be subsumed by the ECB? A pull out would have to be a very fast and last minute act (unlike the long run up to the Euro’s inauguration) and the chaos in the country concerned would be extreme.
Unfortunately for those suffering in the currency and monetary straitjacket of the Eurobloc the solution is just to grin and bear it.
Price Update:
- GBP / USD closed last week down -$0.018 at $1.397 (down -1.27%)
- USD / JPY closed last week up ¥0.2 at ¥98.0 (up 0.2%)
- EUR / USD closed last week up $0.023 at $1.289 (up 1.82%)
- EUR / GBP closed last week up £0.028 at £0.923 (up 3.13%)
Also see:
Financial Spreads >>
"With FinancialSpreads.com you get all the normal
advantages of Spread Betting plus..." >> read
Financial Spreads review.
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Forex Spread Trading March 2009' by DB, updated 27-Mar-09
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