Forex Spread Trading June 2009
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Forex Spread Trading
A regular Forex spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Forex spread trading update, click here.
Forex Spread Betting, 19 June 2009
Forex markets must have read my comment yesterday as the pound made an almost carbon copy move to Wednesday’s price action. The total net effect over the last three days has been minimal with 40 pips covering the closing prices but an almost identical 280 pips covering the high low range.
There does seem to be a very slight bias to the down side but not particularly significant. Just for once I followed my own opinion and covered some company currency risk down in the low $1.62’s. So far, that has proved to be the right call. Or at least it’s been that right call for long enough, so far, just, for me to buff my nails complacently.
As with yesterday’s morning comment the cable cross is almost unchanged on the close last night (just a smidgeon up) but our financial spread clients seem to be happy going long in early action.
GBP/JPY is recovering from the short sell off of earlier in the week and traders are buying here as well.
There is a certain feeling of yield-creep coming back into the equation as investors speculate that the BOE will be both the first and the most aggressive in raising rates (when this finally happens).
We can speculate that there may, once again, be a return to the cost of carry play which unwound so spectacularly last year.
Forex Spread Betting, 18 June 2009
A classic situation occurred in Cable (GBP/USD) yesterday. My comment in the morning about the excitement in the currency due to it being just about the only volatile instrument around at the moment was borne out by a fall of over 2¢ in morning trade followed by an equally strong rally in the evening. The net effect at the close of business was a change of just 6 pips after a trading range of 260 (2.6¢). Enough fun for anyone.
Today there is almost a carbon copy of yesterday’s early action. We have already seen an attempt to the down side and up side already in a 120 point range but to no conclusion. We currently sit at $1.6420, a few pips above the close last night.
Forex Spread Betting, 17 June 2009
On the spread betting currency exchanges the pound managed to rally on the back of worse than expected inflation numbers giving traders hopes for earlier rate hikes than expected.
It must be hoped that a rate increases does not actually become a reality. This time next year is already being marked as a grim time with public spending cuts coupled with tax hikes. The last thing the economy will need is rate hikes as well.
Cable is pretty flat this morning at $1.6410 having already had a go at both the up and down side in the night and early morning session. Of all the major markets GBP/USD currently seems to have the most interesting trading characteristics with high/lows per day of some 200 points and often more.
In the last three weeks the currency pair has traded a full 800 point trading range three times. The overall trend has been upwards since mid-March but seems to have hit a bit of a buffer at $1.66. That may prove difficult in the short term to bust through.
There is minor support at $1.6315, $1.62 and $1.6060 but the big trend line support is well down at around $1.55.
With news oscillating between bad and minor-good over in the US and the UK it is not difficult to suggest that the current violent but ultimately directionless activity will continue.
Forex Spread Betting, 16 June 2009
Forex markets are being quite contained but there are some interesting developments possibly building up.
The Euro has been generally on the up since early March with the odd pull back to keep it honest. The recent failure to re-challenge the highs of early June (or last December) above $1.4350 have brought out the sellers and a small down trend has developed.
On the plus side there is strong support at $1.3735 and we have bounced strongly off of this in early activity this morning to be trading at $1.3870-$1.3872.
There is a possibility that the cross rate will oscillate within the $1.3735 - $1.4350 range for the time being giving traders a good profit range to play with.
Closes outside of this range would definitely indicate a break and should trigger further buying or selling depend on which way it goes.
Sterling is also looking interesting with the charts showing a rather alarming double top at around $1.6630. Markets have rejected the level quite dramatically on both occasions and this may indicate that a renewed batch of Sterling weakness is in the offing.
The current price of $1.6340 is just a bit wishy washy to interest position takers though so we will have to await an approach towards $1.6220 or back up to $1.6630 before a better indication of direction emerges.
Forex Spread Betting, 15 June 2009
On the Forex spread betting front the pound is having to work hard to maintain its recent good run and the failure on Friday to hold the rally versus the dollar may be significant.
The dollar is recovering some lost ground to the Euro bloc (including the UK) as the numbers out of Germany continue to show ongoing problems. The woes of the eastern euro bloc are not going to disappear and we risk another battle on the banking front as loans to Latvia, Estonia, Poland et al turn sour.
Continued economic weakness is dragging ever more poor and doubtful debt into the mire and the disaster of the UK financial system may well be reflected in some of the French, German, Austrian and Spanish banking giants.
Price update:
- GBP / USD closed last week up $0.045 at $1.646 (up 2.81%)
- USD / JPY closed last week up ¥0.3 at ¥98.3 (up 0.31%)
- EUR / USD closed last week down -$0.001 at $1.400 (down -0.07%)
- EUR / GBP closed last week down -£0.025 at £0.85 (down -2.86%)
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Forex Spread Betting, 12 June 2009
On the forex front, things are quiet as cable attempts to make new highs beyond $1.6660. This morning we are around $1.6560.
Against the euro, sterling is just off the recent highs around €1.1740.
Forex Spread Betting, 11 June 2009
Sterling has recovered from the afternoon sell off yesterday and we are now pressuring the same highs from which we saw the temporary pull back - $1.6470.
While cable did rally higher last week, all the way to $1.6660, one of the major resistance levels can be identified as being between $1.4470 and $1.4500. It was the break of this that caused the swift rally to the highs on the 3rd of the month.
Here is a neat symmetry to the move in GBP/USD since September last year and in a perfect world this would now continue with a rally up to $1.75.
The US, as mentioned many times over the last month or so, seems to be following a policy of a weak dollar and this is having a grim effect on the competitiveness of Euroland and the UK. With quantitative easing still the name of the game in the US (while the UK has limited resources to continue its own program) we may well discover that the Greenback is midway on a long road lower.
Forex Spread Betting, 10 June 2009
There have been some wild swings in the currency markets in the last week and for cable, following its rejection of the $1.6600 level, the bulls look like they want to have another look. Although we are still a little way off at $1.6330 at the time of writing.
This morning the dollar is the dog once again and further good economic data, or at least not as bad data, could lead to further dollar declines.
Many of the investors who stored much of their wealth in the dollar as a safe haven during the credit crunch have been starting to look elsewhere to put their money.
The breakout by cable from $1.5300 led to the sharp move to where we are now. Whilst it looks tempting to jump on the trend at these levels, you have to remember that many of the clued-up investors have already traded out of the dollar. Currently it is difficult to see how much more room there is for dollar selling.
Forex Spread Betting, 9 June 2009
Sterling has recovered some of the losses of recent days as the ‘confirmation’ of Gordon Brown at least gives some comfort of continuity.
We bounced neatly off the ‘support’ at around the $1.58 level and then, as mentioned in yesterday’s comment, the breach on the way back up of $1.5960 triggered a swift rally in early action this morning as dealers speculated on a rejection of the trading range below this mark.
A marginally weakening dollar is helping the Pound recover some ground versus the other majors and Sterling/Euro is once again pressuring at the €1.16 level. The cross has struggled to hold above this level since the fall out late last year and bulls will be hoping that this time we can achieve a foothold on the way back up to respectability.
The €1.15 to €1.16 region was a support even when we were collapsing back in November/December. It also formed the high tide mark in the abortive rally of February and is once again proving something of a barrier this time around.
The fact that the rejection of a few days ago has not resulted in a swift reversal back below €1.12 and that buyers seem keen to ‘have another pop’ at the €1.16 resistance this morning may be significant.
However, if we do not claim a break through in the next few sessions the odds will turn towards a retracement.
Forex Spread Betting, 8 June 2009
Sterling continues to fall from the highs of last week with Cable now at $1.5850, having hit $1.6660 on Wednesday. While this seems grim it must be noted that if we go back another week we are just back at the same levels.
The rise and fall of the pound has been particularly dramatic of recent days and we can now look at the rally in the light of being, possibly, a bear squeeze rather than a move of any significance. We are now dangerously close to moving back into the old trading range below $1.5960 and dealers should beware any pre-emptive buying in aggressive size. It took quite a bit of effort to break above $1.5960 a couple of weeks ago and when we did the reaction was extreme.
This morning traders have sold the cross straight through the support at this level and we must hope that the reaction is not just as violent on the way down.
Price update:
- GBP / USD closed last week down -$0.012 at $1.601 (down -0.74%)
- USD / JPY closed last week up ¥2.5 at ¥98.0 (up 2.62%)
- EUR / USD closed last week down -$0.014 at $1.401 (down -0.99%)
- EUR / GBP closed last week down -£0.003 at £0.875 (down -0.34%)
Also see:
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"With FinancialSpreads.com you get all the normal
advantages of Spread Betting plus..." >> read
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Forex Spread Trading June 2009' by DB, updated 19-Jun-09
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Forex Spread Betting August 2010, updated 13-Aug-10
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Forex Spread Trading July 2010, updated 30-Jul-10
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Forex Spread Betting July 2010, updated 16-Jul-10
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Forex Spread Bets June 2010, updated 02-Jul-10
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Forex Spread Trading June 2010, updated 18-Jun-10
FX market update: FX markets are hammering at the Dollar for the fourth or fifth day in a row but the moves do seem to be treading water a bit...read article: Forex Spread Trading June 2010.
Forex Spread Betting June 2010, updated 04-Jun-10
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Forex Spread Trading May 2010, updated 21-May-10
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Forex Spread Betting May 2010, updated 07-May-10
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Forex Spread Trading April 2010, updated 23-Apr-10
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Forex Spread Betting April 2010, updated 09-Apr-10
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Forex Spread Trading March 2010, updated 26-Mar-10
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Forex Spread Betting March 2010, updated 12-Mar-10
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Forex Spread Trading February 2010, updated 26-Feb-10
FX market update: Cracks have appeared in the recovery and FX markets in particular have shown alarming moves that indicate they are preparing for...read article: Forex Spread Trading February 2010.
Forex Spread Betting February 2010, updated 12-Feb-10
FX market update: On the currency markets, the Pound and Euro both found support yesterday pushing well away from recent lows to climb quite strongly through...read article: Forex Spread Betting February 2010.
Forex Spread Trading January 2010, updated 29-Jan-10
FX market update: On the currency front, the Euro has been weakening again, finally dropping below $1.40 yesterday. The currency is...read article: Forex Spread Trading January 2010.
Forex Spread Betting January 2010, updated 15-Jan-10
FX market update: The US retail sales didn't help the Dollar much and it drifted back to the ¥91.00 mark against the Yen. With the rate at...read article: Forex Spread Betting January 2010.
Forex Spread Bets December 2009, updated 01-Jan-10
FX market update: Interesting movements in the Forex spreads markets are just about the only thing worth focussing on at the moment. Yesterday the Dollar waxed and waned, managing a...read article: Forex Spread Bets December 2009.
Forex Spread Trading December 2009, updated 18-Dec-09
FX market update: The momentum against Cable was compounded by some negative UK retail sales which flew in the face of recent reports from retailers like...read article: Forex Spread Trading December 2009.
Forex Spread Betting December 2009, updated 04-Dec-09
FX market update: The Euro managed to exactly match our commented range of $1.5140 to $1.5040/60 in yesterday's session. It traded at...read article: Forex Spread Betting December 2009.
Forex Spread Trading November 2009, updated 20-Nov-09
FX market update: Currency markets are mixed this morning but largely in favour of the Dollar. Cable is heading lower as once again it fails to test...read article: Forex Spread Trading November 2009.
Forex Spread Betting November 2009, updated 06-Nov-09
FX market update: Currency markets are turning a bit Dollar unfriendly once more with the Euro regaining the $1.4860 level. The Euro had been...read article: Forex Spread Betting November 2009.
Forex Spread Trading October 2009, updated 23-Oct-09
FX market update: Trading continues to be very contained in the EUR/USD cross with the $1.49 level seeming to hold an irresistible attraction. Last night it seemed that...read article: Forex Spread Trading October 2009.
Forex Spread Betting October 2009, updated 09-Oct-09
FX market update: Mervyn King muttered about a weak currency helping exporters but I have to say that this commentator is yet to see any evidence of...read article: Forex Spread Betting October 2009.
Forex Spread Trading September 2009, updated 25-Sep-09
FX market update: The weakness of the Pound versus other majors has merely been reflected by the Dollars own lack of strength. Versus the Euro the cross seems unable to...read article: Forex Spread Trading September 2009.
Forex Spread Betting September 2009, updated 11-Sep-09
FX market update: As mentioned many times over the last few months the Dollar continues to suffer from what looks like benign neglect from the...read article: Forex Spread Betting September 2009.
Forex Spread Betting August 2009, updated 28-Aug-09
FX market update: The pound/dollar range at $1.62 to $1.66 eventually held the upper hand and after testing the markets below $1.62 the volume attraction of this range reasserted its pull. In truth the opening hours today have...read article: Forex Spread Betting August 2009.
Forex Spread Trading August 2009, updated 14-Aug-09
FX market update: On the currency front the pound made a big rebound from the lows with the Yen (especially) falling back after a strong run. The sharp spike lower in GBP/JPY in a frantic...read article: Forex Spread Trading August 2009.
Forex Spread Trading July 2009, updated 31-Jul-09
FX market update: The equity market rally though took its toil as investors sold the dollar in favour of equities. Sterling did well out of...read article: Forex Spread Trading July 2009.
Forex Spread Betting July 2009, updated 17-Jul-09
FX market update: The dollar is making a little ground back against sterling. Rather like the equity markets there is a lack of direction and a real tussle between the
...read article: Forex Spread Betting July 2009.
Forex Spread Bets June 2009, updated 03-Jul-09
FX market update: Sterling is also managing to sit tight against some serious tests of support. Cable has drifted sideways through the short term upward trend line which is marginally worrying and this may give cause for a move back into the $1.58 to $1.60 region. However sometimes trend lines just lose their...read article: Forex Spread Bets June 2009.
Forex Spread Trading June 2009, updated 19-Jun-09
FX market update: Forex markets must have read my comment yesterday as the pound made an almost carbon copy move to Wednesday's price action. The total net effect over the last three days has been...read article: Forex Spread Trading June 2009.
Forex Spread Betting June 2009, updated 05-Jun-09
FX market update: Even though the GBP/USD spread betting market has fallen from a high of $1.6670 on Wednesday to the current $1.6050 there have been some big rallies amidst the 6 cent fall. Clients have been trying to buy into...read article: Forex Spread Betting June 2009.
Forex Spread Trading May 2009, updated 22-May-09
FX market update: The same happened to GBP/EUR which saw a very sharp fall yesterday morning, but recovered afterwards throughout the rest of the day. At the moment though, the euro is...read article: Forex Spread Trading May 2009.
Forex Spread Betting May 2009, updated 08-May-09
FX market: Sterling's good recent run came to an abrupt end after the BoE announced its next tranche of asset purchases. The market was taken a little by surprise as many were expecting the Bank not...read article: Forex Spread Betting May 2009.
Forex Spread Trading April 2009, updated 24-Apr-09
FX market: EUR/USD is back above $1.3000, currently at $1.3070 with the Euro making a bit of ground on Sterling as well as GBP/EUR heads back towards...read article: Forex Spread Trading April 2009.
Forex Spread Betting April 2009, updated 10-Apr-09
FX market: With EUR/USD, our spread betting accounts are very much two way with buyers matching sellers and in truth it is difficult to argue that ...read article: Forex Spread Betting April 2009.
Forex Spread Trading March 2009, updated 27-Mar-09
FX market update: FX markets are still wary of the recent indication that the US might not be opposed to the creation of a 'Super Currency' run by the IMF, the mere mention of which sent the dollar...read article: Forex Spread Trading March 2009.
Forex Spread Betting March 2009, updated 13-Mar-09
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Forex Spread Trading February 2009, updated 27-Feb-09
FX market update: Against the Euro, the pound seems to have settled into a £1.1000 to £1.1500 range...read article: Forex Spread Trading February 2009.
Forex Spread Betting February 2009, updated 13-Feb-09
FX market: Virtually every major market, having tried valiantly to break out of the current trading ranges, is now pretty much where they closed on Wednesday evening. GBP/USD had a solid look at...read article: Forex Spread Betting February 2009.
Forex Spread Bets January 2009, updated 31-Jan-09
FX market update: Currency markets continue to be the focal point with the battle for the GBP/USD rate to get...read article: Forex Spread Bets January 2009.
Forex Spread Trading January 2009, updated 16-Jan-09
FX market: Strange moves overnight in the currency markets will not have pleased many as the Pound ?took off? in the first few hours of trading opening some...read article: Forex Spread Trading January 2009.
Forex Spread Betting January 2009, updated 02-Jan-09
FX market update: the 'dollar bulls' remain positive about the outlook for the dollar as they argue it could replace the Yen as the new carry trade currency. This also indicates that the FX markets are preparing for...read article: Forex Spread Betting January 2009.
Forex Spread Trading December 2008, updated 19-Dec-08
FX market: The pound has fallen a minimum of 25% against even the weakest of the other major currencies this year and in the same period our...read article: Forex Spread Trading December 2008.
Forex Spread Betting December 2008, updated 05-Dec-08
FX market update: On the Currency front the cut in rates had little effect, there was a brief fall in the Euro and the Pound followed by a short covering rally and now we...read article: Forex Spread Betting December 2008.
Forex Spread Trading November 2008, updated 21-Nov-08
FX market: The GBP / USD spread is now $1.5082 - $1.5085 and, to be honest, there is little in the way of resistance or support around the current price. The short term falling trend line is now at...read article: Forex Spread Trading November 2008.
Forex Spread Betting November 2008, updated 07-Nov-08
FX market update: The volatility in the GBP / USD market is becoming ever more extreme with the last eleven trading days averaging over 5¢ a day high/low range (3%). This variation represents a...read article: Forex Spread Betting November 2008.
Forex Spread Trading October 2008, updated 26-Oct-08
FX market: Traders looking for some kind of support have seen their hopes wiped away as the pound and euro plumb depths not seen for...read article: Forex Spread Trading October 2008.
Forex Spread Betting October 2008, updated 10-Oct-08
FX market update: Trading in the Forex markets has been just as violent as the equities as the pound has fallen dramatically out of favour versus the Yen and Dollar. It appeared, briefly, that confidence in...read article: Forex Spread Betting October 2008.
Forex Spread Trading September 2008, updated 26-Sep-08
FX market: The Forex markets must have been reading my comment yesterday as Cable failed at almost exactly the resistance of $1.8650 and then moved down to attack the support at $1.8450. Once this had...read article: Forex Spread Trading September 2008.
Forex Spread Betting September 2008, updated 12-Sep-08
FX market update: On the FX spread betting front the inability of the Pound, Euro or Yen to hold onto the gains versus the dollar do not bode well in coming sessions. The currency markets are settling in to the new ranges caused by...read article: Forex Spread Betting September 2008.
Forex Spread Trade August 2008, updated 29-Aug-08
FX market update: The Euro / Dollar rate is off its lows this morning around the $1.4693 mark and continues to test...read article: Forex Spread Trade August 2008.
Forex Spread Betting August 2008, updated 15-Aug-08
FX market update: We are now sitting just above the massive 2006 GBP / USD support level at around...read article: Forex Spread Betting August 2008.
Forex Spread Trading July 2008, updated 01-Aug-08
FX market update: In the Forex spread betting markets the dollar and yen are looking to make gains after the...read article: Forex Spread Trading July 2008.
Forex Spread Betting July 2008, updated 18-Jul-08
FX market update: In the Forex Spread Betting world Cable continues to hover around the $2.00 dollar mark but the Euro has, for the time being, given up on the...read article: Forex Spread Betting July 2008.
Forex Financial Spread Bet July 2008, updated 04-Jul-08
Forex market update: The weak dollar is causing much of the recent commodity spike and the laissez faire attitude of the US administration to the value of the Greenback is coming back to haunt them in the shape of...read article: Forex Financial Spread Bet July 2008.
Forex Financial Spread Trading June 2008, updated 20-Jun-08
Forex market update: Every time the pound looks to be in danger of a fall to below $1.94 buyers come in and take it back up to around $1.98 to $2.00. Cable has been in a falling wedge formation since...read article: Forex Financial Spread Trading June 2008.
Forex Financial Spread Betting June 2008, updated 06-Jun-08
Forex market update: The pound was dragged a little in the Euros wake yesterday but even so lost over a Euro cent in the post Trichet move. The GBP / USD spread is currently at $1.9581 - $1.9584 this morning and is still at the lower end of the recent trading ranges. Any clients who bought into...read article: Forex Financial Spread Betting June 2008.
Forex Spread Bet May 2008, updated 23-May-08
Forex market update: Sterling had one of its surging days yesterday moving higher against every other major currency. We have seen some very heavy buying in the Pound and Euro vs the lower interest rate currencies (JPY, CHF, USD) in the last few sessions as traders...read article: Forex Spread Bet May 2008.
Forex Trading May 2008, updated 09-May-08
Forex market update: Unfortunately the FX markets, which seemed to be selling the Pound and Euro in anticipation of a rate cut from both the ECB and MPC only reversed for the Euro and not for the Pound. Sterling is now weakening again against all the majors and yet another attack on the...read article: Forex Trading May 2008.
Forex Trading April 2008, updated 25-Apr-08
Forex market update: Looking at the Forex Spread Betting markets the Pound actually managed a good day for a change as the Euro and Yen suffered. Of course the real winner was the US Dollar. Cable is now at the bottom of it recent range with dealers probing for any weakness below...read article: Forex Trading April 2008.
Forex Spread Bets April 2008, updated 11-Apr-08
Forex market trading update: The dollar is getting a knock this morning weaker against the majority of other currencies. Sterling attempted to make some sort of recovery against the euro yesterday dipping below the £0.8000 mark. However, since...read article: Forex Spread Bets April 2008.
Forex March Spread Trading, updated 28-Mar-08
Forex markets: On the FX markets the Dollar continues to hold it own for the time being but the pound seems to have hit something of a brick wall overnight. All the majors are unchanged except for the pound which is down 80 pips against the greenback (under $2 again)...and is at a new all time low versus the Euro at £0.7894 which means that we are now over 15%...read article: Forex March Spread Trading.
Real-time Forex Prices and Charts, updated 15-Feb-08
Forex pricing information: On the currency trading front we are very quiet and with no news expected today it may well remain that way for the early trading session. GBP / USD looks to be quite happy at levels near to $1.9700 but we have made a habit of...read article: Real-time Forex Prices and Charts.
UK Forex Spread Trading, updated 01-Feb-08
UK Forex Spread Trading: FX markets are absolutely comatose at the moment and we are trading and re-trading over the same ranges. The pound is pretty much...read article: UK Forex Spread Trading.
Forex January Spread Betting, updated 18-Jan-08
FX markets remain peaceful with the Dollar and Pound continuing to recoup some of the recent losses. The Sterling/Yen cross is now hovering just below the 211.90 support/resistance at a spread of...read article: Forex January Spread Betting.
Forex Trading Online, updated 21-Dec-07
Find out where you can Trade FX Online for free plus your FX trading questions answered, tips on getting free FX charts, real time prices and...read article: Forex Trading Online.
Forex Futures Trading, updated 07-Dec-07
Where to trade Forex Futures plus updated Forex trading news and the most popular Forex questions answered....read article: Forex Futures Trading.
Forex Broker, updated 23-Nov-07
Where to find free Forex Brokers plus regular Forex financial trading news as well as the most popular Forex questions answered....read article: Forex Broker.
Forex Platform, updated 09-Nov-07
Where to find free Forex Platforms plus updated Forex trading news as well as the most popular Forex queries answered....read article: Forex Platform.
Forex Software, updated 26-Oct-07
Where to find free Forex Software information plus updated Forex trading news as well as the most popular Forex queries answered....read article: Forex Software.
Forex Prices, updated 04-Feb-08
Where to find free Forex Prices plus updated Forex news as well as your top Forex questions answered....read article: Forex Prices.
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