Sterling seems to have acquired a rubber ball status with the market rallying, falling, rallying, falling on an almost daily basis.
Yesterday was the turn of the bulls and today it is the bears. Yet again we are back down near to the $1.4150 heavy support region versus the dollar.
It looks like investors, who absolutely coined it in on the bounce yesterday, are buying into the support once more. Playing the ranges can be a very lucrative activity just so long as traders are aware that, on a break, positions should have tight stops in place.
Against the Euro, the pound seems to have settled into a £1.1000 to £1.1500 range since the end of January after the attempts to get to parity were defeated.
With the economic situation starting to affect even the most sound of States the arguments against the Pound, in particular, are starting to lose some of their power. With every nation state struggling to match budgets we all seem to be sitting in glass house tying to stop throwing stones. As more and more pressure is applied across the globe the historical safe haven status of the dollar might well reassert itself (even though the US has its own problems).
Forex Spread Betting, 26 Feb 2009
The pound ran into a brick wall yesterday and we swiftly returned to the $1.4150 mark which seems to have been our base level for a month or so.
The failure to make any headway above $1.4650 weighed heavily on sentiment and weak longs were hammered throughout the session. Over the last year or so big daily falls have always been followed by further weakness and punters should be wary that this move does not have a similar follow through.
Support remains at the aforementioned £1.4150 and we are likely to see some buying here if we get back to the price (the GBP/USD spread is currently around $1.4205-$1.4208). However, if it fails then there may be a sharp reaction to the downside. Our clients are buying but placing tight stops.
Forex Spread Betting, 25 Feb 2009
Sterling gave up a little yesterday versus the Euro and Dollar but seems keen to take it back in early action this morning. As mentioned several times recently the pound does appear to have regained some of its allure since mid January, around the same time its death was announced across the globe.
Whilst it is difficult to see what is suddenly so attractive about Sterling, this is not actually the important question. The important question is what is so much better about the prospects for the Yen or Euro as above Sterling? They all have some serious structural failings but the Pound might be considered cheap and the others expensive.
With the dollar bouncing sharply against the Yen, precious metals suddenly started to look a tad expensive. That probably precipitated some of the reversal in Gold and Silver yesterday as the Far East decided that profits were the better part of valour just for the moment.
Forex Spread Betting, 24 Feb 2009
Currency markets continue to play cat and mouse but as mentioned a few times in recent weeks the Yen seems to be finally losing its lustre. The massive overvaluation of the currency was causing heavy losses in Japan and with the economy yet again slipping into recession (put another record on) the fact that the carry trade has now completely disappeared is not a good enough reason to buy it versus everything else.
The double bottom at ¥87.00 for the USD/JPY recorded in December and January and the “W” formation being built may well indicate a longer term target back up at ¥105.
Meanwhile the Euro continues to look a tad weak as it failed yet again to follow the Pound higher. While it is up this morning against the greenback the downside still looks to be the favoured direction although a close above $1.3080 might indicate a reversal of fortunes. With the EUR/USD price currently at $1.2741-$1.2743 this is pretty academic at the moment of course.
On the downside the obvious target is the lows of the current move at around $1.2500 and below here the long, long term trend support currently at around $1.2420. This major support was attacked back in October 08 and the failure to breach is was the signal for the bounce back up to $1.47 in November and December.
Forex Spread Betting, 23 Feb 2009
On the currency front, the Pound seems to be holding solid against all attempts to push it lower and while the situation in the good old UK cannot be considered remotely hearty the same can be said for virtually everyone else.
In an environment of contracting export/import flow the big industrial nations may find that their perceived currency values have become a tad extended for the current situation.
Corporate Japan is reeling from the double whammy of falling market demand and a massively overvalued Yen. Not only this but the Euro is now becoming ever more fragile as a project rather than as a currency. The cataclysm of a failure would be enormous and so we can expect some of the stronger members to come to the aid of the weaker but you have to ask yourself ‘where does it end’?
Once you start throwing good money after bad at what point do you stop, having now dug yourself even deeper into the hole? The weaker economies will have no incentive to clean up their acts and the populations of the stronger will become ever more aggrieved that scarce funding resources are directed abroad.
Price Update:
GBP / USD closed last week down -$0.011 at $1.432 (down -0.76%)
USD / JPY closed last week up ¥2.2 at ¥94.2 (up 2.39%)
EUR / USD closed last week down -$0.029 at $1.262 (down -2.25%)
EUR / GBP closed last week down -£0.014 at £0.881 (down -1.56%)
Dealing remains fast a furious in the currencies with the pound falling back from the $1.4450 level in heavy selling yesterday afternoon. The dollar seems to be gaining ground versus most majors at the moment as the ‘flight to quality’ gathers pace once again.
I realise that calling the Dollar an asset of quality these days might seem strange but with every economy on the planet seemingly in free fall it comes under the heading of ‘the best of a bad lot’.
In extremis the euro project just might fall apart (although I do not consider it likely) but the chaos of attempting to divest an entire economy from the currency bloc would be… interesting.
Forex Spread Betting, 19 Feb 2009
Sterling and the euro are on the bid against the dollar both up around 1% this morning.
It would seem that the dollar is coming under some pressure ahead of today and tomorrow’s inflation data. Resistance is being tested in the euro as I write around the $1.2650 level and sellers have come in as the RSI technical indicator is over the 70 mark which is meant to signal an over bought market. The technical situation is similar for sterling/dollar as it tests the $1.4400 resistance level, but currently just below there at $1.4380.
Forex Spread Betting, 18 Feb 2009
Once again clients bought into weakness in GBP/USD where the $1.4150 level mentioned in yesterday’s column held good for a bounce.
Sterling recovered somewhat against the Euro as traders seem to be falling out of love with the prospects for the European project. The news that the Germans may come in to bolster the debt requirements of some of the weaker members merely highlighted the dangers involved.
Over the last 18 months the perils of throwing good money after bad have been underlined again and again and it will be a brave Chancellor who would propose undermining the German’s hard fought and hard earned financial stability to save what is (after all) a political ideal.
Selling pressure on the pound is still there but does not seem (at least to me) to be as powerful as in the recent past. New lows are not being even remotely challenged in each attempt to hammer the Pound down. It might (but only might mind you) be pertinent to point out that there is a great deal more room for manoeuvre on the upside than on the down.
Forex Spread Betting, 17 Feb 2009
Sterling has fallen (yet again) overnight and we are back at the $1.4150 support mentioned yesterday. However, we are seeing some buying from clients at this level.
The problem remains that the pound is still in its downward trend cycle and comments from Mr Bean of the BoE that a weak pound will help the recovery give credence to the view that the Government is happy with a weak sterling policy. There seem to be a lot of Mr Bean type characters these days.
I would have thought that all the evidence of the illusion concerning weak currency growth, built up over the last 50 or 60 years, might have percolated into the Treasury by now.
European partners will not be happy if the UK is seen to be devaluing to their short term disadvantage and the Chancellor or the Governor may be called on to make some reverse comment espousing continued support for a strong pound. Such is politics.
It appears that the holiday in Val D’Isere or Tenerife is going to be a great deal more expensive from now on (yet another nail in the coffin of the UK’s trade deficit)
Forex Spread Betting, 16 Feb 2009
Currency markets continue to wing all over the place but the losers this morning are the Pound (naturally) and the Euro. The Euro continues to suffer stresses associated with the EC group and the rumours that Germany might be asked to bail out Ireland will not exactly have helped.
The fact that the UK government might have to dip into its pockets once again to help out the banks has harmed sterling and there does appear to be some value at the $1.4150 region versus the dollar. Unfortunately there is no getting away from the fact that the pound remains, at the moment, in its long term downtrend but we need to confirm this with a move below $1.3500 soon.
The longer we remain in the $1.4000 to $1.5000 range the better chances for a serious pull become. We are seeing buyers of the pound at these levels and it is difficult to completely disagree with their analysis of a potential move higher.
Price Update:
GBP / USD closed last week down -$0.030 at $1.443 (down -2.04%)
USD / JPY closed last week up ¥0.4 at ¥92.0 (up 0.44%)
EUR / USD closed last week up $0.006 at $1.291 (up 0.47%)
EUR / GBP closed last week up £0.023 at £0.895 (up 2.64%)
Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Forex Spread Trading February 2009' by DB, updated 27-Feb-09
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