Forex Spread Trading December 2009
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Forex Spread Trading
A regular Forex spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Forex spread trading update, click here.
Forex Spreads, 18 Dec 2009
The risk aversion move yesterday meant the Dollar made substantial gains, against Sterling in particular.
The momentum against Cable was compounded by some negative UK retail sales which flew in the face of recent reports from retailers like M&S and Next who’ve actually released numbers that have surprised to the upside.
The numbers were also expected to come in slightly better as the belief was that consumers would splurge before the VAT hike in January. However, this doesn’t seem to have materialised.
Cable found support around $1.6100 and this morning is trading at $1.6184. Support remains at $1.6100 to $1.6075 for the near term as the pair forms a little upward channel in this bounce from the lows it formed yesterday. Below there a test of the $1.5700 October low that can’t be discounted.
The Fed’s slightly more hawkish comments on Wednesday not only allowed the Dollar to make good ground, but the move was also assisted by short covering. The Euro has for once has been the whipping boy with Euro Dollar down some 5% from in the last few days as opposed to Cable’s 3% decline in the same time.
Forex Spreads, 17 Dec 2009
Given the current concerns over Eurozone debt, dealers are naturally concentrating on Euro weakness and the currency has fallen to levels not seen since August.
We have commented continuously through November that there seemed to be nervousness about prices above $1.5100 for all the talk of Dollar weakness.
We are now down at $1.4400, having dropped 7 cents in the last two weeks, and the strong upward trend line gave way on the 4th of this month.
There is support from $1.4370 to $1.4400 but it must be admitted that the direction looks pretty one way at the moment. That said, support levels are what they say and we are seeing strong Euro buying in the early hours of today’s session.
Sterling has also fallen to support at $1.6200 and we are seeing interest at this level as well.
Over the last eight sessions the Cable cross has battered away at $1.6175 to $1.6200 on an almost daily basis with markets continually rebounding from the level but then failing to make much headway in the other direction either and generally peaking out in the mid $1.63’s
The weakness in the Euro has given the Dax a bit of a boost. Whilst the FTSE and US markets struggled to hold onto yesterday’s gains, the Dax had no such problems reaching a new traded high for the year.
Forex Spreads, 16 Dec 2009
Interestingly, the rise in equities has not been met with the usual Dollar weakness that in the past has seemed to move in line with equity rallies ever since March.
You would expect the Dollar to weaken across the board if indices were on the up, however, so far this morning the Australian Dollar and Yen are both weaker.
The Dollar broadly seems to have found a platform of support and there is already talk of a decoupling of the relationship between strengthening equities and a weakening Dollar.
The US Dollar has received such a significant pounding this year that anyone who joins the selling frenzy will have been way too late to a party which is showing signs of wrapping up.
The Dollar is broadly stronger this morning and overall currency markets are flat, except for the Australian Dollar which is suffering further after the dovish comments from their central bank.
Forex Spreads, 15 Dec 2009
Currency markets are getting ever more dollar friendly as the Euro struggles from both its high valuation and from the increasing fears over the viability of the entire Euro project remaining in place.
I speak as a fan of the Euro zone ‘experiment’, but as a commentator it must be admitted that the one size fits all sales patter is just not sustainable on a long term view.
Several nations should never have been allowed in. Nevertheless, politicians, who generally want ‘posterity’ over ‘prosperity’, were allowed to wave the whole “train set through onto the new rails.” This came even though a few of the locomotives were operating on a different wheel gauge entirely.
The Dollar has the overriding advantage of history in its favour. The currency has been around for over two hundred years and is backed by what is still the biggest single trading nation on earth.
The Euro is still very young and will no doubt continue to have the odd teething problem for decades to come. It is backed by Germany and France but these two are counter pointed by a raft of weaker nations who have significant ability to weaken the whole.
As we look around for the next ‘brick’ to drop, a crisis of confidence in the Euro project might be sneaking up on us.
Forex Spreads, 14 Dec 2009
Forex markets saw an initial flurry of activity early this morning after the Dubai news came out but have since then calmed down.
Cable seems to be sitting tentatively some 40 points just above the support at $1.6200. It’s difficult to call right now if the recent weakness will continue or whether the cross will repeat its past movements and head back higher from these lows.
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Forex Spreads, 11 Dec 2009
Currency markets are likewise stuck in very tight ranges at the moment with the Euro/Dollar seemingly unable to breach the major support at $1.4680 but conversely struggling to make it much above $1.4360.
Cable seems to be maintaining its sang-froid in the face of prophesies of doom and we may find that the news of its death is greatly exaggerated.
Sterling does not seem happy below $1.6300 as traders try to get a handle on the growing Dollar bullishness which seems to have arisen out of nowhere.
Dollar weakness has almost become a belief system all of its own as Obama and Geithner have, for all of their protestations, appeared to be running a weak currency policy as a way out of the economic problem of too much debt.
The Dollar is in trouble, of that there is no doubt, but the US economy is already responding strongly to the medicine of lax fiscal policy and the aforementioned weak currency. If the rebound in growth does gain firm traction then the weak Dollar story loses one of its central arguments.
Sterling is struggling to stay below $1.6300 but is likewise not exactly exuberant above $1.6340 and we have failed above here on both of the last two sessions. Our clients are playing the tight range but must, of course, beware a break out as we could quickly see $1.6450 or, if $1.6175 is breached, a renewed attack to the downside.
Forex Spreads, 10 Dec 2009
On the currency front the Euro held at the $1.4680 support level, mentioned ad nauseam, yet again yesterday although the bounces do seem to be getting weaker and weaker.
Not just from here but from previous supports as well. For very long term traders it has to be admitted that any sale of Euro above $1.40 is probably going to eventually pay dividends.
Many of the attractions for the Euro have nothing whatsoever to do with the performance of the Euro Bloc economies and these attractions will, naturally, wax and wane over the long term. At the moment the currency is in the ascendancy but these things turn.
As mentioned support is at $1.4680 resistance is at $1.4760/80 and then $1.4800.
Forex Spreads, 9 Dec 2009
Currency markets are turning Pound unfriendly again and will probably remain that way until we get the Budget update this afternoon. Cable is now at $1.6190, the low for a couple of months, and to be honest it is anybodies guess as to what will happen from here.
The worst case scenario is that Mr Darling’s comments are taken badly and the market loses confidence in the ability, or willingness, of our lords and masters to get to grips with the deficits.
If real action is put off again until after the election, patience may wear thin and the Pound and Gilt market might take a real bath.
On the plus side, though, we do know all of this already and markets have remained unfazed up to now. If you want to short the Pound, one assumes that you already are. Some of the support for Sterling over the last months might be viewed in this vein.
Forex Spreads, 8 Dec 2009
The Currency markets may become the exception to the current range trading if the recent strength in the Dollar gains traction. Particularly if the breaking of the long term bear Dollar trend line, versus the Euro, in the last few sessions is not reversed.
Unfortunately for Euro bears the price supports at $1.4800 and $1.4680, approximately, have yet to be convincingly defeated. As a result, the bulls, looking for a return to an attempt at $1.5140 and on to the highs of 2008 at the $1.60, are still in the game.
All we can definitely state is that the general range between $1.4680 and $1.5060 remains the game in town.
Forex Spreads, 7 Dec 2009
Banks over in the States have been busily repaying all the money 'lent' to them by the Fed. With the recent better than expected data, this may well lead to revision over the prospects fro further major weakness in the Dollar.
As we cautioned in our comment on Friday morning, the news flow seems to be starting to be more Dollar favourable.
The Euro cross responded by breaking through the medium/long term bullish trend line in place since March, at around $1.4950. The weakness in early trade this morning shows no sign that dealers are keen to try to regain the Euro bull momentum just yet.
There is support at $1.4725 and $1.4685 and of course there is some interest around the $1.48 region as well. To the upside $1.4860, the old price level support/resistance, may prove difficult to regain and it appears that $1.5060 and $1.5140 eventually proved too much of a nut to crack.
Forex Spreads, 6 Dec 2009
Price update:
- GBP / USD closed last week up $0.004 at $1.653 (up 0.24% week-on-week)
- USD / JPY closed last week up ¥3.3 at ¥90.0 (up 3.81% week-on-week)
- EUR / USD closed last week down -$0.009 at $1.489 (down -0.6% week-on-week)
- EUR / GBP closed last week down -£0.008 at £0.90 (down -0.88% week-on-week)
Also see:
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Forex Spread Trading December 2009' by DB, updated 18-Dec-09
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Forex Spread Betting March 2010, updated 12-Mar-10
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Forex Spread Betting February 2010, updated 12-Feb-10
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Forex Spread Trading January 2010, updated 29-Jan-10
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Forex Spread Betting January 2010, updated 15-Jan-10
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Forex Spread Bets December 2009, updated 01-Jan-10
FX market update: Interesting movements in the Forex spreads markets are just about the only thing worth focussing on at the moment. Yesterday the Dollar waxed and waned, managing a...read article: Forex Spread Bets December 2009.
Forex Spread Trading December 2009, updated 18-Dec-09
FX market update: The momentum against Cable was compounded by some negative UK retail sales which flew in the face of recent reports from retailers like...read article: Forex Spread Trading December 2009.
Forex Spread Betting December 2009, updated 04-Dec-09
FX market update: The Euro managed to exactly match our commented range of $1.5140 to $1.5040/60 in yesterday's session. It traded at...read article: Forex Spread Betting December 2009.
Forex Spread Trading November 2009, updated 20-Nov-09
FX market update: Currency markets are mixed this morning but largely in favour of the Dollar. Cable is heading lower as once again it fails to test...read article: Forex Spread Trading November 2009.
Forex Spread Betting November 2009, updated 06-Nov-09
FX market update: Currency markets are turning a bit Dollar unfriendly once more with the Euro regaining the $1.4860 level. The Euro had been...read article: Forex Spread Betting November 2009.
Forex Spread Trading October 2009, updated 23-Oct-09
FX market update: Trading continues to be very contained in the EUR/USD cross with the $1.49 level seeming to hold an irresistible attraction. Last night it seemed that...read article: Forex Spread Trading October 2009.
Forex Spread Betting October 2009, updated 09-Oct-09
FX market update: Mervyn King muttered about a weak currency helping exporters but I have to say that this commentator is yet to see any evidence of...read article: Forex Spread Betting October 2009.
Forex Spread Trading September 2009, updated 25-Sep-09
FX market update: The weakness of the Pound versus other majors has merely been reflected by the Dollars own lack of strength. Versus the Euro the cross seems unable to...read article: Forex Spread Trading September 2009.
Forex Spread Betting September 2009, updated 11-Sep-09
FX market update: As mentioned many times over the last few months the Dollar continues to suffer from what looks like benign neglect from the...read article: Forex Spread Betting September 2009.
Forex Spread Betting August 2009, updated 28-Aug-09
FX market update: The pound/dollar range at $1.62 to $1.66 eventually held the upper hand and after testing the markets below $1.62 the volume attraction of this range reasserted its pull. In truth the opening hours today have...read article: Forex Spread Betting August 2009.
Forex Spread Trading August 2009, updated 14-Aug-09
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Forex Spread Trading July 2009, updated 31-Jul-09
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Forex Spread Betting July 2009, updated 17-Jul-09
FX market update: The dollar is making a little ground back against sterling. Rather like the equity markets there is a lack of direction and a real tussle between the
...read article: Forex Spread Betting July 2009.
Forex Spread Bets June 2009, updated 03-Jul-09
FX market update: Sterling is also managing to sit tight against some serious tests of support. Cable has drifted sideways through the short term upward trend line which is marginally worrying and this may give cause for a move back into the $1.58 to $1.60 region. However sometimes trend lines just lose their...read article: Forex Spread Bets June 2009.
Forex Spread Trading June 2009, updated 19-Jun-09
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Forex Spread Betting June 2009, updated 05-Jun-09
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Forex Spread Trading May 2009, updated 22-May-09
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Forex Spread Betting February 2009, updated 13-Feb-09
FX market: Virtually every major market, having tried valiantly to break out of the current trading ranges, is now pretty much where they closed on Wednesday evening. GBP/USD had a solid look at...read article: Forex Spread Betting February 2009.
Forex Spread Bets January 2009, updated 31-Jan-09
FX market update: Currency markets continue to be the focal point with the battle for the GBP/USD rate to get...read article: Forex Spread Bets January 2009.
Forex Spread Trading January 2009, updated 16-Jan-09
FX market: Strange moves overnight in the currency markets will not have pleased many as the Pound ?took off? in the first few hours of trading opening some...read article: Forex Spread Trading January 2009.
Forex Spread Betting January 2009, updated 02-Jan-09
FX market update: the 'dollar bulls' remain positive about the outlook for the dollar as they argue it could replace the Yen as the new carry trade currency. This also indicates that the FX markets are preparing for...read article: Forex Spread Betting January 2009.
Forex Spread Trading December 2008, updated 19-Dec-08
FX market: The pound has fallen a minimum of 25% against even the weakest of the other major currencies this year and in the same period our...read article: Forex Spread Trading December 2008.
Forex Spread Betting December 2008, updated 05-Dec-08
FX market update: On the Currency front the cut in rates had little effect, there was a brief fall in the Euro and the Pound followed by a short covering rally and now we...read article: Forex Spread Betting December 2008.
Forex Spread Trading November 2008, updated 21-Nov-08
FX market: The GBP / USD spread is now $1.5082 - $1.5085 and, to be honest, there is little in the way of resistance or support around the current price. The short term falling trend line is now at...read article: Forex Spread Trading November 2008.
Forex Spread Betting November 2008, updated 07-Nov-08
FX market update: The volatility in the GBP / USD market is becoming ever more extreme with the last eleven trading days averaging over 5¢ a day high/low range (3%). This variation represents a...read article: Forex Spread Betting November 2008.
Forex Spread Trading October 2008, updated 26-Oct-08
FX market: Traders looking for some kind of support have seen their hopes wiped away as the pound and euro plumb depths not seen for...read article: Forex Spread Trading October 2008.
Forex Spread Betting October 2008, updated 10-Oct-08
FX market update: Trading in the Forex markets has been just as violent as the equities as the pound has fallen dramatically out of favour versus the Yen and Dollar. It appeared, briefly, that confidence in...read article: Forex Spread Betting October 2008.
Forex Spread Trading September 2008, updated 26-Sep-08
FX market: The Forex markets must have been reading my comment yesterday as Cable failed at almost exactly the resistance of $1.8650 and then moved down to attack the support at $1.8450. Once this had...read article: Forex Spread Trading September 2008.
Forex Spread Betting September 2008, updated 12-Sep-08
FX market update: On the FX spread betting front the inability of the Pound, Euro or Yen to hold onto the gains versus the dollar do not bode well in coming sessions. The currency markets are settling in to the new ranges caused by...read article: Forex Spread Betting September 2008.
Forex Spread Trade August 2008, updated 29-Aug-08
FX market update: The Euro / Dollar rate is off its lows this morning around the $1.4693 mark and continues to test...read article: Forex Spread Trade August 2008.
Forex Spread Betting August 2008, updated 15-Aug-08
FX market update: We are now sitting just above the massive 2006 GBP / USD support level at around...read article: Forex Spread Betting August 2008.
Forex Spread Trading July 2008, updated 01-Aug-08
FX market update: In the Forex spread betting markets the dollar and yen are looking to make gains after the...read article: Forex Spread Trading July 2008.
Forex Spread Betting July 2008, updated 18-Jul-08
FX market update: In the Forex Spread Betting world Cable continues to hover around the $2.00 dollar mark but the Euro has, for the time being, given up on the...read article: Forex Spread Betting July 2008.
Forex Financial Spread Bet July 2008, updated 04-Jul-08
Forex market update: The weak dollar is causing much of the recent commodity spike and the laissez faire attitude of the US administration to the value of the Greenback is coming back to haunt them in the shape of...read article: Forex Financial Spread Bet July 2008.
Forex Financial Spread Trading June 2008, updated 20-Jun-08
Forex market update: Every time the pound looks to be in danger of a fall to below $1.94 buyers come in and take it back up to around $1.98 to $2.00. Cable has been in a falling wedge formation since...read article: Forex Financial Spread Trading June 2008.
Forex Financial Spread Betting June 2008, updated 06-Jun-08
Forex market update: The pound was dragged a little in the Euros wake yesterday but even so lost over a Euro cent in the post Trichet move. The GBP / USD spread is currently at $1.9581 - $1.9584 this morning and is still at the lower end of the recent trading ranges. Any clients who bought into...read article: Forex Financial Spread Betting June 2008.
Forex Spread Bet May 2008, updated 23-May-08
Forex market update: Sterling had one of its surging days yesterday moving higher against every other major currency. We have seen some very heavy buying in the Pound and Euro vs the lower interest rate currencies (JPY, CHF, USD) in the last few sessions as traders...read article: Forex Spread Bet May 2008.
Forex Trading May 2008, updated 09-May-08
Forex market update: Unfortunately the FX markets, which seemed to be selling the Pound and Euro in anticipation of a rate cut from both the ECB and MPC only reversed for the Euro and not for the Pound. Sterling is now weakening again against all the majors and yet another attack on the...read article: Forex Trading May 2008.
Forex Trading April 2008, updated 25-Apr-08
Forex market update: Looking at the Forex Spread Betting markets the Pound actually managed a good day for a change as the Euro and Yen suffered. Of course the real winner was the US Dollar. Cable is now at the bottom of it recent range with dealers probing for any weakness below...read article: Forex Trading April 2008.
Forex Spread Bets April 2008, updated 11-Apr-08
Forex market trading update: The dollar is getting a knock this morning weaker against the majority of other currencies. Sterling attempted to make some sort of recovery against the euro yesterday dipping below the £0.8000 mark. However, since...read article: Forex Spread Bets April 2008.
Forex March Spread Trading, updated 28-Mar-08
Forex markets: On the FX markets the Dollar continues to hold it own for the time being but the pound seems to have hit something of a brick wall overnight. All the majors are unchanged except for the pound which is down 80 pips against the greenback (under $2 again)...and is at a new all time low versus the Euro at £0.7894 which means that we are now over 15%...read article: Forex March Spread Trading.
Real-time Forex Prices and Charts, updated 15-Feb-08
Forex pricing information: On the currency trading front we are very quiet and with no news expected today it may well remain that way for the early trading session. GBP / USD looks to be quite happy at levels near to $1.9700 but we have made a habit of...read article: Real-time Forex Prices and Charts.
UK Forex Spread Trading, updated 01-Feb-08
UK Forex Spread Trading: FX markets are absolutely comatose at the moment and we are trading and re-trading over the same ranges. The pound is pretty much...read article: UK Forex Spread Trading.
Forex January Spread Betting, updated 18-Jan-08
FX markets remain peaceful with the Dollar and Pound continuing to recoup some of the recent losses. The Sterling/Yen cross is now hovering just below the 211.90 support/resistance at a spread of...read article: Forex January Spread Betting.
Forex Trading Online, updated 21-Dec-07
Find out where you can Trade FX Online for free plus your FX trading questions answered, tips on getting free FX charts, real time prices and...read article: Forex Trading Online.
Forex Futures Trading, updated 07-Dec-07
Where to trade Forex Futures plus updated Forex trading news and the most popular Forex questions answered....read article: Forex Futures Trading.
Forex Broker, updated 23-Nov-07
Where to find free Forex Brokers plus regular Forex financial trading news as well as the most popular Forex questions answered....read article: Forex Broker.
Forex Platform, updated 09-Nov-07
Where to find free Forex Platforms plus updated Forex trading news as well as the most popular Forex queries answered....read article: Forex Platform.
Forex Software, updated 26-Oct-07
Where to find free Forex Software information plus updated Forex trading news as well as the most popular Forex queries answered....read article: Forex Software.
Forex Prices, updated 04-Feb-08
Where to find free Forex Prices plus updated Forex news as well as your top Forex questions answered....read article: Forex Prices.
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