Forex Spread Trading December 2008
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Forex Spread Trading
A regular Forex spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Forex spread trading update, click here.
FX Spread Betting, 18 Dec 08
The pound has fallen a minimum of 25% against even the weakest of the other major currencies this year and in the same period our Manufacturing output has actually fallen.
...and the currency markets continue to hammer the pound this morning as the momentum of the move lower seems almost impossible to stop. EUR/GBP is at a new all time high of £0.9346-£0.9348 and everyone seems in a big hurry to get to £1.0000.
The precipitous move does of course add to the problems for the BOE who apparently did not want to cut rates further because of the impact on the currency. They still, even after all these years, do not seem to understand currency markets.
Traders will buy or sell currencies in anticipation of the next rate move not in reaction to the last (aside from the immediate aftermath of a decision). If the perception is that rates are going lower then a currency will be sold. Better to get the rate moves out of the way sooner rather than hang around and watch your currency get smashed up.
Pretty soon talk will turn to ECB rate cuts and we may well then see just as sharp a move against the Euro.
FX Spread Betting, 17 Dec 08
Currency markets added to the break out mentioned yesterday, helped it must be said by the rate cut. Sterling is now more than 11¢ above the lows of last week and the cross has now moved over the high of the previous rally, $1.5535.
As mentioned, the traders currently under pressure are the weak sterling shorts who got into the game late (on the back of some rather exuberant press and analyst forecasts). While the pound may well hit parity versus the dollar at some point it is current the GBP / USD sellers who are feeling the pain and being forced into position covering.
Conversely the Euro continues to strengthen against all comers and the pressure remains for the moment on its favour. When minds turn to the ECB response to the Fed and the BOE cuts this may reverse. For the time being, unless you already have a position, it would be wise to sit back and watch events.
FX Spread Betting, 16 Dec 08
Punters seem to have read quite a bit into the demise of the pound.
As my comment of last week warned...when even the newspapers start to talk about extreme price move potential then that is probably the moment to start taking profits and/or trading in the other direction.
GBP / USD rallied over 300 points yesterday and actually broke up through the medium term downward trend line. This may open the way up for a move towards $1.6700 as weak short positions get squeezed out.
The Euro continues to grind higher versus both Sterling and the Dollar and it too broke above the six month downward trend. Returns on the Euro versus everyone else are quite surprising given that the euro economy is (overall) doing reasonably.
The ECB will probably cut along with the BoE. With rates now down at levels unheard of in anyone’s living memory you have to wonder that there must be some impetus to the upside. In conversation with three of the brokers over the past few weeks it seems that for the first time this year there is quite a bit of medium/small fund raising managing to get done. Some of this is, to be fair, distressed borrowing but some of it is new money for new business. Are these the green shoots we have all been waiting for?
FX Spread Betting, 15 Dec 08
All the chatter about record lows recorded by sterling last week has led to a temporary halt in the currency’s weakness as we hover around the £0.8950 (€1.1173). Looking at the chart it’ll be a brave man who calls the bottom of sterling’s slide. However, as we saw with the dollar this year, currencies can turn their fortunes around just as quickly as they are destroyed.
Price Update:
- GBP / USD closed last week up $0.007 at $1.482 (up 0.47%)
- USD / JPY closed last week down -¥1.8 at ¥91.2 (down -1.94%)
- EUR / USD closed last week up $0.058 at $1.331 (up 4.56%)
- EUR / GBP closed last week up £0.026 at £0.896 (up 2.99%)
Also see:
Financial Spreads >>
"With FinancialSpreads.com you get all the normal
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FX Spread Betting, 12 Dec 08
The pound is giving up even more value this morning as we hit yet another all time low versus the Euro. The GBP / EUR spread is now down at £1.1185 - £1.1189.
For those attempting to find a bottom, the last few months have been a painful experience and traders seem to be getting in on the move in ever greater numbers.
Forex markets are well known for huge trend moves (albeit with big reversals) and the current demise of the pound is a good example of this. This comment has been consistently bearish on Sterling for over a year and whilst it is tempting to continue along on the same vein I am also mindful that the plight of the pound has now caught the attention of mainstream journalists.
Analysts (who have been strangely silent until recently) are suddenly falling over themselves to call for ever lower levels. Cynicism always raises it head I am afraid and I generally feel that once everyone is calling for a move it probably means that the majority of the trend is already over.
FX Spread Betting, 11 Dec 08
Much of the news in the papers today has been concerning the weakness in the pound...as the value of the currency reaches a new all time world low.
Obviously the people who really matter in these instances do not believe a word of our political masters one bit. Think of Mr G. Brown of London and “we are better placed that everyone else to weather the downturn”.
At some point the currency will return to stability. However, this is unlikely until such time as UK assets become such good value to foreign buyers that the flow of Sterling sales turns around.
As mentioned yesterday, though, there was a good buying opportunity in Sterling versus the dollar as the support at $1.4660 looked to be holding. For once the Financial Spreads accounts appeared to be reading the runes and there was some solid long building yesterday. And again in the early hours of this morning. With the pound / dollar spread now at $1.4961 - $1.4964 clients are patting themselves on the back.
FX Spread Betting, 10 Dec 08
The markets that seem to be taking the brunt at the moment are the currencies, particularly Sterling. Trading versus the Euro and the Dollar has seen some solid Sterling buying in recent days as dealers struggle to believe that the ‘good old pound’ can really slump quite so badly.
Unfortunately for the bulls (whilst today's action is in their favour) the momentum is still definitely Sterling bearish with virtually every momentum and trendline indicator still showing renewed weakness.
Of course the beauty about charting is in how often it is complete ******** and the perversity of markets is often in the delight with which they turn against perceived wisdom.
The pound has had a grim time of it and may have further to fall but there is a good chance that there may be a little rally to chase out weak shorts who have only recently joined the ride down.
Versus the dollar the $1.4660 level could prove crucial as even though we have traded through this level in the last month we have never actually managed to close below it. While we remain above this mark there is the potential for a sharp rally.
Financial Spreads >>
"With FinancialSpreads.com you get all the normal
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Financial Spreads review.
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FX Spread Betting, 9 Dec 08
The immediate effect of the President elect’s words was, not surprisingly, a weakening in the dollar but this now seems to have played out and Sterling is once again the whipping boy on the exchanges.
Versus the Euro, the Pound is looking particularly sick as we fail to make any headway in attempts to escape from the current £1.15 region. In recent days the cross has made a series of attempts to move back above £1.1625 and to get below £1.1450, all to no avail but, it must be said that, given how far the currency has fallen in the last year you would have thought that there might be the odd buyer out there.
The fact that Sterling keeps slipping from ledge to ledge with no real attempts to step ‘up’ does not bode well for longer term stability.
Virtually every chart you look at shows the pound in long term decline and now that the artificial prop of ‘high’ interest rates has been removed it is difficult to see what would tempt a long term buyer to contemplate a Sterling long.
FX Spread Betting, 8 Dec 08
- GBP / USD closed last week down -$0.058 at $1.475 (down -3.78%)
- USD / JPY closed last week down -¥2.4 at ¥93.0 (down -2.52%)
- EUR / USD closed last week up $0.005 at $1.273 (up 0.39%)
- EUR / GBP closed last week up £0.043 at £0.87 (up 5.2%)
Financial Spreads >>
"With FinancialSpreads.com you get all the normal
advantages of Spread Betting plus..." >> read
Financial Spreads review.
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Forex Spread Trading December 2008' by DB, updated 19-Dec-08
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FX market update: Financial Spreads clients remain bearish of the single currency so they'll be hoping for this little spurt of strength to be short lived and...read article: Forex Spread Trading December 2010.
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Forex Spread Betting September 2010, updated 10-Sep-10
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Forex Spread Trading August 2010, updated 27-Aug-10
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Forex Spread Betting August 2010, updated 13-Aug-10
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Forex Spread Trading July 2010, updated 30-Jul-10
FX market update: Despite the worse than expected UK consumer data this morning the Pound is the star so far in the session with Cable looking content above the...read article: Forex Spread Trading July 2010.
Forex Spread Betting July 2010, updated 16-Jul-10
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Forex Spread Bets June 2010, updated 02-Jul-10
FX market update: The Yen remains the strong man of the majors, which appears slightly odd given the country's fiscal position, and the Euro/Yen cross is still...read article: Forex Spread Bets June 2010.
Forex Spread Trading June 2010, updated 18-Jun-10
FX market update: FX markets are hammering at the Dollar for the fourth or fifth day in a row but the moves do seem to be treading water a bit...read article: Forex Spread Trading June 2010.
Forex Spread Betting June 2010, updated 04-Jun-10
FX market update: Clearly many of those FX spread trading are sitting on the sidelines ahead of NFP but it's difficult to see if there's any shock to the upside might that...read article: Forex Spread Betting June 2010.
Forex Spread Trading May 2010, updated 21-May-10
FX market update: On the currency front our comment yesterday that if the Euro was not moving in the accepted direction then the opposite was likely to happen proved rather more prophetic than expected...read article: Forex Spread Trading May 2010.
Forex Spread Betting May 2010, updated 07-May-10
FX market update: The Euro has now almost reached the longer term target for the Bears of around $1.2350/1.2450, mentioned way back last week when we were...read article: Forex Spread Betting May 2010.
Forex Spread Trading April 2010, updated 23-Apr-10
FX market update: Currency markets are the place to be at the moment with the Euro continuing to weaken under the glare of all its woes. In reality it must be admitted that...read article: Forex Spread Trading April 2010.
Forex Spread Betting April 2010, updated 09-Apr-10
FX market update: The EUR/USD spread bounced again from the levels last seen at the end of March just below $1.3300 where it recovered back to as high as...read article: Forex Spread Betting April 2010.
Forex Spread Trading March 2010, updated 26-Mar-10
FX market update: Currency markets continued to be Dollar favourable yesterday but this morning has seen something of a pull back as the Euro has recouped...read article: Forex Spread Trading March 2010.
Forex Spread Betting March 2010, updated 12-Mar-10
FX market update: Cable staged another mini recovery yesterday capturing the $1.50 level again and this morning is continuing its rally, sitting at...read article: Forex Spread Betting March 2010.
Forex Spread Trading February 2010, updated 26-Feb-10
FX market update: Cracks have appeared in the recovery and FX markets in particular have shown alarming moves that indicate they are preparing for...read article: Forex Spread Trading February 2010.
Forex Spread Betting February 2010, updated 12-Feb-10
FX market update: On the currency markets, the Pound and Euro both found support yesterday pushing well away from recent lows to climb quite strongly through...read article: Forex Spread Betting February 2010.
Forex Spread Trading January 2010, updated 29-Jan-10
FX market update: On the currency front, the Euro has been weakening again, finally dropping below $1.40 yesterday. The currency is...read article: Forex Spread Trading January 2010.
Forex Spread Betting January 2010, updated 15-Jan-10
FX market update: The US retail sales didn't help the Dollar much and it drifted back to the ¥91.00 mark against the Yen. With the rate at...read article: Forex Spread Betting January 2010.
Forex Spread Bets December 2009, updated 01-Jan-10
FX market update: Interesting movements in the Forex spreads markets are just about the only thing worth focussing on at the moment. Yesterday the Dollar waxed and waned, managing a...read article: Forex Spread Bets December 2009.
Forex Spread Trading December 2009, updated 18-Dec-09
FX market update: The momentum against Cable was compounded by some negative UK retail sales which flew in the face of recent reports from retailers like...read article: Forex Spread Trading December 2009.
Forex Spread Betting December 2009, updated 04-Dec-09
FX market update: The Euro managed to exactly match our commented range of $1.5140 to $1.5040/60 in yesterday's session. It traded at...read article: Forex Spread Betting December 2009.
Forex Spread Trading November 2009, updated 20-Nov-09
FX market update: Currency markets are mixed this morning but largely in favour of the Dollar. Cable is heading lower as once again it fails to test...read article: Forex Spread Trading November 2009.
Forex Spread Betting November 2009, updated 06-Nov-09
FX market update: Currency markets are turning a bit Dollar unfriendly once more with the Euro regaining the $1.4860 level. The Euro had been...read article: Forex Spread Betting November 2009.
Forex Spread Trading October 2009, updated 23-Oct-09
FX market update: Trading continues to be very contained in the EUR/USD cross with the $1.49 level seeming to hold an irresistible attraction. Last night it seemed that...read article: Forex Spread Trading October 2009.
Forex Spread Betting October 2009, updated 09-Oct-09
FX market update: Mervyn King muttered about a weak currency helping exporters but I have to say that this commentator is yet to see any evidence of...read article: Forex Spread Betting October 2009.
Forex Spread Trading September 2009, updated 25-Sep-09
FX market update: The weakness of the Pound versus other majors has merely been reflected by the Dollars own lack of strength. Versus the Euro the cross seems unable to...read article: Forex Spread Trading September 2009.
Forex Spread Betting September 2009, updated 11-Sep-09
FX market update: As mentioned many times over the last few months the Dollar continues to suffer from what looks like benign neglect from the...read article: Forex Spread Betting September 2009.
Forex Spread Betting August 2009, updated 28-Aug-09
FX market update: The pound/dollar range at $1.62 to $1.66 eventually held the upper hand and after testing the markets below $1.62 the volume attraction of this range reasserted its pull. In truth the opening hours today have...read article: Forex Spread Betting August 2009.
Forex Spread Trading August 2009, updated 14-Aug-09
FX market update: On the currency front the pound made a big rebound from the lows with the Yen (especially) falling back after a strong run. The sharp spike lower in GBP/JPY in a frantic...read article: Forex Spread Trading August 2009.
Forex Spread Trading July 2009, updated 31-Jul-09
FX market update: The equity market rally though took its toil as investors sold the dollar in favour of equities. Sterling did well out of...read article: Forex Spread Trading July 2009.
Forex Spread Betting July 2009, updated 17-Jul-09
FX market update: The dollar is making a little ground back against sterling. Rather like the equity markets there is a lack of direction and a real tussle between the
...read article: Forex Spread Betting July 2009.
Forex Spread Bets June 2009, updated 03-Jul-09
FX market update: Sterling is also managing to sit tight against some serious tests of support. Cable has drifted sideways through the short term upward trend line which is marginally worrying and this may give cause for a move back into the $1.58 to $1.60 region. However sometimes trend lines just lose their...read article: Forex Spread Bets June 2009.
Forex Spread Trading June 2009, updated 19-Jun-09
FX market update: Forex markets must have read my comment yesterday as the pound made an almost carbon copy move to Wednesday's price action. The total net effect over the last three days has been...read article: Forex Spread Trading June 2009.
Forex Spread Betting June 2009, updated 05-Jun-09
FX market update: Even though the GBP/USD spread betting market has fallen from a high of $1.6670 on Wednesday to the current $1.6050 there have been some big rallies amidst the 6 cent fall. Clients have been trying to buy into...read article: Forex Spread Betting June 2009.
Forex Spread Trading May 2009, updated 22-May-09
FX market update: The same happened to GBP/EUR which saw a very sharp fall yesterday morning, but recovered afterwards throughout the rest of the day. At the moment though, the euro is...read article: Forex Spread Trading May 2009.
Forex Spread Betting May 2009, updated 08-May-09
FX market: Sterling's good recent run came to an abrupt end after the BoE announced its next tranche of asset purchases. The market was taken a little by surprise as many were expecting the Bank not...read article: Forex Spread Betting May 2009.
Forex Spread Trading April 2009, updated 24-Apr-09
FX market: EUR/USD is back above $1.3000, currently at $1.3070 with the Euro making a bit of ground on Sterling as well as GBP/EUR heads back towards...read article: Forex Spread Trading April 2009.
Forex Spread Betting April 2009, updated 10-Apr-09
FX market: With EUR/USD, our spread betting accounts are very much two way with buyers matching sellers and in truth it is difficult to argue that ...read article: Forex Spread Betting April 2009.
Forex Spread Trading March 2009, updated 27-Mar-09
FX market update: FX markets are still wary of the recent indication that the US might not be opposed to the creation of a 'Super Currency' run by the IMF, the mere mention of which sent the dollar...read article: Forex Spread Trading March 2009.
Forex Spread Betting March 2009, updated 13-Mar-09
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Forex Spread Trading February 2009, updated 27-Feb-09
FX market update: Against the Euro, the pound seems to have settled into a £1.1000 to £1.1500 range...read article: Forex Spread Trading February 2009.
Forex Spread Betting February 2009, updated 13-Feb-09
FX market: Virtually every major market, having tried valiantly to break out of the current trading ranges, is now pretty much where they closed on Wednesday evening. GBP/USD had a solid look at...read article: Forex Spread Betting February 2009.
Forex Spread Bets January 2009, updated 31-Jan-09
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Forex Spread Trading January 2009, updated 16-Jan-09
FX market: Strange moves overnight in the currency markets will not have pleased many as the Pound ?took off? in the first few hours of trading opening some...read article: Forex Spread Trading January 2009.
Forex Spread Betting January 2009, updated 02-Jan-09
FX market update: the 'dollar bulls' remain positive about the outlook for the dollar as they argue it could replace the Yen as the new carry trade currency. This also indicates that the FX markets are preparing for...read article: Forex Spread Betting January 2009.
Forex Spread Trading December 2008, updated 19-Dec-08
FX market: The pound has fallen a minimum of 25% against even the weakest of the other major currencies this year and in the same period our...read article: Forex Spread Trading December 2008.
Forex Spread Betting December 2008, updated 05-Dec-08
FX market update: On the Currency front the cut in rates had little effect, there was a brief fall in the Euro and the Pound followed by a short covering rally and now we...read article: Forex Spread Betting December 2008.
Forex Spread Trading November 2008, updated 21-Nov-08
FX market: The GBP / USD spread is now $1.5082 - $1.5085 and, to be honest, there is little in the way of resistance or support around the current price. The short term falling trend line is now at...read article: Forex Spread Trading November 2008.
Forex Spread Betting November 2008, updated 07-Nov-08
FX market update: The volatility in the GBP / USD market is becoming ever more extreme with the last eleven trading days averaging over 5¢ a day high/low range (3%). This variation represents a...read article: Forex Spread Betting November 2008.
Forex Spread Trading October 2008, updated 26-Oct-08
FX market: Traders looking for some kind of support have seen their hopes wiped away as the pound and euro plumb depths not seen for...read article: Forex Spread Trading October 2008.
Forex Spread Betting October 2008, updated 10-Oct-08
FX market update: Trading in the Forex markets has been just as violent as the equities as the pound has fallen dramatically out of favour versus the Yen and Dollar. It appeared, briefly, that confidence in...read article: Forex Spread Betting October 2008.
Forex Spread Trading September 2008, updated 26-Sep-08
FX market: The Forex markets must have been reading my comment yesterday as Cable failed at almost exactly the resistance of $1.8650 and then moved down to attack the support at $1.8450. Once this had...read article: Forex Spread Trading September 2008.
Forex Spread Betting September 2008, updated 12-Sep-08
FX market update: On the FX spread betting front the inability of the Pound, Euro or Yen to hold onto the gains versus the dollar do not bode well in coming sessions. The currency markets are settling in to the new ranges caused by...read article: Forex Spread Betting September 2008.
Forex Spread Trade August 2008, updated 29-Aug-08
FX market update: The Euro / Dollar rate is off its lows this morning around the $1.4693 mark and continues to test...read article: Forex Spread Trade August 2008.
Forex Spread Betting August 2008, updated 15-Aug-08
FX market update: We are now sitting just above the massive 2006 GBP / USD support level at around...read article: Forex Spread Betting August 2008.
Forex Spread Trading July 2008, updated 01-Aug-08
FX market update: In the Forex spread betting markets the dollar and yen are looking to make gains after the...read article: Forex Spread Trading July 2008.
Forex Spread Betting July 2008, updated 18-Jul-08
FX market update: In the Forex Spread Betting world Cable continues to hover around the $2.00 dollar mark but the Euro has, for the time being, given up on the...read article: Forex Spread Betting July 2008.
Forex Financial Spread Bet July 2008, updated 04-Jul-08
Forex market update: The weak dollar is causing much of the recent commodity spike and the laissez faire attitude of the US administration to the value of the Greenback is coming back to haunt them in the shape of...read article: Forex Financial Spread Bet July 2008.
Forex Financial Spread Trading June 2008, updated 20-Jun-08
Forex market update: Every time the pound looks to be in danger of a fall to below $1.94 buyers come in and take it back up to around $1.98 to $2.00. Cable has been in a falling wedge formation since...read article: Forex Financial Spread Trading June 2008.
Forex Financial Spread Betting June 2008, updated 06-Jun-08
Forex market update: The pound was dragged a little in the Euros wake yesterday but even so lost over a Euro cent in the post Trichet move. The GBP / USD spread is currently at $1.9581 - $1.9584 this morning and is still at the lower end of the recent trading ranges. Any clients who bought into...read article: Forex Financial Spread Betting June 2008.
Forex Spread Bet May 2008, updated 23-May-08
Forex market update: Sterling had one of its surging days yesterday moving higher against every other major currency. We have seen some very heavy buying in the Pound and Euro vs the lower interest rate currencies (JPY, CHF, USD) in the last few sessions as traders...read article: Forex Spread Bet May 2008.
Forex Trading May 2008, updated 09-May-08
Forex market update: Unfortunately the FX markets, which seemed to be selling the Pound and Euro in anticipation of a rate cut from both the ECB and MPC only reversed for the Euro and not for the Pound. Sterling is now weakening again against all the majors and yet another attack on the...read article: Forex Trading May 2008.
Forex Trading April 2008, updated 25-Apr-08
Forex market update: Looking at the Forex Spread Betting markets the Pound actually managed a good day for a change as the Euro and Yen suffered. Of course the real winner was the US Dollar. Cable is now at the bottom of it recent range with dealers probing for any weakness below...read article: Forex Trading April 2008.
Forex Spread Bets April 2008, updated 11-Apr-08
Forex market trading update: The dollar is getting a knock this morning weaker against the majority of other currencies. Sterling attempted to make some sort of recovery against the euro yesterday dipping below the £0.8000 mark. However, since...read article: Forex Spread Bets April 2008.
Forex March Spread Trading, updated 28-Mar-08
Forex markets: On the FX markets the Dollar continues to hold it own for the time being but the pound seems to have hit something of a brick wall overnight. All the majors are unchanged except for the pound which is down 80 pips against the greenback (under $2 again)...and is at a new all time low versus the Euro at £0.7894 which means that we are now over 15%...read article: Forex March Spread Trading.
Real-time Forex Prices and Charts, updated 15-Feb-08
Forex pricing information: On the currency trading front we are very quiet and with no news expected today it may well remain that way for the early trading session. GBP / USD looks to be quite happy at levels near to $1.9700 but we have made a habit of...read article: Real-time Forex Prices and Charts.
UK Forex Spread Trading, updated 01-Feb-08
UK Forex Spread Trading: FX markets are absolutely comatose at the moment and we are trading and re-trading over the same ranges. The pound is pretty much...read article: UK Forex Spread Trading.
Forex January Spread Betting, updated 18-Jan-08
FX markets remain peaceful with the Dollar and Pound continuing to recoup some of the recent losses. The Sterling/Yen cross is now hovering just below the 211.90 support/resistance at a spread of...read article: Forex January Spread Betting.
Forex Trading Online, updated 21-Dec-07
Find out where you can Trade FX Online for free plus your FX trading questions answered, tips on getting free FX charts, real time prices and...read article: Forex Trading Online.
Forex Futures Trading, updated 07-Dec-07
Where to trade Forex Futures plus updated Forex trading news and the most popular Forex questions answered....read article: Forex Futures Trading.
Forex Broker, updated 23-Nov-07
Where to find free Forex Brokers plus regular Forex financial trading news as well as the most popular Forex questions answered....read article: Forex Broker.
Forex Platform, updated 09-Nov-07
Where to find free Forex Platforms plus updated Forex trading news as well as the most popular Forex queries answered....read article: Forex Platform.
Forex Software, updated 26-Oct-07
Where to find free Forex Software information plus updated Forex trading news as well as the most popular Forex queries answered....read article: Forex Software.
Forex Prices, updated 04-Feb-08
Where to find free Forex Prices plus updated Forex news as well as your top Forex questions answered....read article: Forex Prices.
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